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People Who "Want A Job Now" Jumps To Second Highest Ever As Persons Not In Labor Force Reaches Record

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Some more facts emerging from a look at two more sub-headline indicators: the persons not in the labor force, which we noted in the prior post, is now at the highest ever, at 84,626K, an increase of 462K from September. This odd change conveniently allowed the unemployment rate to stay low. And more importantly, the number of people who want a job now per Table A-1 is now the highest in 2010, and the second highest in history: 6,255K, an increase of 53K from the month prior. Good thing that none of the 462K other who dropped out of the labor force had any desire to work, as otherwise both the U-3 and U-6 would have painted a far uglier picture than presented.

 

 


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Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:21 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

People start wanting a job when 99 weeks of unemployment end.  FWIW, the July extension for the 4-5 million people that lost bennies in May/Jun will end later this month.  If you want to see what will happen, just revisit the retail sales numbers for May/Jun/July. 

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:29 | Link to Comment cswjr
cswjr's picture

Except to receive UI you need to "want a job".  In fact, you need to at least go through the motions of seeking employment.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Would you agree that there is certain and defined number of jobs available. So if it's true, looking for job does not improve job market, of course it may erode earnings of people already employed because of competition with people taking jobs for less. If going through the motion of seeking employment is panacea for you, it's ok, but it won't create any jobs and may undermine standard of living of others. Probably that's what you want if you are employer. UI is just insurance that those people won't go at once into the streets robbing you and destroying your world. Every some time they rotate in the ranks of UI recipents and that keeps peace.   

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

It creates jobs for government job counselors, private sector HR staff, IT professionals (who create systems to reject 99% of all online applicants) and all the coffee and sandwich vendors who supply their lunchs.

America is the GREATEST NATION ON EARTH!!

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

Brilliant!  There's still hope for professional asskissers who get laid off.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

In the early 2000's when Argentina crashed and burned there was 50% unemployment - all private sector. The remaining employed worked for the government.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Ragnar D
Ragnar D's picture

Except to receive UI you need to "want a job".  In fact, you need to at least go through the motions of seeking employment.

 

No you don't.  You need to "want a check".  In fact, you need to at most go through the motions of clicking "No" for the question of whether you worked last week, and "Yes" for the question of whether you were willing to.

You don't even have to leave the couch.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes damn good point.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 14:38 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

This is wrong for a simple reason: several hundred thousand people are hitting the 99 week mark (or lower, depending on the state) every month now, and yet the "not in labor force" number keeps going up.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:24 | Link to Comment sethco
sethco's picture

How does the increasing number of 'self employed' people, and the increasing use of 'contractors', who are not eligible for unemployment when they're out or work figure into the official unemployment numbers? Not at all? I think this has skewed the numbers downward over the last decade.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theres lots of 'self employed' people here I see them fighting over whose dumpster it is to look for soda cans.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:53 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

151,000 new yobs created. I got 3 of em.

 

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

:) +1000

 

no foreclosure for you then :)

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

I think that's the point. US.GOV defines anyone who does anything while unemployed as being self-employed...case solved!

If you make a sandwich for yourself for lunch you are self-employed.

AMERCIA IS THE GREATEST!

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:24 | Link to Comment -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

lol EMPLOYMENT on the HOUSEHOLD SURVEY FELL 300 while the Pop added 300 so we had 600 MORE on welfare

KOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIDDDDDDDDD

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Man, it's 1933 all over again, you all know what happened back then. Not sure if a market drop of 80%+ will take place but S&P below the "old March lows" is definitely in the cards! This combination of QE2(for nothing) and unemployment spinning will be one of the kickers, along with some PIIGS news!

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

OR the Republicans step in and get to be the "nice guy" with my tax dollars all over again...?

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whole country now based upon extending unemployment benefits past 99 weeks, and no one can be honest and call it what it really is at this point- permanent welfare.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:27 | Link to Comment cswjr
cswjr's picture

Yeah, whatever.  It's easy to lie with statistics, but when you're trying to fabricate data that has multiple constraints (in the sense that multiple statistics are co-determined) the degree of difficulty increases rapidly.  This is a good illustration of that phenomenon.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

why pay taxes if they can just print money?

 

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

Eventually the politicians will get rid of all income taxes (to get votes) and just print it up instead.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

because whoever pays taxes is working and somenbody has to operate the printing presses and work in the papermills.

 

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:34 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

SNAP increases 500,000 to 42.3 million for August...only 2 states saw a decline M/M. 17% increase Y/Y

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:43 | Link to Comment cat2
cat2's picture

Ben will not allow 1933 to repeat, this time it will be *different* (if he's allowed to continue printing).  Either way we are screwed, we blew our chance IMO 3 years ago when we allowed the gangztas to win (instead of going to jail and putting wall street into receivership).

It's going to mad max I think.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:54 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That's true, he won't let 1933 repeat.  He'll make it look like a fucking picnic.  In 1933 we didn't have massive trade deficits, fiat currency, or a hobbled industrial base.

Yea, he definately isn't going to repeat 1933.

Sun, 11/07/2010 - 19:08 | Link to Comment ElTerco
ElTerco's picture

...or stupid Baby Boomers retiring after they run the country into the ground and guarantee themselves more benefits than they paid into the system (both social security and paper assets).

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:02 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

 

Ben will not allow 1933 to repeat, this time it will be *different*

The BIG difference this time, besides the deficit, Population size,  is that instead of looking forward to 70 years of MORE supply and CHEAP oil prices,  WE are looking at LESS and LESS oil supply and HIGHER and HIGHER prices for  EVER.

A yearly Decrease in Supply(export quantity) For EVER (4%+ per year decrease),

= The END of GROWTH.  Period.

 

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

All of these people need to join the ranks of traders to amass their wealth.  Thanks to Banana Ben and Vampire Squid program trading, indices never go down anymore so making money is a sure bet.  In addition technical indicators such as BB, RSI, price gaps, etc. are no longer required learning since they do not apply in this new world.  If by some small chance you do lose money just call Ben on his Banana Phone and ask for another POMO.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

I'm sorry I was unable to contribute to the U-3 and U-6 figures.  I would try to do a better job at that, but my stupid stocks and precious metals keep going up.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The goverment needs to print bogus numbers;  then our confidence to spend money we don't have will be activated.

 Now it all makes sense. Forget about systemic structual deficiencies, and cyclical economic boom and busts cycles. Its a brave new world where reality is only a swan dive away.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That may be...but they WANT TO SHOP BABY!

Look at the REITS soar even higher today!  Wow, I would have never guessed that all the retail space would be such a hot commodity.  Boy, PHEW, was I wrong!

You just can't own enough big box retail stores right now.  I woke up this morning and though...now how can I increase my exposure to commerical real estate? 

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Bigger Dickus
Bigger Dickus's picture

I've been out of a job for 8 months and things are looking bleaker by the day. Bottom line: what you know doesn't matter; who you know matters immensely.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

We're going to have to all make our own work from here on out. Every single person who is jobless will have to start their own business. And business will be done, but it will be invisible to the govern-MENTAL eye.

Prove to me that I am not eating out of dumpsters, Mr Tax man.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Chuck Yeager
Chuck Yeager's picture

I don't buy it.  I'm an engineer.  Engineers were disparaged for decades (low salary, no respect, no opportunities.)

As a result, this very challenging field to get into has suffered from a shortage of qualified engineers.  Bill Gates brings them in on H1-B visias as a result of the shortage.

And further, there is this very day a high demand for qualified engineers that hold an ABET accredited degree.   Kids aren't learning math in high school.  Those that do their math get an MBA.  Salaries are going up. 

I did the pain for a long time.  Pay up Bitchez!

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:03 | Link to Comment iota
iota's picture

Pending house sales moved back two and a half hours... why?

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:08 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

And kitco is having issues early this morning.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:37 | Link to Comment FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

All these work and unemployment numbers and what they mean, don't mean, who's counted and who's not are irritating. Yesterday I read only 60k new private sector jobs were added but you need somewhere between 100k and 200k just to keep up with population growth. Yet, the unemployment number was flat. Now, seems to me it should have gone up. From what I can tell, there are a hell of a lot of unemployed who really do want to work, a lot who are working but way below their old position, i.e. an engineer now a clerk at Home Depot, another tier who are reemployed in their career but much less (most of my industry) and those like sales people who are fully employed but sales and commissions are down. The total of all these income drops is huge, I believe and not well captured in everything I've read. The only people that seem to be still humming along are sports stars, government workers and the financial elites.

But Obama just thinks we don't understand how good things are now and in the future. Hope he has fun in Mumbai...and stays there. Maybe he'll stop in Kenya on the way back and visit his half brother in the hut and tell him how good he has it, too.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

"sports stars, government workers and the financial elites." I would like to add "Hollywood" to your list.

The average american is caged by the "Steel Triangle" Wallstreet - DC - Hollywood.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Brick
Brick's picture

Somebody on the thread has already mentioned the problem, but it is worth emphasizing that there is a very big divergence between the estabishment and household survey.
Household data report -330
Establishment data + 151.
The difference between the two is that the household data tends to include the self-employed, new business start-ups,and growth in very small businesses.
Which of the two reports does the US government use and treat as the most accurate? You guesed it the household data.
During 2001 - 2004 the difference between household and establishment was the other way round and a discussion about it can be found here :
http://peoriapaper.com/employment/bls-data.htm
My take is that this is a bad report because entrepeneurs and start ups are obviously failing which perhaps reflects the way capital is being allocated in the economy.
This is without looking at participation rates, although this should be tempered with the improvements in those forced into part time employment.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 13:26 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Too bad they don't keep a stat on who wants to change jobs now.

Fri, 11/05/2010 - 18:11 | Link to Comment RECISION
RECISION's picture

When you have an army of unemployed...

When does it simply become - an Army

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