Peak Theories' Short-Term Views On Gold

Tyler Durden's picture

Abigail Doolittle, of Peak Theories Research, shares her latest updated short-term outlook on the price of gold. Doolittle's conclusion: "Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal. In the long-term, however, gold’s primary and bullish uptrend appears to remain very much in place." Of course, for those who day trade gold, the broken upward channel we pointed out some time ago was the indicator to watch in taking profits. For everyone else, who believes that the past two weeks' weakness is merely a blip in an otherwise relentless march by the world's central banks to reflate their problems through currency printing and devaluation, the long-term outlook is certainly far more important.

In summary:

  • With gold below $1,353 per ounce, it appears to have begun a nascent trend of lower highs and lower lows or the topping process that I’ve been writing about.
  • This suggests that gold may continue to move down and especially with gold slightly below its 100 DMA of about $1,347 per ounce.
  • In turn, this may suggest that gold will fulfill its small Bear Flag with a target of about $1,330 per ounce and even the Diamond Top pattern with a target of about $1,284 per ounce.
  • If gold hits that target of $1,284 per ounce, there is a good chance gold will retrace the entire ascent leading to the Diamond Top or decline to about $1,155 per ounce.
  • Such a decline would be consistent with a pull down to gold’s long-term trendline which, ironically, will strengthen this long-term uptrend.
  • Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal.
  • In the long-term, however, gold’s primary and bullish uptrend appears to remain very much in place.

Full video:

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Bastiat's picture

"Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal."

Ya think?

 

JonNadler's picture

gold is collapsing! Sell it before it goes down to 200 an ounce!

downrodeo's picture

200 an ounce gold would be a wet dream yo!

philgramm's picture

I'd be able to buy 6 times as much.  24 ounces instead of 4 ounces?  definitely a wet dream.  Nadler can pick up his NFLX and AAPL.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

I really don't care what this broad says in the video. Please read this update. I have a high level of confidence in it:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/darkest-before-dawn.html

goldmiddelfinger's picture

You fcking troll. Telling me to buy at $1430 !!

tmosley's picture

Talk about the pot calling the porcelain black.

greenbear's picture

Thanks for the chuckle!

DosZap's picture

GoldFaNFger,

You just do not get it do you?.

$1430, $2000.00, the price in Fiat is irrelevant.

When the Show starts,you will be kicking yourself in the ass for selling, and wishing you could get it at $5k.

TheJudge2012's picture

If you want to buy high again then wait until next month.

Watauga's picture

Turd:  Love your posts, generally, but on this one, I don't think "the broad" is that far off from where you are.  She is talking only short term and intermediate term, at most.  And she is talking about a $1258 bottom on this pullback, with a slight chance of dipping to $1150 or so.  None of that is a surprise.  It is a standard sort of pullback necessary to consolidate the long term run up to levels you foresee.  Gold will reach your levels, and possibly within your timeframe, but this pullback will take gold closer to $1250 in the short term.  When it hits $1250, it is time to buy.

NOW, to my single, fundamental question: do we buy ONLY physical PMs or is it safe to dip into paper PMs (e.g., AGQ, UGL, GLD, SLV) when we buy this dip?

Misstrial's picture

I would say so. That's what I do anyways. The paper goes down with the physical, so when I want to buy more CEF, then I wait for a downdraft. 

~Misstrial

PS: I didn't junk you, btw. 

DosZap's picture

Wat,

Even if she's correct or close, also the Turdmeister(IS), your still basically looking at $1,300.00+ gold w/prems.

So how HUGE a drop is it really?,granted if you want to add to your holdings, a $100.00 pick up is great, and I will snag some.

IF it can be found,whoever wants to add, start holding the real deal, better be CASH rich, and a fast SOB.

txapela's picture

when shit starts hitting the fan, and i mean seriously hitting the fan, sell all paper and buy into closed funds of PMs or PMs proper.

 

GLD and SLV have custodians for their stuff, HSBC and JPM respectively. And most of their stuff is lent to them either ways. I mean, most of the GLD gold belongs to the Bank of England, who in turn get equivalent market value in terms of pounds or euros or $$$ for loaning their physical to GLD, who in turn gives it to HSBC to store. lol.

Misstrial's picture

I like your blog, TF. Only thing is, when I see "TF" I think of well, Ticker Forum...

In any event, if the U.S. Mint halts production of gold or silver eagles, buffaloes, AS THEY HAVE IN THE RECENT PAST, then whether or not prices have lowered won't make any difference if you're not able to get these coins.

Obviously you can buy Krugerrands or Philharmonics etc instead, however you won't get the tax benefits of Eagles.

~Misstrial

tmosley's picture

Unlikely.  The premium for physical would probably be $2000 a toz at that point, and even then, it will be hard to source.

goldmiddelfinger's picture

when you finish jerking off return the magazine to Dad

tmosley's picture

UR so kewl.  You don't use punctuation and doesn't afraid of anything.

oddjob's picture

Cashed my ZSL options and sold puts on SLW today.Play it right and you can ring the register on up and down days.

DosZap's picture

gold,

Sorry, but your really getting to be a PITA.

Do they have an FRN Board you can join?.

unwashedmass's picture

 

highly reco APMEX.com for those looking to get into the physical during this sale by JPM......

SheepDog-One's picture

Same as anything else out there, look at any of the totaly manipulated markets and try to find the 'safe haven', good luck. Its all manipulated BS and who knows when the wheels will come flying off but I'll take a safe full of silver and gold over anything else right now.

Double down's picture

When is a statement like that not true?

Gigliola Cinquetti's picture

Never , it's called a tautology . always true , alas totally meaningless

IBelieveInMagic's picture

OT, I had sold a PUT (it appears in my Orders tab) but it has not been updated in my transaction history -- it has never been delayed this way in the past. The PUT price has not increased since my trade -- I am wondering if my brokerage firm is front running me to the extent of buying my PUT with hope of flipping it higher and so has kept my transaction pending and hence not updated my transaction history.

Would appreciate any thoughts on this situation from the trading community.. 

Amish Hacker's picture

I'm no expert, but this doesn't sound right to me. Unless you sold with limit/stop conditions, or you were trying to sell enormous volume, your order should have been executed nearly instantly. The market maker in those options (who is not necessarily your broker) has many ways to screw you, but holding up your order more than a few seconds isn't likely.

Misstrial's picture

Could be, could be....who's your broker? (Hope its not OptionMonster or TradeMonster).

My RIA told me this goes on all the time with Options trading.Traders can see what your trade is and up the price or take an opposing position to your disadvantage.

Its the Najarian brothers.

~Misstrial

High Plains Drifter's picture

Who is this babe with the business suit on? 

almost_have_a_name's picture

"Watch out for the near-term, the mid-term, middle-far-term, far-out-middle-term, and don't forget to cover your a$$ in the meantime."

Pretty scarry gibberish, if you think of it. Back to the riot chanel.

 

Cash_is_Trash's picture

So many to choose from: Tunisia, Bangladesh...

Oooh, how about Mexico's relentless rise in narco-related murders and civilian deaths.

Or the unwinnable wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ray1968's picture

Reminds me of the old Steve Martin bit about smoking:

"I would only smoke it in the late evening. Oh, occasionally the early evening, but usually the late evening - or the mid-evening. Just the early evening, midevening and late evening. Occasionally, early afternoon, early mid-afternoon, or perhaps the late-midafternoon. Oh, sometimes the early-mid-late-early morning. . . But never at dusk! Never at dusk, I would never do that"

drswhaley's picture

Who is this Doolittle, and does she have a doctorate degree, and if so, in what?

Pladizow's picture

She was the singer from American Idol a couple of years ago that looked like Shrek's donkey.

Bastiat's picture

Still chuckling over that comment!

Arius's picture

i thought you guys were serious...thought perhaps, some former "star" talking about monetary issues...who knows what the next tactic will be...i mean really when is about gold nothing would suprise me - anything could happen

so I went to watch the video (of course did watch all the talk of the "expert") - then i too chuckled at the American idol comment...she could make a good potential Idol candidate assuming the show is still on by the time she is broke and looking for smt else...americans getting bored to voting their own pop star

DosZap's picture

Way OT, but pladiozow,your Avatar is killing me!!!!

Between RT, and you, my concentration, and reading skills decline precipitously.

(PS;Where did you find it?, LOL).

Strider52's picture

meh, his is OK, I guess...

Gene Parmesan's picture

If she does it's not in acoustics or focusing a camera.

Thomas's picture

Who cares? A hot chick who can talk about gold: Does it get any better than that?

metastar's picture

If she diggs gold, she must be a gold digger.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Hot chicks like gold. They like diamonds better.

Horatio Beanblower's picture

Those chicks need to learn about divisibility.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Oh they know about divisibility real well.  When the smoke clears and the dividing has been done, there you are sitting on the curb with nothing while she is taking a bubble bath in what used to be your house.

1223pm's picture

There is nothing like Physical once you have your hands on it. no turning back.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laO91yhxobc

 

DosZap's picture

Its because they do not know any better.

A 6-8 Carat CZ can get you a long way.LOL

SheepDog-One's picture

If she had a doctorate degree, then I'd immediately ignore her.

High Plains Drifter's picture

I bet if she took her top off you wouldn't ignore her....

Bastiat's picture

It would likely get me to watch longer than 15 seconds--but maybe not.

ThePermabear's picture

I pulled her Bio from her website, Peak Theories Research . . .

Abigail Doolittle started Peak Theories Research in May 2009. She has 12 years of experience in the financial services industry. Abigail decided to devote herself fully to PTR and her passion for technical analysis by leaving Hugh Johnson Advisors at the end of 2010. While at HJA, Abigail was the firm's Director of Business Development while also having been a Portfolio Manager at the firm. Prior to HJA, she spent 6 years at the former First Albany Capital as an institutional sales person and a research product manager. She started her career on Wall Street with Morgan Stanley’s real estate investment banking department. Abigail graduated from Colgate University with a degree in philosophy