Philly Fed Misses Expectations, Comes At 19.3, Admits Broad Price Increases

Tyler Durden's picture

A month after the Philly Fed surged and trounced expectations, printing at 24.3 in December, only to be subsequently revised lower to 20.8, the Philly Fed Business Outlook survey took another dip down, missing expectations of 20.8 and coming at 19.3. And as usual the real story is behind the headline, where one number continues to scream, namely the Prices Paid data, which rose from 47.9 to 54.3, the highest Priced Paid since July of 2008. Look for margin pressure to force companies to finally follow in Tiffany's example and start passing through costs to consumers broadly any minute.

From the report:

Higher Prices Are Reported

Price increases for inputs as well as firms' own manufactured goods are more widespread this month. Fifty-four percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs, compared with 52 percent in the previous month. The prices paid index, which increased 6 points in January, has increased 42 points over the past four months. On balance, firms also reported a rise in prices for manufactured goods: More firms reported increases in prices (26 percent) than reported decreases (9 percent), and the prices received index increased 8 points, its second consecutive positive reading.

Pretty much explains why the Fed will now be forced to do everything in its power to crush commodity costs.

Full report.

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Sudden Debt's picture

Nobody is right EVERY TIME!

sometimes people make mistakes and can be wrong about something...

YES! Even the FED can make a mistake to (open hand on hart)

Xibalba's picture

Whenever LVMH raises prices, they sell more items. 

Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflation rules.

Prices paid: UP

Existing home prices: DOWN

Oh and a few 100K or so new jobless

Lotsa Luck

Sudden Debt's picture

Yes, but it's not the worst month in history SO THAT'S STILL A BUY SIGNAL!


as Cramer would say...


BOUYAH BITCHEZ!! bouyah...

duo's picture

Check out option pain on SLV.  A close below $27 helps a lot of people.

papaswamp's picture

You are confusing GLD and SLV with physical....massive difference. GLD and SLV are paper and worthless in the eyes of those purchasing silver and gold for insurance/hedge purposes. That said, I doubt gold will be at $1600 anytime this year barring a black swan landing. Low to mid 1400's maybe. Silver I do expect to cross over $30 and stay in the low to mid 30's.


Tortfeasor's picture

Cut the value of your FRNs in half.

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

It's darkest before it goes pitch black.....


Edit in: Oops.  That was suppose to go to Turd and his "darkest before dawn" blog entry...

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Stopped out at 55 ... 10%-  should have taken the 20%.


But I should make that back quick with TZA -


d00daa's picture

LMFAO, of course.  Why did I even bother asking?


Tell me, master trader, are we rolling over or not?  Have you looked at any monthly index charts recently?  What are they telling you?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I'm look at all the stocks not holding recent high's ...

Most of the high flyers over the last 3-4 months have all pulled back breaking 50 days ...

The markets been rolling for months, its due.

Silver Wheaton down another 5% ..... First Majestic Silver down 15% today Lol'

You want to see blood in the streets , many, many miners down 25-35 % in 4 weeks .... Many buying the dip over the last 4 weeks ........ Uggg , A total wipeout last 2-3 days.

papaswamp's picture

Not going to happen...too much Asian and Indian demand. As pay and economy continues to rise so will demand...though I'll be impressed if Gold makes it past $1450 this year.

trav7777's picture

not sure I'm feelin this forecast, simply because of the production figures that have been coming out.  If gold is exceeding its previous 2001 production peak, then the extra supply will be a significant headwind against the price until production begins to materially decline again

tmosley's picture

Sort of like how urinating in the ocean causes coastal flooding.

Gold isn't used up.  You can't analyze its price in the same way you do other commodities.

Village Idiot's picture

Higher prices mean "quality"!!



Mrs. Village Idiot

Sudden Debt's picture

In the ESCORT serice THAT is TRUE!


I rather fuck on clean sheets then on dirty sheets!

Not that I'm a snob or Juppy.

It's just the way my parents raised me. 

terranstyler's picture

This means inflation and higher PMs!

Wait, ehm, obviously just for people who don't have a degree in economy.

TruthInSunshine's picture

The producers and manufacturers are full of shit. None other than Ben Bernanke said that inflation is too low.

Quintus's picture

Exactly.  What would those dickheads out there in the real economy know about such things?  They probably don't even have degrees from prestigious educational institutions.  They should just shut up and leave things to the Bernank.

ExploitTheMarket's picture

Can you feel the standard of living declining?   Stagflation, Biflation, whatever you want to call it, its here, and growing....

sushi's picture

And all those "green shoots" were derived from putting 4 oz of product in a package sized for 24 oz. Same price, different quantity.

Now you are going to be getting 4 oz at the 32 oz price. But you get a free serving of "brown shoots" to go with.

Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

PMs getting hit hard. Is this the short squeeze everybody has been talking about?

Chicago bear's picture

I brought up the question of higher gold and diamond prices to a member of the Mahendra brothers diamond mining family in India. He said diamond prices have not escalated substantially, and that the Tiffany increases are Tiffany's game to get more profit. The motive here may be to grab profit at the start of the year based on uncertain futures rather than certain commodity cost inputs.

Question though, any diamonds ETF out there to spread out commodity risk? I'm saturated in silver and PHYS. 

serotonindumptruck's picture

Diamonds are very abundant in nature. With few exceptions, they are not rare. The diamond trade is the epitome of a manipulated market.

Sean7k's picture

I heard a story from a jeweler once. He said when Black Opals were first discovered, every woman wanted one. They were beginning to threaten the diamond trade in wedding rings and pendants. 

The diamond consortium quickly began circulating a rumor that women that received black opals as wedding rings had a much greater chance of divorce and that the stone was "cursed". This of course, killed the burgeoning trade in Opals and diamonds remained the preferred stone.

To this day, I think the diamond is the most overhyped stone on the planet. Black Opals , especially the harlequins, are the most beautiful stone I have ever seen.

serotonindumptruck's picture

I've caused a few women to become quite angry with me after they attempted to impress me with their new (and very expensive) diamond engagement rings. I recall one vivid instance where her boyfriend/fiancee' wanted to kick my ass for making his soon-to-be bride sad and unhappy. The marketing campaign behind the diamond empire has been wildly successful at convincing the masses that these compressed deposits of anthracite are in fact quite valuable.

MachoMan's picture

Dude.  You're buying for a woman.  It has nothing to do with the rationality of the purchase decision...  only the whims of the woman...  cost of doing business.  In a perfect world, we would sit them down and tell them that they're irrational and their feelings are irrelevant to their purchasing decisions...  but that will get your detached penis tossed out of a moving car in the middle of the night...

1984's picture

True dat.  The same creatures who would make you throw money away just to see if you would.

MachoMan's picture

I always laughed at guys who talked about their present significant others going out on their first date together and ordered the most expensive thing on the menu to judge reaction.  I married the first one that let me take her to mcdonalds.

sushi's picture

the Fed will now be forced to do everything in its power to crush commodity costs.

Do you mean The Chairman will now be bending over for a line of Saudi princes? Will this be televised?

SheepDog-One's picture

Part of the commodities problem is the flood of printed up money from Bernanke, throw in actual shortages due to poor crop yields, and theres not much at all you can do to manipulate the prices! Actual supply/demand popping up here, 'crush commodity costs' HOW... it cant be done!

sushi's picture



It cannot be done and The Bernank has 15 minutes to do it.

buzzsaw99's picture

Someone is selling everything indscriminately. Gold, bonds, stocks. Someone is raising cash. If anyone has a theory I'd like to hear it. My guess, margin call.

Sophist Economicus's picture

RUMORS in some circles has it that there was a Pumping up of prices earlier so that some of these large funds that were winding down could exit positions without creating big down drafts.   Sounds like classic game of distribution.   Also heard some hedgies in CT are having some redemption requests and winding down winners in PM and commodities to raise cash and watch....

SheepDog-One's picture

Of course it was pretty obvious that over the last 6 months the insiders were selling into the FED pumping. Now what?

Sophist Economicus's picture

To be clear, the guys that were selling were the ones pumping in these situations.   But wouldn't past anything past the FED either.   Will be fun to see when and at what price those closing funds exited thier positions...

Caviar Emptor's picture

Digging through details of Philly Fed shows prices paid rising faster than prices received as predicted under biflation theory since companies can't pass on rising costs to constrained consumers with stagnant incomes and high job losses. This squezzes profit margins hard.

However there's a trend that at least part of the cost is getting passed on, which means there is indeed real inflation mixed into the fundamentally deflationary economics of high unemployment, ongoing downsizing of jobs with high weekly new jobless claims over the last 3+ years, declining real incomes and declining real estate prices. 

Biflation theory just serves to describe the facts : The US economy is downsizing and is in a post mega-bubble state. Costs are not supported by incomes and individual net worth. However the response by the Fed since the crisis and over the last 40 years has been reckless money printing, and this is combination with growing and expanding developing world economies means there are too many dollars in too many hands chasing too few raw materials. Hence deflation exists along side inflation, killing profit margins and consumers simultaneously as cost of living rises while net worth and incomes decline.