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Philly Fed Comes At -0.7, Misses Expectations Of 0.5, Prior At -7.7, Stock Trading Computers Momentarily Stunned
The Philly Fed has just reconfirmed a contraction, following last month's -7.7 plunge, now coming at -0.7 on expectations of 0.5. Let the spin begin. In the meantime, here are the facts: The New Orders index at the lowest level since June 2009, Prices Paid lowest since August 2009, and from the report "For the second consecutive month, firms reported a decline in both new orders and shipments. Employment levels remained steady this month, but firms reported declines in average work hours. The survey’s broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism remains below levels earlier in the year."
Indicators Suggest Growth Stalled At End of Summer
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ?7.7 in August to ?0.7 in September. The index, which has been negative for two consecutive months, suggests that growth has stalled over the last two months (see Chart). Indexes for new orders and shipments continued to indicate weakness this month: The new orders index fell 1point, remaining negative for the third consecutive month, and the shipments index decreased 3 points, remaining negative for the second consecutive month. Firms reported declines in inventories and unfilled orders and shorter delivery times.
Among the index components:
- New Orders: -8.1 vs. Prev. -7.1
- Prices Paid: 9.8 vs. Prev. 11.8
- Employment: 1.8 vs. Prev. -2.7
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That caused the market to sell off for about 30 seconds.
Interesting: VIX still up 2%
Turning green as we speak. Buy every dip.
I think this is good enough for 10-15 points on the SP500.
The key to the UE numbers. Businesses cutting work hours (drastically) instead of laying off. October could be uglier than GS was predicting.
I bet you it gets revised lower next month.
meanwhile the obama business channel engages in a hilarious discussion trying to figure out the failure of american education.
the schools spend time teaching so-called "tolerance" and "diversity" and muslim and gay appreciation but cant find time for basics - math, reading, writing etc.
cnbc poll doesnt include unions as one of the choices for failure
You seriously believe that American schools spend significant time on "tolerance" and "diversity"? Ridiculous. Some schools might have a special "day" for that, but most don't. Even the ones that do spend every other day on math, reading, writing, etc.
Argue about why we don't get good results in math etc, but don't try to blame Obama. Crappy schools have been a problem for a LONG time. Remember when Dubya wanted to be "The Education President"? Do you recall why?
Our failure to educate upcoming generations has a LOT to do with why our nation is failing to compete. It IS an economic issue.
Underground History of American
Education by Gohn Taylor Gatto:
http://www.johntaylorgatto.com/chapters/index.htm
++
They're trying to make this a feudal society. Idiots like the one above are stuck on their racism.
We're not talking about a "special day", man... when is the last time you had a really good clue about what goes on inside the schools? When you were a kid, did you have to spend an entire goddamned MONTH doing Islam-themed crap to coincide with Ramadan, while "merry Christmas" instead of "happy holidays" would get you a lecture? It's Political Correctness time, all the time, in all but some of the most rural districts (and sometimes even there).
Entire courses devoted to brainwashing and nonsense. Subjects that should be solid, watered down with garbage... no, HS seniors don't need to learn about Newtonian physics and electromagnetism, let's have them make collages about fucking global warming instead, for the 6th straight year.
These are the kids showing up in freshman college courses who ask why you can't hook up both wires to the positive battery terminal. Who think the revolutionary war was fought in the 1960's against North Korea. Who think the sun goes around the earth, and don't know the sun is a star. Who think the sun gets dimmer at night and is the moon. Who don't understand that summer in the northern hemisphere is winter in the southern hemisphere. I'm not making this shit up, these are real examples.
You're right, it is a failure to compete. It's because of a near complete failure of the entire education system from the ground up. Go to any college campus, and go find the most ignorant, poorly educated kids on campus. You can honestly just walk around until you start hearing really stupid shit - the coffee shop lobby is a good place to start. Find 10 of them; at least 9 will be education majors. They are not going to be doing the children they teach any favors.
Epic!
or government...
Like everything else, education failure can be squarely be blamed on the Govt. What makes anyone think that education is something the Govt should be doing?
"If Congress can employ money indefinitely to the general welfare, and are
the sole and supreme judges of the general welfare, they may take the care of
religion into their own hands; they may appoint teachers in every State, county
and parish and pay them out of their public treasury; they may take into their own hands the education of children, establishing in like manner schools throughout the Union; they may assume the provision of the poor; they may undertake the regulation of all roads other than post-roads; in short, every thing, from the highest object of state legislation down to the most minute object of police, would be thrown under the power of Congress... Were the power of Congress to be established in the latitude contended for, it would subvert the very foundations, and transmute the very nature of the limited Government established by the people of America." - James Madison
BTW all this economic data. It's much much much worse than they are saying. -28 or get the fuck out.
They are really trying to keep this thing afloat this am.
bouncing off of 1120 S&P like a rubber ball. Probly break thru today tho.
lol - obama business channel skips obamas bs on exports -
he will extol virtues of exports but all the trade agmts sit on his desk. gotta check with the unions
say one thing - jobs, small business, growth blah, blah and then do the opposite - tax and spend and regulate
Good thing 33 Liberty leans on the buy everything for double the price button when the market hits 1120.
The double dip is dead. Back up the truck.
poof...there goes your last $0.50
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg858.htm
and here is timmay on china. he requests a 'sustained, trend appreciation' so he can rake in some increasingly worthless dollars on his fxcm micro account.
if china tries to force strong yuan by spending dollars from their own reserves it will kill the buck even faster. and that is what they want?
Why do we keep talking about Wall Street? This is a joke. Period.
A market normally serves the purpose of connecting companies and investors, and producing value added.
This thing is not a market. The only investors are the FED, the Treasury, GS and JPM. And the only purpose it serves is maintaining the figure above 10,000 to save 15 days before the final apocalypse.
I hear you man.
It appears we have another August on our hands as we had bad economic data early in the month, yet the market just hovered till the rug was pulled out. I would say we are set up for the same senario after opex.
Will Tuesday's temp. poll workers be used to juice employment stats?
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/are_poll_workers_being_used_to_inf...
'Roll up, roll up, welcome to Casino Street, we guarantee you will have a mind blowing white knuckle adventure, no comparison to ordinary roller coasters, here we take financial and mental torture to a new level and we promise to rip you off in as many ways as we can, guaranteed destitution by the end of the game'
Despite the spin this report is ugly. Prices received dip significantly while prices paid remain high, although slightly less. Shipments and new orders slide hard. All from the nation's manufacturing bread basket. Manufacturing is in contraction mode everywhere, that's why GS is predicting a bad ISM. I don't call this a "double dip" and neither is NBER. THe Depression never ended and this is just another leg down.
Don't expect the stock market to be a barometer of the economy anymore. The Fed will fix that. However the anxiety level has risen another big notch. Because confidence in even the Fed and its games is seriously fading. The real concern is could the next wave of QE set off inflation.
Gold is your only friend through the fog and tough times ahead. The only wealth protector and the only investment that covers all the bad contingencies. Stocks and bonds only cover the good contingencies. Gold is it.
Get lots of ammo to protect your gold too, will be a 24/7 job.
Get a dog, too. Make it two. Best alarm/early warning system money can buy. They're worth every penny of food you'll have to store for them, too. Every.single.penny. "I pity the foo'" who thinks my house is an easy target.
Train in martial arts, design secret escape route, buy abandoned missile silo as bunker.
recently sold one here for ~$180k... I want to say it had ~40,000 sq. ft. of livable space...
not sure about environmental/human hazards remaining after the missile(s) were removed...
CNBS says that "not as bad news" is "good news". W - T - F! Their stupidity has now reached below that of the general populace.
'Brown shoots' will CNBC be pumping them next?
This is like watching the Bystander Effect on a massive scale,
just because the market doesn't go down, computers and people think it must be all okay.
Until the room sets on fire!
The markets are to keep the average sheeple placated until implosion, I agree!
Add the ugly US current account report to the Philly Fed and you got an ugly morning.
Biflation, folks. The data keeps rolling in. Gold is the only answer. And it keeps confirming that daily.
These Fed surveys are not as important as they are blown up to be here. Yes, it's another negative number but they're surveys. Don't put too much emphasis on these. I mention this every month.
Nobody expects the philly fed!