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Philly Fed Plunges To -7.7 on Expectations Of 7.0, Previous 5.1
Philly Fed comes in at -7.7, trouncing expectations of 7.0, and is the lowest number since August 2009, and first contraction since July 2009. Was the number even in the range of bearish expectations? Where is Steve Liesman - the survey respondents need some perking up: "the region’s manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism has waned notably in recent months." Those who look at the chart and think they are seeing the ECRI Leading Indicators are forgiven.
Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in August, after two months of slowing activity. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month. Firms also reported declines in employment and work hours. The survey’s broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism has waned notably in recent months.
Indicators Suggest Weakness
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to ?7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009 (see Chart). Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ?7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ?4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.
The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ?17.1 in August.
Firms Report Lower Prices for Products
On balance, firms reported declines in prices for their own manufactured goods: More firms reported decreases in prices (19 percent) than reported increases (6 percent). The largest percentage, 70 percent, reported no change in prices for their manufactured goods. Firms reported somewhat less cost pressures over the past three months. The prices paid index decreased 1 point this month, to 11.8.
Manufacturers Expect Continued Growth
The future general activity index remained positive for the 20th consecutive month but weakened slightly (see Chart). The future new orders index increased to 25.7 and shipments remained unchanged. Information about future inventories suggests that drawdowns are expected in the next six months. The percentage of firms expecting employment to decrease over the next six months (22 percent) slightly exceeded the percentage expecting increases (21 percent). The future employment index decreased 14 points, moving the index into negative territory.
In special questions this month, firms were asked about exporting activity and any changes to production outsourcing or “insourcing,” the return of operations from abroad (see Special Questions). About 30 percent of the firms indicated that the share of sales attributed to exports increased over the past year, a trend consistent with the previous two years. Among firms that reported an increase in export share, the mean response indicates that 13.6 percent of sales growth is attributable to exports. Since the start of 2010, roughly 10 percent of firms have moved some activities abroad; only 5 percent have returned activities to the U.S.
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imagine that
Gett'n kinda flash like today.
One wonders if the number is consistent with welcoming the recovery?
Further one also wonders if Geithners panties are now in a bunch?
Geithner got a sneak peak of the numbers before he shit, showered and shaved this morning. So he decided to go commando to save precious time during his repeated panic dashes to the executive men's room.
You know................the runs.
CD, that last thing i EVER want to think about is Geithner going commando.
Personally, i choose to believe he wears a GS branded thong.
OMG
At times, denial is the ONLY thing that can save us from projectile vomiting. On the other hand, wouldn't severely bunched panties qualify as a de facto thong?
Use your imagination. Or on second thought, maybe not.
HA.. I reckon the whole lot of them are sporting depends today...
That GS thong that Timmy is wearing has a remote control stun gun like device sewn into the nut sack. Benron and Lloyd have the remotes to activate it.
Even a dog deserves.........on second thought, can I turn up the voltage?
On Turbo boys choice of undergarments:
You realize, of course, that that comment has lead me to double up my thorizine drip.
I can't get that image out of my head.
Make it stoooooooppppp!!!!!
The S&M people tell me that to really appreciate the heady fragrance of the Thorazine drip, one must first wallow in the brutish stench of Turbo's makeshift thong.
Courage my friend, courage. :>)
A GS branded naugahyde thong.
Rope burn!
Ah but I had all but forgotten about Naugahyde, that wonderous "natural pleather" that ushered in the extremely descriptive phrase "genuine imitation", a term which works so perfectfully in today's economic insanity.
I wonder if there are any places left on earth where you can still (legally) hunt the wild and elegant Nauga? Thanks for the memories.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naugahyde
I'm thinking he layered up...
The VPOTUS is standing in the wings tell us how bad it would have been w/out POMO
Premarket chatter of +8.4. What a setup. Will be interesting to see if there is a POMO bounce soon.
IF there is a POMO bounce? Pleez.....
POMO rocket launch is more likely ....
PPT is hiring, please apply ASAP, part time job, we need for today around 3.15 to 4 PM.
Minum wage, but than again you have to do nothing, we just need to fix some enemployment numbers.
Ben will request a move for the use of absolute values in all economic publications - saves on red ink -
Sorry for my ignorance, but what kind of number is this?
An extremely shitty one.
[source]
Very unbelievably stupedously bad for the Summer of Hope crowd.
It's yet another number that confirms that when Obama said yesterday that the economy is recovering, he was lying......AGAIN.
Now now, let's not be dramatic.
He was simply doing what all chief executives are supposed to do. He was cheer leading the masses to stay in their third class broom closets while he safely led all of first class to the life boats.
See, that doesn't sound nearly as harsh.
Look, with a miss like this of such colossal proportions, you would expect the markets to be down at least 2 - 3% but no, its barely dented 1%. Obviously, they are setting up for next month's Philly CheeseSteak number which will probably come in around -5, which in and on itself is another awful number BUT would look good compared to this month's etrocious number and give Bammy and the CNBC cheerleaders something to gloat about. That day the markets will probably recoup all of today's losses and more.
[deleted double post]
One that has the quality of GM's Fecal IPO
Chinese Investors Protest and Demand their Money Back from the Government As New Chinese Cities Remain Empty
Odds are he is in make up...lipstick on pig...GM PO (I refuse to use IPO).
Wow. I never saw that train coming.
<s/off>
BTW today has the smell of a budding flash crash.
No Shit? I would have never thunk it.
Yee-Ha!
Ride em cowboy! Time for the bears to raid the treasury
Raid the treasury? It will be full of IOUs just like the Llyod's breifcase in "Dumb and Dumber".
Will the circuit breakers be "Tripped" today ?
and tomorrow !!
Yes !
Further confirmation of Double Whammy Economics in the Philly Fed report as prices received plunge while prices paid remain near unchanged. With that reality, is it a wonder that employment gets the kick in the butt??
Gold
wonder if johnny bravo has renamed his dog "rosie" so that he can kick the poor mut whenever the "always" wrong rosie is proven correct ... again.
Where are all the bulltards this morning? They always disappear when the market goes red, only to appear crowing and preening when the screens splash green. Bandwagon whores.
exactly. seems bulltards are fair weather pundits.
naaah, they're too busy buying the dips and chinese solars
PMSL
out buying the dip maybe ?!
CD: You mean this?
by Tripps
on Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:37
#526549
i was on this board last nite and mocked ZH for giving the 100th crash call this year
only fitting CNBC has on a lucky has been shorter calling for the market to go lower on the biggest upday/breakout in many weeks
once again....WAKE UP permabears. you guys are seriously deranged of the mind to continually bet against progress, success, and the american/global dream of capitalism
this is your WAKE UP call
4 mergers/buyouts in 2 days
peace out. tripps
Or this?
by Tripps
on Tue, 08/17/2010 - 14:02
#526631
the more they print, the more commodities are worth...let alone real bull markets out there for commods like potash for example
you guys keep on blowing it by being perma bears whether KD, ZH, etc
Or this?
by Tripps
on Tue, 08/17/2010 - 14:04
#526635
btw, the irish bonds sold WELL today..thus nullifying what the bears fear including bass
again, flys in the face of your case. and i'm gonna call out this BS all the time i see it
Or even this?
by Leo Kolivakis
on Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:34
#526482
Agreed, his comment on stocks was dumb but the entire interview was excellent. I can show you where top hedge fund managers are putting their money. Guys like Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin aren't stupid -- they're picking their sweet spots very carefully. So are other top hedge fund managers who are LONG stocks and overweight certain sectors.
Well.....Yes actually. In fact I think you caught the essence of their artistic expression wonderfully. I love how it shimmers in the morning sunrise, one that Tripps and Leo seem to be missing this lovely AM.
I do hope they come by for brunch so I can give them a tongue lashing for pissing on.....er...sorry, my therapist would call that a Freudian slip, for missing their own debut. How rude of them.
Cheerio. :>)
Leo's probably busy polishing his Chinese solar stock boner.
by Leo Kolivakis
on Tue, 08/17/2010 - 10:51
#526086
Some stocks were way oversold prior to POMO...check out this solar boner:
Back to 8.67
ah, turd. a trip down memory lane...
my friends and i must have been decades ahead of the times as we used the term "solar boner" for certain outdoor daytime activities.
maybe i'll schedule a picnic today in some romantic, isolated area and reminisce.
sometimes we bastardized the term into Sunny Boner in honor of Cher's now late hubby.
I must admit I've abused my Sunny Boner on occasion.
Whoops, was that my out loud voice?
lol. catch me AFTER sundown this evening cd.
Naah, back to 1085 for another week, or higher. Who cares, already halfway through a fifth of vodka...
You guys are dreamin.
Remember, its POMO day. The market will stabilize and the S&P will be back near even by about 1:30.
you might be right. i bought the dip? or is it plunge?
Totally agreed. At the worst dow will be in 60 points today, but may end up flat.
Obammmaaaa to the rescueeeeeee
Green, or Bust - this time it's a question.
Give me more POMO Scotty, MORE I TELL YA-MORE!!
I canna Cap'n. Her wings a gonna go. Her bolts are gonna blow! She canna take no more!
Wow, that explains what happened when I went to take a morning-after-hangover-dump. Looks like me and the SPX flushed at the same time.
And look at all those green 1min candles since POMO started.
Liesman just turned on the gas to high. Now, if only his head would fit in the oven.
Ya'll gonna make Ben lose his mind
Up in heerrrre
Up in heerrre
Ya'll gonna make Ben go all out
Up in heerrre
Up in heerrre
Ya'll gonna make Ben act a fool
Up in heerrre
UP in heeerrrreeeee
LOLOL enjoyed that!
+1075.50
stating the obvious it's as if the tards know the (bad) number(s), pull their bids at the last nanosecond and then jump in when a tecnical pattern is fulfilled.
"and first contraction since July 2009"
As the contractions get closer and closer together, wonder what's going to pop out the other end?
Mud baby.
It'll pop, and fly straight into the fan.
I don't know if anyone noticed that the DOW one month chart looks just like the old Texas Cyclone at six flags.
Come on people! You know good and well the ultimate fall cannot be predicted. It will come as a thief in the night!
I keep praying we will muddle through this mess but I am afraid the American people have become too ugly in thought, word and deed.
Just read ZH for a while if you don't believe me.
WTF is wrong with the Philly Fed for releasing numbers like this? Why are they not getting with the program??
Just to give you all an idea of how useless their efforts of trying to get cash into the system is at this point I want to highlight a recent sight from earlier this month and how it relates to those still employed and how millions in cash are likely being spent across this nation simply to maintain a level of normalcy without creating anything productive economically that would equate to growth.
Early in the morning I was at a Long Island Rail Road train station in middle class land and saw what I counted as 20 plus rail workers every day for two weeks. And here was the setup.
On each side of the tracks their was one individual with a large concrete saw pushing and cutting along the top of the platform in a straight line the entire length of the platform. One individual was standing opposite him helping stabilize. Behind these men were 2 additional men spraying water on the cuts to minimize the dust. Then there was a group of 3-4 foreman/supervisors/shop stewards chatting it up standing in a never moving circle telling jokes, talking about the Yanks, the President etc.
Then there was 1 man dressed in full reflecting gear, hard hat, bullhorn, walkie, goggles who's sole job was to stare down the rails at the direction of incoming train traffic and "alert" the workers (Who were always on the platform) that the train was coming even though the train from 2 miles out begins blowing his warning horn considerably louder than the bullhorn along with the crossing signal barriers which have loud bells as well.
On the complete oppositte side of the track on the other eastbound platform was the exact same set up of workers cutting concrete and an additional warning worker staring down the eastbound rails ready to blow his horn . These men spent two weeks here, repaired some of the shrubbery. So what is it these men were doing?
They were installing brand new yellow shiny rubber slip traction pads along the entire platform. This is for those stepping on and off the train. Even more incredible is that the pads previously on the platform were in excellent shape. They were a little dirty yes but there was minimal to no wear on the pads.I imagine They are doing this up and down every LIRR line. The costs for this must be astronomical.
So tell me how money being expended for these kinds of projects to appease unions and maintain some sort of normalcy in the labor markets is productive to the economy.
It is intended to produce inflation by injecting extra money directly into the system, in a vain attempt to drag our sorry assets out of the current deflationary death spiral.
They are struggling to find any way to inject money into the system that does not upset anyone or violate any quid pro quo they have going on. This is the best they could come up with. Hope you enjoyed the show.
We are fucking doomed. To the last child. To the last dog. But we'll leave behind really spiffy terminals after we're gone.
Earth is shaking off that nasty human virus once and for all. I find it very interesting that when nature wants to cull an animal herd, it often introduces a virus that nearly always produces symptoms that appear to mimic madness. Sort of what we seem to be battling right about now.
Interesting.
double post deleted
Every media mouth, etc talking trash to keep perceptions up will eventually have to eat their words as the economy drags the entire financial house of cards into the toilet.
Steve Liesman is such a tool. It doesnt suprise me that he went on teh record and totally missed.
THE NEXT LEG DOWN ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Rock POMO meet Irresistable Force Philly Fed and Jobless Claims. Now go to your corners and I'm expecting a clean fight.
welcome to the recovery!!!