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PHYSICAL Gold is a Reasonable Investment Right Now

George Washington's picture




 

Washington’s Blog

I believe that physical gold
is a reasonable investment right now based on the following factors: 1)
sovereign defaults; 2) shortages of physical deposits; 3) the dollar;
4) central banks; 5) declining production; 6) inflation; 7) deflation;
8) uncertainty and distrust in government; and 9) flight to safety.

Sovereign Defaults

Iceland, Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain ...

The list of potential sovereign defaults just keeps growing.

As Marc Faber said in February:

The
governments of every developed economy will eventually default on their
sovereign debts, so the one thing he will never do in his life is 'sell
my gold.'

Potential defaulter include the US, the UK and Western Europe.

Speaking
to CNBC in a live interview via telephone, Faber said: "In the
developed world we have huge debt to GDP, in terms of government debt
to GDP and unfunded liabilities that will come due."

"These
unfunded liabilities are so huge that eventually these governments will
all have to print money before they default," he added.

Similarly, Nouriel Roubini said today that sovereign defaults could lead to inflation:

Nouriel
Roubini, the New York University professor who forecast the U.S.
recession more than a year before it began, said sovereign debt from
the U.S. to Japan and Greece will lead to higher inflation or
government defaults.

As discussed below, inflation is
usually considered bullish for gold prices. And defaults would lead to
uncertainty and increased distrust in government, which are bullish as
well.

Shortage of Physical Deposits

As whistleblower Andrew Maguire - a London metals trader formerly of Goldman Sachs - says, gold and silver bullion markets are rigged (and see this).

Omnis' Jim Rickards, GATA's Adrian Douglas and others have demonstrated that the big bullion dealers and ETFs don't have nearly as much as physical bullion as they claim.

Should
a substantial portion of investors in these vehicles demand physical
delivery at the same time, it could cause a panic in the gold market
which would cause a huge run up in gold prices.

The Dollar

While the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold occasionally breaks down, it usually holds true.  As Jonathan Ratner notes:

Those that follow the gold and currency markets know that the price of
bullion and the U.S. dollar typically move in opposite directions.
However, this negative correlation can turn positive from time to time
and is happening now.

***

 

Historically, episodes of U.S. dollar appreciation coupled with
rising gold prices tend to be fleeting, according to Stéfane Marion,
chief economist and strategist at National Bank Financial.

In a
note to clients he wrote, "...we still think that the historical
negative correlation between gold and the greenback will resume once
the uncertainty is lifted about the introduction of credible loan
programmes between eurozone partners to help certain members reduce
their fiscal deficits."

***

According to Deutsche Bank, gold has decoupled from the dollar since at least the end of March.

Jim Rickards argues that the dollar will eventually be devalued to half of its current value, so that America can afford to service its debt.

While the dollar might rally in another stock market crash, the long-term trend of the dollar is strongly downward, favoring gold.

China, India, Russia and Other Gold Buyers

As Lawrence Williams wrote Tuesday, gold sales by central banks are virtually-nonexistent.

In fact, many central banks are buying large quantities of the shiny yellow metal.

Commentators such as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Byron King
argue that China's hunger for gold will put a floor on gold prices.
Specifically, they argue that China will "buy the dips" in gold prices,
effectively putting a minimum on how low gold prices can go.

Indeed, former chief Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg argues that because China will buy a lot of gold, gold will shoot to $2,600/ounce.

In December, Goldman Sachs predicted
that gold will shoot past $1,400/ounce by 2011, largely on the basis of
central banks becoming net buyers of gold, gold ETFs continuing to buy
substantial volumes, and real estate prices being depressed.

As Reuters India noted on March 29th:

China's
gold demand is expected to double over the next decade due to jewellery
consumption and investment needs, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in
its first report on the world's fastest growing consumer of the metal.

***

 

If the central bank boosts gold holdings to 2.2 percent of forex
reserves, a peak level seen in 2002, from the current 1.6 percent,
China's total incremental demand would rise by 400 tonnes at the
current gold price, the WGC report said.

 

China's share of
global gold demand doubled from 5 percent in 2002 to 11 percent in
2009, and the council predicted that China's domestic gold mines could
be exhausted within six years.

 

"The Chinese gold industry is simply not responding fast enough to bring in new supply," it said.

And see this.

India's central bank has also bought large amounts of gold, and Russia is said to be looking to buy gold as well.

Even small countries such as Sri Lanka and Mauritius are buying large quantities of gold.

Declining Production

China is not the only country facing declining gold production.

The world's biggest gold producer - Barrick - says
that the relatively easy-to-reach gold supplies are gone, and so
supplies are getting more and more expensive to locate and extract:

Aaron
Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant [Barrick], said that
global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the
start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore
quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight
years may have further to run.

 

"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London.

 

"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since,
and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult
to find ore," he said.

Mining-Technology.com stated in March 2008:

Global
gold production has been in steady decline since 2002. Production in
2007 was around 2,444t, down 1% on the previous year.

 

Analysts
note that virtually all of the low-lying fruit has now been picked with
respect to gold, meaning that companies will have to take on more
challenging and more expensive projects to meet supply. The extent to
which the current high price of gold can translate into profits remains
to be seen...

 

According to Bhavesh Morar, national leader of the
mining, energy and infrastructure group with Deloitte Australia,
frenzied exploration activity over the last few years has seen
virtually all of the easy harvest been picked with respect to gold...

 

The
high price of gold is however encouraging more adventurous projects, be
they more challenging financially, geologically, geopolitically or all
three. New projects for gold and other resources are mushrooming
throughout Africa, China, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union;
all areas where sovereign risk is potentially very high.

Zeal Speculation and Investment wrote last July:

Miners
have the same geological landscape to work with today as those miners
thousands of years ago. The only difference is the low-hanging fruit
has already been picked. Gold producers must now search for and mine
their gold in locations that may not be very amenable to mining. Many
of today’s gold mines are located in parts of the world that would not
have even been considered in the past based on geography, geology,
and/or geopolitics.

 

And these factors among many are
attributable to an alarming trend we are seeing in global mined
production volume. According to data provided by the US Geological
Survey, global gold production is at a 12-year low. And provocatively this downward trend has accelerated during a period where the price of gold is skyrocketing.

 

 

 

You
would think that with the price of gold rising at such a torrid pace
gold miners would ramp up production in order to profit from this
trend. But as you can see in this chart this has not been the case, at
all. Not only has gold production not responded, but it has dropped at
an unsightly pace that has sent shockwaves throughout the gold trade.

 

 

As the red line illustrates gold’s secular bull began in 2001, finally
changing direction after a long and brutal bear market drove down
prices to ridiculous lows in the $200s. To match this bull the
blue-shaded area provides a picture of the corresponding global
production trend. And you’ll notice that in the first 3 years of gold’s
bull production was steady. This is not a surprise as you figure it
would take the producers a few years to ramp up supply. But instead of
supply increasing in response to growing demand and rising prices, it
took a turn to the downside. And what’s even more amazing is the
persistence of this downtrend. Since 2001 gold production is down a
staggering 9.3%! In 2008 there were 7.7m fewer ounces of gold produced than in 2001.

Also in July, Whiskey and Gunpowder posted a chart on historical gold production, and argued for decreasing production:

Take a look at the chart below from Macquarie Research, depicting world gold production 1850-2008...

[Click here for full chart]

For
example, look at the very steep rise in gold output during the 1930s.
That was during the depths of the worldwide Great Depression.

In
both the US/Canada (blue area), and the rest of the world (gray area),
people were digging more and more gold. The Soviets (purple area)
increased their gold output too, courtesy of Joseph Stalin and his
Gulag. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose. Will
that sort of history repeat this time around?

Or look at that
massive run-up in gold output from South Africa (green area) in the
1950s and 1960s. That was during a time when South Africa was
instituting its post-World War II system of apartheid. Labor was cheap
(sorrowfully cheap), and quite a lot of international investment poured
into South Africa without moral qualm. The South Africans dug deep and
just plain tore into those gold-bearing reef structures of the
Witwatersrand Basin.

But notice how quickly the South African
gold output declined in the 1970s, as the mines got REALLY deep and the
rest of the world began to institute sanctions against South Africa
over its apartheid system.

And then look at the Gold Price
run-up that followed in the late 1970s. It was a time of inflation,
mainly coming from the US Dollar. Yet world gold mine output was
dropping as well. Falling output, plus monetary inflation? The Gold
Price skyrocketed. Another bit of useful history, right?

Now
let's focus on more recent history, since about 1990. There were large
increases in gold output from the US/Canada (blue), Australia (gold)
and Asia (China orange, non-China open bar). By 2000 or so – the world
production peak – Gold Prices were down toward $300 per ounce and below.

But
as the chart shows, in the past 10 years, gold output has shown a
marked DECLINE in the major historic Gold Mining regions. The prolific
gold output from the US/Canada, Australia and South Africa has followed
downward trends. Sure, these regions still lift a lot of ore and pour a
lot of melt. But the production trend is DOWN.

The US/Canada,
Australia and South Africa all have well-established and (more or less)
workable mining laws – despite the best efforts of many current
politicians and regulators to screw it all up. These historically
producing areas are politically stable. Overall, there's good mining
infrastructure, with road and rail networks, power systems, refining
plants, a vendor base, mining personnel and access to capital.

But
that's not the case in many areas of the developing parts of the world.
Political stability? Security? Infrastructure? Transport? Power?
Refining? Vendors? Personnel? Capital? Everywhere is different, of
course. But overall, the entire process is much more problematic. So
there's a lot more risk. When you move away from the traditional mining
jurisdictions, the whole process of exploration, development and mining
is more expensive.

Thus, the new gold discoveries of the future
are going to lack some (if not most, or perhaps all) of the advantages
of the developed mining world. That means that the ore deposits of the
future will have to offer much higher profit margins, based on size and
ore grade, to compensate for the increased risks. Too bad Mother Nature
(or Saint Barbara, who looks after miners) doesn't work that way.

It
also means the timeline to develop the mines of the future will likely
be stretched over many years while political, legal, bureaucratic,
logistical and social issues are ironed out.

The key driver for the future of worldwide gold supply will be DECLINING output overall over time.

Of course, if the price of gold warrants ramping up, then production will increase.
Just as with discussions about peak oil, the issue is not that the
resource is totally running out, it is that it will be more and more
expensive to extract.

Inflation

It is conventional wisdom that gold is a hedge against inflation.

For example:

  • Noted inflationist John Williams advises buying gold
  • Axel Merk argues that gold is a better buy than TIPS as an inflation bet
  • Nassim Taleb advised buying gold, since currencies including the dollar and euro face pressures

John Paulson argues that gold is something you buy-and-hold for at least the medium term:

Paulson
is convinced that gold will be a very good way to protect himself from
the eventuality of currency debasement (i.e., inflation). He observed
that if one thinks about gold in a three- or five-year time horizon
(instead of hour to hour, day to day or week to week), the probability
increases of gold being higher over time...

Deflation

If gold does well during times of inflation, it makes sense that it would perform poorly during deflationary periods.

But Examiner.com points out that such an assumption is probably untrue. Specifically, as Examiner.com writes:

Eric Sprott - who manages $4.5 billion in assets, and correctly predicted in March of 2008 a "systemic financial meltdown” - says:

“I
believe no matter what environment you’re in - deflation or inflation -
people will run to gold,” Sprott said. “Gold is proving exactly what we
all would have expected, that in almost any environment, it’s a go-to
asset.”

Investment analyst and financial writer Yves Smith argues that gold does well during both periods of deflation and high inflation. She argues:

Historically,
gold does well [in] hyperinflation and deflationary [periods]. Gold
does poorly under more normal conditions, and gets hammered in
disinflationary conditions, a falling but positive rate of inflation.

Analyst Adrian Ash argues that gold's value actually increases during periods of deflation even if its price drops:

Does the price of gold rise or fall in a deflation?

 

Hint: It’s a trick question, already tripping up plenty of would-be advisors...

 

Absent the money-supply limits which the gold standard imposed on the
world, people rightly guess that double-digit inflation would prove
rocket-fuel for the bull market in gold. Yet the purchasing power of gold nearly doubled during the Great Depression, and it’s risen four-fold during this decade’s low consumer-price inflation as well.

 

Why?
Because both those periods of low price-inflation saw the money-issuing
authorities devalue the currency, first with explicit reference to gold
but now without daring to name it. Roosevelt in the mid-30s slashed the
dollar’s gold content by 40%; the Greenspan/Bernanke Fed devalued the
Dollar again to sidestep a DotCom Depression, keeping real interest
rates at less than zero, between 2002-2005.

 

The maestro’s
apprentice applied the same trick in the back-half of 2008, but so far
to no avail. And now even the European Central Bank is pumping out
money – a near half-trillion euros today alone – in a bid to revive
bank lending, swamp the currency markets, and pull Germany out of its
first flirt with deflation since the 1930s.

 

Just such a
devaluation – and again, absent any stated reference to gold – was
attempted by the Bank of Japan a little less than a decade ago.

 

Indeed,
Japan is the only developed nation since the end of the gold standard
to have suffered an extended deflation in prices. So far, at least.
Germany and Switzerland look set to try for a re-wind, and unless the
dollar can outpace the euro’s descent, we might yet see truly sub-zero
inflation in the United States, too.

 

But whatever that should
mean for gold prices, all other things being equal, just doesn’t
matter. Because the gold price will not get a chance. All other things are not
equal, and the policy solution – rank devaluation – can only make gold
more appealing to investors and savers, whether the “monetarist
experiment” of TARP, quantitative easing or a half-trillion euros
proves successful or not.

 

Japan’s slump into deflation coincided
with the Bank of Japan’s “zero interest rate policy” (ZIRP) at the
start of this decade. It also saw the gold price worldwide hit
rock-bottom and turn higher, a move that analysts (including us) have
typically linked to US monetary moves and investment cash looking for
safety as the Dotcom Bubble exploded.

 

But zero-rate money from
the world’s second-largest economy shouldn’t be ignored. And today,
zero-rate money is all the developed world has to offer – a trick that
might not beat deflation, but might just spur a whole new rush into
gold.

In other words, Ash argues that you can't take
inflation or deflation in a vacuum. During deflationary periods,
governments always increase the money supply with a flood of new dollars, which is bullish for gold.

And economist Marc Faber wrote in October 2007 that gold will do well even in a deflation:

How
would gold perform in a deflationary global recession? Initially gold
could come under some pressure as well but once the realization sinks
in how messy deflation would be for over-indebted countries and
households, its price would likely soar.

Therefore, under both
scenarios - stagflation or deflationary recession - gold, gold equities
and other precious metals should continue to perform better than
financial assets.

Is Faber right?

Well, take
a look at the following charts showing gold's performance as compared
to the yen during Japan's "lost decade" of deflation:


Japan's deflation didn't definitively end until 2007 or 2008.

This provides some evidence that gold may tend
to hold or increase its value at least in the later part of the
deflationary period as compared with the relevant national currency.

Moreover - approximately half the time - gold has risen during recessions in the United States:

 

(The grey vertical bars show periods of recession; the chart gives gold prices in monthly averages; click here for larger image).

If you study the above chart, you will see that gold seems to often fall during the beginning stages of a recession, then rise in the later stages of the recession (before 1971, the dollar was still backed by gold at a fixed price, and so gold did not fluctuate).

But what about Ash's theory?

The American Enterprises Institute notes:

After
five years in a deflationary economic wilderness, the Bank of Japan
switched during the spring of 2001 to a policy of quantitative
easing--targeting the growth of the money supply instead of nominal
interest rates--in order to engineer a rebound in demand growth.

Look again at the first gold chart for Japan, above. Gold appears to start increasing against the Yen in 2001.

This may provide some evidence for Ash's thesis that it is an expansion of the money supply which pushes the price of gold up in the later stages of deflationary periods.

Uncertainty

Chris Martenson argues
that - in prolonged periods of deflation - we usually see failures of
large and significant banks, institutions, and perhaps even states and
countries. (Because gold traditionally does well during periods of
uncertainty, Martenson likes gold during periods of deflation).

Examiner.com notes in a subsequent article:

Merrill Lynch agrees.

Specifically, PhD economist Nouriel Roubini paraphrases a report from Merill Lynch (not available online) as follows:

Short-term rates of
0% are bullish for gold, which serves as a store of value but is a
useful hedge against deflation as well, since deflation is inherently
destabilizing for financial assets. In the 2001-03 deflationary period,
gold rose more than 30%, not to mention the prospect of a return to a
dollar bear market. "Gold is inversely correlated to global short-term
interest rates and there is a race right now towards 0%. Production is
down 4.0% y/y while fiat currencies globally are being created at a
double digit rate by the world's central banks....As for all the talk
of a 'gold bubble,' it would take a nearly 625% surge in gold to over
US$6,000/oz and a flat stock market to actually get the ratio of the
two asset classes back to where it was three decades ago when bullion
was in an unsustainable bubble phase."

Gold tends to be less
sensitive to global economic slowdown than industrial metals or energy
and works better as a hedge against crisis than inflation.

(If global short-term interest rates rise, that would obviously be bearish for gold.)

See also Fred Sheehan's summary of Roy Jastram's study of the performance of gold during deflationary periods throughout history.

Distrust in Government

Time Magazine writes:

Traditionally, gold has been a store of value when citizens do not trust their government politically or economically.

Given the enormous levels of distrust in government politically and/or economically in the U.S. and globally, gold might do well. (and see this.)

Also,
as mentioned above, gold tends to do well during periods of
uncertainty. Given that the fundamental problems with the economy have
not been fixed, things will likely become less certain.

Greenspan and Exeter

Professor
Emeritus of Mathematics Antal Fekete has argued for years that gold is
the ultimate - and only - safe haven when things really hit the fan.

For example, in 2007 Fekete wrote:

The
grand old man of the New York Federal Reserve bank’s gold department,
the last Mohican, John Exter explained the devolution of money (not his
term) using the model of an inverted pyramid, delicately balanced on
its apex at the bottom consisting of pure gold. The pyramid has many
other layers of asset classes graded according to safety, from the
safest and least prolific at bottom to the least safe and most prolific
asset layer, electronic dollar credits on top. (When Exter developed
his model, electronic dollars had not yet existed; he talked about FR
deposits.) In between you find, in decreasing order of safety, as you
pass from the lower to the higher layer: silver, FR notes, T-bills,
T-bonds, agency paper, other loans and liabilities denominated in
dollars. In times of financial crisis people scramble downwards in the
pyramid trying to get to the next and nearest safer and less prolific
layer underneath. But down there the pyramid gets narrower. There is
not enough of the safer and less prolific kind of assets to accommodate
all who want to "devolve”. Devolution is also called "flight to
safety”.

Darryl Schoon makes the same argument.

Here's a visual depiction Exeter's inverted pyramid, courtesy of FOFOA:

 

(Click here
for full image; I can't vouch for the accuracy of the rankings for all
of the levels . . . for example, muni bonds versus corporate bonds)

Last September, Alan Greenspan lent some support to the theory. Specifically:

Gold
prices that jumped above $1,000 an ounce this week are signaling that
investors are buying metals to hedge against declines in currencies,
former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said.

 

The gains
are “strictly a monetary phenomenon,” Greenspan said today at an
investment conference in New York. Rising prices of precious metals and
other commodities are “an indication of a very early stage of an
endeavor to move away from paper currencies,” he said...

 

“What
is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the
financial system as the ultimate source of payment,” Greenspan said.

In
other words, Greenspan is saying that investors are moving out of the
second-to-lowest step on the pyramid (currencies and government bonds)
and into the lowest step (gold).

Greenspan is also verifying what
goldbugs like Exeter, Fekete and Schoon have been claiming: that "the
barbarous relic" still holds an important place in the modern
investor's psyche.

Indeed, Tyler Durden and David Goldman
argue that the response of investors to the PIIGS' debt crisis shows
that Exeter is right, and that the shift from currencies to gold is already occurring.

Only time will tell if they are right.

Note: I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice.

 

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Fri, 04/30/2010 - 12:12 | 325631 mchandler@ameri...
mchandler@ameritech.net's picture

Figure there is also a certain amount of skimming at the mine level by operators/owners.  What better way to save than directly with no tax and no records.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 12:03 | 325600 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

Semi-related. Take a look at that casket! Murdered Carl Williams buried in gold casket:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/30/2886516.htm

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 16:37 | 326090 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Somebody will be digging that sucker up.   Probably a "business" partner.  It's probably gold foil over particle board.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 17:17 | 326172 Bear
Bear's picture

Maybe gold paint ... dig away

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:53 | 325567 sheeple
sheeple's picture

Very nice breakdown George Washington, thank you.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:50 | 325561 dumpster
dumpster's picture

what old stale news .

bandwagon.. ANY one with a scintilla of understanding , had this gold move square on at many many up ticks ago.

gold has been a resonable investment to preserve buying power for ten years ,

of coure the smart money has shown that with a long term chart of gold

 

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:47 | 325557 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

At the risk of enraging silver bugs, I have been trading silver for gold. Gold has been acting like money since the crisis started, but silver has been acting like an industrial commodity. Remember the crash into the 9s? Sure, it doubled again but I don't like the ride.

 

Gold will be at the heart of the next monetary system. That's why central banks hoard it. Silver? Not so much.

Rebuttal, bitches?

 

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 14:03 | 325837 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Rebuttal?  Not so much, but I am happy to take the other side of that trade.  I think that either way, we will both be sitting in the shade sipping gin and tonics while the paper bugs are mowing our respective lawns.

I would argue that the central banks don't hold silver any more because industrial uses were found for it, so they could accumulate more purchasing power by selling the silver.  Of course, now there isn't any left, and the people who knew why they held silver are long dead.  

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 12:46 | 325678 Gunther
Gunther's picture

ITG,

supply and demand:

There are way less known hoards of gold then Silver.

A while ago was an analysis published at the oildrum.com how long known mining can continue in terms of current production versus known ore. Silver in the ground will be mined in about ten years, way before gold.

On the demand side silver gets used up in various industrial processes where it is hard to recover and price-insensitive. Moreover, it is known as the poor man's gold and the second monetary metal.

If the goldbugs disagree with silver being money, look at what the shorts are doing when they try to bring the price down. Silver and gold are sold at the same time.

If you look at a long-term-gold/silver-ratio-chart the ratio is high when the prices are low (in bear markets) and low when prices are high (at the end of bull markets).

 

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 12:22 | 325655 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

So you reckon silver will become the new copper - maybe.

I keep a 10% ratio for the worst case scenario but was pleasantly surprised by talk of massive silver manipulation due to the fact that few large buyers take physical delivery.

I personally cannot see it being taken out of the monetary equation in a age of deglobalisation.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:41 | 325544 Trace Mayer J.D.
Trace Mayer J.D.'s picture

Here is an updated and pretty version of the Liquidity Pyramid.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:28 | 325527 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

in this rigged market, I am concerned about the insiders vs. fundamentals.

It seems the right way to play this poker game is not your own cards(fundies) but how your opponents are betting.

If the big banks/hedge funds run the game and they are shelling out gold, can't the gold market be depressed tremendously by TPTB?  

Especially when seeing the above report that outsider banks might be taking more physical delivery, supplied by JP Morgan.

 

So when the likes of JP Morgan is divested of most of its gold at high prices, won't they then be incentivized (in concert w/ others) to take down the gold market?  Isn't the gold market small enough for tremendous manipulation?

 

Or is there so much demand on the other side by the rest of us that it would backfire on the insiders?

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:16 | 325503 Calmly Waiting ...
Calmly Waiting for the Collapse's picture

A better time to buy it was when it was $650 and a bit more an oz.

 

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

 

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:52 | 325565 dumpster
dumpster's picture

haaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

even better time was 300

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:44 | 325549 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:16 | 325502 Jesse
Jesse's picture

 

Looks like Bank of Nova Scotia just picked up about 1.7 tonnes.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/04/guess-who-took-delivery-of-17-tons-of.html

And of course, the seller was JPM

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:10 | 325492 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Look at the production curve...either in aggregate or nation-by-nation.

THERE is your Peak theory, right there.

Despite a freaking 300 or 400% runup in the price, NO NEW SUPPLY.  Right here we have actual production figures BITCH SLAPPING a fundamental "axiom" of all economics theory right in the face before issuing an institutional beatdown to it with dimension lumber.

The economists were WRONG.  Higher prices do not cause more supply; they only do when they CAN.  Economists DID NOT accept and DO NOT RECOGNIZE that supply rates can peak!  This shit to them is TOTALLY unforseen.  The reason for this is because their stupid theories and schools were hashed out 100 years ago when supplies could grow YoY seemingly forever.  Hubbert didn't release his Peak Theory in oil until the 1950s and he was laughed at for forecasting something coming to the USA 20 years hence.

The economists assume ever-increasing supply and they are in charge; they have the ears of the "leadership" and they assume rosy scenarios.

At least with gold, all the supply ever mined is still here; with oil, every last barrel has been burnt.  This should serve as a warning to peak deniers like Douchinger because gold's supply data is better-developed than oil's.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:29 | 325517 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Trav7777 - I think you are right up to a point but you also have to factor in how coming off the gold standard affected companies and government's ability to build new energy capital.

After the ultimate symbol of capital was downgraded the last check on the Keynesian monetarist consumption accelerator was no more.

Countries or companies who wished to push against the Washington consensus had to for example go into massive fiscal debt to build nuclear and the like yet the debt costs were similar for a country which wished to turbocharge consumption.

They also felt the heat from the FEDs proxies such as the IMF.

There will have to be a subdivision where more consumption above income is heavily penalised with extreme interest and productive non oil based capital spending getting essentially free money.

 

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:53 | 325575 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I look at it like this:  the world has been on ZIRP since Japan hit the supply-side wall in the late 80s.

Against that backdrop, and steadily rising price trends, I can name several commodities for which there have been peak supply rates followed by declines and no amount of repricing has affected this.  Peak is a real phenomenon and no amount of monetary crap can undo it.  Being on or off the gold standard changes nothing.

The US maintained the BW gold standard until domestic supply peaked.  We're down 40% in production since then.  Free money, gold, none of this matters.  The earth's ability to produce or deliver the commodity is all that is relevant.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 12:12 | 325630 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Well the earths ability to produce is dependent on how much energy we can produce and then utilise this energy to extract.

The Monetary system does matter , some free marketeers believe it is some sort of natural phenomena, it is of course a man made symbolic construct.

However it is the rules we choose to live with - as I said earlier the present system is geared towards consumption and does not recognize that fossil fuels are finite.

So the obvious solution is to recognize oil depletion in its accounting.

The solution is to give free money to enterprises that increase the non oil / gas energy capital and to penalise consumption above income levels.

Eventually the system will again get into some sort of balance as the increased energy capital will slowly overpower depletion.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:02 | 325473 MaxFrost
MaxFrost's picture

Gold? Are you nuts? There's no practical commercial use for it, it doesn't pay interest, you can't eat it, and they won't accept it at my local shop!

Hah! Just kidding! Gold bitchez!

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 10:53 | 325456 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

And see this, also :

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/04/guess-who-took-delivery...

I have the utmost respect for Jesse, and this little entry on his blog is a bombshell.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:35 | 325538 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Its just a matter of time now that taking physical delivery will show what  a farce the paper gold market is... prepare for a repeat of an age old history lesson.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:13 | 325496 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

This could set the cat amongst the pigeons.

I am starting to think that keeping 20% Euro cash / gov bonds is a falsely conservative play.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 04:56 | 325050 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

We live in a strange financial world - our betters seem to think that the removal of some government bond blocks will be the best way to preserve the integrity of the debt pyramid.

If they continue with this madness we will be left with just the gold base - lets at least try to mark down bank balance sheets to their true value which is zero or negative , seize the deposits to build new but smaller banks with much lower fractional reserves , give the bank bondholders the equity if they want which will be next to useless mortgage paper and issue new debt free government paper to rebuild some constructive physical capital and counter the contraction in the economy that will be result from the above policey decisions.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 03:29 | 325011 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

It is not a "reasonable" investment - it is the ONLY investment right now.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 13:10 | 325730 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Food, water and shelter are not investments, they are necessities; requirements.  At this juncture in human history, gold can be added to that list.

Calling it an "investment" just shows the type of mentality that prevails in the world today.  Earthquakes are rupturing the land, volcanoes are spewing toxic dust into the atmosphere, man-made disasters are spoiling the oceans, war, famine, pestilence, greed, gluttony, stupidity...we are in times of Biblical proportions, and yet these guys still want to talk about investments.

It doesn't get any sillier than that.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 16:35 | 326085 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

!

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 13:52 | 325809 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You can invest in necessities.  One might buy enough rice to feed his whole neighborhood for a year, and enough guns and ammo to defend it, then he can get damn near anything he wants in trade in the even of a supply chain collapse.

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 13:46 | 325799 Hulk
Fri, 04/30/2010 - 11:58 | 325587 sheeple
sheeple's picture

Frustration roams when sheeples (cough cough, some are bankers) confidently argues that "gold could not buy grocery", or "you live in a cave" ... having said that, ppl that I talk to who possesses gold are very knowledgeable on global current events and great students to historic literatures, coincident?

Fri, 04/30/2010 - 03:17 | 325005 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Sovereign defaults?

 

Lets see.

One key element in the current organization is that most of the supporting countries (the ones ultimately valorizing the freshly emitted credits) are unilaterally indebted to supported countries(the ones emitting the credits)

This opens the door to unilateral manipulation of their debt, a good way to keep them when they are desesperately needed.

Now what will happen if some countries part of the supported countries default?

That'd be a justification for the farmed countries just to walk away. Leading to some harsh answers as an extorter cant allow the cattle they are living on to quit the scheme.

 

So what? These sovereign defaults should only be spoken of when they do happen. Not their prospect.

 

Gold: it is the right time to buy physical gold as later, it might no longer possible. In the vast transfer of wealth going on, seizing the opportunity is compulsory because tomorrow, when the extraction capabilities are no longer, gold will only be available through recirculation. Meaning that extortion will grow much less easy.

 

Gold as a currency is nutsery. Most people claiming this will be first in line to sell their gold to return in cash as soon as the opportunity rises.

 

To operate an effective transfer, a combination of big carreers and small carreers is the best. Big carreers,  cannot match some effects provided by number.

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