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Philly Fed's Plosser: If Deflation Accelerates May Need More QE

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In a speech which on the surface is meant to convey the skepticism of the Charles Plosser over QE2, the Philadelphia Fed president admits that much more QE may ultimately be needed. "If the economy grows more quickly than I currently anticipate, the purchase program will need to be reconsidered and perhaps curtailed before the full $600 billion in purchases is completed. On the other hand, if serious risks of deflation or deflationary expectations emerge, then we would need to consider whether expanded asset purchases should be used to address these risks." And much more deflation will eventually emerge especially for large scale purchases which rely on credit procurement (coupled with increasing inflation in commodities which are first degree liquidity derivatives): after all, the collapse in the shadow banking system, and the M3, are all the matter, and the Fed has no control over these (now that European greater fool securitized investors are extinct). It is precisely the Fed's QE3 response that should start being factored in. As everything else is noise, we will immediately present the latest meltdown in the shadow economy when the quarterly update is posted at noon on December 9.

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
32nd Annual Economic Seminar, Sponsored by the Simon
Graduate School of Business, Rochester Business Alliance, and JPMorgan
Chase & Co., Rochester, NY, December 2, 2010

Introduction

Thank you for that warm welcome. I am delighted to be back in
Rochester. It is always wonderful to see old friends and familiar faces.
Having participated in this event for 32 years, and having lived here
for nearly as long, Rochester will always feel like home to me. I have
enjoyed the richness of the discussions we have had over the years,
through both good and bad forecasts, and I am honored that the Simon
School, the Rochester Business Alliance, and JPMorgan Chase continue to
welcome me back.

Over the last few years, both here and elsewhere, I have noted that
these are interesting and challenging times for the economy and for
policymakers. I suspect that we all would welcome a little more boredom
and a little less challenge. Nevertheless, challenges remain and today I
will discuss current monetary policy, including the Fed’s decision to
begin a new round of large-scale asset purchases. Because appropriate
monetary policy is forward looking and conditional on the outlook for
the economy, I will start by highlighting my views on our nation’s
economic recovery and my outlook for growth and inflation. Before
continuing, I should note that my views are my own and not necessarily
those of the Federal Reserve Board or my colleagues on the Federal Open
Market Committee.

The Economic Outlook

When we met a year ago, I told you that I believed the economy was in
a recovery and that I had become more confident that it would be a
sustainable one. We now know, thanks to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, External Link
that the recession ended in June 2009. However, the pace of the
recovery since then has been uneven and slower than anyone would like.
Yet, this slow pace was not unexpected, given the severity of the
recession and the financial nature of the shocks that precipitated it.
Remember the economy lost more than 8 million jobs — a 6 percent decline
in employment — and households lost more than $12 trillion in net
worth. So, some necessary rebalancing is taking place.

Consumers and businesses are in the process of deleveraging and
rebuilding their savings. Activity in the housing industry will continue
to languish until housing inventories are reduced. State and local
governments are cutting spending to make up for lower tax revenues. And
the unemployment rate remains high at 9.6 percent, as displaced workers
vie for available open positions. Uncertainties surrounding fiscal
policies and the costs they will impose on businesses have also weighed
down the recovery.

So, while we are in our sixth quarter of economic recovery, it
doesn’t feel like one for many people. Admittedly, growth for 2010 will
be somewhat lower than the 3 percent annual rate that I projected a year
ago. We started out the year with a fairly nice rebound. Real GDP grew
at a 3¾ percent pace in the first quarter as firms began to restock the
inventories they had drastically cut during the recession. House sales
were boosted temporarily by the homebuyers’ tax credits, which pulled
sales forward. However, when the credits ended, sales dropped off
sharply. So going into late spring and early summer, the pace of the
recovery slowed to less than 2 percent, due in part to the expected
decline in housing sales. The mood and tone of the recovery were further
shaken by the sovereign debt problems in Europe, which led some to
worry that the economy could dip back into recession. While this loss of
momentum did cause me to revise down my forecast for the year, I was
less concerned about a double dip. History has taught us that recoveries
are rarely a smooth upward trajectory. Yet, the most recent data
suggest that the economy is emerging from the summer doldrums. Growth in
the third quarter accelerated to 2½ percent and readings on consumer
spending and manufacturing activity have also picked up.

As we end 2010, I now project that GDP growth will be around 2½
percent for this year and will pick up to 3 to 3½ percent annually over
the next two years. A key to this growth will be increased private
demand, which is essential for a sustainable recovery. While neither
business spending nor consumer spending is likely to take off rapidly, I
do expect continued improvement in economic conditions that will
support moderate growth going forward. As with all forecasts, this
projection carries some risks. But for now, I expect moderate growth
overall, with strength in some sectors offsetting weakness in others.

Housing is one sector that I expect to remain weak. We entered the
recession highly overinvested in residential real estate, and the sector
is likely to remain depressed for a while longer. Commercial real
estate markets are also weak. Nonresidential construction spending
declined this year, and I do not see much growth until after the economy
is well into a healthy expansion.

In contrast, business spending on plant and equipment is
strengthening. While some smaller firms report difficulties in getting
access to credit, banks have begun to ease credit terms and loan rates
are at historic lows. Larger firms have been able to finance investment
out of retained earnings or to issue new debt on very favorable terms.
Some of these investments have been used to replace aging equipment;
some have gone toward productivity improvements, which are good for the
economy in the long run.

The Philadelphia Fed’s monthly Business Outlook Survey of regional manufacturers showed significant improvement in general activity, orders, and shipments in November,
following some weakness during the summer months. The survey’s measures
of expected future activity indicate that businesses are becoming more
optimistic as well. So I expect business to continue to make these fixed
investments at a healthy pace over the coming year.

Consumer spending, though, makes up about 70 percent of economic
activity in the U.S., so the speed of the overall recovery will depend
on how the household sector fares. Even during recessions, it is rare to
see sustained declines in consumer spending. Yet in 2008, households
cut their spending by over 1¾ percent (measured fourth quarter over
fourth quarter). This was the first yearly decline since 1980, and the
largest since World War II. The fall in house prices and the decline in
equity portfolios hit households hard, destroying the net worth that had
supported spending. Additionally, job losses have meant lower incomes.
Concerns about future job losses caused consumers to retrench. However,
households are now in the process of shoring up their balance sheets. As
debt levels fall, and savings are rebuilt, consumers will be in a
better position to spend. But with unemployment remaining stubbornly
elevated, aggregate wealth will recover only slowly. Those who have lost
their homes or spent down their savings while unemployed will recoup
their losses only over time. This year, consumer spending is up at a 3
percent pace. I don’t expect a stronger rebound without more improvement
in the labor markets.

So far, the private sector has added over a million jobs this year,
reflecting some of the reallocation of displaced workers into new
positions. Unfortunately, the pace of employment growth hasn’t been
strong enough to make much of a dent in the unemployment rate. When we
met last year, the unemployment rate was 10 percent. Over the course of a
year, it has fallen less than half a percent to 9.6 percent, as noted
earlier. Like most forecasters, I believe that the moderate pace of the
recovery in output growth suggests that we will continue to see
improvement in labor markets, but that improvement will be a gradual
one. I expect the unemployment rate will fall to around 8 to 8½ percent
by the end of next year. I wish I could forecast a faster improvement,
but it will take time to resolve the difficult adjustments now under way
in the labor markets. The contraction in the real estate sector and in
sectors closely related to residential construction, such as mortgage
brokerage, means that many workers will likely need to find jobs in
other industries and this will take time. The productivity gains
occurring in other sectors also suggest that many workers may need
updated skills to find their next job. This may be particularly relevant
for the long-term unemployed. Monetary policy will not help these types
of adjustments in the labor markets go any faster.

Inflation

Unlike employment, inflation is ultimately a
monetary phenomenon. Headline CPI inflation has been near 1 percent this
year. Even if we omit the prices of energy and food, which tend to be
volatile, core CPI inflation has been just under 1 percent this year,
down from 1¾ percent last year. These low inflation rates have led some
observers to voice concerns that we may be entering a period of
prolonged decline in the level of prices, or sustained deflation.

While I do expect that inflation will be subdued in the near term, I do not see a significant risk of a sustained
deflation. Nominal GDP has been growing at an annual rate of more than 4
percent this year. In contrast, during Japan’s lost decade of the
1990s, when deflation was a serious problem, nominal growth was
essentially zero. Responders to the Philadelphia Fed’s fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters
see only a slight chance of deflation next year. While inflation is
currently lower than the 1½ to 2 percent level many monetary
policymakers would like to see, it does not follow that sustained
deflation is imminent or even likely. It is useful to remember that the
U.S. saw average consumer price inflation of just 1.3 percent through
most of the 1950s and early 1960s. This period of low inflation did not
lead to fears of deflation nor did it lead to economic stagnation.

Moreover, brief periods of lower-than-desired inflation or even
temporary deflation are unlikely to materially affect economic outcomes,
unless they destabilize inflation expectations in a period when
monetary policy could not respond, because rates were already near zero.
In that case, real interest rates would rise, which would encourage
consumers and businesses to save more and spend less. Given that the
Fed’s policy rate is now close to zero, a decline in inflation
expectations would undermine the recovery. Fortunately, this is not
happening. Expectations of medium- to long-term inflation have remained
relatively stable because people expect the Fed to take appropriate
action to keep inflation low, positive, and stable. As the recovery
continues, I anticipate that inflation will return toward 2 percent over
the course of the next year.

Monetary Policy

With inflation currently running lower than what many policymakers
would prefer, and with unemployment remaining very high, the FOMC voted
in November to once again begin purchasing assets to expand its balance
sheet. The FOMC stated its intention to purchase an additional $600
billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second
quarter of 2011.

The public has dubbed this recent asset purchase program “QE2,” which
does not refer to the famous ocean liner but to the Fed’s second round
of asset purchases — what some call quantitative easing. Nearly two
years ago, after the Fed had reduced the federal funds rate to near
zero, it began a program to purchase up to $1.75 trillion in agency
mortgage-backed securities, agency debt, and long-term Treasuries. This
purchase program was completed in March 2010. If the Fed completes the
full amount of the second round, the Fed’s balance sheet will have more
than tripled since mid-2007. The amount of excess reserves held by banks
will approach $1.5 trillion.

Chairman Bernanke has stated that the intention of the current
program is “to support the economic recovery, promote a faster pace of
job creation, and reduce the risk of a further decline in inflation.”1
Proponents expect the security purchases to lower longer-term interest
rates through a portfolio balance effect. That is, as the supply of
longer-term Treasuries available to the public is reduced, prices of
Treasuries should rise, which means yields should fall, to induce the
public to willingly hold the reduced supply. Yields on similar assets
are expected to fall as the public rebalances portfolios away from the
asset with reduced supply toward other similar assets. Just as in
conventional monetary policy, lower interest rates would stimulate
business and consumer demand and increase exports, thus lending support
to the recovery. In some models, the increase in demand leads to a rise
in price levels.

I would note that the U.S. Treasury could achieve this same portfolio
balance effect, in principle, without the Fed’s involvement, if it
chose to issue fewer long-term bonds and more short-term securities. The
Treasury would, of course, face interest rate risk if, when the time
came to roll over this short-term debt, interest rates were higher,
costing the taxpayer more to fund the debt. Yet, the Federal Reserve
also faces interest rate risk by purchasing these long-term government
bonds. If rates go up and the Fed were forced to sell the bonds in order
to prevent inflation, the Fed would take a loss — but so would the
Treasury, since the Fed would not be able to remit as much income back
to the Treasury as it otherwise could. Thus, the public bears the same
risk exposure whether the policy is conducted by the Fed or the U.S.
Treasury.

Because the policy had been anticipated well before the Fed took
action in November, there had already been considerable public
discussion of the pros and cons of the second round of asset purchases.
At that time, based on my reading of the economic outlook, I expressed
the view that I did not think the benefits outweighed the costs.

I am still somewhat skeptical that we will see much of a stimulative
effect from the new round of purchases. The Fed’s first purchase program
worked to lower interest rates, although estimates vary quite a lot.
Some studies suggest that the effect was 30 to 60 basis points. Others
found a much smaller impact.2
Yet, these purchases were done at a time when financial markets were
highly disrupted and asset risk premiums were extremely elevated. But
markets are no longer disrupted, so we cannot expect the same effect
this time. Even if we did, it is not clear to me that a further
reduction in long-term interest rates will do much to speed up the
reduction in the unemployment rate to more acceptable levels. Indeed, if
asset purchases don’t do much to accelerate aggregate demand, then the
argument that the program will reduce the risks of deflation is also
substantially weakened. The asset purchase program may help anchor
expectations of inflation and ensure that they don’t fall. However, one
might ask why adding $600 billion of additional excess reserves would
help anchor expectations of inflation any more so than the $1 trillion
currently in the system.

Thus, I think that the benefits of the purchase program may be
modest. On the other hand, one cost of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet
is that it will complicate our exit strategy from a very accommodative
monetary policy, when that time comes.

History tells us that exiting from an accommodative monetary policy
is always a bit tricky. It is easier to cut rates than it is to raise
them. As I discussed last year, monetary policy must be forward looking
because it works on the economy with a lag. This means that the Fed will
need to begin removing policy accommodation before the unemployment
rate has returned to an acceptable level in order to avoid overshooting,
which would result in greater instability in the economy.

While the high level of excess reserves is not inflationary now, as
the economic recovery strengthens, the Fed must be able to remove or
isolate these reserves to keep them from becoming what I have called the
kindling that could fuel excessive inflation. In other words, if banks
began to put the reserves to use in the same manner as they did before
the crisis, money in circulation would increase sharply. We do not know
when that will happen or how long it will take for the banking system to
make the adjustment. To address this looming challenge, the Fed is
developing and testing tools to help us prevent such a rapid explosion
in money. But, of course, we won’t know for certain how effective these
new tools are until we need to use them in our exit strategy. Nor do we
know how rapidly or how high we may need to raise rates.

Because the Fed’s monetary policy must be forward looking, the hue
and cry from many quarters may be quite loud when it is time to act.
Even with the best of intentions, if we don’t act aggressively and
promptly, we may find ourselves behind the curve and at risk for
substantial inflation. I think we need to bear in mind this future
potential complication when considering further expansion of the Fed’s
balance sheet.

The November FOMC statement External Link
indicated that we will regularly review the purchase program in light
of incoming economic information and adjusting it as needed to foster
our long-run goals of price stability and maximum sustainable
employment. I take this intention to regularly review the program
seriously, and I will be looking for evidence of the hoped-for benefits
as I evaluate the program before each meeting. If we do not see these
benefits, I would not infer that we merely need to increase the size of
the program. Rather, I would take this as evidence that we need to
rethink the analysis of costs and benefits that led us to this policy in
the first place. If the economy grows more quickly than I currently
anticipate, the purchase program will need to be reconsidered and
perhaps curtailed before the full $600 billion in purchases is
completed. On the other hand, if serious risks of deflation or
deflationary expectations emerge, then we would need to consider whether
expanded asset purchases should be used to address these risks.
However, we would then need to clearly communicate that we were taking
this step to combat deflation and deflationary expectations, and not as
an action to speed up the recovery.

Conclusion

In conclusion, our nation’s economy is now emerging from the worst
financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. A relatively
slow but sustainable economic recovery is under way. I expect growth to
be around 2½ percent this year, heading up to 3 to 3½ percent annually
over the next two years.

As the economy continues to gain strength and optimism continues to
grow among businesses, hiring will strengthen. As it does, the
unemployment rate will decline, but it will be a gradual decline. The
shocks we experienced were huge, and it will take some time for the
imbalances in labor markets to be resolved.

The Federal Reserve remains committed to promoting price stability.
This is the most effective way in which monetary policy can contribute
to economic conditions that foster maximum sustainable employment.

As we move forward, I will continue to monitor incoming economic
developments, update my economic outlook as necessary, and assess
whether the stance of monetary policy is well positioned to deliver on
our goals. Should evidence suggest that the new round of asset purchases
is not delivering its intended benefits, and that policy must be
adjusted to foster our long-run goals, I will support an appropriate
adjustment in our policy stance

 

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Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:35 | 772216 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

QE4eva!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:43 | 772244 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Oh WB7, please make this into a tramp-stamp for the boys!

But not on a sexy/trashy version of Lady Liberty please.  I couldn't handle the shame....

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:57 | 772323 knukles
knukles's picture

First Dibs on Calling Bullshit!

Back in the good old days (when things were just a tidge more sane mind you) some of us Bond Daddies (or Vigilantes as the press used to call us) called shit like QE for what it is;

Panic Buying

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:03 | 772373 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QE is a fancy name for monetizing the debt, and is the last gasp of nations. End of story.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:27 | 772517 espirit
espirit's picture

Not until the Fed & Pd's run out of worthless crap to trade back and forth.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:45 | 772591 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh, of course it's magnetization, but that sounds just too, well, intellectual, studious, refined, cerebral, and sorta carries the connotation of under control, disciplined, measured, logical, planned...
Panic Buying just seems the zeitgeist.  For the life of me, I cannot think of how buying another bond, bill or note, mortgage backed, asset backed, equity, junk, uncollateralized IOU's whatthefuckever is gonna do.

Lower interest rates another 5 basis points....at the margin with rates where they are don't mean shit.  Let alone at some point, inflationary expectations take hold and whoopie doopie, no bids in bondville.

Add additional reserves to the banking system...as if there's not a record amount of Net Free Reserves not being used by anybody for any fucking purpose, anyhow.  Except phenomenally unearned undeserved bonuses.

Bang the dollar a bit lower versus the trading partners to goose exports, when America's largest single export is Fucking Waste Paper, and we gotta buy a whole buncha shit load Chinese crap to get the waste paper to export, whatever part gets recycled, anyway.

Ah, Panic Buying just seemed like a good idea at the time.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 04:24 | 774593 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

Great post.

 

"Let alone at some point, inflationary expectations take hold and whoopie doopie, no bids in bondville."

That scares the hell out of me. Once interest rates start climbing, the US is kaboodle. If they can barely keep the economy on a pseudo-life zombie state with real negative rates, QE, etc.  what does that imply when they can no longer control the mid or long bonds?

Greenspan mentioned once that the one thing that scared him was rising long bond rates, that the first thing he does at the beginning and end of the day is to see how the 10 and 30 yr bond rates are doing.

Hmmm...,.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 20:54 | 773842 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

 

Philly Fed's Plosser: If Deflation Accelerates May Need More QE

no, no, no "deflation" as if it were a true 'possible outcome' and prudence, of course...and 'in control' no matter which way it goes inflate/deflate...THAT IS THE MESSAGE, overtly

but near the end of that long long hypnotic speech:

".if we don’t act aggressively and promptly, we may find ourselves behind the curve and at risk for substantial inflation. I think we need to bear in mind this future potential complication when considering further expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet......"  

""risk for substantial inflation"" => THAT IS THE ISSUE

 


 

 

 

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:35 | 772217 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

More COWBELL!!!!!!!!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:36 | 772222 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

.... we will immediately present the latest meltdown in the shadow economy when the quarterly update is posted at noon on December 9.

 

Looking forward to it. Everything IS noise.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:36 | 772224 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Book it.

China = Inflation hub.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:40 | 772234 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This just means that banks will be nationalized, as 'Bernank' couldn't successfully reflate their toxic assets, no matter how hard he tried - and brother, did he try.

The banks around the U.S. and the world, with few exceptions, are a bottomless pit of worthless, accrued assets, on a true net basis, and keeping them alive means money literally can't be printed as quickly as it's being destroyed, EVEN WITH FAIRY TALE VALUATIONS.

 

These comments are a GINORMOUS, RED FLAG tip off that the economy is basically in a depression.

Black Friday will also be renamed Blood Red Friday.

 

Also, that 'wiki' thing probably is going to be HUGE, with 'the Plosser' talking the talk today.

 

Details at 11.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:08 | 772392 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Asange needs to race to dump those bank documents, hell with waiting for January dump em now!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:21 | 772486 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

+1000

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:39 | 772237 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I guess when the only tool you have is a hammer...

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:43 | 772265 reading
reading's picture

A hammer really works great when you don't have a scalpel handy -- if you bludgeon is long enough....right?

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:38 | 772238 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

In other words no one else will buy our debt.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:41 | 772254 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

That's a bingo!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:40 | 772246 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All-out race to tank every currency to -0-, rise it back up under 1 world govt banker control. It will be soon, pensions being seized all across Europe, and they see theres nothing to stop them frankly Id be surprised if meltdown and pension 401K seizing doesnt happen here before Jan.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:51 | 772281 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You won't get an argument from me.

I was a kool-aid drinking 'intellect' at a liberal university at a not too distant past.

This isn't about money; it's about using money as a tool to accrue power. Money is a powerful tool of control.

Or, as it appears in the fine script of a popular media medium ('The Dark Night'):

"You and your kind, all you care about is money. This city deserves a better class of criminal. And I'm gonna give it to them!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr9mqLw9uMw


Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:06 | 772388 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ah yes love that Joker, sick of these common dull criminals. All they care about is money.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:41 | 772249 taraxias
taraxias's picture

QE to infinity bitchez !

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:46 | 772275 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Move over Zimbabwe - QE + n - forever!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:48 | 772288 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

fire away (please)!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:49 | 772296 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Watch the yield curve. The fed is

incompetent. QE2 is an epic fail.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:53 | 772313 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Rates continue to rise. Fed has no

control whatsoever over the yield

curve.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:11 | 772418 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

This is why I am not really a gold bull.    Would you want to own gold in an environment of double digit IRs?  I wouldn't.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 15:36 | 772828 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

The answer to that depends upon the rate of currency depreciation...if the currency loses 15% per annum and you receive 10% interest then gold would still be enticing...not certain if that type of environment has ever existed but we live in atypical times.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 20:38 | 773799 akak
akak's picture

The only way we are going to see interest rates in the low double digits is if (when) inflation rises to the middle double digits.  REAL interest rates of even 6 or 8% would rapidly cause the complete implosion of the US dollar, as the federal deficit (via interest payments on the federal debt) skyrockets to near infinity.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:49 | 772300 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

wow look at'm taking down gold.. when should I step in and scoop more ?

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:07 | 772386 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Just a slight bounce off of the $1400 resistance ($1398.62). Buy now!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:53 | 772314 sabra1
sabra1's picture
CNBC: Fed's Bailout Report Shows Financial Crisis Is Over: Bove

 

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:04 | 772375 buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

Bove weavel wealsel strikes again!!  Someone put a sock in the fall street paid pimps pie hole!!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 13:54 | 772320 RheologyMan
RheologyMan's picture

Treason........is about to be redefined throughout the globe..........no sense in having borders as the updated definition will be outdated by an "in progress" creation of the new ONE WORLD BANKING entity of the TBTF lobbyists.........no seperate independent nations.............just a bunch of peasants looking to buy something (cocoa leaves) to get through the pain of seeing crime(s) really begin to affect their very existence..............Federal employee PAY FREEZE.........WILL SOON BE CHANGED TO PAY RAISES.......JUST WAIT.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:01 | 772353 buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

DINKERS! Dollar inkers to infinity!  bernon burnokio says he wants inflation!!  What better time to devalue the dollar and get all USD hoarders domestic & foreign to dump!!  They'll be screamin more QE as gold hits 2k and silver 60 USD 1st quarter of '11!!  This is what the goonzi's want right now is a dollar crises!  Get all the DIMMS to spend those hoarded dollars like there's no tomorrow ifin you trust in the arm of flesh; paper fiat currency!!  Saw it right off with euro pining and now time for USD ponging!!!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:05 | 772369 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

In conclusion, our nation’s economy is now emerging from entering the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. that's funny when i put the strike through "on emerging" from the system rejects it.

hmmm

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:08 | 772395 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

The Federal Reserve made $9 trillion in overnight loans
to major banks and Wall Street firms during the financial crisis, according to newly revealed data released Wednesday.

US $9 trillion Stimulus and still want more QE ?

Its official: The US is fucked !

and you call Europe an 'experiment'?

 

Usage of Federal Reserve Credit and Liquidity Facilities

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/reform_transaction.htm

 

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:12 | 772425 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

overnight loan =/= stimulus

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:29 | 772528 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Is there a "shadow banking for dummies" or can one of you break it down simply.  Is it all bonds/loans/MBS etc. outside of a standard bank loan?

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:50 | 772625 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Google it.....Or Tyler posted tons of info 1 or 2 years ago.

Siv's,CDSwaps off balance sheet hedgefunds for the banks.

Read all the articles that pop up.

Also ...

http://www.financial-edu.com/history-of-credit-derivatives.php

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:46 | 772608 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

Why do they keep labeling these QE's with impossibly complicated numbers? They need to just introduce QE - I witht eh I standing for infinaty. After all - unless numbers have something to do with "Door Buster Specials" - they are really meaningless anyway.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:52 | 772639 Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Or in other words:  "Spend you bastards, SPEND!"  (clenched fist, menacing posture, loud voice)

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 14:59 | 772677 Black Friday
Black Friday's picture

Quadrillionative Easing coming up!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 15:06 | 772690 T Rex
T Rex's picture

Something stinky cometh.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 16:55 | 773133 NERVEAGENTVX
NERVEAGENTVX's picture

I just love the quoting of all those economic data points that the books are completely cooked on.

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 17:03 | 773149 trav7777
trav7777's picture

QE3 going to be priced in soon...the results of 2.0 are not pleasing the Fed

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 17:33 | 773272 gwar5
gwar5's picture

QE III? That was quick. Can't a guy even finish supper first?

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 17:38 | 773293 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Maybe The BenBernank keeps printing money and people keep removing their reserves from the MiniBernanks to protect themselves, beating the BenBernank.

If everybody is like me there's nothing left in the MiniBernanks

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 18:11 | 773429 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

If the azzhats really wanted inflation all they need do is lower the interest rate on revolving credit to ~ 1% above Fed funds rate and raise the credit limits of every individual that can fog a mirror.

That they will not do this because the bankers are in control of revolving credit rates is telling of who is running the country. CONgress and the Fled are taking their orders from the people behind the screen of GS, JPM, HSBC, et al.

Plusser is full of it....Plus some!

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 18:42 | 773541 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

oh of course an excuse is needed for the financial terrorists to continue their unwanton aggression....yep got to whip deflation now....i'm sure that's what jesus would do....

Thu, 12/02/2010 - 22:07 | 773961 akak
akak's picture

I'm still waiting to see "deflation" ride in on that skittle-shitting unicorn. 

I don't expect to see either one anytime soon.

Anyone (and yes, I mean YOU, Karl Denninger, among others) who is selling the myth of deflation under a fiat-currency regime is either a disingenuous liar in league with the corrupt and sociopathic financial elite, or else is a gullible fool.  Or is an economist in academia, which covers both bases.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 03:43 | 774556 paragshah12
paragshah12's picture

The consequences of federal restraints and a failing economy is the credit crunch, in which banks have to hang on to their cash and loans are unavailable to consumers and small business. This makes economic recovery all the more difficult.
http://www.financemetrics.com/onwards-and-upwards/

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