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Peter Costa: "The US Government Will Be Totally Bankrupt In A Year And A Half"
Not much optimism from one of CNBC's favorite bulls. Yet even Costa is wrong about today's market direction as 7 shares of SPY move the market up by almost half a percent. In the meantime, the gold creep higher continues.
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Debt repudiation and soverign default are great for the market.
The only thing better would be thermonuclear war.
(/permabull)
18 months? Party ON dude!
I would just like to thank the NY bullion banks and their naked shorts division (now armed only with pea-shooters) for trying to keep gold reasonably affordable for me.
Uh-oh... whoever forgot to properly medicate Peter Costa so he could exert the proper bullish exuberance must have just been involuntarily added to the unemployment rolls.
Ane let's hope gold and equities decouple when equities begin to head back down.
well, if the us is going to be bankrupt you surely wouldn't sell and hold dollars.
Great post over at Slope
What Isn't Working in 2009
* Elliott wave
* Fractal analysis
* Historical analogs
* Classic pattern application
* Volume analysis
* Fundamental analysis
* Sentiment as contrarian indicator
* Seasonality
* Intermarket analysis
* Sector rotation
What Is Working in 2009
* Buying stuff cuz Obama and Cramer told me to.
We have truly come full circle. 2009 is 1999, and the Greater Fool Theory reigns. This is getting really, really demoralizing.
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/11/the-distressing-tally.html
I've seen all of those work (elliott wave, fractal analysis notwithstanding as I am not fully familiar with them).
And if you think they aren't working, then why keep using them?
What also isn't working in 2009:
20% of the American workforce
Why are people so surprised by the rally?
“In the economic carnage of the last 10 years, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange has almost been this one beacon of light,” Russell Loubser, chief executive officer of South Africa’s stock exchange, said in an interview on Jan. 20.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=azBA_vSF1Lg8
Tim Knight is an utter MORON.
Clearly Mr. Costa is letting the camera take his hyperbole to a whole new level. As anyone from the administration will tell you, as long as the Federal Reserve is sheltered from external inspection and audit, we can create or retain jobs, offer free health care, subsidize housing and automobilie purchases, keep the world free from bad brown people, and import enough poorly made Chinese goods to keep the economy humming along like gangbusters FOREVER.
Bankrupt government? That's just CRAZY talk. Perhaps Mr. Obama can convince Mr. Costa he is wrong by sending him some kind of colored magnetic ribbon to put on his car, or a flag pin to wear on his lapel. That should do it.
"Perhaps Mr. Obama can convince Mr. Costa he is wrong by sending him some kind of colored magnetic ribbon to put on his car, or a flag pin to wear on his lapel."
Hecho en China of course.
ummm, isn't the usa bankrupt now?
yeppers.
Yes I suppose since QE is essentially defaulting.
B/R means that an organization can still function, witness GM, Citi, et al.
The US government on the other hand is a flopping, beached whale. It passed bankruptcy, every Chapter and verse, decades ago.
There really is no business or legalese definition for an organization that can xerox money at will to pay its bills.
Actually there, and it's called a FRAUD.
And that is what our government is committing on the savers of this nation for the benefit of the borrowers.
Insolvent, but not yet bankrupt. Just like all the major banks.
yes since 1933 and thanks to dear old franklin or whatever his real name was....
That's exactly what I was gonna say deadhead. Great minds etc., you know.
bankrupt? that's impossible.
sheila bair: "we can not run out of money"
Naa, they are writing bum checks that we taxpayers will have to make good on down the road with a reduced standard of living...
Does a $65 trillion negative net worth still count as bankrupt now????????????
why are the rating agencies not talking about reducing the US rating?
I'm deciding on which country to move to when the US becomes uninhabitable.
I've narrowed it down to Australia, Costa Rica, or Singapore. Any thoughts?
Australia. More resources, nice people.
Australia is remote enough not to be in any danger of invasion though China is becoming a power that cannot be trusted. I would have said Canada also because their reserves are even more abundant (including fresh water reserves) but their excuse of an army is as useless as a couple of boy scouts with slingshots. They stand no chance when the USoA decides they need more resources and basically walks right over the border.
Canada has the greatest defense system on earth;
tolerance of cold weather.
You rednecks will freeze your nards off before you
reach Barrie
No problem. We have the greatest offense system to counter that -- Global warming.
+10 And a large swath of Canucks know how to "hunt."-
+1 eh. Spoken like a true Hoser!
I would have guessed they would have drowned in the gulf as they looked for our country down there first!
It will be worth it if it means bringing Freedom and Democracy to Canukistan.
You know the Canukistanis envy us for it.
Especially those near the Athabasca Tar Sands of Northern Alberta.
Our young boys and girls in uniform will be honored to bear any burden and meet any hardship to bring that noble cause to it's rightful conclusion as ordained by God.
I grew up in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Some 60% of Canadians live south of that.
Now I don't care who you are. That there's funny.
Of the worlds 10 deadliest snakes, Australia has 12 of them.
Of the worlds 10 deadliest spiders, Australia has 15 of them.
.
Dewd, who taught you math?
His coach kept making him give 110 percent. It had consequences and repercussions.
duplicate post, sorry.
There's a good reason we passive people are living in the cold, mosquito infested boreal muskeg. No one else wanted it. It really is that bad. And our fresh water is polluted with beaver poop. Seriously...don't even bother coming up here...please don't.
You may want to look again at just how far the Aussie police state has progressed recently. It's somewhere between the US and UK.
no we're not , stay put
You are overlooking the obvious: Russia. In addition to huge domestic natural resources, their military/police can enforce social order. Plus, you can always escape to a happy place through ubiquitous consumption of inexpensive, high quality vodka.
I like this choice too. I think Russia will be a major power in 10-20y
double post, sry
lol, several problems though: it's a nightmare to get a visa, it is cold, you are almost obliged to know the language.
Not to mention Russia is a mafia state masquerading as an oligarchy. You have no rights in Russia.
They need to catapault their propaganda!
Russia is going downhill faster than the US. They just are more focused on natural resources. I expect wholesale Chinese immigration to Russia in a decade or two.
China will have invaded/occupied Russia in 20 years.
When is the last time China invaded anyone?
1979 - The Chinese tried to invade Vietnam, but it didn't work out so well. They lost approximately 26,000 troops in one month and were only able to advance 15 miles even though they outnumbered the Vietnamese 4:1. Killed a shitload of civilians though and burned everything during their withdrawal.
Tibet-1956
You mean the fermented kool-aid we've been drinking isn't quality? I thought double bubble was for getting hammered quick, not a tip to Greenspend to ramp up financialization and allow for effective negative interest rates.
Naive me.
Norway. A petro-state without all the baggage associated with most of them. Insanely high standard of living. Running a budget surplus of close to 10% of GDP. Politically stable. Strong currency fundementals, and not part of EU. 3.2% unemployment. Just look at the back page of a recent issue of the Economist and you will notice that Norway stands out in the stats presented.
Also great women.
SSSSHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Don't ruin it!
This is all true. However: when the oil runs out, we're fu**ed. Look at the production profile of Norway and you'll see we are running out. The "welfare state" now has one out of every four members of the workforce dependent on some sort of social security scheme. This is not an easily reversible policy for phony ass politicians...also, the socialist govt's double standard, bullshit rhetoric will most likely drive you crazy. The women do make up for it though.
Norwegian
Just try and emigrate there.I don't think you will find citizenship or a welcoming party.
It's as closed a society as Japan.
Tranche, they will not let you in.
If they do, you better pay your taxes ON ALL ASSETS & INCOME flows regardless of where they might be sitting or on deposit or you will do time.
Don't know much about the women there. You seem to think you do.
can't comment on Australia- but Costa Rica and Singapore are pretty cool-
Singapore is somewhat of a totalitarian police state- but nice and clean
None of the above, but Costa Rica if you must choose among those three. Australia is facing serious resource issues, water most of all, and may not be such a happy place down the road. Singapore is a police state.
It's only bad if you're spray painting cars.. Just ask Mike Fay.
move to korea, the greatest country in the world period
Yes, the North is very scenic, and in the South, they really know how to play baseball. Even the fights are interesting.
"This is the strangest thing I have ever seen in a baseball game."
Korea has a love-hate relationship with foreigners.
Uraguay has nice beaches and cheap real estate. It is also ranked second least corrupt nation in SA behind Chile.
I've heard that New Zealand is nice, and favorable to small business. Notwithstanding, skiing too.
Didn't they also film the LOTR trilogy there?
Feeling like a hobbit........
New Zealand won't let you in.
Unless you are a sheep
What about New Zealand or Uruguay?
Australia is toast. Burns up more and more every year, has serious water issues too. Friend of a friend moved to Costa Rica with 1/2 million bucks. Was living large, started a little bar/restaurant was doing great until he was hacked to death with machetes. Singapore, scary regulations on everything. Extreme population density. I'm looking too and can't figure it out. Too rainy in Vancouver. How about Malta?
My sister's been to Malta a few times. Nice weather & people. If you live in Valetta, it's pricey, but if you want a house on the other islands, it's OK. Sm house 70-100K. Not sure what you'd do for a living out there, I reckon get a fishing boat.
The big picture is that if you have enough money, anyplace works. Switzerland is still a default escape. I guess it depends on what you can do in a given locale (if you have to keep working for a living), what kind of weather you like. There are days I'd like to be in the Marquesas islands (part of Tahiti), no power, internet, etc, just fishing and relaxing. Other times, I want to be in Hong Kong in the thick of it. Me personally, I'd stick with Hong Kong. You can get a house in the outer areas, not too bad. Plenty of work, transport and communication-- and good food, gotta have that.
I've always wondered about Malta since the days of the pro wrestler, "Baron" Mikel Scicluna.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikel_Scicluna
There was nothing better than Hoard Finkle , circa 1978, announcing in Madison Square Garden.
I'll bet with a little embellishment in the right places, that story would make an awesome movie.
Singapore is the clear winner in this comparison. Why? Rule of Law. A benign police state is a very good thing.
Contrast this with Costa Rica... great place. Beautiful. But no standing army and NO CHANCE of upholding the rule of law when TSHTF. Folks relocating to to central america will be robbed/extorted for the rest of their lives... robbed by criminals and extorted by the state. Count on it.
Australia is an excellent middle-of-the-road choice. Water and resource issues can be mitigated by choosing the right property and other preparations, just like the US.
+1
Texas - after the secession
+1
+2
Why not Canada. It seems safe enought and there are plenty of resources.
Does anyone find it incredibly hilarious that Dodd Reid Frank Pelosi Obama et al can srsly push a trillion dollar health care plan, increase the military presence overseas and increase taxation on an increasingly unemployed group of people all while the nation's government owes more than anyone in this generation or the next could possibly pay it off?
rotflmao - not
The way they are pushing healthcare plan, makes me think that they don't see any kind of recovery anytime soon. Rather they plan to create a safety net for all those unemployed who lost their private insurance and replace it with government provided one. They probably hope that it's going to prevent a major civil unrest in situation when unemployment stays high for a prolonged period of time. But no, of course no one is thinking that this is going to continue for decades and no one is planning to pay that off.
You're giving them too much credit. They're simply attempting to add the other bookend to complete their nanny state control agenda. Between cap and tax and health care, the USG will have purview over what we eat, what we smoke, whether we exercise, how warm our house is, whether we water our lawns, what kind of light bulbs we use, how much we drive, the kind of vehicle we drive, and what kind of medical treatment we can have. The only thing they won't regulate is sex--because they believe in liberty, you see.
The religionists already regulate sex, anyways.
Naaah, I think both you and Boris have been drinking Stoner Kool-Aid. That "healthcare reform" (more aptly, health insurance changes bill) is all about a future proposed speculative market and backdoor bailout of the health insurance industry, with some flow to the banksters.
While, as we all should know by now, that cap and trade (as, curiously enough several ethical EPA types went public on yesterday) is simply another securitized instrument market for Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and the oil cartel (as in carbon derivatives & carbon offset market).
"backdoor bailout of the health insurance industry, with some flow to the banksters."
Actually, it's more like a front-door speculation in fantasy land: They still think the bailing out of bankrupt banks was such a smooth moooove, that someone thinks they can buy favors from health insurance companies with fake money and get ahead of the "Who's Failing First?" game show.
It has nothing to do with healthcare. We spend enough on health insurance/'care' already to send every American citizen to medical school in China. (from Harper's Index)
Actually, there isn't a whole lot of thinking involved. Just who is bribing who for how much, how fast.
Like Blankfein, they think this is God's will.
Added bonuses for doing God's will: re-election which begets ... inside scoop to good fortune & wealth, private jets, elevated social status, hookers galore, fame, rubbing elbows with cheezy celebs & royalty, dudes with mirrored glasses, & black suits & suv's for personal protection (who needs to own your own gun when you've got uncle sam's highly trained killing machines to protect you?). Did I miss anything? Oh yes, of course: possible tax-incentived gov't appointments and returning to private sector taxpayer-funded executive banking jobs.
It's so cool. I gotta run for congress next year.
Maybe equities will also decouple from a bankrupt U.S. government? Seems to be the consensus.
10 yr auction in an hour and a half. Anyone expect a dollar rally soon?
It's underway now.
Ain't free markets grand?
what free markets ?
After a while, when there is so much obvious intervention by the authorities, the need to intervene dissipates. When everyone expects the $US to rally in advance of the auctions, the $US rallies even without official intervention because everyone expects it and acts accordingly. After a while, the market itself does the Fed's job...
Does that make sense?
A self-fulfilling prophecy.
Yep.
Yes. Basic behavioral psychology: a conditioned response.
Che is dead...as are 100 million victims of the last century's central planners, dude.
Tim forgot astrology.
He didn't like to hear that. Banned!
Buy SPY off the successful auction bounce. You'd think a sprinkle of bad news in advance of the auction, to get the herd of suddenly-dollar-bulls running would be in order right ...about. . . NOW.
#125820 has it right. Being right = being broke, go with the Clampdown and watch your portfolio grow (but be ready to jump ship, and have some gold handy). Tis the play of the day if you want to trade. Ain't no mountain high enough baby.
Ya but won't america just run like one of it's bankrupt airlines forever?
I stopped watching Cnbc a long time ago, but isn't this the guy whose analysis usually boils down to "I got a good feeling about this"?
If nothing else it was kinda sad to see Mr. Haines mess in his depends right there on the floor of the NYSE.
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
Why do you even quote this putz??
This blog is getting worse every day... Zerohedge is on deathwatch.
Totally ridiculous commentary. The U.S. ain't going bankrupt and the pain it will surely feel will be felt everywhere on the globe except if you got a nice island somewhere and are self-sufficient. Every state will be a slave state.
Good luck to Kareem!
To me, the term Bankrupt, in the traditional sense, is not applicable to a sovereign nation with an independent fiat based central bank. The accounting methods for the US, and by extension the FED, are not designed to support full disclosure, and hence I believe are unethical in the spirit of accurately presenting the facts. The US "accounting" is experiencing something beyond Bankrupt, beyond Debt Default, an era of dollar wealth destruction.
Here is my simplistic mental US model.
Largely, the US operates hand to mouth on a "CASH" basis. So I tend to look at cash flows as the best general accounting model. I think net tax revenues (includes FICA and income tax) provide more clues as to the health of the nation than the GDP number. It was interesting that net tax revenues showed a similar stimulus pop just like GDP. For FY2009 Rev should have come in around $1.8T, and with stimulus went to $2.1T. So there was some fiat stimulus velocity in FY2009. The Rev number comes out every month.
Looking at rev over the past 10 years and the magnitude of debt deleverage, we will be very lucky to average $2T rev over the next few years. The presidents budget has deficits 10 years out. So, with $12T of public debt (we know this is much larger due to the FEDisms), net interest around $400B per year, and the entitlement programs (now to include the health care entitlement), that we do not have the political will to reign in spending and fix the problems with the FED.
To pay down debt we would have to some how cut costs enough to have a surplus from discretionary spending. When you look at whats coming in and whats going out, and the FED debt error +2T to +10T, its obvious the US will never be able to pay without debasing the currency. Lets say our obligations were really $15T, and we generated a 500B surplus to pay it down, thats 30 years to pay it off without inflation. No, the only path is to inflate the currency until something breaks. The question is how it breaks and what is the time line?
Anyway this is my quickie version.
+!
+1000
+1000000000000000000000000000000
Spot on, Mark.
I've always felt tax revenue is the best way to judge a gov't's solvency. Taxes are a government's income. If you were to judge whether a person is insolvent you would look at their income compared to how much they owe. A gov't is no different except for the money printing ability.
WAR
DEFAULT
DEFAULT by CURRENCY DEBASEMENT
I agree ,currency debasement is the only option that works on a global scale that doesn't feel like a direct assault to sheeple.
That is very insightful. I would like to add a couple of thoughts:
1) Bankruptcy is not really a government thing, although a government can declare bankruptcy, you seldom witness a liquidation and there is no large-scale political area within the US that has experienced a liquidating event in the sense of "no governance." If such an event were to occur, it would be the greatest thing for the free market you have ever experienced, if order could somehow be maintained (which I personally think it could without a doubt be done). Imagine, the economy running on all its legs, no crutches or artificial hindrances weighing it down.
2) Even when companies go bankrupt, it takes forever for them to actually die and most emerge from bankruptcy without debt. I'm watching my local Blockbuster store liquidate, and the parent company is still alive (for now). It could take years for any decent-sized entity to fall apart completely. Maybe decades, in the case of the fed.gov, a major catalyzing catastrophe notwithstanding.
3) I don't understand all the "get out of the US" sentiment. You do realize that in a collapse scenario, most of the US would manage just fine, right? I mean, we don't need our overlords, we are used USED to having them. We can survive without so much government on our shoulders. I know Baby Boomers do not believe it, however. Most of our fears are due to people having foregone conclusions about what can and cannot be done. Reality is quite different than that.
The end of the federal government is such a scary thing to so many people. It is my greatest dream, though. Imagine, putting all those worthless assholes out on the street, if only for a short time. Making them feel useless instead of the other way around. And spare me all the "hordes from the city will kill you" garbage. Yup, they might, or they might be kill en masse when they try to disrupt civilized people--killed because they are conniving thieves and leeches who produce nothing and are only tolerated because we have had the luxury of doing so.
Plus theres also the fact that the debt is impossible to pay down because of the way the FR system is structured.
Couldn't one just stay in the good ol' USA by buying some inflation insurance - PM's, Mining & Agriculture Stocks, Real Estate? Or is it that we have too many citizens (and non-citizens) spoiled rotten by their entitlements, so taxes will become too devastating to have a promising future regardless?
If you are caucasian you only have a few choices which ar ein the main in europe. And it would offer you a future if you have a family or wanting to start one. You cant raise your kids in Singapore or Costa Rica or South Africa or Brzail. Thats a dead end. Uruguay? Argentina? Then just move to Italy. Tremendous education and culture.
Mr. Costa needs to be invited to the White House for a free beer (and nuts)..haha
What is Mr. Haines doing out of the studio without his Gusto electric scooter or oxygen?
The Black Horse defines a measure of wheat for a days wage and the inversion of the wine press that has filled the cup of fornication all nations have become drunk off of. This is the strong delusion of the leaders of nations, they are so convicted by their own judgment because, they have embraced the theft of the body of labor which represents the temple invaded by the King(s) of Babylon. The prophetic writing on the wall this trader has well defined, proclaims the ''found wanting'' nature of the new world order beast devouring the principle foundation of labor. There is no rate of return possible for this new world market whore and the beast she is riding will turn on her as a child in the womb of an the aborted principle representing all persons that accept the mark of the self devouring beast claiming dominion over the Lord of the Harvest. This is the mark of possession, which is the meaning of the name of Cain, the fruit equal with the current economic inversion and the wages of sin continuing to expand the devouring market contraction which is trumpeting the call of judgment. My friends, every divestment of provision reflects the capital gain that is eliminated the rate of return for all that buy, sell and trade this new global market beast. Wormwood has fallen upon the waters and the strong delusion it has dispersed stems from the shadow cast from the banks that represent the military force encamped in the spiritual valley of Armageddon and the literal Middle East region of Babylon which is Iraq etc... The military force of 911 and the market forces that imploded world trade has been erected by masons building a tomb for their own image. It is a bankrupt tomb and it is the Black Hole of a bottomless pit, all that enter there in shall perish as if having never been risen, for the principle reflects the judgment of a fool that rejects salvation for short term gain. Like the body of a fool, the spirit and the body of this market shall perish because it has aborted life, liberty, freedom and justice. It is time for great tribulation my friends but, first you shall see the false beast of the beast ride upon it's delusion for a short time, then shall sudden destruction come. The prophetic plagues are about to be fully unleashed and the false peace is about to be sealed with all the nations and Israel as the mark of the beast seals the Saints bound by the love of God in Christ. Stand fast my friends, do not think to buy, sell or trade expecting 3 years of judgments not to fall upon this generation suddenly, for if you are so unsealed and marked as the beast in the field the 4 other judgments to come after shall not pass over any house where the blood of the lamb is not sealed upon the door. This is the end my friend. Take heed, stand fast, do no harm. The Truth is not a choice and the valley of decision has found your feet and the meaning of life trumpets the path of salvation now. If the truth has not chosen you, you shall be gathered with the tares. Fear not, go with God in Christ and perish not.
put down the crack pipe
Uh, that's hash pipe Mr Ass-As-Sin. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination You could at least flow with the music when shooting yourself in the foot by offering up the image of the rags you wish to cover disbelief by, Mr. Weezer. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeMFZ05YgDY Your weakness must not be your witness. The market delusion is way beyond the weakens of Saints my friend. Don't let the strong delusion overcome your common sense. This system is the sub-prime example of an idiot crack head offer from a dealer, every time the market is bought, traded or sold, the reaping reward of a perverted and corrupt suicidal whore, that gives everything to her pimp, is defined wanting. It's OK man, you do not have to remain a suicidal punk'd out whore, just put down the keyboard and stand fast. You are not being judge by your judgment .....yet. Keep clicking though and judgment will surely come sooner, rather than later.
Peter Costa giving investing advice =
using a chimp as my brain surgeon
Peter Costa IQ of a turtle
CNBC needs to find people who have IQ's higher than someone with Down Syndrome .... thus , no more floor brokers who barely finished high school
+1
SilverIsKing,
Costa Rica has mosquitoes the size of dogs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SEOMMdZ1sI
new world order coming.
hmmm, now where have i heard that before? well hell. now they say it on the mouthpiece of the establishment cnbc...imagine that.....albeit at 2:00 am in the morning....
Going by the actual data, and double-entry bookkeeping (the classical kind, not fantasy finance) and subtracting debt growth from the GDP (and further comprehending why they switched the name from GNP to GDP), the USG went bankrupt, technically speaking, back in 2004. Hope everybody got that!
move outta the country? naw. give me one acre in any state with a panhandle, and i'll be just fine.
ALL of the states are going to be panhandling.
Uh-oh... whoever forgot to properly medicate Peter Costa so he could exert the proper bullish exuberance must have just been involuntarily added to the unemployment rolls.
Ane let's hope gold and equities decouple when equities begin to head back down.
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