Personal Income, Spending Both Come Slightly Above Expectations, Savings Rate Unchanged
March Personal Income comes at 0.5% on expectations of 0.4%, while spending is also 10 bps higher than consensus of 0.5% printing at 0.6%. Sizable prior revisions see February income of 0.3% revised to 0.4%, while spending was revised from 0.7% to 0.9. As a result the February savings rate we revised lower to 5.5%, which is where the March savings rate came as well. Not surprisingly, the "rental income" which as explained before is what is known as Squatters rent, continues to come in strong, increased by $8.7 in March (over $8.1 billion in February). Following some timing offsets in the tax code, Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $64.4 billion, or 0.6 percent, in March, compared with an increase of $49.6 billion, or 0.4 percent in February. The GDP critical PCE increased 0.4 percent in March, the same increase as in February. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in March, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in February.
Then again, none of these numbers matter:
As part of the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs), revised estimates of personal income and outlays will be released along with estimates for June 2011 on August 2. Personal income, disposable personal income, and their components will be revised back to January 2006, and PCE and personal saving will be revised back to January 2003. The August Survey of Current Business will contain an article that describes the annual revision in detail.
Chart of the all critical revised savings rate:
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