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Personal Income And Spending Both Lower Than Expected, PCE Deflator Surges, Savings Rate Higher

Tyler Durden's picture


Not surprisingly, the personal household weakness continues into May, when both personal income and spending came lower than expected, the first printing at 0.3% on expectations of 0.4%, in line with a revised 0.3% in April, while spending printing coming unchanged in May on expectations of a 0.1% rise, down from a revised 0.3% in April. Most important was that the PCE deflator increased by the most since late 2009, surging from 2.2% to 2.5%, just as expected. Squatters rent component of income once again increased: "Rental income of persons increased $3.3 billion in May, compared with an increase of $2.9 billion in April." More importantly, "Private wage and salary disbursements increased $14.1 billion in May, compared with an increase of $26.4 billion in April." This in line with observed decline in tax withholdings by the government over the past several months. Net result, in May the savings rate increased modestly from 4.9% to 5.0%, much to the chagrin of spending advocates everywhere, as in addition to deleveraging, US consumers also saved more. And this is before the market flush in June...

Savings rate:

And here is Goldman's disappointed take on the numbers:


1. Personal spending fell short of expectations, remaining unchanged in nominal terms but falling 0.1% in real terms. Moreover, the level of real spending in April was revised down. Real personal spending in the first quarter is tracking at 1% or just below, compared with the latest Q2 assumption of 1¼%. This implies a bit of downside risk to our 2% GDP growth estimate for the second quarter. Personal income also fell short of consensus expectations in May, rising 0.3% from a downward-revised base. The saving rate increased by one tenth to 5.0%.

2. The price components of this report contained few meaningful surprises. The increase in the core index was a bit above our expectation (+0.26% versus 0.24%). The year-to-year trend accelerated to 1.2%, as expected


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Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:48 | 1405033 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That chart has more room to move. I'm thinking that spike area  before the move Down.


    Catch the bounce!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:02 | 1405070 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture


Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:11 | 1405092 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Effin funny! Thanks.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:12 | 1405094 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They TOTALY expected it, Im sure!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1405038 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More good news on the anaversary of the "Summer of Recovery" sham!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:11 | 1405091 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well maybe they were talking about next summer? Nah, thats not going to happen either. Welcome to 3rd world USA, only gets worse from here on out.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1405043 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

went to my local Walgreens this AM...piles of plain color and white t-shirts for sale as low as $1.95...checkout girl told me they have been there for 3 weeks and she didnt understand why they havent sold...consumer spending #s now prove why...

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:57 | 1405048 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

how many tshirts can one own before the house explodes with tshirts

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:01 | 1405059 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

See, you have to buy chips with the t-shirts so your size keeps changing.  That's the key.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:02 | 1405064 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture


thats brilliant



Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:52 | 1405044 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

These types of charts on "personal" savings and spending are useless. Corporate profits are setting records! Stop watching the icebergs float by and just enjoy the cruise!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:53 | 1405049 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the ceo's were amazing at how well they predicted the crisis, and then so many were bullish right near the bottom - oops, most were as wrong as the cbns'rs


Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:58 | 1405052 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I concur! Just having fun.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 10:07 | 1405200 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Sure....and cancer is a viable plan for weight-loss too!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:59 | 1405053 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

if you americans would stop buying useless crap this whole consumer driven ponzi skeme would not be sustainable and everything would collapse...but nooooooo, you have to keep on buying shit from 3rd world countries and on and on and on...

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:00 | 1405054 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Blame Japan.  Oh by the way, that whole water decontamination thing at the nuclear whatzit?  FAIL.

TEPCO halts water circulation due to leaks

The operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has suspended using decontaminated water as a coolant because of leaky pipes.

Tokyo Electric Power Company began circulating recycled water through the No.1, 2 and 3 reactors at 4:20 PM on Monday.

But it halted the operation one and a half hours later after discovering water leaking from the pipes.

TEPCO has been attempting to run the decontamination system since June 14th. It has so far treated about 1,850 tons of the water.

The operator hopes to reduce the levels of radioactive wastewater accumulated at the plant as a result of injecting fresh water into the damaged reactors.

Circulating the decontaminated water around the reactors is considered an important step to stabilize them by mid-July as planned. It will also help prevent the volume of wastewater from increasing.

TEPCO says it will repair the leaks and hopes to resume water circulation soon.

Monday, June 27, 2011 20:40 +0900 (JST)

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 08:58 | 1405062 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture


I hope to resume a good lifestyle soon but...oooops not happening this year

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:00 | 1405067 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Jim is smart!


      {and Jim knows how to delegate!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:02 | 1405072 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

The stuff recoveries are made of.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:13 | 1405079 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tough to save when most peoples only income is an ever shrinking check from the govt. Time to admit total *fail* Keynesian central planners.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:08 | 1405085 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Today Obama will sign a new national directive thru executive order that all americans must buy 1 $8 burrito and 1 $30 GAP t shirt daily. That should fix all these non-spending saver BASTARDS!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:29 | 1405135 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Little people's savings getting confiscated by the money printers.

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:55 | 1405172 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Not to worry! We have printed prosperity now!

Wall Street has a disease! It's called hubris obliviana!

They are going to make sure that calamity is certainty as contagion becomes common language!

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 10:02 | 1405194 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Nice "wealth effect", Ben!

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