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Peak Theories' Short-Term Views On Gold

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Abigail Doolittle, of Peak Theories Research, shares her latest updated short-term outlook on the price of gold. Doolittle's conclusion: "Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal. In the long-term, however, gold’s primary and bullish uptrend appears to remain very much in place." Of course, for those who day trade gold, the broken upward channel we pointed out some time ago was the indicator to watch in taking profits. For everyone else, who believes that the past two weeks' weakness is merely a blip in an otherwise relentless march by the world's central banks to reflate their problems through currency printing and devaluation, the long-term outlook is certainly far more important.

In summary:

  • With gold below $1,353 per ounce, it appears to have begun a nascent trend of lower highs and lower lows or the topping process that I’ve been writing about.
  • This suggests that gold may continue to move down and especially with gold slightly below its 100 DMA of about $1,347 per ounce.
  • In turn, this may suggest that gold will fulfill its small Bear Flag with a target of about $1,330 per ounce and even the Diamond Top pattern with a target of about $1,284 per ounce.
  • If gold hits that target of $1,284 per ounce, there is a good chance gold will retrace the entire ascent leading to the Diamond Top or decline to about $1,155 per ounce.
  • Such a decline would be consistent with a pull down to gold’s long-term trendline which, ironically, will strengthen this long-term uptrend.
  • Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal.
  • In the long-term, however, gold’s primary and bullish uptrend appears to remain very much in place.

Full video:

 


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Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

"Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal."

Ya think?

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

gold is collapsing! Sell it before it goes down to 200 an ounce!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

200 an ounce gold would be a wet dream yo!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment philgramm
philgramm's picture

I'd be able to buy 6 times as much.  24 ounces instead of 4 ounces?  definitely a wet dream.  Nadler can pick up his NFLX and AAPL.  

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I really don't care what this broad says in the video. Please read this update. I have a high level of confidence in it:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/darkest-before-dawn.html

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:43 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

You fcking troll. Telling me to buy at $1430 !!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Talk about the pot calling the porcelain black.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment greenbear
greenbear's picture

Thanks for the chuckle!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

GoldFaNFger,

You just do not get it do you?.

$1430, $2000.00, the price in Fiat is irrelevant.

When the Show starts,you will be kicking yourself in the ass for selling, and wishing you could get it at $5k.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment TheJudge2012
TheJudge2012's picture

If you want to buy high again then wait until next month.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

Turd:  Love your posts, generally, but on this one, I don't think "the broad" is that far off from where you are.  She is talking only short term and intermediate term, at most.  And she is talking about a $1258 bottom on this pullback, with a slight chance of dipping to $1150 or so.  None of that is a surprise.  It is a standard sort of pullback necessary to consolidate the long term run up to levels you foresee.  Gold will reach your levels, and possibly within your timeframe, but this pullback will take gold closer to $1250 in the short term.  When it hits $1250, it is time to buy.

NOW, to my single, fundamental question: do we buy ONLY physical PMs or is it safe to dip into paper PMs (e.g., AGQ, UGL, GLD, SLV) when we buy this dip?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

I would say so. That's what I do anyways. The paper goes down with the physical, so when I want to buy more CEF, then I wait for a downdraft. 

~Misstrial

PS: I didn't junk you, btw. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Wat,

Even if she's correct or close, also the Turdmeister(IS), your still basically looking at $1,300.00+ gold w/prems.

So how HUGE a drop is it really?,granted if you want to add to your holdings, a $100.00 pick up is great, and I will snag some.

IF it can be found,whoever wants to add, start holding the real deal, better be CASH rich, and a fast SOB.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment txapela
txapela's picture

when shit starts hitting the fan, and i mean seriously hitting the fan, sell all paper and buy into closed funds of PMs or PMs proper.

 

GLD and SLV have custodians for their stuff, HSBC and JPM respectively. And most of their stuff is lent to them either ways. I mean, most of the GLD gold belongs to the Bank of England, who in turn get equivalent market value in terms of pounds or euros or $$$ for loaning their physical to GLD, who in turn gives it to HSBC to store. lol.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

I like your blog, TF. Only thing is, when I see "TF" I think of well, Ticker Forum...

In any event, if the U.S. Mint halts production of gold or silver eagles, buffaloes, AS THEY HAVE IN THE RECENT PAST, then whether or not prices have lowered won't make any difference if you're not able to get these coins.

Obviously you can buy Krugerrands or Philharmonics etc instead, however you won't get the tax benefits of Eagles.

~Misstrial

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:38 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Unlikely.  The premium for physical would probably be $2000 a toz at that point, and even then, it will be hard to source.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

when you finish jerking off return the magazine to Dad

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

UR so kewl.  You don't use punctuation and doesn't afraid of anything.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

Cashed my ZSL options and sold puts on SLW today.Play it right and you can ring the register on up and down days.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

gold,

Sorry, but your really getting to be a PITA.

Do they have an FRN Board you can join?.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:44 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

highly reco APMEX.com for those looking to get into the physical during this sale by JPM......

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Same as anything else out there, look at any of the totaly manipulated markets and try to find the 'safe haven', good luck. Its all manipulated BS and who knows when the wheels will come flying off but I'll take a safe full of silver and gold over anything else right now.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

When is a statement like that not true?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Gigliola Cinquetti
Gigliola Cinquetti's picture

Never , it's called a tautology . always true , alas totally meaningless

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

OT, I had sold a PUT (it appears in my Orders tab) but it has not been updated in my transaction history -- it has never been delayed this way in the past. The PUT price has not increased since my trade -- I am wondering if my brokerage firm is front running me to the extent of buying my PUT with hope of flipping it higher and so has kept my transaction pending and hence not updated my transaction history.

Would appreciate any thoughts on this situation from the trading community.. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

I'm no expert, but this doesn't sound right to me. Unless you sold with limit/stop conditions, or you were trying to sell enormous volume, your order should have been executed nearly instantly. The market maker in those options (who is not necessarily your broker) has many ways to screw you, but holding up your order more than a few seconds isn't likely.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

Agree.

~Misstrial

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

Could be, could be....who's your broker? (Hope its not OptionMonster or TradeMonster).

My RIA told me this goes on all the time with Options trading.Traders can see what your trade is and up the price or take an opposing position to your disadvantage.

Its the Najarian brothers.

~Misstrial

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Who is this babe with the business suit on? 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

"Watch out for the near-term, the mid-term, middle-far-term, far-out-middle-term, and don't forget to cover your a$$ in the meantime."

Pretty scarry gibberish, if you think of it. Back to the riot chanel.

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

So many to choose from: Tunisia, Bangladesh...

Oooh, how about Mexico's relentless rise in narco-related murders and civilian deaths.

Or the unwinnable wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Reminds me of the old Steve Martin bit about smoking:

"I would only smoke it in the late evening. Oh, occasionally the early evening, but usually the late evening - or the mid-evening. Just the early evening, midevening and late evening. Occasionally, early afternoon, early mid-afternoon, or perhaps the late-midafternoon. Oh, sometimes the early-mid-late-early morning. . . But never at dusk! Never at dusk, I would never do that"

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment drswhaley
drswhaley's picture

Who is this Doolittle, and does she have a doctorate degree, and if so, in what?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

She was the singer from American Idol a couple of years ago that looked like Shrek's donkey.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Still chuckling over that comment!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Arius
Arius's picture

i thought you guys were serious...thought perhaps, some former "star" talking about monetary issues...who knows what the next tactic will be...i mean really when is about gold nothing would suprise me - anything could happen

so I went to watch the video (of course did watch all the talk of the "expert") - then i too chuckled at the American idol comment...she could make a good potential Idol candidate assuming the show is still on by the time she is broke and looking for smt else...americans getting bored to voting their own pop star

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Way OT, but pladiozow,your Avatar is killing me!!!!

Between RT, and you, my concentration, and reading skills decline precipitously.

(PS;Where did you find it?, LOL).

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Strider52
Strider52's picture

meh, his is OK, I guess...

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

If she does it's not in acoustics or focusing a camera.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Who cares? A hot chick who can talk about gold: Does it get any better than that?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment metastar
metastar's picture

If she diggs gold, she must be a gold digger.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Hot chicks like gold. They like diamonds better.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Those chicks need to learn about divisibility.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Oh they know about divisibility real well.  When the smoke clears and the dividing has been done, there you are sitting on the curb with nothing while she is taking a bubble bath in what used to be your house.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment 1223pm
1223pm's picture

There is nothing like Physical once you have your hands on it. no turning back.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laO91yhxobc

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:08 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Its because they do not know any better.

A 6-8 Carat CZ can get you a long way.LOL

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If she had a doctorate degree, then I'd immediately ignore her.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:11 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

I bet if she took her top off you wouldn't ignore her....

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

It would likely get me to watch longer than 15 seconds--but maybe not.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment ThePermabear
ThePermabear's picture

I pulled her Bio from her website, Peak Theories Research . . .

Abigail Doolittle started Peak Theories Research in May 2009. She has 12 years of experience in the financial services industry. Abigail decided to devote herself fully to PTR and her passion for technical analysis by leaving Hugh Johnson Advisors at the end of 2010. While at HJA, Abigail was the firm's Director of Business Development while also having been a Portfolio Manager at the firm. Prior to HJA, she spent 6 years at the former First Albany Capital as an institutional sales person and a research product manager. She started her career on Wall Street with Morgan Stanley’s real estate investment banking department. Abigail graduated from Colgate University with a degree in philosophy

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Hugh Johnson, for real?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment philgramm
philgramm's picture

I heard she left cuz he used to always Bang Dae Ho

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

from their website: Hugh Johnson Advisors does one thing and we do it exceptionally well.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 20:20 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

no one with huge johnsons need any advice....

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:56 | Link to Comment sheeple
sheeple's picture

former MS IB analyst and PM with some other boutique i think

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

In summary: Ignore the Noise!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Your avatar trumps your comment.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Does'nt it trump ALL content?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

It's a refreshing pair of large knockers indeed.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:50 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

They are a little saggy for my liking.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

It's a time delay thing, and you have to know when it's time!!!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

They have definitely gone through the lower support level.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

You R one VERY picky dude.........I would love to see the rest of that model.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Strider52
Strider52's picture

My thoughts exactly. I think her left one is Won Hung Lo.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:50 | Link to Comment outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

+1

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

... "bermuda triangle" always trumps "a pair" .

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment arkady
arkady's picture

Gold broke through support today, short term volatility is to be expected.  Same with silver.

 

This seems reasonable based on technicals.  Long term though, nothing has changed.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Bankster bullshit.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Holding steady.

Austerity and higher interest rates in Brazil, China might give comfort to inflation

But the Fed is on a one way trip. Big physical support for gold around $1317.

More debt crises unavoidable. Hu Jintao is just here to secure his collateral.

 

"After the drop in gold and silver today, King World News contacts out of London have confirmed massive physical purchase orders on gold between $1,308 and $1,317.  One source who wishes to remain anonymous stated, “It will take a massive amount of physical gold to take out those levels.  You can have shenanigans in the paper market, but there is an underlying physical market here in London and that is where the floor appears to be for now.”  Oct. 10, 2010 H.Hendry, KWN

 

Has that changed?

.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

No matter, if it holds there, your still at $1400.00 Gold.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Options expiration next week.  The COMEX boys are running scared.  Record numbers are standing for delivery in a month when there are traditionally few deliveries.

Just buy physical, and ignore the idiots.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cue RainbowTrader with another paper PM comment in 3....2.....

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

+1

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Oh yeah, like you know what you're doing?

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

So everyone knows, this is one of the idiots I'm talking about.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Obama needs to appoint a Relationship Facilitator Czar to get you two back together.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Gold needs to come way down before I buy anymore...silver has to hit 26.50 before I start another round.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Tyler,

The real story today in commodities is oil.  That inventory report.  The spot price is propped up right now at 89...but I do not think it will hold.  This COULD BE a real roll over day on oil.

Per the inventory report, some enterprising person [Ilene] is going to have to get inside that inventory reporting scheme...as I am sure it is as much BS as the BLS report is BS.

On gold...man...who knows where to BTFD?  Not me...

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

One thing I fail to understand is that why most analysts are recommending the purchase of Gold as a safe investment? The problem today is that the price of Gold is not derived by it's physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency.

The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.

The price of everything including Gold is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions due to some event that they have not anticipated or foreseen.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Because they understand that physical gold is the best way to preserve wealth when currency is debased. Silver is second to gold. This is something you fail to understand. You are looking at this market as a speculator and are therefore soon to be fleeced. About the time you figure out the difference between wealth and money- it will be too late buy any. Good luck!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:49 | Link to Comment philgramm
philgramm's picture

Have you read anything about monetary theory?  Do you understand that your fiat paper will go bust in your lifetime (unless you are on your deathbed as I write).  How about price suppression with paper gold and silver?  If you don't understand then read before you post.  We are speaking of wealth and value. Those things are very different from currency. I will use currency for everyday needs but my wealth will always be in PMs.  Good luck with your plan.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Hit the pawn shops If you know what your doing. Some of these guys rattle easy. I repeat - if you know what your doing - Nothing like getting a deal on a gold painted door stop.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

First the Tom DeMark sell signal, now this: Doolittle calling for a pull back in gold. It's all too much the bear.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:49 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

I'd rather have the naked short-term view.

Over at JSMineset, we get this from Alf Fields (1-18-11): "Gold has either already finished the correction or requires one minor drop below yesterday’s fixings to finish it."

http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/18/a-note-from-alf-fields/

I wonder if Alf would consider today's action a minor drop.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:58 | Link to Comment FaithEqualsZero
FaithEqualsZero's picture

Its dropped <2% since yesterdays close...big deal. BTFD!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Buy buy buy. Keep up the pressure.  Short term blah blah blah. Yeh since the banks can continue their naked short selling acivities, courtesy of the deep captured CFTC, the banks can continue on in their  fraud. I am sick of this shit.........But , just keep buying  and believe me, this fraud will not last.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

HPD--This appears to be a pretty normal sort of correction to consolidate the long-term bull.  Don't understand all the anger and nastiness and conspiracy theories.  One could keep buying--could have, in fact, at $1425--but it is advisable to buy on the pullback--at, say, $1250 or less--and make alot more money in the long term bull.  Small timers aren't going to put any pressure to move the market up anyway.  The market will correct, then drive upward, for a whole host of other reasons.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:10 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Until the power of the COMEX is destroyed the physical market will suffer not matter what the supply /demand equation tells us. Since the CFTC seems not to be able to deconstuct this facade, only time will tell. I figure it will happen one way or the other soon enough. All it takes is one big buyer demanding physical delivery and when this happens the dominoes fall, one by one, rapidly.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

HPD,

Was i dreaming?, I thought I read a blurb that Omama,laid the WORD on the CFTC,and said, JPM can do whatever it wants(again here).

Dream?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

$1155 would be lovely for adding another ounce or two to the stash.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Arius
Arius's picture

1095$ is even better....dream on....

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Thanks fo the advice Abigail you naughty little monkey... I think I want to spank you... in a good way

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment props2009
props2009's picture

Marc Faber Interview: Own Equities, Precious Metals and Farm Land and short government bonds. 

http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/marc-faber-interview-own-equities-p...

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

I have heard this for a long time from him. He touts farmland, but I don't see how one can practically buy farmland and make any use of it.  Are we supposed to buy it then farm it?  Rent it out to a farmer?  Try to get the government to pay us not to farm it?  Buy low and sell high?  Farmland is a great thing, but my experience with farmland is that he who buys 300 acres but lives in NYC has a hard time farming his land. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Here in Iowa, lease for $200-$300 acre, take your hands off. Share crop, 50-50 split the ins and outs. My recently deceased uncle Carl bought at $100/acre, left it to only daughter at $4000 + an acre. Always had money and no debt. Farmers ain't so dumb.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment romanko
romanko's picture

why limit yourself to conventional farming techniques; I just bought 80 acres and this spring I'll be planting orchard tress (fruit and nut) that will be the basis of a permaculture food forest - google it - you have to get past the trader-ROI mindset, the goal with farmland in this economic environment is owning a sustainable means of food production for yourself and your family, yes stock up on PM's and guns if you want, but to round out your preps you need land, at least 1 acre

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

Understood, but where is good farmland affordable?  I cannot find good farmland under $3000 per acre, and it is rare that a decent piece of land comes up for sale that is less than 40 acres.  Maybe I just have not found the right place.  Any suggestions?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

Watauga:

http://www.unitedcountry.com/FarmRanchAg

~Misstrial

PS: I didn't junk you, btw. Not sure why anyone would do so....

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I called gold's top a month ago and for free. She does look sweeter than me however.

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Go all in short, faggot.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

You get touchy when you lose dont you son?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Who's losing?  I'm up fourfold.  You're the moron that sold silver last month for $8 an ounce.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I sold AGQ Dec 7, 2010 at $155 having bot in August at $62--on margin. That my friend is a 3 bagger in 3 months.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:47 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Funny, since you said you sold silver coins on December 7th that you bought in 1995, and you claimed you only made a 100% profit.  Silver was around $4/oz in 1995.  That means you sold them for $8oz.

Hence, you are either a liar or a moron.  Or both.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:09 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I did sell silver coins on Dec 7. One may own more than one investment at a time or is that concept too complex for you?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You miss the point.  You said you made a 100% profit, which means you sold your silver for about 20% of the going rate.

Making you a retard, or a liar.  Or both.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I sold MS65 Morgan silver dollars on Dec 7, 2010. Yes they are silver. I sold them for $125 each. I made about 100% gain.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

This is the IRS.  May we have your Social Security Number, please?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:23 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Sales to coin dealers will generate a 1099 beginning next year. Don't imagine that will be a bullish tailwind before then.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Who's losing?  I'm up fourfold....

Keep your lies straight mosely.  You said your cost average for silver was $14 this past weekend.  

And on SeekingAlpha, you were all about GOLD, GOLD, GOLD - just another overly obnoxious gold bug who was never invested in silver and barely talked about silver. 

Here is your August 2010 post from there:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217852-rosenberg-gold-sell-off-is-a-buyi...

Your quote midway down the page:  ..."if you're in anything EXCEPT gold, you're in big trouble..." 

Ever since silver went parabolic these past few months, you've practically disappeared from SeekingAlpha, and have begun a new silver crusade here at ZH.

You may want to consider writing down your lies, in an effort to keep them straight.   

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:26 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

In other words, tmosley has his head so far up turd's ass that he's covered in shit up to his weewee?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

My initial silver investments are up fourfold.  My cost average is up 100%.

Nit-picking will get you nowhere.

I love gold, and talk about it all the time, but I happen to think silver is a better growth investment at the moment.  

But seriously, go fuck yourself.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 14:59 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

On seeking alpha you say you only buy physical. You dont margin. You cannot be up fourfold because you paid $14/oz. It's $26 today. You dont understand coins obviously because although investable coins contain gold or silver, their pricing is skewed from the spot PM by a variety of factors. I sold MS65 Morgan Silver dollars on Dec 7 at $125 each. You did not and the price is now lower. You don't understand PM ETFs either. ACG is the 2X Silver bull ETF. I made 300% in 3 months. You did not.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

There is a difference between initial investment price and cost average.  No matter how you look at it, I've made a lot of money, and I won't be missing the train because I decided to take "profits".

You were whining about how you only made 100% on your "silver coins", and now you backtrack and say it was because you were speculating in numismatic coins.  Did it ever strike you that THAT is your problem.  What fucking moron seriously expects to make money in numismatics?  Serious investors buy bullion, not something that is subject to the whims of individual buyers.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:11 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I pointed that out to him a week ago, but I don't think he understands that.  Probably asked for the Glenn Beck Special at Goldline.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

another pencil neck chimes in.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Only because I find it hard to believe that you were SOOOooo diversely invested in silver AND managed to sell on December 7th.  How omniscient!  Looks more like cherry picking a top off a chart when you're making shit up.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/monthly_graphs.plx

Dig up a post where you told us at the time (or anytime before this correction was underway) that you were getting out, and I will apologize and promptly commit seppeku. 

LIIiarrr!!!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I said coins are a crappy investment and they are absolutly horibble. 20% bid offer spreads. Illiquidity abounds, If you understood coins you would know that MS65 Morgan silver dollars are a small calculated step past silver eagles having a small numismatic interest yet still being as intensely liquid and fungible as the coin market allows. Factoring the spreads and illiquidity it will take YEARS to get a double in the best of markets AND there is no leverage with which to gin up the returns.

 Go fuck yourself dickhead

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

No. No. No.

You've also said your gains are 300% in another thread.  You've got fictitious numbers everywhere. And this past weekend you said that you thought silver was a better growth investment since December 2008.  Get your lies straight. 

You specifically said that being in anything except gold will be big trouble. Those are your words in August, when silver was already beginning to bust over $20. You made it clear that you were not invested in silver, or, if you were, it wasn't anything significant. 

Once silver became all the rage, your posts at SeekingAlpha went from 8/day to once every few weeks.  And you began a new crusade over here at ZeroHedge, claiming to have a 95/5 weighted portfolio towards silver and that you've added to it from every paycheck since Dec 2008.  

*LOL*

If rice goes parabolic, are you going to find a rice forum and tell everyone that you're 95% invested in rice?

Stop lying.  Just stop.  It's so obvious.  

 

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Turd mosley is sooo busted. HeHeHe

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I see, so it never occurred to you that I might have bought more since then, an action which raised by dollar cost average?  It also never occurred to you that I like both gold and silver, and that when I was talking about gold, I include silver under the same wing.  Find me one post where I said I didn't own silver over there.  ONE!

Honestly, boy, you really need to examine your life.  You seem to have some sort of a homosexual crush on me, because I knock you around and make you look like an idiot.  Chirst, you now seem to spend your hours trolling the internet, searching for posts by tmosley.  It's obsessive.  Guess what?  I don't swing that way.  As a homosexual masochist, you ought to just saunter down to the nearest gay bar that features a S&M element, and tell them to give you the works.  You can get your jollies while leaving the adults to talk about adult matters.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

All over seeking alpha with trolled spam. You are a sick person.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

It also never occurred to you that I like both gold and silver, and that when I was talking about gold, I include silver under the same wing...

Include silver under the same gold wing?  But you said that you were 95% in silver, and 5% in gold, and this was supposedly a strategy that you began in December 2008 with every paycheck. 

That's one strange wing. 

Give up mosely. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

It is mathematically impossible to be up 400% in silver bullion without leverage using a cost basis of $14.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Morons don't know the difference between average cost basis and initial investment.

They also don't know that 4-fold means up 300%.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:32 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, you give up, bitch boy.  Your little homo crush has gone far enough.  Now go down to the local gay bar and press your ass to the glory hole.  That's an order, if that makes you feel better.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Every time you fall on your face (which is constantly), you revert to very graphic and visceral homosexual rhetoric. In fact, there is no one on this forum that talks more about homosexuality than you.  That, itself, stands on its own.  Then, when considering the disgusting depths that you go....

.......Freud would be so curious.  

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 23:54 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hey, you're the one that climbs the tallest mountain and crosses the widest ocean looking for ways to discredit me.  What could possibly drive a man to do that, other than unrequited love?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Hey Repugnifuck:

You are a pussy.  You are that annoying shitfly that just buzzes around waiting for a big dog to show up so you can jump into the fight. 

When MuscleMan or GoldshitFinger aren't around your tone is ever so much more peaceful.  I bet you were that kid that got kicked down the stairs every morning in junior high weren't you?  The closest you ever came to a piece of ass was looking up at one while you picked your books up off the floor at the bottom of the stairs wasn't it?  The kid who used to be tardy all the time because you were hiding in a shit stall until second bell so you wouldn't get your face smeared down a row of lockers every day.  Probably showered in your underwear too. 

The internet was a great invention for you because now your pussy ass could be tough all of a sudden couldn't it?  Problem is Pussy, that your chickenshit personality shines through your internet tough guy persona.  Guys like you are easy to peg.  It's always the ones who got kicked around who are the "Champions for the Underdog". 

Calling you a douche is too good for you.  At least a douche get inside a snatch once in it's life.  You are the box that Douche is packaged in.  Just like you used to have to drive your dumb jock "buddy" around while he fucked hot chicks in the back seat and you tried to watch in the mirror.  All so you had a half ass bodyguard and didn't get pounded on so much. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

You are losing money and I find that pleasing.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Let's talk about it in a year.  I may be wrong, and am perfectly willing to admit it, but I'm not sweating it.  I'm glad you are pleased though.

Didn't junk you.  Not that I'm trying to be nice, I just hate anonymous junkers. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 15:56 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I resemble that comment.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

When MuscleMan or GoldshitFinger aren't around your tone is ever so much more peaceful...

First of all, I've never seen goldfinger until today.  When I think of goldfinger, I think Mark McGoldrick or James Bond. 

Secondly, of all the posts that I've made since last summer, there are only a few threads where I join "More Critical thinking..." in my anti-Right bashing, and that's only because his views are identical to mine. On top of that, I find his sly, dry humor entertaining.  I've been an anti-Right antagonist on this forum from day one.  In fact, it would be difficult to find another poster who is more vocal about their anti-Right positions than me. My entire persona on ZH is anti-Right.  I've been dodging bullets around here from the beginning, so don't give me some shit that I don't jump in the fray without him around. That's ludicrous.   

Third, the rest of your post is just meaningless rhetoric from another generation about high school bullies, high school stair-cases, locker-room fights and "jocks" - you sound like a high school television character stuck in a time-warp between Happy Day's and Grease.  What is your misplaced obsession with high school?  The fact that you could conjure such a fictitious scenario with such detail speaks more about your high school experience than mine. And the buzzing shitfly stuff? Only someone who shovels manure would speak like that. Fucking gross.  

I'm just here for humor and entertainment, and there's less of it every day.  Too many self-congratulatory liars, urban warfare extremists and/or confederate flag waving hillbillies.  Tmosely seems to have cornered the "liar" category all by himself, so I'll put you in the confederate-flag waving hillbilly box.  Don't worry though, I'll put the box next to an 8-track cassette player with the Happy Day's theme on continuous loop. You'll feel at home. 

 

  



  


Thu, 01/20/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Let me clarify.  Nobody could accuse you of being a member of a Tea Party group.  But when all on your lonesome, you tend to make generic Camaro, Beck, Palin and mullet jokes; some of them are even pretty funny.

Perhaps it is more lately, so excuse me if I speak in generalities, but you get PERSONAL when you can pile on, hence the chickenshit.  You can call it Happy Days all you want, but it's the way shit works.  People who only ATTACK in groups are pussies.  I stick to my guns on that.  It shows, RNR.

Yes, I have kicked a nerd or two down stairs.  Yes, I have shoveled a ton of shit in my time.  I guess I'm neither proud or ashamed of either.  I have no relationship with the confederate flag, and it's flatter than shit where I live.  You may call me a hillbilly if you want, CoonAss would be more appropriate. 

Now, since you have just been kicked down another "flight of stairs", don't feel obligated to respond.  Instead, why don't you go dry dock one thinking about your matronly old english teacher and use the spoo to flatten your cowlick. 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Let me clarify....

You don't need to clarify anything, CoonAss.  Your first post was sufficiently idiotic, like a grumpy old country-bumpkin' that hasn't walked into the 21st century.  Or the 80's, for that matter.  

And speaking of CoonAss...what sort of hillbilly shit is that?  

It only proves that, once again, I pulled out my arrows and fired a bulls-eye.  Shove your ass in reverse and divert the conversation into generalities all you want - I nailed you. 

I don't need the help of others to be personal.  Just review my posts for the past 7 months.  

And once again....CoonAss?

*LOL* 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

You've honestly never heard of a coonass?  You're way more metro than I would have guessed.  Coonass isn't hillbilly, dipshit.  Hillbilly is backwards uneducated mountain folk.  Coonass is backwards uneducated flatlander woodspeople.  

How cool for you.  I just opened up a whole new sub culture of people for you to look down your nose at.

Douchebox

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 00:01 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yup, Coonass refers to a group of French Canadians which migrated to the area around New Orleans.  They are more popularly known as cajuns.  I grew up on the border of this area, in southeast Texas.  I always loved coonass culture.  Great food.  Great music.  

RnR steeps in his own ignorance, like the Republicans he hates so much.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Am I wrong to think that the usefulness of all this sort of divination - particularly with respect to PMs - goes out the window to some extent when we're talking about such a heavily manipulated economy?  

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

My guess is that "members" of the gold and silver "community" will be in denial and will pooh-pooh that a larger correction is possible.  I think it was about a week ago, I cautioned that the markets were warning of danger.  That was before Blythe got her free ticket to pillage.

Gold and silver have both put in rounded tops.

Gold: http://www.4shared.com/photo/khGRJi7b/Gold_-_Rounded_Top_-_Head-n-Sh.html

Silver: http://www.4shared.com/photo/2Z8bUVG0/Silver_-_Rounded_Top.html

Feel free to junk away, because I know you are unhappy facing reality, and would rather listen to cartoon bears....

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The gold and silver "community" does not price gold in dollars. We do not price in leveraged speculation and charts. We price gold in the behaviors of nations and their people. If Blythe and her monkeys make the price cheaper, well then, let me be the first to back up my truck for delivery.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

.DP

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

pray, do tell...

if there was a sell off in PMs.. where is the liquidity going?

S&P is a crap shoot. bonds are a crap shoot.

cash? or paying bills? maybe the government is selling gold to pay bills?

where are the sellers and what are they doing with their converted paper?

sitting on the sidelines - again?

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment sheeple
sheeple's picture

forget about her theories, she's CUTE

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Better they knock it down now to prepare for February/March madness.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:01 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It appears like a nice inverse head and shoulders pattern has carved itself out today on /gc

I just may start picking some up around this level.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

For god's sake, do you not know she is the ex-sister-in-law to Sarah Palin's Dauthers-Boyfriends ibogaine dealer ?

Get that filthy animal off my U-Tube !

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

Shake the weak sheeple time. For the rest, better buying opportunities straight ahead

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

The first rationalization of a losing trade.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

These dips are happening at the worst time. My bonus doesn't come till March!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

McDonald's already handed out their manager bonuses last week. Who are you kidding? :>)

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!