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Perpetually Wrong ADP Number Comes At 43K, On Expectations Of 20K, Up From Prior -2K
Where does one start here? The massive revision (from -39K to -2K), the constant flip flopping (from -2K to +43K), the fact that every single time the consensus was missed lead to a jump in the NFP (expectations this time were +20K), or that nobody cares about ADP anymore as it is merely noise?
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lol euro pooing its pants, this world is full of supprises.
hardly.
what's a ADP?
Automatic Data Processing. They print payroll checks and calculate payroll tax and withholding.
The data is real. The problem is they make no distinction among part-time 2.13/hr waitress jobs, temp jobs, and real jobs. Hence, the yo-yo effect.
Just some things to note in this report:
Manufacturing employment has continued it's steady decline from 17 million jobs in December of 2000 down to 11.5 million jobs last month. Goods-producing employment has declined from 24.3 million in December 2000 down to 17.4 million last month. Services employment has increased from 86.9 million jobs in December 2000 to 89.6 million jobs last month. Services employment is down from it's March 2008 peak of 93.3 million. The net jobs total since December 2000 has been -4.1 million jobs. The bottom occured in January 2010 at 106.7 million jobs, the current total is 107.1 million jobs, for a net gain of 400,000 private sector jobs since the beginning of the year (~40K/month gain on average)
The elections are over. We are going to see some employment miracles now. All the banks and big business don't need to screw the dems for the elections anymore.
LOL, the best joke posted today, thanks quin..or are you for real?? still funny as hell.
You obviously have never owned and ran a business. - "Oh I think I'll fire a bunch of my people to make the government look bad. That's so much more important than making a living. And while I am at it I will blow my foot off with this Magnum so health care looks bad too."
Side bet time. I say employment spikes over the next few months and lending increases. I bet you one American Dollar which I will keep on deposit for you in my bank account should you ever win. I saw it happening all Summer. You can say what is reasonable and what is not reasonable. But I know what I saw, read, and was involved in personally.
I think what you were involved in all summer involved a pipe and crack.
I think the only reason that you may see corporations freeing up some of their reserves is that they will be able to actually see a little bit of what is to come rather than constantly trying to guess what insane legislation Obama will pass next.
Quin, your guy Harry Reid won, so you don't need to post any more of your moronic drivel
10, 20 ,30 K wtf we need 250K to stay with population growth and havent seen that metric but once or twice in this cycle - more QE now!
Guess what? I've got a fever. And the only prescription - is MORE QE!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Mie9hhQTUM
Yep, this is like seeing bird droppings in my garden and thinking it's now fertilized.
futures show litlle reaction to this much-better-than-expected report......this shows that these data are merely NOISE
Silver may have a banner day:)
...or not.
Ben Bernankes speach is noise... this... this is comedy!
Yea they ran the markets up 12% in 2 months based on Santa Bernankes promised huge sack of QE gifts, now thats all just noise and we're good as-is to set up for more overnight future pumps.
Liesman actually just asked the front man for the ADP report a remarkable question. Since there is a consistent variance between official and unofficial employment numbers, shouldn't one simply add 80k to the ADP to accurately estimate the "official" government number?
No questions were asked as to the veracity of either method of gathering unemployed nuts, which just might show up as an inconsistency between the two reports. Just the blind assumption that since the even blinder official squirrel consistently and correctly finds all the nuts, all we should do is add some nuts to the ADP stash.
We plunge deeper into The Twilight Zone.
Liesman is a douchebag. Thank god for the mute button.
You really should see a dentist...
So, they upped their Sept number even after we found out the true Sept number was -235K, as ZH was nice enought o point out after all the states released their individual data.
That's not noise...QEII depends on bad news. This is not bad, ergo the market has no idea how to react. Gallup also shows employment up but reflecting a a "surge in federal gov't hiring".
http://www.gallup.com/poll/144149/U.S.-Job-Creation-Improves-Slightly-Oc...
More gov't is the answer. Soon GDP = gov't spending. How do I invest in gov't?
Clearly the orchestra is not finely tuned. No matter. Maestro conductor Ben and the InkJets are next up to bat at 2:15 PM. Time to make the doughnuts.
QEII depends on bad news
QE2 has beeen long decided...i dnt think they r waiting for any news now to decide
"How do I invest in gov't?"
Well they issue no stock so that leaves you the only other option - credit.
How do you feel about investing for 5 years @ less tha 1%?
Be carefull though this investment may gain "junk" status soon.
Credit risk at very low ROR???
There are alternatives.
stink bomb. no "government plan" is going to change Rosenberg's "jobless prosperity." an "anti-government plan" however...specifically "declaring the American revenue collection system completely shattered" is the only place to begin. Get it over with..."hand what's left of it over to Wall Street." Can there be any more appropriate victor on election day going forward than "the company formerly known as Anderson Consulting"? A LITERAL avoidance of accounting and accountability has been the "Democratic Party's methodology from day one." In short "they meant to blow up the job machine from day one." Well congratulations: now you get to live in it phuckers. Good job, America but let's not kid ourselves.
The big lie continues. Too bad they count those 77K in the service sector as "real jobs" instead of the seasonal Xmas hiring which goes "Buh-Bye" the minute the retailers figure out the second week of December that the American consumer is still broke.
It's going to be sad to see the myriad of small businesses that bite the dust this holiday season. So many depend upon the year-end to make their nut. But, survival of the fittest is valid in business as well. Creative destruction and all that.
They’re trying to become relevant find some way to market themselves……….well all they have done is become non-relevant and laughable.
Its all good. CNBC says so. Now go home and get your shine box
One:the rust belt went R. That means globalism, eg imports, will come under attack. Two: the tea party kept R's from taking Senate with RINO's. That means the finiacial lobby comes under attack. Barney Frank would have been better off retiring. So would Harry Reed. Three: less unemployment insurance, more foodstamps.
Really? Something Larry Meyer is involved with could be wrong? But Steve Liesman calls him "the best in the business"!
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