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Perspective Blast From The Most Recent Parabolic Market Past
From a cheat sheet circulating way back when the first time we saw a solid downside reaction to a parabolic market in October 2007
Reacting to data and market releases:
- weak data = Fed ease, stocks rally
- consensus data = lower volatility, stocks rally
- strong data = economy strengthening, stocks rally
- bank loses $4bln = bad news out of the way, stocks rally
- oil spikes = great for energy companies, stocks rally
- oil drops = great for the consumer, stocks rally
- dollar plunges = great for multinationals, stocks rally
- dollar spikes = lowers inflation, stocks rally
- inflation spikes = will inflate all assets, stocks rally
- inflation drops = improves earnings quality, stocks rally
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Obama commits series of crimes, stocks rally.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/13/internal-memo-confirms-bi_n_258...
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/08/breaking-white-house-confirms-...
Your links are no good
The change folks can believe in. It matters not the party, the action is nearly the same.
Exactly right. Now connect the dots.
1. Somebody controls BOTH parties.
2. That somebody is in charge.
3. The lib vs. cons debate is made up to distract us.
4. So that nothing gets done, except
5. What those in charge want.
The question is, who's in charge? The answer, if you look, is fairly obvious.
I'll bite. Who?
Blood sucking vampire squid.
Accepting everything that is in those two blogposts as 100% true, uh, where is there even one crime, let alone a series of them?
I'm just sayin' . . .
More Bush crimes getting exposed = AMERICA F*** YEAH!!!, stocks rally
haha welcome to the twilight zone
It is illegal for the market to go down.
Except that little episode last Fall where we crashed back to 1997 levels and erased 10 years of prosperity.
Apparently the powers that be are very, very good -- except for when they're disastrously incapable.
Market growth occurs regularly and incrementally. Market falls are rare, unpredictable, uncontrollable and thousands of times more powerful.
we are in the know
That pretty much sums up this equity market lately. I see the bonds are even rallying (10yr) for several days even before a major auctions this week so the writing is on the wall for a correction.
Boo Yah!
And all it cost for this rally was an additional $2T deficit over the next decade -
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/08/cumulative-deficit-estimate-for-...
Govt spending has almost nothing to do with it.
Fed money printing has almost everything to do with it.
And still another $500B - $1T of money to be printed in the next 4 months. What do you think that is going to do to the market ratios?
That's a good thing as it is 'less worse then expected'!!!
What if the main issues were not equities per se,but debts and required capital increase for many corporations?
The world is and will be flooded with debts by year 2010
Few debts restructuration have taken place but for the somehow feasible one,the left over numerous are in the drawers.
Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan is expanding efforts to attract buyers to the nation’s growing debt load, flooding the backs of taxi cabs for the first time with pamphlets in the hopes of getting retirees to invest more money in bonds.
Bloomberg
“Government bonds are worth another look,” the Ministry of Finance says in its latest advertisement, which features a picture of 37-year-old Junko Kubo, a former anchor on Japan’s public broadcaster NHK. Individuals can buy government debt at local banks for as little as 10,000 yen, or about $106, according to the ads. The ministry is hawking the bonds on its Web site with the slogan, translated from Japanese, “Peace of mind. Piece of happiness.”
But are they raising yields to make them attractive?
This kind of "analysis" was popular in the early 1990s. Worked about as well then as it does now.
The more things change...
markets go higher = bullish trend, stocks go higher
markets go down = healthy correction, stocks go higher
At this rate, we will be at all time highs by January 2010. Happy New Year!
Don't go using that brain! Because everything is awesome!
Ha ha! You are sooo F***ing cynical...I love it!
Dont think the markets been in the red for longer than 15 minutes since the drubbing last monday.
So I roll over in bed this morning, turn the TV on to CNBS to see what the futures are doing. They've got one of their clown commentators on there saying "housing is only 3% of GDP."
Seems that same quote a couple of years ago got us into a hell of a lot trouble, didn't it?
That's awesome. That's the exact first thing I heard today when I turned on the TV when I woke up.
Fine, housing is 3% of GDP. However, home equity (or lack thereof) is a huge percentage of the average "consumers" net worth, or now their biggest liability. They failed to make the correlation, considering how many times they spout off about the consumer being 70% of the economy.
Switched the channel over to bloomberg as soon as that segment finished and haven't looked back.
And the little prick never mentioned what happened when they leveraged that 3% forty times, did he?
My theory is the government manufactured this rally for at least three reasons:
1) No political will for TARP II. They goosed the markets so the banks could sell equity and improve their capital position.
2) With no economic activty, the only lever left was the "wealth effect" (people increase consumption as their wealth increases. So far it's failed, but they tried).
3) Probably the most important reason, is they needed to generate big dick capital gains to help plug the gaping hole in the budget deficit. They absolutely DO NOT want those gains to qualify as long term capital gains and get preferrential tax treament. Many tech stocks bottomed in October, and most indicies bottomed in March. I believe the government is going to manufacture a swoon sometime between now and March that will scare the pants off everybody and cause panic selling so they can collect a boatload of short term capital gains taxes and show improvement on the deficit.
Yes! Yes! and Maybe!
Good stuff. I would add
4) Save the pension funds from immediate collapse
In general it is safe to assume 'they" are quite
content with any strategy that pushes the pain/
collapse into the future.
Sounds about right. And what better way to juice a market then to flood it with liquidity.
You're correct with point 1 in your analysis for sure.
If I remember correctly, it was Germany which declared early on they would not agree to either more bailouts or more stimulus. US had to follow suit or go it alone. Besides, the measure was increasingly unpopular at home also.
2 has been on my mind lately. They gave it a shot, oh well. Used all the tricks of the trade and then some to get the ship off the ground but alas, it failed. Most of us here would probably have projected the failure and are now wondering if the measures were solely aimed at recapitalizing the elite at tax payers expense. Guilotines might be next if that ever comes out.
Not so sure about 3 yet. The sell off will come when nobody expects it and the last bear has turned bullish. Last year's events were created at the push of a button as billions of dollars got drained from markets in hours. It was a cataclysmic event that helped get Obama elected. Make no mistake about that. Question is what came first, the Obama campaign or the market crash.
The game is increasingly crooked and the chicanry becomes more and more obvious to any retail investor. Having lost phenomenal wealth last year, I would think that many are going to sell into the last stages of the rally and going into cash.
Again, the Chinese gamblers will blink first.. The signs are lining up nicely.
looks you just don't know how the stock market trading works
"I left Wall Street for the first time in 1991. I was obsessed with price formation. I couldn't understand from the screen how prices were determined. It took me six months to be able to read prices in the pit. Locals basically read information from the order flow and squeezed the weak party. There's always a pack of five or six dominating locals who abruptly change the prices, who bid a lot higher than the previous offer and have the guts to do it, and the rest of them follow." Nassim Taleb
* world ends = eliminates competition, stocks rally
ause it is all red...and i have it on good authority all those people are communist sympathizers.
In the end all that matters is love...
I love you all
Yup, and now that the transfer has been made with the first deflationary wave, will soon be consiladated at the end of the reflation, we´ll get another wave of deflation to pull back all this new money with some exchange value and then the poom commences. I´m long dollars via the Aussie, in retrospect I should have shorted the Pound, we´ll see how the S&P correlation holds up with the DX.
If the bubble bursts, they'll just outlaw selling. Last time, they arbitrarily, capricously made shorting of various issues illegal on a day-to-day bases, many of them issued by heavy naked shorters. They'll build on that and just make all selling illegal. Bingo, bubble propped up until they can debase the currency until the bubblicious valuations make sense. Meanwhile, the big boys will sell and short in dark pools. Why don't we just all write our tax checks to Goldman?