Peter Schiff On The Phony US Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

"Most of the forecasters out there can only see what's happening right now. That's why they are always so wrong. They could never connect the dots... Our phony economy is being propped up by the stimulus and artificially low interest rates, and all of that has to come to an end if we want to stop the dollar from collapsing."

Truer words have rarely been spoken.

 

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D.O.D.'s picture

"Truer words have rarely been spoken"

Maybe not, but I keep getting stopped out, I'm packing some green shoots and washin' it down with some kool-aide, and I'm sidin' with Dennis Kneale, this recession is over.... untill it comes back... then I'll be on the short side, but all of this practicallity in the facts is killing my account...

phooey on pessimism, everything's f'n perfect, couldn't be f'n better, except if maybe if I actually had a F'N JOB!

I hate this market...

Anonymous's picture

Amen, brother

ShankyS's picture

DOD - It you can't beat 'em join 'em. Look at it this way, this may be the only time you can legally play on the side of the dealer with the rigged shoe. Take advantage of it while you can. They are not going to let the market fall until something "exterenal" and out of "their" control takes it away from them IMO. 

Oso's picture

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b497f5b6-8060-11de-bf04-00144feabdc0.html

 

What exactly do you think was going through everybody's minds the day before the Asian tigers rolled over in the late 90s?  I bet they were saying, "well, we KNOW sh*t is bad, but, i can get out before the music stops."

 

there is zero chance on earth i will go long.  Baltics are rolling over hard and fast.  slim chance their currency pegs hold.  What do you think happens after that?

dnarby's picture

I wish there was a way to give comments a +1, 'cause you'd get mine.

Anonymous's picture

I live in the Baltics (Estonia) and would gladly give him a +5.

There will come a day when the Baltics and rest of East Europe keel over, and this will get the big wave rolling.

Despite the local stock market being down -75% already, the ordinary people are only starting to really suffer. Empty retail space even in the middle of city starting to appear. Next winter will bring in true pain in every form imaginable.

Enjoy the happy warm summer days. They will not last for long.

Anonymous's picture

i have been hearing and reading warnings about eastern europe for months now, but so far, no dice. what really surprises me, is how they can get away with what they have gotten away with for so long and how they seem to be able to control things and make them happen when they want them to happen. amazing power.

Anonymous's picture

People in Eastern Europe might actually endure this crisis better than the rest of Europe. Many of us here do still remember poverty when living under influence/occupation of Soviet Empire and the hard times after its fall. Being used to lower living standars and less dependance on governments is a perk in this situation. I am not saying that Eastern Europes governments are better than western - they just cost less.

Alexander Supertramp's picture

"Most of the forecasters out there can only see what's happening right now. That's why they are always so wrong."  But I, a man named Schiff, am smarter than the rest of them, and of course I am right where they are all wrong.  Why?  Because if I ever stop saying this I'll have to shut my brokerage firm down and get a real job.

And in another bummer for market pessimists (in other words those in denial of what actually builds long-term wealth, instead choosing again to be fooled by white noise and short-term speculation/navel contemplation):

http://www.brightonhouseassociates.com/site/docs/research/2009-Q2.pdf

“The second quarter proved to be a positive one given all that has gone on in the past 12 months. Investors began to come out of their cash positions and take advantage of the many new opportunities that have arisen amidst the economic ash."

Only Hamlet's feel themselve's smarter than the market, especially with TD hard on the case of bringing it more and more transparency.  Really, you gotta get beyond the confusion between brokers pitching their wares and valid sources of investing information.  You're addicted, worse you're clueless to the sorry fact. Help does exist, here's to hoping more and more continue finding it sooner than later.

MarsyasX1's picture

"But I, a man named Schiff, am smarter than the rest of them, and of course I am right where they are all wrong.  Why?" Because it already happened once before, asshole. Peter Schiff WAS right and everyone else WAS wrong. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Bob Dobbs's picture

Speaking of the Kneale-Miester, did any of you read this?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1175-To-Dennis-Kneale-Youre-...

I like measured responses to flaming idiots.

 

Thanks for the Captcha; I missed it.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

FAZ & SRS volume trending just flipped. Hmmmmm

Fetch, WOPR

Sancho Ponzi's picture

Update: Now they're in a freaking free fall

Take that, reality!

Anonymous's picture

I'm gonna buy some SRS if it drops below $2. I figure I can lose a couple more grand to it.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

"Those shorting CRE and financials shall be hanged until dead"

by order of the NY Fed

Kaiser Soze's picture

FAZ down almost 50% since the reverse split.

silencedogood's picture

Phony economy and now CNBC: CNBC parent General Electric was accused by the Securities and Exchange Commission of misleading investors in 2002 and 2003 by reporting "materially false and misleading results in its financial statements." I wonder if CNBC engages in misleading investors by cherry picking data from reports.  There could be 9 out of 10 bad things in a report and CNBC will jump up in the air and point out the ONE good thing in a report when the other 9 completely counter their report.  No small wonder CNBC is losing so many viewers...

-Silence Dogood

Anonymous's picture

I love the $100 oil projections by energy energy traders (gee, wonder if they're still long?).

chumbawamba's picture

I love guys who think they know how markets work and who glibly set themselves up for total pwn@g3 with their faint disdain.

I am Chumbawamba.

Anonymous's picture

Oh, $100 is a sure thing. However, it will pass through $40 a couple of times on the way

Stuart's picture

When a Govt is sitting on this much debt, who says they want the dollar to stop collapsing.   Inflate your way out of the debt is a standard govt response.  Expect the buck to go lower. 

channel_zero's picture

I'm an ordinary retail investor that is trying to play along here.  I agree the dollar has to go lower.

But lower against what? I would assume the price of oil will continue to rise because of the dollar's devaluation.  But other than that, if the claim the USD is still the safest currency, then why in dog's name would I exchange it for swiss francs? (or whatever currency)

What's are positions a plain-vanilla retail investor can take?

chumbawamba's picture

Gold is your friend.

I am Chumbawamba, and I am also your friend.

Anonymous's picture

Dude all you ever talk about is gold. Stop spamming. It's just some lumpy stuff from the ground.

dnarby's picture

1/2 physical cash, 1/2 physical gold.

 

You are then covered whether there's runaway inflation or deflation.

 

That is the most conservative position.

chumbawamba's picture

Except for when the dollar collapses into a hyperinflationary holocaust.

Better: 1/2 physical gold, 1/2 physical silver.

THEN, you are covered.

I am Chumbawamba.

Anonymous's picture

Can I please have those 5 minutes of my life back again. Epic fail from UBS.

Anonymous's picture

Exactly. The problem I have with Schiff is separating the anti-Americanism with what he believes. Meaning, if I was going into a depression, I would much rather be an importing nation with allot of debt than has reserve status than an exporting nation with surpluses. The Great Depression was a good example of this in that the UK just defaulted, while the US got crushed. (aka Great Slump versus Great Depression)

In short... The debt problem is no big issue as long as we just dilute our way out of it.

As far as jobs... I am a firm believer than high unemployment just means that the reality of what a persons skills are worth versus that they are will (and able) to take are misaligned. Meaning, if the government wants to help with unemployment, passing fast track bankruptcy laws would be a great first step...

Anonymous's picture

Peter Schiff is not anti-American. He is anti-government and for good reason

Anonymous's picture

Any time someone talks about the "collapse" of a country that has world reserve status, they need their head examined...

I agree with a gradual decline simply, but any talk of our currency collapsing assumes that the free market determines our fate. Good old Ben has clearly shown that this is not the case.... Meaning, if the USD "collapses" then a good part of the world will drop off the map simply due to its reserve status...

chumbawamba's picture

The Market makes fools of everyone.  Even you.

I am Chumbawamba, and it's not nice to fool The Market.

Arm's picture

Really?  You are ignorant.  Empires do collapse.  The Roman Empire in particular collapsed largely due to hyperinflation and fiscal imbalances.  I am not saying it is likely to occur (extremely unlikely), but you are an ignoramus if you state it has never happened and never will repeat itself

Anonymous's picture

You need to become a much better student of history. they were warning iceland, argentina, etc. the crap happens almost overnight. You also have to understand that despite what fed says, all the policies point to same outcome. crap dollar and awful inflation. they just won't come out and tell the truth.

Anonymous's picture

+3.14.

glenlloyd's picture

Agreed, he's not anti-American, he's anti-'big government'. There's nothing unAmerican about wanting to preserve your wealth, the value of the dollar or the liberties guarenteed to all individuals by the Constitution.

Anonymous's picture

Debt IS the problem. Debt is the EXACT OPPOSITE of capitalism.

Anonymous's picture

what? that was a rediculous comment. so the only way to prosper is to eliminate all debt...that's just dumb.

Anonymous's picture

It's so hard to face the facts. Isn't it.
Tha US is a giant octopus with its tentacles wraped all around the globe and it blood funnel draining the most vluable resources so that 15 of americans or 0.000001% of the whole world can enjoy flights to private islands and cruises on vast yahts with multiple empty houses around.
It is also a literal blood funnel that drained so much blod starting from Africas slaves, trough indo-asian massacres, middle east permanent wars and corporate and drug enslavement of latin americas.
I know it felt good to be on top for a while but it is comming to the end.
Decoupling dollar from the world finances will sever that blood funnel, which Shiffer sees it comming. That octopus will retreat to its begining and do to its home layer as it did to the rest of the world for too long.
Enjoy

alpha charle's picture

Dude ... perhaps a few too many blood funnels on your brain.

So according to your logic everything we enjoy here is stolen from the rest of the world?  Chavista Economics in action?

Get back under the rock from whence you came, troll.

Anonymous's picture

It hurts, doesn't it?

Cheeky Bastard's picture

the truth is a bitch, isnt it 

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Schiff rocks. Its about time ZH showed him some love. Raise your hand if you are cool enough to get on Jon Stewart's show.

 

Oh yeah, that would be Schiff.

 

;)

Anonymous's picture

being on a canuck show is like being on beaker's gay show. classic fail....

Anonymous's picture

the truth hurts doesn't it?

Anonymous's picture

Jon Stewart is now Canadian? Did I miss something?

MakeItRain's picture
MakeItRain (not verified) Stuart Aug 4, 2009 11:33 AM

back to $4 gas and price conditions of 2007, except this time unemployment is a 3x multiplier and many don't want credit even if approved.

pick your poison, civil unrest or war with our creditors because someone is gonna get screwed.

lizzy36's picture

As near as i can tell forecasters don't forecast anymore than analysts, analyze or reporters, report. What they do is cheerleader.  They all are all engaged in the conspiracy of optimism. Which leads to delusions of prosperity.

Seriously if loose monetary policy and rapid asset inflation were the route to economic prosperity, Argentina would be the richest country in the world by now. 

Anonymous's picture

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!