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Philadelphia Fed Massive Miss: Comes At 18.5 On Expectations of 36.9, Downward Q2 GDP Revisions Can Now Commence
And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010. And here is why even the Philly Fed admits "indicators suggest slower growth" - "The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 43.4 in March to 18.5 this month (see Chart). The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, showed a similar slowing: The index fell 22 points, following seven consecutive months of increase. The shipments index declined 6 points and remained at a relatively high level....A majority of firms continue to cite price pressures, and a significant share of firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods again this month." Translation: Wall Street Q2 GDP revisions coming en masse: the podium is yours Jan Hatzius.
Alas, as companies are only starting to recall, inflation is sticky and takes far more than 15 minutes to fix:
Firms Report Higher Output Prices
Firms continue to report price increases for inputs as well as their own manufactured goods. The prices paid index declined 7 points this month but remains about 45 points higher than readings just seven months ago. Fifty?nine percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs this month, compared to 64 percent last month. On balance, firms also reported an increase in prices for their own manufactured goods: The prices received index increased 5 points and has steadily increased over the last eight months. Thirty percent of firms reported higher prices for their own goods this month; just 3 percent reported price reductions.
Looking at the index components, New Orders, Shipments and Inventories tumble
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SELL THE POP!
This just in about PMs.
http://www.benzinga.com/11/04/1014391/help-break-the-bankers-price-suppr...
looks like the morgue just dropped dead !
Soylent green shoots
Eat IPAD Bitchez
LOL! It gets stuck between my teeth! :)
Thanks for a good chuckle. I needed that!
awesome. more QE.
Quantitative Easing 4 ever.
= Duke Nukem Forever release date = june 14th.
More dollar devastation from "Bubbles" Bernanke!
And COF is at 52-week highs today....
LOL.....
Never underestimate the consumer.
So you finally finish puking all over your monitor?
Did your image privelages get revoked or can you not bring yourself to even do it today? Yahoo chart reflects it never hit the February levels but whatever.
Regardless, here's a tip: People being forced to carry a balance on their credit cards so they can buy food is not positive for economic fundamentals.
word of the day: wtf? as in; TZOO wtf?
There's something very fishy in Capital One's report. Revenue and net interest income still well off YoY, but profit is way up on reduced charge-offs. Considering that COF does not charge off an account until it's at least 180 days delinquent, you have to ask yourself if this is the result of last fall's surge in "Whaddya know? We don't have to make our mortgage payment 'cause of this MERS thing. Let's go to the mall!"
Why does ZH give you posting privileges?
What value do they think you add here?
Fthwffp!
Its got QE3 written all over it.
QE(n+1)
Do
QE();
Loop while 1=1
QE3 won't help them I am afraid. The plan to raise equity prices has fed though to commodity prices. Manufacturing has been driving full steam ahead, concerned about rising input prices but hoping they can pass this on to the consumer. Consumer has been saying, we are getting squeezed going to have to pull back, but the markets prefer to ignore this background noise.
Here we are. The greatest failure of this form of stimulus is there was no transmission mechanism to the wider economy (neither jobs nor wages) and we were due to encounter a stagflationary quagmire sooner or later.
I am sure JM Keynes said the key was about stimulating the economy through the income of the working man....
Bricked it.
But but but, Bloomberg CONsumer comfort (looooool!!!) creeps higher. You just can't make this shit up!
HI SMAILES!
ok so now $ rally, yeah???? WTF!!! HA HA how i laugh, now everyone that pumped the euro and sold the dollar have to buy it for genuine reasons and they shit themselves and sell, this is a joke.
Cover Ass Index will be in full force as the only green rockets will be in commodities .
And silly me thought the reason for the FED desperation world market pump yesterday was to cover for an AAPL miss......it turns out to be a Philly Fed collapse!
T.E.I.N. everyone!
JPM still the strongest bank stock out there. Still over $44.
Your RobotTrader brain never figured the mighty JPM stock would be looking up at the silver spot price, did it.
Fuck off, BAC is up JPM is down. Noone believes your shit.
Please don't feed the Trolls....it's best just to junk the comments into oblivian....I hear it takes 50 junks.
T.E.I.N. everyone!
ACK!!!
Do you own it? If not, this is a great place to buy.
it must have snowed ........somewhere !
LOL
nice avatar. been hittin the gym lately?
The housing price index was another miss. The beauty is the revision from the prior week.
YUM Brands up 5%, 3-year high for that stock.
3 years after the biggest investment banking implosion in history, and restaurant stocks are busting out to new highs??? Yep.
Classic crack-up boom underway. The economy today reminds me of a Chinese acrobat troop we saw last year. They end their performance with a stage full of contortionists balancing dozens of spinning plates. Not a single plate fell...Luck? Skill?
??
still changing the subject to avoid looking at his stagnant, stuck in the mud portfoilio of widows and orphans stocks going nowhere slowly.
here's a tip for your living vicariously, green with hampton envy of the success of other investors: get a silver quote and imagine where you would be if you could connect dots.
restaurant stocks are busting out to new highs??? Yep.
u may want to check ur CMG holdings. not having a good morning.
"The market isn't pricing in QE3. The market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US Consumer." -RobotTrader
That's gonna leave a mark.
And to think we haven't even seen what's coming with states and their fiscal budgets. Many states budgets need to be set for July 1, including CA.
That gasoline should begin falling on the fire very soon.
Big Miss = QE 3 certain = Market rallies/Dollar tanks.
Big Beat = Economy doing great = Market rallies/Dollar tanks.
On Target = Everything is stable = Market rallies/Dollar tanks.
...and the worms ate into his brain...
+1 Pink Floyd
Makes no scense but you are correct.
Who else thinks the dyi & ag have a date @ 68 ??
Me! I think the date might be set at 70, though. I'm holding until the cows come in, ag and au.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
Get ready, Jim Rogers has!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oAKeoILwlo&NR=1&feature=fvwp
Winning the Future, right?
Better hope so, because we're crapping ourselves in the present.
Pants >>>>>>>>>>>>> totally filled.
losing our future...see Ruppert's link below, his documentary "Collapse" spells it all out. no one listens, though, it's sad how we're going to end up.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
Michael Ruppert - We Have Until July at the Latest Before Economic Collapse Begins
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMDRCwRtiNM
what a fruit
Ruppert speak--any time that guy opens his mouth, i'm listening. He's a goon, and he knows how shit works better than anyone else around.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
Wow! Now that's really a massive miss!
Shhh! Don't tell Wall Street! They don't get it yet!
QE3 is coming Bitchez. Get ready!
In actual fact, it will be called a QE2 extension (with quantum to be detemined on a month-to-month basis, depending on economic conditions.) Keeping the ponzi afloat and the masses in check is all about confusion and word-play.
T.E.I.N. everyone!
usa= QE buffet table.....expect to pay more for wheelbarrows!
And silver goes POP.
No QEIII ... it's about as likely as no thunderstorms in Texas during spring.
We may be running out consolidations before the moonshot.
Honestly a 5% correction/consolidation would make me feel better here!
Here are Japanese supply line disruptions at work - lots of small tech companies in the Philly Fed territory ( Russell 2000 companies) and they are not getting the parts they need from Japan. Even if they are finding substitutes, the prices are higher and the quality generally lower.
Top Story in WSJ - World Spurs Manufacturing Growth. Says that manufacturing is up do to world participating in purchases. Yet the writers are so bad (or so pathetically edited) that the second paragraph contradicts the entire article by announcing that manufacturing growth is 4x consumer purchasing growth. Hmmm. Does that mean bloated inventories? A feel good story meant to confuse because it's BULLSHIT?
Thanks PhillyFed for doing your job and playing down the article just as planned.
miss it Noonan.. miss it.
I guess you don't want that scholarship, do you Danny
Hey, it looks good on you!
Five bucks says the Smailes kid picks his nose!
No shit. US companies are making their manufactured goods anywhere but in America and as a result are making bank. That's why Mr Market gives a rat's about Philly Fed cheese dogs.
LMFAO!!!
Does anyone have a clue? Does anyone know what the fuck is going on?
Those are rhetorical questions. The obvious answer is...not just NO...but FUCK NO!!!
Face it...you're all screwed one way or another.
Its doesn't matter how many bricks of gold you're sitting on or how much FRNs you have to wipe your ass.
You gameplayers remind me of a bunch of drunks camping having a good ole time, while a major forest fire is surrounding you and blazing your way. You'll be too punch happy to do a goddamn thing.
Yes...I do have visions on a regular basis.
Panic is about to be redefined.
...mr. jan hatzius steps to the podium: "These filly and Texas mare local FED opinion polls can show high random variance. However, as my criminal enterprise has already been an early harbinger of possible reverse vector technology, let me agree with Tyler: we are fuked!"
I agree. Bernokio should be clear by now that his QE efforts have done virtually nothing for the real economy (as opposed to the phantom financial economy). More QE will only result in the same outcomes - in particular, more speculation in commodities, pushing prices higher and continuing downward pressure on the real economy and thus the housing market as well. Given the holdings of the Fed, I have a hard time believing they can't see that more QE will undermine their own wealth. And they'd have to be delusional to believe more QE will result in a strengthened real economy.
It is time to clear out the debt, claw back all the Wall Street bonuses, raise the taxes on the richest, eliminate the Social Security tax cap, let housing prices decline to affordable levels, get the budget in line with revenue, and let the economic wounds heal.
However, I'm fairly certain what we will get is further economic destruction in order to feed the uber-rich their accustomed gargantuan portions of the pie.
with the supply lines of the world's #3 economy fatally disrupted we could be reaching end game. now that the BOJ is the new ATM of the Fed and a net seller of T-bills, QE3 can be strategically withdrawn. we already have defacto global FXQE. QE has now been exported world-wide along with inflation. USD has already been dumped. beware the ides of June. as Ruppert says, earnings will kill everything.
Hat tip to Shirley Bassey and Diamonds are Forever
Silver is forever,
It is what I need to please me,
Disintermediate, then feed me,
It can beat any fight,
I've no fear that it might desert me.
Silver is forever,
Hold it up and then caress it,
Touch it, feel it and assess it,
I can see every part
Neither short, fit nor start, can hurt me.
Paper is bad,
What good will paper do me?
Bullion never lies to me,
When paper's gone
It lusters on.
Silver is forever,
Like this ring around my finger,
Unlike paper, coins will linger;
Paper is for those who
Are not worth going to your grave for.
Silver is forever, forever, forever.
Silver is forever, forever, forever.
Forever and ever.
Another Reason For QE 3?
this is pasted from adrian ash's moring tilt: Shift to Physical Accelerates as Gold Rises in Dollars Only, Silver Adds 7.7% for the Week - Buy Gold Online with the Bullion Vault - GoldSeek.com
The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that the global banking sector faces a "wall of maturing debt" totaling $3.6 trillion in the next two years.
the formerly-solvent global banking sector needs $3.6 Tril.? we'd better start wink-winkin right now! the banksters will hafta run the fraud flea-flicker just to try to sell the bonds. however, the FED may just decide the US should guarantee bank debt, too, like Fanny & Freddy. oh wait! the states come first?
well, we have this invention, called the printing press, and...
Dammit tyler.
Your core inflation horse.may be starting to run a good race against my real gdp horse but the race aint over yet.
+++ LOL! then why has the GDP horse stopped?
My relatives in Philly are tripping out...the city is kind of in a bad place because the buildings and infrastructure is so old it's literally crumbling. the Philly Fed, sounds like a disgustingly good pesto cheesesteak sandwich.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com