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Persons Not In Labor Force Who Want Job Now Jumps To All Time Record; Real Unemployment Rate At 12.8%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Probably the last chart to bury any doubt about just how truly horrible today's employment data was, comes from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). Nothing else needs to be said.

 

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Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:38 | 934583 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Can you pipe down, Tyler?  Your frequent posting is slowing my machine down as I try to repeatedly hit the <BTFD> button on my ETrade console.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:13 | 934717 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture
Persons Not In Labor Force Who Want Job Now Jumps To All Time Record; Real Unemployment Rate At 12.8%

The mystery is, in the face of such horrible job market stats, why do you guys still dispute the Fed's duty to fight high unemployment via monetary easing?

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:16 | 934729 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

The only unemployment metric helped by monetary easing is bank management and federal workers. Lay off the juice. It's hampering your ability to reason.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:19 | 934738 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Dear Ben,

You can either save the bond market or the stock market, but not both.  

Your choice, mate.

Love,

The Market

 

<Irwin M. Fletcher, you choose.....And I lost again.>

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:23 | 934756 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Do you want even worse recessions, even more frequent ones, like the ones under the gold standard:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_VgJQTp0Bsf0/TUXXtHR_P9I/AAAAAAAAAHY/tOUr4y8watA/sl...

really?

And those are just the official stats - who knows what the shadow stats were back then ...

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:33 | 934782 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hey, anyone can post a chart.  How about you describe the methods used in constructing that chart?  

Here, I'll do it for you.  Prior to the Great Depression, unemployment rates were not tracked systematically, but rather have since been estimated.  The rates that are reported are generally coincident with U6.

What does U6 look like today, you ask?

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Depends who you ask.  Government and private economists vary pretty widely on this subject.  Either way, it looks like you need more critical thinking.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:55 | 934886 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

These kinds of statistics are generally normalized across the whole time period. One data set is:

http://hsus.cambridge.org/HSUSWeb/search/searchTable.do?id=Ba470-477

The rates that are reported are generally coincident with U6.

Typical weasel words. Got any proof that the stats are wrong?

Nor does your argument really cover the frequency and viciousness of bad booms and busts under the gold standard: does the Great Depression with it's 25% peak unemployment rate, 7 million people living in deplorable conditions in Hoovervilles and an estimated 7 million people having died from malnutrition and other effects of the depression tell anything to you?

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:58 | 935132 tmosley
tmosley's picture

First, your link is broken.

Second, feel free to correct me.  I didn't say the stats were wrong, I just said they should be compared with U6, not U3.

Sorry, You can't blame the Great Depression on the Gold Standard.  We went off of it in the middle (you could no longer trade dollars for gold, or even legally own gold), and it only got worse thereafter.  

Further, we now have unemployment that is every bit as bad as then.  Abandoning gold as money has clearly failed to solve anything.  More critical thinking is needed here.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:11 | 935169 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Sorry, You can't blame the Great Depression on the Gold Standard.  We went off of it in the middle (you could no longer trade dollars for gold, or even legally own gold), and it only got worse thereafter. 

Sure the crippling deflation stopped after the gold standard was dropped:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...

Sure unemployment peaked at around the time the gold standard was dropped:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SlVu0t0KqXI/AAAAAAAAFxo/rzSqiWrqGu...

How do you define "it only got worse thereafter"? It did not: Roosevelt got elected, the gold standard got dropped, the funds from the government dropping the gold standard (read: revaluing gold, printing dollars) were used for stimulus programs.

In 1937 there was a second dip, because the depression was declared over and tightening was done too soon. But the huge 1940 stimulus rocketed the economy out of the recession ...

History rarely gets any more clear-cut than that, really.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:13 | 935211 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Care to recount the history of the panic of 1920-21?

Oh wait, State approved history says it never happened. Carry on, nothing to see here.

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:34 | 935243 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Not sure what your point is (we were talking about the Great Depression), but post-war economic cycles often show sharp adjustments: millions of people moving around. There were a few out-of-the-ordinary economic events after WWII as well.

None of that happened around the Great Depression so it's a "clean" example for a full-bore gold standard recession. But you could look at the panic of 1893 graph I cited as well.

If you want to see how a rigid supply of money can cause deep pricing and economic activity problems, and how those problems can go away if more money is introduced see this "economy of POW camps" description:

http://www.albany.edu/~mirer/eco110/pow.html

(It's from 1945, so you cannot blame his description of POW-camp economics on current political preferences.)

It demonstrates how deflationary forces work in practice. The same happened during the Great Depression: people valued gold (which was equal to money) more than they valued engaging in trade and in production. The end result was a crippling spiral of dropping prices, dropping wages, dropping productivity and increasing unemployment - human misery all around, with no constructive purpose whatsoever.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:46 | 935624 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Thank you, tmosley, and of course you are correct as they now parse down real unemployment to unbelievably fictitious levels.

If they measured unemployment TODAY they measured it during the Great Depression, real unemployment is between 28% to 33% -- at the very least.

And these endless goldbugs are mentally annoying.  Anyone who pontificates about the Great Crash and Great Depression, while ignoring the dramatic effects of Prohibition (1920 - 1933: major tax cut and dark pools laundered through stock exchange), as well as ignoring the effect of securitization, a term not in use back then, but the process was, began around 1909 and really took off in the Roaring Twenties, leading to the Great Crash.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 16:52 | 936099 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

mosley

You have repeatedly demonstrated a very peculiar understanding of American banking and monetary history.  You're very good with shallow pundit-style assertions that you've likely heard on various YouTube clips, but your positions break down immediately when confronted with facts and charts.  

This occurs regularly with you.  

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:37 | 934803 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Hey dope, they didn't have "official" stats back then as the FedGov was about 1% the size it is now, and there wasn't any gigantic propaganda apparatus. Whatever stats we have regarding that time were put together by non-governmental entities or reconstructed by historians.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:01 | 934903 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

The "official stats are falsified" defense - again without proof. Can I add a few more to your list of right-wing facts:

  • the planet is not warming up
  • humans and primates did not descend from the same species millions of years ago
  • global food prices are not going up due to supply & demand
  • 7 million people did not die due to malnutrition and other health problems during the Great Depression

Have I missed any other "fact" you believe in?

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:21 | 934974 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

You're fighting a losing battle. I was on here all last week giving reasons why we would see a drop in UE to the low 9%. Of course, I got a million junks. If these guys would just listen to rational data points instead of blindly dismissing every number as a "lie", they might not be so miserable.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:27 | 935002 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Why don't you explain the math then? 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:37 | 935018 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Well, lets be balanced with today's NFP stats: they are really bad.

UE might have dropped from 9.5% to 9.0% but that's probably because people stopped looking for work - i.e. their stats went over into the U6 category and got out of the official UE category.

I am somehow not convinced that U6 is rising due to people retiring early or taking a leisure break from work, to enjoy the fruits they earned in the last 2 years. (unless you count 10,000 bankers.)

I think people dropped out from under the radar of unemployment stats because they live in regions where it's impossible to find jobs, and where it's not possible to sell their homes either to migrate to another state. They fell out of the 56 weeks of unemployment coverage and are now trying to keep up with the odd job here and there and are hoping for better times.

I.e. the housing bust has made the US labor force less mobile, and that is bad, very bad.

Those kinds of shifts in the labor force are very worrying, because they foreshadow a Japanese type deflationary story: rising long-term unemployment, rising youth unemployment and a whole new generation of youth who cannot find a real job and does not know what hit them - and who can not be blamed for the situation ...

If my hypothesis is right then within a few quarters we might start seeing a steady rise in petty crime: 'odd jobs' tend to fluctuate, and when there's a "you will now starve" kind of liquidity squeeze on a family then often the only option is crime.

Lets also be clear that the naive Ron Paul suggestion of a gold standard would only make deflation even worse and would guarantee that the rich stay rich - essentially forever.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:40 | 935053 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I think your take on the stat. is correct for the most part.  That's why I get pissed at Harry (I think this is the real one anyway) for trying to spin it as positive. 

You and I have had discussions about the other portions of your comment, and know where each other stands.  Good luck to you.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:46 | 935083 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Well, lets be balanced with today's NFP stats: they are really bad.

Actually, when you remove the weather factor (and yes, the worst snow storms in history in 1/3 of the country HAVE to be considered in this report) then it was a fairly solid report. CE gives a very unbiased look at this report with a solid breakdown and comes to a similar conclusion.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:54 | 935113 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

How many jobs do we need to create a month to keep up with population growth?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:05 | 935162 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Harry.  raps hard on Harry's head three times and shouts, "Hello McFly"....

The math isn't there Harry.  Even if you want to factor in weather, (as noted earlier, we've never heard about good weather accounting for squat) the jobs created doesn't add up to the percentage drop.  Do you want to comment on that, or simply pump your side of the argument?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:24 | 935261 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

There is no "math" to explain here. You have a survey and a set of numbers. When one considers weather AND the fact that the survey takes into account the self employed, you can't rely on numbers when that latter component is missing from the data set.

Also, every other report, ISM, etc., has shown increases in employment components. If anything, the governments number was the outlier since every other data point supports the 9% unemployment number.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:30 | 935290 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

I'm not as optimistic as you - but if you are right then next month's NFP should show an above-average uptick (to average out the weather effects).

So if there is no uptick then your current explanation for the bad NFP numbers can not hold up.

Do you agree?

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:16 | 935498 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yes, I agree. Next month we will see a rather large number and the 9% rate will make a lot more sense to everyone.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:35 | 935307 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

That's fine, Harry.  Factor in everything that might support the figure you want to hear, and ignore that U6 rose by more than U3 dropped.  But hey, we created 36,000 jobs.  Green Shoots!!

Also, removing self employed persons from figure is fine, but you are unable to look at the ledgers of said self employed.  They aren't all selling astonishing numbers of curtain rods.

You are much worse about cherry picking than the people you argue with.  You may be making money, and if so, more power to you, but your continued refusal to acknowledge anything that isn't rose colored is somewhat laughable.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:59 | 935423 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Well, next month's NFP numbers will test all these hypotheses AFAICS.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:44 | 935619 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

And regardless of the outcome, Harry will find a way to spin it into a dazzling rainbow.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 17:31 | 936211 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

If so then it will be pretty obvious though.

This is a testable claim and if there is no uptick next month there's no valid excuse left really: QE2 is ongoing and working, the global climate is positive, the US economy is growing.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:33 | 935016 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:35 | 935019 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

So even after completely destryoing the central bank's balance sheet with toxic paper and pushing the treasury to insolvency, sycophants celebrate a 9% rate, 16% U6 and the lowest participation rate in 27 years?

Allow me to pose a question to those that still want the Fed(s) to have a future on this landmass, was it worth it?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:43 | 935066 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

...was it worth it?

Well, yes. It gets the machine cranking. That's the whole point. That's why it's called "stimulus". You can't say it's failed until it's taken away. If the economy continues to slowly pick up after it is removed, and I fully believe it will, jobs will also improve. That's the point of stimulus - you can't start a fire without a spark.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:54 | 935114 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

The machine already beaten down by decades of graft, neglect and often times scorn was on its last legs. You really don't see the end game do you? The fire you started is going to burn the mutha down.

Moreover that is super cool theory and all but "it would have been worse" isn't much in the way of empircal evidence to support your hypothesis.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 02:16 | 937005 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

That's the point of stimulus - you can't start a fire without a spark...

I've thought of the increase of FRNs as liquid, not fuel, spark or consuming fire. In my model, this extraordinary amount of liquidity is and has been injected into a sub zero environment, i.e. Fed lap-dogs. This excess is frozen and may as well never have been conjured up in the first place if all it's doing is sitting in some ledger sheet to placate some random BIS "requirement".

If it were to ever heat up and the whole lot melted at once, well, then I hope the Bernanke has enough Barwney towels to sop up that mess.

As it is, I still hold the US mints should get out of the "collectibles" business and begin coining intrinsically valuable money, whether Au, Ag, Cu, I don't really care. In addition, if the US Treasury department were to start issuing US dollar notes redeemable in said currency, we may see a return of the real Mr. Market.

I just don't believe the BIS will stand for a level playing field however, instead they'll propose additional enslavement products like the 50 and 100 year slave notes mentioned earlier.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:48 | 935090 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Allow me to pose a question to those that still want the Fed(s) to have a future on this landmass, was it worth it?

Yes, hands down.

Had the Fed and the USG been as decisive as Chinese and German authorities stimulated their economies, the US might be seeing this kinds of unemployment stats:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...

and this kind of productivity growth after the recession:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...

So yes, stimulus makes quite a difference - if you implement it and if you do not have a GOP who is sabotaging it all the way.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:51 | 935101 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Respond to my lengthy post on newspeak bitch, you invoked one of the arguements which I expressly prohibited you from invoking.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 18:15 | 936289 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

I have answered it below (you are confused about Japan as well, as usual), although I should probably not have taken your bait trolling for me.

Btw., it's pretty telling that you called your 5 meager sentences a "lengthy reply" :-) You must be used to writing Twitter messages only, so trying to write up a coherent argument must have been pretty taxing on your attention span, right?

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:36 | 936609 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

It was post #934972 dipshit though obviously obfuscation is your game

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:58 | 935133 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

How much money did Germany spend on stimulus projects?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:10 | 935194 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

I feel compelled to call you out on your terminal case of correlation as causation. Your assertion is that Germany recovered because of stimulus, its position as a net creditor, producer for export and the stimulus as a % of GDP being tiny when compared to US itches brew of stimulus, QE1 & QE2 and the collaterialization of the currency by toxic MBS and Treasury Paper of course bearing no relevance. Only through stimulus did Germany post a recovery and the US problem was of course, not enough.

Has an economy ever recovered from a liquidation event without stimulus? On the flipside has expanding the monetary base ever failed to produce growth?

 

Is this merely correlation or is there a P Factor here worth considering:

http://cdn.wallstreetpit.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image0170.png

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 17:54 | 936243 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Is this merely correlation or is there a P Factor here worth considering:

http://cdn.wallstreetpit.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image0170.png

 

You apparently still do not understand why the Japanese bank-stimulus and easing attempt of 1999 did not work, right?

Here's a list of the various stimulus and QE efforts implemented in big economies of the world - I have left the Japanese one at the end so that you can see the difference to the others:

The German stimulus was efficient because it essentially worked via wages: the stimulus was entered via KA (short-work) government programs, which money was spent by millions of consumers directly. (You saw the graph I linked to - the stimulus worked phenomenally.)

The Chinese stimulus was efficient because it's a broad-based export industry subsidy in essence: the main form of the stimulus was the weak yuan. (There were outright development programs as well, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars - but the main stimulus was the FX rate which is kept artificially low via capital controls.)

The US stimulus and QE was not as efficient IMO but still worked reasonably well: US bonds were mainly owned by US companies (to the tune of 1 trillion dollars), so shortening their maturity and thus pushing liquidity out of long bonds and into investments and equities indirectly stimulated the economy. There was explicit stimulus spending by the USG as well, with various grades of efficiency.

(Estimations are that the stimulus efforts were about 50% as strong as Germany's stimulus and only about 25% of China's stimulus. So it was borderline efficient - and the recovery in the labor market is sluggish partly due to this.)

The Japanese stimulus/QE of 1999 was wholly inadequate: the monetary base was more than doubled mechanically, but the funds remained 'stuck' at the largest Japanese banks - 90% of the funds remained in only a dozen of them. Little of the stimulus flowed into the real economy: banks were not lending because companies did not grow, and companies did not grow because banks were not lending - a catch-22 scenario. The banks were saved from insolvency, but the rest of the deflationary damage to the economy was not fixed.

Here's a graph of Japanese M0 and M2 in that time period, that demonstrates the Japanese problem:

http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/qejapan.PNG

See how M0 (money at banks) got almost tripled, still it had little effect on M2 (money in the real economy)? In the "POW-camp economy" article that I've linked to above this is equivalent to tens of thousands of cigarettes being distributed but kept locked away in the Canteen and only handed out once there was enough trade.

So all these scenarios and historic examples are well-researched and well-understood, it's just that you refuse to read and refuse to think for yourself. It's a petty because you seem smart otherwise, but it's not like I can force you to think, right? What I can do is to expose your confusion for everyone to see.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:56 | 936634 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

And you COMPLETELY gloss over the relative creditor positions of China/Germany as compared to the US in 2011 in terms of actual stimulus and wander off into a rich ocean basin of red herring. Now for the rest;

Moreover "(Estimations are that the stimulus efforts were about 50% as strong as Germany's stimulus and only about 25% of China's stimulus. So it was borderline efficient - and the recovery in the labor market is sluggish partly due to this.)"

This complete BS in any quantitative terms. Germany's stimulus was around 1.6% of GDP, the US close to 3%. The redistribution of wealth was agreeably conducted in a more focused and effective fashion and as the Eurozone Creditor the Germans were able to give away other people's money without indebtting their infant grandchildren.

All the while you live in a fantasy world in which correlation equals causation (when of course the correlation is convenient to your world view). Germany recovered BECAUSE, Germany recovered IN SPITE...who is to say? Your earlier reference to FDR's treasonous gold confisc and "premature monetary tightening" as empiracally proven, historically validated "solutions" suggests to me that your forgot the 800 pound gorilla of a punchline in that room, a fucking world war as additional stimulus.

China - Your charecterization of the Yuan peg as stimulus is absurd. This is not an acute, tactical action, this is a long term, strategic sodomization made possible by American's subsidized preferences to consume. This is ridiculous, if you want to talk about China's actual stimulus by all means, again as a massive creditor nation investments in infastructure without additional debt load is completely irrelvant to this discussion. Apples and muthaforkin oranges.

Your assertion that Japan's 1999 efforts were simply too small is the epitome of refusing to think for yourself, it is Keynesian academic group think to the Nth degree.

As always Court Intellectuals fail to even acknowledge the Austrians and their hypothesis grounded in empiricism, that the both the Lost Decade Japan and the US 2007-20** are simply additional examples of a centrally planned economy suffering from the crippling effects of systemic malinvestment. Japan's growth is still crushed under the weight of zombie banks and zombie industry, now how as someone who spends half of their fucking day on princeton.edu and St Louis Fed websites do you fail to see the trend here?

 

Enjoy your zombie recovery, I am long physicial, tactically long commodities and am desperately awaiting the last gasp dollar rally to short the shit out of your fantasy and go levered long on the former.

 

And again it was #934972 bitch.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/persons-not-labor-force-who-want-job-no...

 

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 09:31 | 938613 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

The only part of your rant where you managed to cite hard facts was:

Germany's stimulus was around 1.6% of GDP, the US close to 3%.

Although you do not cite any sources for your data.

Anyway, the figures you claim are entirely bogus.

Here's some real data, showing that during the peak of the crisis the German government spent nearly twice as much as the US government:

http://www.cepr.net/images/stories/germany-U.S._23832_image001.gif

The figures show all levels of government spending, so it's apples to apples.

(I wont bother debunking your other arguments, they are neither particularly coherent, nor backed by data.)

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:53 | 935106 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Ultimately, a few years from now Harry, everyone will run out of government largesse and no longer be counted. They will be mowing lawns and cleaning toilets, getting cash. The government will proclaim the unemployment is at 4% and guys like you will be carrying their water. This economy is some bastard child, invented by the Bernank and designed to break the Chinese peg. That's it. You go ahead and believe any BS you want.

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:22 | 935755 Fascist Dictator
Fascist Dictator's picture

+14.3 Trillion !!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:28 | 935007 SmalleyD
SmalleyD's picture

Hey, it's Phil Jones.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:59 | 935139 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nice ad hominem.

Care to use some more logical fallacies?

Use some critical thinking, boy.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:24 | 935264 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

"global food prices are not going up due to supply & demand"

Really dude? Every fucking commodity on the planet is perfectly correlated post QE2 and yet you stick with Krugmanian line of "global economic recovery".

No you're right, I am sure that exploding WTI inventories and the capsizing Baltic Dry are both strong indications of rising demand and that the price of wheat, rice, copper & silver are just expressions thereof.

Clearly Krugman had it right, it's demand dummy, not the Bernank's hot money coursing through the arteries of the world econcomy. Your type is guilty not of willfully blind ignorance and faith in established thought, just disingenuity.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:22 | 934749 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:12 | 934940 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

Well, have you ever heard of the term blowback? Unintended consuquences? Or remeber The Feds other Mandate to get everyone with a pulse a house????  BOOm & Bust is how we have been trained to think of an economic realities.

How about a sustainable real recovery from the fraud inducsed collapse of credit.  One that does not involve blowing bigger bubbs

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:26 | 934763 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uhhh, how about "because it clearly doesn't work"?  We've had two years of it, and every prediction they have made has been wrong.  When you make predictions based on theory, and they consistently fail to come true, then it is time to re-examine your theory.

That is what a critical thinker would do.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:36 | 934800 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Because after literally trillions thrown at this in the name of unemployment it hasn't worked. 

 

Those not in labor force who want a job reached an all time high of 6.6 Million.
~3.2 million job openings (via JOLTS)

6.6 Million NILF that want a job and ~9 million on some sort of unemployment for a total of 15.6 million needing a job with only 3.2 million job openings....see the problem?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:20 | 934972 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Let's start with central planning being immoral, counterproductive, ineffective and ultimately terminal.

Second let's move on to your newspeak.

"Duty" - The Fed is just a patriotic institution looking out for the well being of its econcomic children the people. Of course.

"Fight" - Though you were one of the fucking twits shrieking about rhetoric after the Giffords thing you are happy to employ millitary idolatry when it is a great Duty bound institution of the People's governmet doing the "fighting".

 

"Fact or Factual" - State worshipping sycophants use the terms incessantly, why? The simple answer of course is that the Court Intellectuals are the centers of influence in society that are bestowed with the power to determine what is "factual", to literally define the meaning of is. The Fed and its sycophantic apologists (e.g. you) have the benefit of effectively owning economic academia for a century, that is the ability to effectively determine what is economic fact.

So asshole I will ask for one simple fact, to which I am 100% sure the answer will be obfuscation cloaked in a "factual" assertion;

Provide me with ONE example in the history of central planning, I mean banking, in which expanding the monetary supply by buying government paper has increased the rate of employment? You of course will be unable do so but will fall back to the apologist's position that "it would have been worse" OR the far more loathsome but predictable position that government payrolls take people off of unemployment, that is hiring additional parasites somehow improves the health of the host.

"Monetary Easing" - Newspeak for stealing purchasing power from the productive savers in society through debasement of the currency, thereby redistributing the value therein to those at the top of the monetary pyramid and their armies of parasitical perpetual adolescents.

But alas I hope power worshipping sycophants such as yourself do actually succeed in ushering in QEX for two reasons, 1) it will be the end of the US National Government and not a moment too soon and 2) you will reap what you have sown.

 

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:37 | 934584 Jason T
Jason T's picture

If I didn't have a 5 month old.. I'd be looking for part time work being able to use my knowledge of circuit board manufacturing (was engineer) to get a $25 job.  PCB makers are hiring right?  

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:41 | 934609 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

My day job is in electronic component distribution.  Some passives and actives are running 52 week lead time.  Getting something to market is daunting.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:42 | 934616 snowball777
snowball777's picture

WTF were you thinking having a kid in the middle of a depression?!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | 934621 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I am in the same boat my son is 2,  born right before the collapse.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:23 | 934757 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You get a pass (unless you were aware the crash was coming, as I was), but "5 months old" implies conceived after the crash.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:47 | 934853 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Actually I was expecting bank failures and very cheap houses.  Not a bailout book cooking prozac nation.  Live and learn.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:35 | 935027 csmith
csmith's picture

I was expecting bank failures and very cheap houses.

All in good time my pretty...all in good time.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 16:28 | 936010 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

" but "5 months old" implies conceived after the crash."

Marital Sex Is Cheap In a Depression
Maybe condoms and birth control are expensive... So in a depression you go anal?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:45 | 934628 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

The only 1ns allowed to have kids anymore are social security bums getting paid to do it, hard working middle class people can hardly afford 1 not to mention 2 without getting below the poverty line

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:55 | 935119 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

you mean welfare queens

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:47 | 934637 Jason T
Jason T's picture

well, i live in NY.. if we have 1 more kid making our family 4, and household income goes under $28,668 a year, then my state will pay us $668 a month for food stamps. 

just kidding.. we live frugal.. very and have a low cost lifestyle.  i make my own bread.. cost 50 cents a loaf.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:06 | 934701 jomama
jomama's picture

sweet, i didn't have kids because i knew i couldn't afford it.

glad to see you believe the government should help you pay to raise your children.

that's an 'entitlement' i refuse to buy into. 

keep cranking them out, dude.  who gives a fuck if you can give them a decent life or not as long as welfare helps you make ends, right?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:14 | 934722 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

You might want to re-read his comment - in full.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:18 | 934735 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Frugality does not excuse stupidity.

Personal responsibility: get some!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:19 | 934741 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Don't worry, someone will hold the fate of these kids over our heads at some point.

Look on the bright side, there'll be that many more new entrants to the Ponzi to spread the 'love' to in the future we 'win'.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:21 | 934755 aaronb17
aaronb17's picture

Wow, that's pretty harsh.  Don't forget he's doing something for the government, too.  First, he's not holding up every Lexus SUV he sees, which is what I would do if I thought "government" wasn't the answer.  Second, he's abiding by the host of contracts he enters into every day, rather than forcing everyone to take him to court, thus overburdening the court system.

If you want people to have contempt/disdain for goverment assistance, don't forget that the government assists you every day by ensuring your financial stability and security.  Imagine how much more it'd cost you if you had to guard your wealth/enforce your contracts all on your own.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:30 | 934775 snowball777
snowball777's picture

The government has done precious little to insure anyone's financial security...quite the opposite, in fact. I know I didn't repeal Glass-Steagall. Did you?

As for 'security', it is well-established that the defense industry is rife with inefficiency and outright corruption that would make a mafioso blush in embarassment. Maybe you like buying hookers for 'Duke' Cunningham and subsidizing the richest members of congress and their private interests (Issa...Harmon...Chertoff...etc ad nauseam).

As for 'contracts', tell it to my dad who has a summary judgement for $30k against the start-up he was working for that imploded due to fraud and mismanagement. That and $3.50 will get him a cup of coffee.

Placating would-be SUV bandits is not comparable to providing an economy with opportunity for all.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:36 | 935031 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

@ jomama,

You CAN afford kids.  Haven't you heard of SNAP, WIC, rental assistance, fuel assistance, 3 year unemployment, medicaid?  By the time your bennies taper off,  you can just hand the little bastards off to the subsidized pre school system where they will get 2 squares and even a bag supper to bring home if too much of your monthly stipend is taken up buying generic cigarettes and lottery tickets.  Two years of that and they belong to the K-12 system where they will be taught how if you just hope hard enough, we can feed the world.  Get with the new normal.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:44 | 935074 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

+1

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:26 | 935271 andybev01
andybev01's picture

And if there really is a God, you never will.

Fact check and edit before hitting <save>.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:50 | 934655 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

I have a 19 month old and another due any day now.  I couldn't afford to do anything else during this depression so I did what was, for the most part, free.  And before anyone gets started, it's only free for me.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:20 | 934744 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It's called a BLOWJOB.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:13 | 934944 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Clearly, you're not married...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:21 | 934977 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Wife's clock was ticking.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:37 | 934587 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Of course there is something else to be said!  Harry, the mike is all yours...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:55 | 934673 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I'll bet when Harry watches "It's A Wonderful Life" he cheers for Mr. Potter.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:38 | 934589 duo
duo's picture

How European!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | 934590 uhb
uhb's picture

aren't those people , ahem ,how can i say .... un - employed? I wonder why they dont show up in the numbers..... *ROFL*

(Thank you, i know how those numbers are calculated, i was just using sarcasm )

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:38 | 934592 alexwest
alexwest's picture

hey tyler print this stats, not stupid chart from calculatedrisk blog

let me put my analysis.
in june 2007
## (Unadj) Civilian noninstitutional population was 231,713 th
## Total private unadj - 116,603 th (TOP OF JOBS)

fast forward
2011 jan

## (Unadj) Civilian noninstitutional population was 238,704 th
## Total private unadj - 106,071 th

SO 3.5 years LATER WE're A SHORT OF 17.5 MLN PRIVATE JOBS
7 MLN POPILATION + 10 MLN LOST PRIVATE JOBS..

HOW IS THAT ?

ALX

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:39 | 934596 dryam
dryam's picture

I want 4 numbers every week.

 

1)  Total Americans

2)  Total Unemployed

3)  Total Underemployed

4)  Total that don't care about getting a job

 

This isn't fucking rocket science.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:48 | 934642 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You only need one number: personal income growth.

It doesn't matter how many people find 'a' job, if that job earns them 60% of their former salary and that income growth rate isn't better than inflation.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | 934599 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

obamite Hilga says this is great - everything is improving

touts obama as a tax cutter cause he agreed to republican demands to extend Bush tax cuts

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | 934607 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

a lie a second - "more people are looking"

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | 934601 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

I'm sorry to interrupt but please explain to me what's happening to gold right now

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:47 | 934638 bania
bania's picture

looks like it's trying to crash a debt ceiling

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:49 | 934649 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Whipsaw?  Wait till the $100 swings in a day and then less time. Sinclair been saying it for years.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | 934603 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

At some point thinking men and women are going to have to put their finger on their noses and shout "Pig".

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:19 | 934739 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

That is sooooo insensitive ;-)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | 934605 Gimp
Gimp's picture

It's all going to be okay, Ben told me so.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:41 | 934610 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I wonder if Bernanke's appearance on '60 Minutes' in early 2009 was the "signal" for every government agency and every major media outlet to lie through their teeth and act like cheerleaders to the masses.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | 934618 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Yeah before that the government and media were like really honest

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:47 | 934640 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I didn't say that.  However, the level of media cheerleading in the past 20+ months has come in heavily concentrated form.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:41 | 934612 Lincolns Mullet
Lincolns Mullet's picture

It's a conspiracy of lazy people refusing to work!!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:41 | 934614 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i feel better now...goolsbee is in charge....

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | 934619 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

The household data added two categories of jobs - self-employed, incorporated and self-employed, not incorporated.  I haven't looked at the data closely, but I'm sure it will reflect a big enough jump in jobs to explain the low rate.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:51 | 934659 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Well at least your crack dealer is keeping busy.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | 934620 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

nothing much matters when most of those that can understand this madness..what comes next?? When someone who can stand up on the national scene and calls this all BS and just states the truth..a new tidal wave will wash the current business and gov leadership aside..or that is my dream ..my hopium.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | 934622 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

More BS from CNBS during employment report this morning - some ass says that he knows a business owner that would buy 50 more trucks if he could find drivers for them. Uh...pal..that is the most stupid fucking thing I have heard on CNBS this year. there are like over 6 million candidates out there. These people need to get a fucking clue and I am tired of their pro governemnet propaganda bullshit.

 

My site is down by the way - working on getting it back up.

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:52 | 934661 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Who in thier right mind would drive in the winter? I couldn't stomach it in summer.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:52 | 934662 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

People with a cdl and clean record and experience are hard to find. It is not the life for a family man either. I wouldnt be surprised if it were true but that is a highly specialized market....again a mismatch between skills desires and jobs...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:57 | 934676 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Can't argue that point, but by the time he sorts thru the first 1,000 applicants, orders the trucks and gets them delivered I have a funny feeling he could have them trained and ready to roll in no time. IMO, it was a bullshit statement.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | 934625 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Just BTFD on this ponzi fraud.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:33 | 934784 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

Someday soon, just BTFD won't work.  Maybe that day is today.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:47 | 934636 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

This report is confirmation in clearest terms that the middle class is being destroyed in America. From where I sit, management continue to see strong demand and pay increases in many industries while worker bees in this country continue to see their jobs evaporate. We are marching towards a 2 class economy at a rapid pace. There is nothing good in this data whatsoever. Even Liesman struggles to put a positive spin on this.

I think it's time to start holding this President, who pimped the lower and middle class for votes, accountable on why his results are diamatrically opposed to his rhetoric.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:21 | 934752 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

We are stuck -- the USD reserve currency status requires us to accept outsourcing of jobs -- like ballast in a hot air balloon, jobs have to be outsourced to keep the balloon flying (also increased productivity due to technology may also be reducing employment). This arrangement allows the US to consume way more precious commodity from the rest of the world by merely issuing paper. Net, net very beneficial for the US economy but the benefits are not evenly shared by Americans -- goes to top tier and the bottom gets by on welfare... 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:48 | 934641 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I am not u wonk. Which u is this? The total of the.first five u's? Someone help me out here. I cant trade the u so i dont know much about it. It is the cumulative.total 1 thru 5 isnt it?.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:41 | 935339 andybev01
andybev01's picture

This is my second offer; I will pay you to throw away the period key from your keyboard.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:49 | 934648 profoundlogic
profoundlogic's picture

But this is great news!  Unemployment is down to 9%.  We should rush to buy more stocks leveraged to the hilt with FED fiat money.  Pay no attention to the underlying value of the assets of the company you are buying.  Value is relative when you can BTFD.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:50 | 934651 Racer
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:53 | 934663 snowball777
snowball777's picture

In a sense, she's right: we're missing jobs from new businesses not being created.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:50 | 934654 campag
campag's picture

good day for a flash c.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:51 | 934660 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

This trend will continue strongly. The Fed's biflationary policy is almost telling US corporations to send their jobs offshore. For multinationals it's obvious: you can't pass increasing input costs on to the US consumer. But you can in some rising economies. For US domestic corporations they have to continue aggressive cost cutting as input costs rise. and the only way to do that is layoffs, outsourcing to Asia, cutting benefits, pay and hours worked. Weakening the US consumer still further. 

Here's a beautiful picture of biflation for all of you: The economy is technically out of recovery and in to early expansion. Yet look at jobs: flat at best. The divergence is part of the underlying theme of the increasing cost of middle class life in America, unsupported by economic opportunity. 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:15 | 935225 RKDS
RKDS's picture

Or the snowflakes in upper management could take some cuts like everyone else is expected to.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:53 | 934665 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Where did the data (and the chart) come from?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:54 | 934667 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Why would anyone want a full-time job when you can live off the Bernank largesse?

Collecting food stamps is a full-time job all by itself.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:02 | 934690 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Verizon selling iPhones like hotcakes!  Guess all those unemployed still have money for expensive toys. 

I just don't get it!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:16 | 935232 RKDS
RKDS's picture

All I could come up with was that they must have better credit cards than I do.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:02 | 935444 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Yes, you really don't get it

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:04 | 935458 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

There are tens of milions of gubmint employees

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:03 | 934691 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

NILF increased by 17.5% over the last 10 years...the population increased by 9% over the same period. NILF should increase about on par with population not double. The US has a long term problem.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:03 | 934692 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Laughing my arse off here. Best comedy sell side has probably ever provided. Everybody's telling how strong the report was, again. Like last month and the month before even as the headline and the internals are just horrible. Best report i read was simply "Ignore the number". This of course from the same source who "advised" to ignore the small business survey.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:04 | 934694 Wheatman
Wheatman's picture

For FU&% sake Tyler can you give is some REAL statistics. There are ONLY TWO stats I want. And I want them NOW. OK.

 

1. Raw real number of people employed part time and full time - graphed over 5 years.

2. These figures as a % of population.

That is all we need. So get it or I am never reading ZH again.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:05 | 934696 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

What is real?

generally accepted practices are often called real. Is money real? Money is a generally accepted concept, it is paper that is real...

most things are relative...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:06 | 934698 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Ok. I guess it is always good.to check the link. This includes people who have looked for work in the last year but not in last four weeks plus two other groups who claim they will take a job but havent looked in the last 12 months? Lazy fuctards....i pounded the pavement all day every day for a week as a kid and got a dishwasher.job at western sizlin. Lazy fuctards deserve to starve....lazy ass.motherfuckers. check the link...the lazy fuctards wont.get off.their ass and look.for a job.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:14 | 934720 alexwest
alexwest's picture

CHECK 10YY BOND.. SHIT HITTING FAN... WE GONNA HAVE NICE & WARM SPRING..

Alex

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:14 | 934724 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Thank God QE2 continues drive down long-term rates.

Oh wait.  I had the chart upside down.   Just how long is the Fed duration?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:29 | 934773 DavidC
DavidC's picture

So, presumably the reason the Dow and S&P are on the way up again today, not to forget the Russell 2000, is because of the certainty of more of The Bernank's shenanigans. After all, it's a recovery isn't it?

DavidC

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:37 | 934805 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Tyler,

Can we get a thread with information that includes "unemployed not looking for work" as well as "temporary college student due to bad economy". I am really interested to see how many full time college students there are right now and what the real implications of that would be.

Considering discouraged workers brings unemployment up to around 20%, I would take a guess and say that full time college students brings the numbers up to around 30-35%.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:39 | 934814 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Here is the real problem..

Via JOLTS
~3.2 million job openings

6.6 Million NILF that want a job and ~9 million on some sort of unemployment for a total of 15.6 million looking for a job with only 3.2 million job openings....5 times as many people as jobs. There be the problem.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:42 | 934833 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

What of the demographic effect of baby boomers retiring?  Are they, perhaps, the source of the falling UE rate?  Retirees are no longer "looking for a job".

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:02 | 935153 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The jobs could have been saved if :-


The government had let the big banks fail.

OR
Pressed criminal charges on the people in top management positions of those banks for fraud and changed the management of those banks before offering it a bailout.

Immediatel­­y Reinstated the Glass Stegall Act.


Government could have used the bailout money to fund infrastruc­­ture projects around the country which would have created jobs immediatel­­y. Instead they chose to hand free money over to their buddies (same people who caused the crises because of speculatio­­n and leverage) for speculatio­­n in stock and commoditie­­s markets.

Taken quicker steps to reduce housing loan principle in order to make it easier for the majority of the population to pay their monthly installmen­­ts while staying in their homes thus avoiding foreclosur­­e.

 

But of course we can keep on dreaming.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:37 | 935314 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Rush just referenced you, Tyler!  Twice!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:40 | 935333 digalert
digalert's picture

There's only several million listening to Rush...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:11 | 935483 remaxagnt
remaxagnt's picture

there is now a link on drudge report linking to this article. tyler you just went mainstream!!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:54 | 935397 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Yep, that's the one that unmasks the real UE problem.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:22 | 936511 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are doing everything they can to make bad news good and horrible news even better.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:22 | 936512 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are doing everything they can to make bad news good and horrible news even better.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:22 | 936514 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are doing everything they can to make bad news good and horrible news even better.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:22 | 936516 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are doing everything they can to make bad news good and horrible news even better.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!