Philadelphia Fed Massive Miss: Comes At 18.5 On Expectations of 36.9, Downward Q2 GDP Revisions Can Now Commence

Tyler Durden's picture

And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010. And here is why even the Philly Fed admits "indicators suggest slower growth" - "The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 43.4 in March to 18.5 this month (see Chart). The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, showed a  similar slowing: The index fell 22 points, following seven consecutive months of increase. The shipments index declined 6 points  and remained at a relatively high level....A majority of firms continue to cite price pressures, and a significant share of firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods again this month." Translation: Wall Street Q2 GDP revisions coming en masse: the podium is yours Jan Hatzius.

Alas, as companies are only starting to recall, inflation is sticky and takes far more than 15 minutes to fix:

Firms Report Higher Output Prices

Firms continue to report price increases for inputs as well as their own manufactured goods. The prices paid index declined 7 points this month but remains about 45 points higher than readings just seven months ago. Fifty?nine percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs this month, compared to 64 percent last month. On balance, firms also reported an increase in prices for their own manufactured goods: The prices received index increased 5 points and has steadily increased over the last eight months. Thirty percent of firms reported higher prices for their own goods this month; just 3 percent reported price reductions.

Looking at the index components, New Orders, Shipments and Inventories tumble

Full report

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I am Jobe's picture

Eat IPAD Bitchez

sbenard's picture

LOL! It gets stuck between my teeth! :)

Thanks for a good chuckle. I needed that!

NoBull1994's picture

awesome.  more QE.

Overflow-admin's picture

= Duke Nukem Forever release date = june 14th.

sbenard's picture

More dollar devastation from "Bubbles" Bernanke!

RobotTrader's picture

And COF is at 52-week highs today....


Never underestimate the consumer.

Hephasteus's picture

So you finally finish puking all over your monitor?

redpill's picture

Did your image privelages get revoked or can you not bring yourself to even do it today? Yahoo chart reflects it never hit the February levels but whatever.

Regardless, here's a tip: People being forced to carry a balance on their credit cards so they can buy food is not positive for economic fundamentals.

Careless Whisper's picture

word of the day: wtf? as in; TZOO wtf?

Imminent Crucible's picture

There's something very fishy in Capital One's report. Revenue and net interest income still well off YoY, but profit is way up on reduced charge-offs. Considering that COF does not charge off an account until it's at least 180 days delinquent, you have to ask yourself if this is the result of last fall's surge in "Whaddya know? We don't have to make our mortgage payment 'cause of this MERS thing. Let's go to the mall!"

John Law Lives's picture

Why does ZH give you posting privileges?

What value do they think you add here?

DutchTreat's picture

Its got QE3 written all over it.

A Man without Qualities's picture

QE3 won't help them I am afraid.  The plan to raise equity prices has fed though to commodity prices.  Manufacturing has been driving full steam ahead, concerned about rising input prices but hoping they can pass this on to the consumer.  Consumer has been saying, we are getting squeezed going to have to pull back, but the markets prefer to ignore this background noise.

Here we are.  The greatest failure of this form of stimulus is there was no transmission mechanism to the wider economy (neither jobs nor wages) and we were due to encounter a stagflationary quagmire sooner or later.  

I am sure JM Keynes said the key was about stimulating the economy through the income of the working man....

Dick Darlington's picture

But but but, Bloomberg CONsumer comfort (looooool!!!) creeps higher. You just can't make this shit up!

scratch_and_sniff's picture

ok so now $ rally, yeah???? WTF!!! HA HA how i laugh, now everyone that pumped the euro and sold the dollar have to buy it for genuine reasons and they shit themselves and sell, this is a joke.

bingaling's picture

Cover Ass Index will be in full force as the only green rockets will be in commodities .

The Profit Prophet's picture

And silly me thought the reason for the FED desperation world market pump yesterday was to cover for an AAPL turns out to be a Philly Fed collapse!

T.E.I.N. everyone! 

RobotTrader's picture

JPM still the strongest bank stock out there.  Still over $44.

redpill's picture

Your RobotTrader brain never figured the mighty JPM stock would be looking up at the silver spot price, did it.

gordengeko's picture

Fuck off, BAC is up JPM is down.  Noone believes your shit.

The Profit Prophet's picture

Please don't feed the's best just to junk the comments into oblivian....I hear it takes 50 junks.

T.E.I.N. everyone!

d00daa's picture

Do you own it?  If not, this is a great place to buy.

Seasmoke's picture

it must have snowed ........somewhere !

firstdivision's picture

The housing price index was another miss.  The beauty is the revision from the prior week.

RobotTrader's picture

YUM Brands up 5%, 3-year high for that stock.

3 years after the biggest investment banking implosion in history, and restaurant stocks are busting out to new highs???   Yep.

Rogerwilco's picture

Classic crack-up boom underway. The economy today reminds me of a Chinese acrobat troop we saw last year. They end their performance with a stage full of contortionists balancing dozens of spinning plates. Not a single plate fell...Luck? Skill?

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

still changing the subject to avoid looking at his stagnant, stuck in the mud portfoilio of widows and orphans stocks going nowhere slowly.

here's a tip for your living vicariously, green with hampton envy of the success of other investors: get a silver quote and imagine where you would be if you could connect dots.

Careless Whisper's picture

restaurant stocks are busting out to new highs???   Yep.

u may want to check ur CMG holdings. not having a good morning.

d00daa's picture

"The market isn't pricing in QE3.  The market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US Consumer."  -RobotTrader

A Nanny Moose's picture

That's gonna leave a mark.

holdbuysell's picture

And to think we haven't even seen what's coming with states and their fiscal budgets. Many states budgets need to be set for July 1, including CA.

That gasoline should begin falling on the fire very soon.

alien-IQ's picture

Big Miss = QE 3 certain = Market rallies/Dollar tanks.

Big Beat = Economy doing great = Market rallies/Dollar tanks.

On Target = Everything is stable = Market rallies/Dollar tanks.

...and the worms ate into his brain...

shushup's picture

Makes no scense but you are correct.

alfred b.'s picture


    Who else thinks the dyi & ag have a date @ 68 ??

thames222's picture

Me!  I think the date might be set at 70, though.  I'm holding until the cows come in, ag and au.