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Peter Tchir's Solution To The Housing Problem

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Markets:

All we need to do is hire the people who appraised Bin Laden's hideout at a million dollars.  Seriously, its an odd shaped lot, with uneven fences, no phone lines or internet connection, crumbling walls, cheap plastic garden furniture, in a country with a per capita GDP of $2,700.  Unless the place comes with a cone of silence or room of invisibility, I don't see how that could be worth a million.  And if it is, either the dollar is more worthless than I thought or my home might actually be worth more than I paid for it.  I'm sure the mock-up the government built for training cost more than a million, but that's more a function of our governments great ability to overpay for anything they do.  I find it hard to believe that hideout was worth a million, and don't really understand why every news report likes to focus on that largely meaningless number.

In the meantime the market seems to be doing its best to shrug off any excuse to rally.  Osama's death sparked a rally in futures that tailed off and we never managed to get to the overnight highs once the market was open.  That was on the first day of the month no less - a day with an upward bias to begin with, making it all the more confusing why we couldn't rally.  The dollar has been weak and stocks have failed to march higher.  Portugal announced some version of some plan to some agreement of a bailout package and the stock market hasn't dutifully popped higher.  Is the weaker economic data finally taking its toll?  The realization that QE3 may not be coming?  I'm not sure, but given all the excuses stocks could have used to rally it's interesting that we are down a little on the week.  Buy the Dip has been too successful for too long to get very excited about this small retracement in the face of positive news, but it is time to be extra vigilant in my opinion as bad news may actually be bad for stocks again.

 

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Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:37 | 1238002 william shatner
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In real estate only three things matter: location, location, location.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:39 | 1238020 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

and let's not forget the availability and cost of credit...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:43 | 1238043 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

. . . . and any ambient radioactivity.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:42 | 1238846 chumbawamba
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And a lack of crazed commandos storming your perimeter.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 09:50 | 1242925 nkktwotwozero
nkktwotwozero's picture

I think it's primarily that.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:50 | 1238105 Free_french
Free_french's picture

Answer some posts under... Sorry for the inconvenience...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:52 | 1238117 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

In this particular case, "Location, Location, Location" could just as easily been coupled with "JDAM, JDAM, JDAM."

OBL must have cherry-picked a former Countrywide appraiser -- indeed, let's see the comps on this property.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1238164 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

It might only be worth $10,000 on the open market but it's worth $20 billion as collateral to the Fed...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:47 | 1238864 harlanaladd
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Sounds kinda like ZH there:

"One boy produced a jagged, soot-encrusted chunk of metal, perhaps part of an exhaust, from a drain. "This is silver!" declared 12-year-old Yasser."

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:50 | 1239607 macholatte
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I thought it looked familiar. I saw that house 3 weeks ago. It was a B of A foreclosure in east LA. Yea. That was it.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1238155 Singularity05
Singularity05's picture

and depreciation and cash flow

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:38 | 1238010 The Third Man
The Third Man's picture

It's been called a mansion, of all things! It's an effort to offend his followers...make them think that the guy was livin' large while they fought and died in the barren wastelands of Rockandddirtistan

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:46 | 1238035 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

well he was, wasn't he, and they were, weren't they?

He was related to the Saudi royal family wasn't he?

They should have airlifted an Aston and a couple of pissed up whores in before raiding the place...

and then took real photo's.

No style...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:45 | 1238062 The Third Man
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You obviously didn't see pictures of the place. More akin to a Detroit crack house than a frickin' mansion.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:50 | 1238101 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I saw the one with the improvised helipad.

Are you seriously trying to tell me a Detroit crack house isn't worth a million?

Damn...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1238159 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

The crack (& related whores) is worth more than the real estate.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:40 | 1238022 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and the security system sucks

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:43 | 1238027 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

But can you get a Dunkin Donuts drivethru lane installed on that thing

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:44 | 1238036 Misean
Misean's picture

This is a James Bondesque media script/template to frame the propaganda. You can't have Dr. Evil in anything less than a million dollar evil lair.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:53 | 1238095 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

reminds me of all those other non-fictional terorrists - M'balz es-hari, Haid D'Salaami and Hous Bin Pharteen

 http://www.guzer.com/videos/terrorist_names.php 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:46 | 1238042 Crummy
Crummy's picture

The Feng Shui on that property practically screamed politically motivated homicide.

 

 

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:15 | 1238274 JR
JR's picture

The yin yang begins…

Former Israeli Defense  Minister Lauds U.S. Assassinationa Policy | The LRC Blog

Posted by Michael S. Rozeff,on May 4, 2011 07:02 AM

Obama’s assassination of bin Laden sets a law-breaking precedent. Calls to assassinate Gaddafi quickly emerged after bin Laden’s killing was made known. Now Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli Defense Minister and current head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, says that the U.S. has adopted Israel’s already existing assassination policy.

Worse yet, he argues that Obama’s action justifies Israel’s assassinations: “Mofaz said in an interview with Israeli radio on Tuesday that Washington’s decision to kill bin Laden rather than try him in a court of law justified the former policy that Tel Aviv implemented against Palestinians that included killing Hamas and other senior Palestinian officials.” Hence, lawlessness begets specious justifications for more lawlessness. If officials of the Israeli and the U.S. governments can assassinate people, and if this is perceived or advertised as justifiable, then the officials of any nation can also instigate murders, justify them with these false rationales, and get away with murder.

One good thing about the Mofaz statement is that he sees clearly what Obama has done and says it like it is. He doesn’t sugarcoat it. It’s murder without rule of law and without trial, decided by government officials.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/87343.html

*Dr. Rozeff is a Professor Emeritus Finance and Managerial Economics (retired)...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:53 | 1238545 JR
JR's picture

Robert Katz (LewRockwell.com):

“When details of Abu Ghraib became public, the sympathetic Joe Sobran quipped, ‘There goes all the good will we built up through years of bombing Arab cities and starving Arab children.’“

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:44 | 1238045 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

The compound was only worth $10,000.  The cloaking device makes up the other $990,000.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1238067 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

yes but if you look at the view from the rear...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:45 | 1238054 Vashta Nerada
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either the dollar is more worthless than I thought or my home might actually be worth more than I paid for it. 

According to my county, my home is worth more than I paid for it six months ago.  I had to remind them that housing is going down, not up.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1238058 Whatta
Whatta's picture

Did it have a media room? Definitely not a McMansion w/o a media room or master bathroom large enough to berth the Queen Mary.

 

I hear NY RE agents are cat fighting over who will get the listing now that its owner is deceased.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:45 | 1238059 Carl Spackler
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Maybe Timmy G and Uncle Ben are going to be giving Peter Tchir a call.

Rumor has it, they think he is onto something!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1238060 indio007
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Cone of silence ? Room of Invisibility? Now i know you play Dungeons and Dragons :P

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1238063 Dick Gozinya
Dick Gozinya's picture

MOVE EVERYONE WHO LOST A HOUSE IN TUSCALOOSA AND THE SOUTHEAST TO LAS VEGAS AND STOCKTON AND GIVE THEM A PRACTICALLY NEW HOUSE (THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSIDERATION TO BE BULLDOZED)!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:02 | 1238173 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ENTHUSIASM!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:49 | 1238068 blindman
blindman's picture


made by haliburton, very costly. ??
.
Dr. Steve Pieczenik: Bin Laden, The Oswald Like Patsy Died 10 Years Ago! 4/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r36tfTsS7To&feature=autoplay&list=ULe97g-...
.
start with 1/7.
picked up this link somewhere an hour ago.
the psyop resurrection of osama bin laden.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:47 | 1238079 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

I hear that is considered The Hampton's in Pakistan.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:07 | 1238198 Harlequin001
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and 'the outside toilet" in the UK...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:50 | 1238081 Sheens Liver
Sheens Liver's picture

Maybe the walls were papered in US Fiat, worthless FRN's.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1238085 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

...and look at the interior? We're supposed to believe OBL lived in such million dollar squalor? There's absolutely no organization to any of it which if you lived there, there would be. No sheets on the bed, junk piled everywhere, trash all about the place....Even American Pickers would come up worthless. 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:52 | 1238099 Free_french
Free_french's picture

In my opinion Nope....

The three things that matter are;

the move in fix income market,

the move in fix income market

and... the move in fix income market.

 

It is in the most expensive areas that you always have the most beautiful bust...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:57 | 1238134 jimcg
jimcg's picture

I'm sure Bank America and/or Wells can suggest an appraiser.

J

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:11 | 1238230 Ura Bonehead
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Weeeeeeeell, the part that made it cost $1 MM to build was when, at the end of the developer meeting, the client rep in sun glasses and no ID ("Just call me Mr. Smith") said, "Oh! And we need 10 foot walls, barbed wire, a place to burn all our papers, and no connections to the outside world of infidels.  Plus, all your workers must be certified jihadists and we will be paying in cash."

There are a few places in South LA that cost $1MM.  :)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:12 | 1238258 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

sounds like the Fed...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:15 | 1238283 shushup
shushup's picture

We did have appraisers like that. That's ONE of the reasons for the housing bubble.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1238351 Mike Cowan
Mike Cowan's picture

Binny's former residence was a lot better than his current. The Allah fiction is over.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:24 | 1238379 chindit13
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Maybe I've spent too many years in the developing world, but $1 million looks about right, and with a per capita income of $2700, the place has room to grow.  I recently spent some time in Pakistan's neighbor, and the prices in south Mumbai and tony sections of Delhi make Osama's mansion look like a steal.  Some parts of Delhi have, eg, 8000 sf homes on an acre or so and go for $20-25 million.  Then there's Yangon, the commercial hub in a land with a $250 per capita take.  Recently a 20K sf parcel with a decrepit movie house on it sold for $66 million, and a palace like ObL's in some of Yangon's better neighborhoods would be minimum $5 million plus, probably much higher.  It would rent for about $3000/month, while bank interest---bank accounts are very recent---pays depositors 12%.  Doesn't add up?  There is a belief that every priced paid establishes a new inviolable floor.  Heck, rural farmland in this place is more expensive than the US, which may well be the cheapest RE in the world (though I don't know much of the smaller South American countries or eastern European ones like Romania).  The US is the anomaly.  Sometimes I want to charter out all those unused bulk carriers that make up the BDI and arb land across the world.  Makes as much sense as anything.

It is a very odd world.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:42 | 1238496 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

I don't believe that you find a fool that buys a return of 0.72% when he could earn factors of that. Then again, some fools are buying billions of T-Bills.

Two nice bubbles.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:29 | 1238773 alexwest
alexwest's picture

please..
there's huge diff.. places you're talking
are HUGE COMM/FINNACIAl HUBS ( China/India), so yes there're wild prices cause the corruption is rampant..

but common on its fucking Pakistan.. there's ongoing civil war and there's nothing nothing in Pakistan..

#2
remember that techie guy who twitted about Osama killing, he lived jsut couple blocks from here,
DOES HE LIVE IN 1 MLN MANSION TOO? techie guy ? please..

it was all hoax.. 100% sure Osama was injected in that comparment,, thats all.. probably drugged..
100% sure Seals never knew about it , they just got a hint, go there , search kill all...

alx

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:34 | 1238789 JR
JR's picture

It seems the U.S. already occupies Pakistan, putting a gun to its leaders’ heads on the terms: allow us in or “be bombed back to the Stone Age.” Already, Pakistan is overrun with U.S. bases, intelligence, mercenaries, US use of major ports, and awash with billions in U.S. dollars particularly in bribes to all its generals and politicians. Could this be what's helping drive up property values? Ask the bankers, it's their play. As you say, its a very odd world, particularly when it calls OBL's place a "palace." 

According to Eric Margolis, writing March 24, 2011 on Lew Rockwell regarding CIA agent Raymond Davis.

The Davis case will confirm the growing belief among most Pakistanis that their nation has been de facto occupied by the United States as part of its war in Afghanistan. What else could they conclude when American Rambos and spies run amok in Pakistan and US Predator drones pound its northwest frontier? Or as they watch Pakistan’s once proud soldiers, now turned sepoys of the new Raj, stand at attention to receive Pentagon orders.

 

Even the unloved former president, Pervez Musharraf, claims right after 9/11, Washington “put a gun to our head” and told him to either accept US semi-occupation of Pakistan or be bombed back to the Stone Age. This meant US use of Pakistan’s major ports, depots, key airfields, radar sites, intelligence service ISI, security police, and 120,000 troops. Senior military and intelligence officers deemed insufficiently pro-American or Islamist were purged, among them many of the army’s ablest officers.

 

A decade later, polls show most Pakistanis believe the US is continuing to take over Pakistan, and aims to get control of their nation’s dispersed nuclear arsenal.

 

At the same time, Pakistan is increasingly becoming a free-fire zone for US gunslingers and CIA hit teams. The Zardari government in Islamabad, well lubricated by secret US “black” payments and stipends, raises few objections…

 

This behavior further undermines the feeble Zardari regime, the house of cards on which the US-led Afghan War rests. Nor did it help this week in Washington when US Afghan commander, Gen. David Petraeus, asserted there were less than 100 al-Qaida in Afghanistan.

 

CIA chief Leon Panetta had previously told the US Congress there were no more than 50 al-Qaida types left in Afghanistan. So why, one wonders, are there 110,000 US troops and another 40,000 NATO troops there? Could it be some other reason?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/margolis/margolis233.html

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 20:24 | 1241309 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So why, one wonders, are there 110,000 US troops and another 40,000 NATO troops there? Could it be some other reason?

One word:  Poppies!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:28 | 1238406 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Seriously, its an odd shaped lot, with uneven fences, no phone lines or internet connection, crumbling walls, cheap plastic garden furniture, in a country with a per capita GDP of $2,700.

Nonetheless, I bet half the underemployed real estate agents in the U.S. are scrambling to figure out how they can get the listing. If anyone can trump up a piece of shit real estate into an investment opportunity of a lifetime, these people can. Hey, I bet the property taxes are really low.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:42 | 1238486 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

what the White House did not tell you :

Osama Bin Laden's hideout was sitting on top of huge Oil reserves and he had his own private Oil-well behind those crumbling walls, next to the poppies and herb-garden, and that cheap plastic garden furniture was just a decoy. The land alone is worth hundreds of millions, a bit like Texas a few years back before you were born.

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:03 | 1238639 JR
JR's picture

We’ll need Marc Rich now to work out a pipeline deal to get that sweet crude to the Indian Ocean. And a JPMorgan tanker. Or is Rich one Clinton man Obama forgot in his retread administration?

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 17:44 | 1240468 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

...and then one day O'Sam was shootin' at some food, and up through the ground came a bubblin' crude.  Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:16 | 1238702 alexwest
alexwest's picture

##ho appraised Bin Laden's hideout at a million dollars.

thank you ..but I was 1st... :)

no way it cost 1 mln..more likely around 50 gs
1 mln $$$ taken from sky to get attention stupido americanos..

same old same bullshit ..

alx

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:03 | 1238980 Occams Aftershave
Occams Aftershave's picture

well, it's because the buyer will also get a plaque which reads "O. bin Laden slept here."

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