Philadelphia Fed Massive Miss: Comes At 18.5 On Expectations of 36.9, Downward Q2 GDP Revisions Can Now Commence

Tyler Durden's picture

And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010. And here is why even the Philly Fed admits "indicators suggest slower growth" - "The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 43.4 in March to 18.5 this month (see Chart). The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, showed a  similar slowing: The index fell 22 points, following seven consecutive months of increase. The shipments index declined 6 points  and remained at a relatively high level....A majority of firms continue to cite price pressures, and a significant share of firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods again this month." Translation: Wall Street Q2 GDP revisions coming en masse: the podium is yours Jan Hatzius.

Alas, as companies are only starting to recall, inflation is sticky and takes far more than 15 minutes to fix:

Firms Report Higher Output Prices

Firms continue to report price increases for inputs as well as their own manufactured goods. The prices paid index declined 7 points this month but remains about 45 points higher than readings just seven months ago. Fifty?nine percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs this month, compared to 64 percent last month. On balance, firms also reported an increase in prices for their own manufactured goods: The prices received index increased 5 points and has steadily increased over the last eight months. Thirty percent of firms reported higher prices for their own goods this month; just 3 percent reported price reductions.

Looking at the index components, New Orders, Shipments and Inventories tumble

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