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Pick The Fraud One Out: An Abridged Overview Of US Markets And Economics In Five Plus One Simple Charts
A 3rd grader can pick the [fr]odd one out. Yet Wall Street can't. Can you?
GDP:
Non Farm Payrolls:
M2:
Disposable Income:
New Home Sales:
and, of course, the S&P500:
Courtesy of John Lohman.
For readers who wish to play around with the data and validate all of the above for themselves, the source is the wonderful, unicorny, and rainbowy Federal Reserve itself (link).
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...and we keep adding to it daily....FRICK!!!
I'll go with what's behind curtain number 6!!!
What do I win?
Another 50 points up in the S&P!!!!
A Virginia lawmaker asked the state's attorney general to launch an investigation of Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, the middleman firm in millions of court filings that helps keep the mortgage-securitization machine moving.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870486510457558879158356737...
hey it's vince from 'scam now', former affidavit signer at mers;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm03Dgu_yXA
LOL'
Brilliant, just brilliant, Tyler.
DavidC
LOL
Dammit. I need a clue. I flunked finger painting in high school.
The counselor told me it would come back to haunt me and she was right. Dammit.
So you tested poorly as a manicurist... how did you score on the pedicure exam?
mammalian or avian?
That was Ovian.
...and that econ data is with trillions in funny money crammed into the economy...
I call 2 frauds, the first and the last charts
I was thinking the same thing. But wtf do I know, I'm not an ivy league economist.
The frauds are the first and last. The fraud in the first is created by (in part) the phony value in the last. I think the first is the greater fraud. We all know stock prices are being pumped full of Fedo-directo-injecto, through banks into corporations (including the banks themselves) so they can buy their own stocks and goose demand/share price so the CEO's can skim their multimillion dollar bonuses and "incentives" (incentives for further rigging and fraud)
I don't know. I'm pretty sure they are all fraudulent. That is my default position on government data these days.
All government data is based on Perception not any actuall math
I think that gives it too much credit.
I actually just finished Macroeconomics in college and now taking Microeconomics, and I can tell you, even the instructors are slamming the FED and its policies right now. And yes, you are 100% correct, that economics is all THEORY!!! Every bit of it, and is taught as such.
You may be entirely correct. But it's practiced as FACT, to the detriment of us all.
Aboslutely no argument from me on that statement. They do practice it like its factual, and none of it is. Some like Benny Boy, even go overboard trying to prove it.
so where are all these educators coming out in academic texts, tv, local papers, etc shit talking the fed?
Good question.
Though admittedly I had had high hopes regarding your 'point of view' Macho, even though we have differences of opinion.
Regards
what the hell does this mean
heh, just what is says:
"Good question", where are all these academics that are supposedly swimming upstream?
"...had had hopes..." I thought you yourself might be one of those very think-tankers you were asking about, but apparently you're simply rational.
"..differences.." Well, I think you know where I stand on the 'flations.
All in all, it meant:
Respect.
Does the internet count? I have made a political cartoon video in which CNBS ho Err'n Boobette interviews Feral Reserve chairman Benron about his latest academic paper, Monetary Policy at the Upper Bound: Printing Past Infinity. Check it out.
www.oppressedmonkey.com
It is a comedy. I hope you enjoy it.
Not just Economics, maybe all the sciences. For example, even in the so called 'Queen of the Sciences' Astronomy the silver-backed assholes at the top of the academic food chain present obvious hallucinations such as 'Big Bang', 'Black Holes', 'Dark Matter' etc. as FACT. Time to get back to real observation and lab experimentation and maybe take the weavers of beautiful equations a bit less seriously as they seem to be able to assist the propagation of practically any cockamamie notion...
Ah, Pope, but such theoretical excercises obviate the need for the hands-on experimental work that the illuminati detest. The aristocrats cannot deign to dirty their hands with such actual labor as is required in physical laboratory experimentation. Plus, the scientific method opens the possibility to conclusively disprove hypotheses, which their neo-feudalist world views cannot permit.
maybe all the sciences -- Nope. Quantum physics in theory made your computer in fact (semiconductors). Economics has an insanity all of it's own.
To me, flight pretty much proves that physics might actually have something to it.
Number of dimensions = Infinity. All science problems solved.
In that vein, the first thing you learn in college level engineering is dimensional analysis - everything can be reduced into units of length, mass, and time. One way to solve a problem you can't understand is to make sure the units match.
In the case of the FED, Investment + Consumption + Income - Net Exports = The Print Button
:D
You seem very confused about the scientific process. This is how it works. First you formulate a theory, typically as a set of equations. Then you solve the equations to make a prediction that can be tested by observation. If the theory keeps making successful predictions, it gradually becomes confirmed.
Sometimes predictions of new theories can seem counter-intuitive. For examples Einstein's famous prediction that the gravity of the sun bends the light from the stars. This particular "obvious hallucination" has been very solidly confirmed by numerous observations. Also many other predictions of the General Theory of Relativity have all been confirmed by observations, including Black Holes.
The Big Bang is fairly well confirmed by now. The jury is still very much out on Dark Matter. The point is that science is a process where theory (equations) makes predictions tested by observations. The process filters out and keeps the theories that make accurate and useful observations. It's not either equations or observations, both are necessary. BTW, this is why Intelligent Design is not science. It might even be true, but because it doesn't make predictions, it's not science!
Who are these "silver-backed assholes at the top of the academic food chain" who claim Dark Matter is a fact?!? Can you name at least one?
Cull, I am calling you out on this one. Einstein's theories are proven because of real time observations. The Big Bang is a conceptual idea that CANNOT be proven. No one was there to observe it. Since no one was there to observe it and I do not know of any experiments to reproduce it, it is nothing but sheer speculation. Science is built upon the concept of speculation in theories backed by observations. As long as it remians a theory, this is OK. It is not possible to call it a fact though. Any one who calls an unproven fact does not know what they are talking about or are nothing more than an educated idiot.
-Doctor Vampy
ermmm, try fail, fail, and double fail. Einstein was a charlatan and a fraud. Sun-bending-light test - unconfirmed. Big bang? Bwahahahaha. FAIL. Atomic clocks in jet planes? Inconclusive and fraudulent. Karl Popper is spinning in his grave. You are an adherent of a religion, and your priests are scientists. Get down on your knees and kiss the Pope's ring. True believer----in science, falsely so called....
Don't wanna betray nobody, don't wanna be betrayed,Don't wanna play with nobody, don't wanna be waylaid.
Don't wanna miss nobody, don't wanna be missed,
Don't put my faith in nobody, not even a scientist.
.
I was so disappointed when I took macroeconomics because there was so little math involved.
They really should rename it Keynes 101 or, how to unthinking while thinking
I was so traumatized that, it is to the point now where most old white things from Great Britain scare me...
I actually enjoyed my economy classes partly because I had them in a private school and it was pretty well balanced, the techer(s) where also relatively objective(I studied in Europe)
By that, do you mean the tangentially approached the topic of Austrian economics?
I remember (vividly) from Macroeconomics, the derivation of the equation for the money multiplier....... given a 1/10 reserve ratio requirement, the total money creation when a deposit is made came out to be a geometric series that we couldn't understand until the higher math classes that came later.
They simplified it to the point where credit ratings, demand for loans, and business investment were not variables. I think Birkenstock Ben has also made this same (fatal) oversimplification...........
No, economics is not even a THEORY it is more like a "RELIGION" at least according to W's first Secretary of Treasury Paul O,Neill (book by Suskind: "The Price of Loyalty"). The graphs here and the aftermath since 9/15/2008 crash is one more proof.
If you put the Congress the President and the FED in a very big asylumn(the size of a small city) and put plasma TVs for windows to simulate the outside world do you think they would notice the difference ?
They would still be talking to themselves(from behind a teleprompter), making up statistics and doing hookers(yes an asylumn with a built in brothel), I don't think they would notice it's all the reality they have ever known
"All government data is based on Perception not any actuall math"
And all science is faith-based these days too. What a mess we are!
Well I would not say All science (if your refering to Global Warming than yes) but most science is not corrupted (when you do proper theory -> experiment -> conclusion type of science)
Current astronomy and astrophysics are also faith based. Black holes, dark matter, dark energy, CMBR and big bangs are all fictitious entities to help solve faith-based equations. There are simpler, experimentally verifiable explanations for what can actually be seen.
There are simpler, experimentally verifiable explanations for what can actually be seen.
This is remarkable news! Do you have any references?
Sure.
Blog debate on Electric vs. Gravity Universe (with links to videos and many references)
'Thunderbolts of the Gods' (excellent 64 minute video by main proponents of Electric/Plasma Universe) [I recommend ignoring the mythological folklore and mystic speculation of one contributor (David Talbott), unless that stuff floats your boat].
Einstein Was Wrong (list of points of contention compiled by another ZH member)
i,
you the dog! nice links
Thanks for the kind comments, Blindman.
Thank you.
I have nothing against competing scientific theories but I think youre going in the wrong direction, instead of putting forward valid theories based on experiment you try to prove faries exist
The good thing about science is that it does not force you to believe any of it, if you choose so you can be a caveman running away from lions and bears, no1 forces you to accept science(which changes daily) opposite to religion youre expected to believe it and prohibited from questioning any of it, you can at least enjoy the freedom of questioning science
Novel argument! ... demonstrating on an international blog that you can neither read nor maintain the attention span needed to watch a few short videos!!
"(if your refering to Global Warming than yes)"
Heh, 3% of scientists can't be wrong!
There seems to be a lot of science bashing these days. The politics of how science is used is suspect, but the scientific method itself is rigorous and weeds out the faith based stuff quickly. I have been in the company of some pretty sharp scientists, biologists mostly and my uncle is quite literally a rocket scientist, and from my experience nothing is taken on faith. Every possible angle is scrutinized and questioned and studied ad nauseum. It's not all hugs and kisses in the scientific community. Perhaps you are relating to the pseudosciences.
The anti-science thing is bugging me a bit too, but it does appear there's some virulent cross-pollination between the nihilist set and the JBS around these parts.
My suspicion is that the majority of the science bashers don't really have any acquaintence with science and are more (rightfully) angry and frustrated with journalism. They just don't realize that.
To any of them, I'd submit: if "science" is an enemy of yours, please do your part to limit its encroachment and just stop participating. Burn all your electronics, eliminate plastic from your life, quit it with the medical care and dentistry, and stop worrying about birth control. There's only one way to escape science's insidious grasp.
A fair challenge. I sincerely hope they take it up.
"Burn all your electronics, eliminate plastic from your life, quit it with the medical care..."
what a relief that would soon be.
Except that Ghod, Allah, Jehovah, (or whatever your favourite deity happens to be) would, I think, be much happier if you gave all your evil products of science to me, rather than burning them.
my favorite deity is you, GoinFawr. :)
I am a man of science and bashing science for the sake of bashing science is wrong. The problem arises when scientist take data and pervert it for their own dishonest, personal gain. The twisted '60's liberal mindset is rotting the intellectual establishment at the university level. It makes me want to puke. In the long run, it makes them look disreputable.
The scientific method stands apart from the scientists who use it. Certain scientists fail when they allow their work and their cognitive process to be used as a political tool, or worse, if they have a predetermined political view and use their expertise to add authority to their view. So there are grey areas when we consider the human scientists involved in science. It is not as cut and dry as some would have us believe. For instance, I think that most people can agree that climate science is in no way as precise as rocket science. Hell, even rockets blow up on occasion. Basically, Science=good, politicized science=bad.
perhaps debt based. = faith based.?
Real sciences are not faith based. Internet has released large herd of false "prophets" on all fields but still 1+1 = 2. If you jump off the side on Grand Canyon to test your theories of gravity some of us see only "evolution at work".
Economics at all levels is a collection of opinions how people might behave when given different amounts of resources. That makes it all faith based "science" or a religion.
This from Ellen Brown: "Money did not begin with gold coins and evolve into a sophisticated accounting system. It began as an accounting system and evolved into the use of precious metal coins... Sumerian and Egyptian civilizations using these accounting-entry payment systems lasted not just hundreds of years (as with some civilizations using gold) but thousands of years...So many shekels of wheat equaled to so many cows equaled so many shekels of silver, etc. Prices of major commodities were fixed by the government: Hammurabi, Babylonian king and lawmaker, has detailed tables on these. Interest was also fixed and invariable, making economic life very predictable."
....have to agree...especially given the source.
Trick question. It's all bogus. Or maybe it is like one of those critical thinking tests... which one is MORE fraudulent than the others! ha, ha, ha.
A+
It's like the SAT...there is no wrong answer...just one that is mostly right.
We have entered a whole new paradigm. This time is different.
This time is different...and it isn't my fault.
"a paradigm shift", yes, of course, of course.
Its simple. Wall street dont care about charts. They dont give a fuck about the Euro, Iceland, Unemployment and the price of Gold. All they know is the buy and sell button on their Etrade account, And thats it. Its all about when to buy, When to sell. Its sad and tragic.
Fraud is relative
You mean my Uncle Sa....er Fraud?
Shit or Shinola?
who can tell the difference?
That would certainly explain Einstein's fear of relatives.
"Fraud is relative"
Which is why intent to deceive can be so hard to prove.
I can't tell.
I am not a PHD.
+1,000
Everything below average, except, ugh, the S&P! Yeah, that's it, oh boy, should we sell SPU's or just wait for all others to catch up, wink wink?
Bets on the direction of that last chart by tomorrow afternoon? Anyone? Anyone?
Up 3.5% and underperforms Gold.
The trend is unfortunately your friend...if one believes they have brought it this far, why would they stop now w/ new high nirvana, shambalala on just the other side of S&P 1200'ish?
...unless, they know nobody in the fucking right mind will buy something so propped up by everything unholy and trading volume falling into an abyss. If one was to think of a great time to tank the market, drop valuations back down to promote trading house profits, blame the fall on fears of Republican "austerity" and then slowly ramp back up in front of the next election...then yeah, I could see a scenario where tomorrow is a blood bath.
wtf???
Right. In that case on the way home I'll buy a bottle of Champagne and some more ammo. Either way, I'm ready to go.
....you been reading Ben's mail???? ....is your real name Bill Gross?
What's happening in the Fraud elections is more important. I think.
Who's winning? I hear an Indian-American woman might become the Governor of NC???
The power of media....wow!
That will chart the course for what form the coming tsunami will take.
Drowning in $, swimming free in PM's.
Dem charts, matter not anymore.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
ORI, I believe it is SC, running as a Republican. She is supposed to be very impressive.
Yes, SC. Good ol' boy country. That should be entertaining.
Thanks DoChen, that makes it even more interesting, as Blano says below.
And seeing what Bobby Jindal had to put up with (still is), I hope (if she wins) she has a smoother ride.
Interesting times indeed.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
And our newest contestent on "Are you smarter than a 3rd Grader?" is...........Ben Burnacke!! He joins our resident elf, Timmay Geithner, to see just who is the dumbest, crookedest, SOB in government. It's gonna be a showdown, folks!!
lol
This is now simply not a market. It's not free. It's not capitalism. It's bogus. It' fraudulent. It's a Bernanke scam.
THC earnings out today. They make money the old fashioned way...tax credits.
Not from selling weed?
GM has about $50 billion in tax assets stemming from past losses that it can use to avoid paying U.S. corporate taxes, per WSJ.
^
The pink one?
I'm color blind. Which one is that?
Just point with your snout big guy and no teeth this time. :>)
I think this all due to the "Ground Zero Mosque"
I blame Billy Ray Cyrus. His recent filing for divorce broke America's Heart. It's achy, breaky heart.
LOL
Sounds like your conditioning is nearly complete. Congratulations. Now let's see what you've won.
Oh look, PF has won a life time of indentured servitude. Give him a hand ladies and gentlemen. Now please report to your master.
justin bieber
justin bieber = (a presupposed) satan's spawn.
Why do I have to choose? Could be all, one, or none but the conditions on the ground (my front yard) will not change. I gotta go now and prep my little garden for a winter coming up. Good luck to all you tea leaf readers, belly button gazers, and phrenologists.
My self portrait. You like?
Do you live in the States? Your fear center doesn't seem active enough...
The center of my universe can be found in the "Vanity" section.
That's all one needs, right?
All one needs as a human or as an American?
Based upon what my TV tells me (I always believe what my TV tells me because why would it lie) only Americans are human. Everyone else is either rioting or saving too much money or growing terrorists or mailing bombs to America or not importing our high quality goods or not buying our rock solid government bonds or buying Gold instead of our rock solid government bonds.
Does that answer your question?
"TV God" by Dana Lyons:
http://www.cowswithguns.com/cgi-bin/listen_album_cowpilation.cgi?cart=1288732590
("Cows with Guns" is hilarious and definitely worth a listen too!)
lmao
"Does that answer your question?"
Yes, YES. A THOUSAND times YES!
Duplicate post.
Damn Waddle & Reed. Damn them to hell.
...fear & loathing are far too small for a U.S. citizen....with the exception of GS employees...
...fear & loathing are far too small for a U.S. citizen....with the exception of GS employees...
...tea leaf readers, belly button gazers, and phrenologists.
Belly button gazers???
China must be in the dictionary/thesaurus business!
naval gazer: one who is extraordinarily self-absorbed with him or herself on any given issue; excessive introspection and reflection when action is more necessary. (v) navel gazing. BTW, definitely your best side...Time for our daily exercise:
Up
Sideways
Up
Sideways
Up
Sideways
Up
Sideways
I give honorable mention to 3, M1 and M3 shadow are both trending higher. Is the middle class tapped out? ya think?
M2
Nice to know there are still people in the world that can answer the question asked.
(hat tip)
WADDELL & REED, bitchez
These charts are all frauds and excuses for QE2.
How can those charts be fake? They used a green colored line!!
Green is good!
Red is Bad!
WELCOME TO UTOPIA!!!
Now please step in line for your daily iris scans and your background check.
There is no spoon.
Coventry City have never won the FA cup.
Uh, but the market is a discounting mechanism ...?
This thread is so much fun I thought it was Friday.
Shamwowzalicious.
looks like the one that requires putting one's money where their mouth is, and is the most forward looking with respect to the current reading(green line), appears to be successfully climbing that wall of worry, which is so often a bullish sign
please junk me so i can rest easier at night
Too many suckers already on that side of the trade. Banksters line 'em up and shoot 'em down. Volatility comes like a thief in the night.......
when i say forward looking, i don't necessarily mean fundamentals. there could be dozens of reasons stocks are being bought up. maybe the fed wants to own corporate america, who knows. i just mean it's the only chart that indicates something other than just whatever moment in time the green plot represents.
dollar volatility is the thief i'm gaurding against.
Yes, but the market is forward looking, right?
The last one is the fraud. But the Feds must support the stock market because so many old folks depend on it for their pensions.
And what do you depend on my young grasshopper?
right and wrong, if the pension funds lose money and become underfunded all sorts of hell breaks loose for those currently in the system. but i was surprised to learn that less than 20% of stocks are held by pension funds, and over 50% held by individual investors, hedge funds, etc. knowing those figures consider this, how liquid do you suppose those assets are? if the pension funds are the strong hands, and they only constitute 1/4 of all stock holdings? and in this low volume environment, is this market a bull trap? (rhetorical question)
Paging Johnny Bravo, Paging Johnny Bravo.....
Beautiful. Whats the saying about pictures painting a 1000 words. I think these paint just 3 :
END THE FED
The kind of science that yields measurable, desirable results is generally not faith-based (i.e. designing a TV or microchip or bridge). I say we pick a bunch of people with a proven track record of actually delivering something tangible, that is recognised to be better than that produced by the competition and then we give those guys a chance to run a country and we pay them well.
As that country would be guided by the principles of pragmatism, logic and hopefully fairness it would quickly put other regimes to shame.
Perhaps the guiding principles of this system could be complete transparency of government spending, published on the web down to the last biro, abolition of fractional reserve banking, in fact money creation/destruction would augment taxes when and only when inflation/deflation was off zero percent!
if somebody wants to buy a company under this form of government they'd better accumilate the money doing something productive or get some investors who already have.
No leverage allowed! as we have seen leverage is money creation from nothing, without consent to pay the wages and expenses of bankers, shysters, consultants and politicos off the back of a productive society, privatising the gains and socialising the losses.
...anyhow rant over...
in the immortal words of chambawamba:
Shit. And I passed that math question to get in.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39957072
Bill Gross talks about QE2
I think a top is at hand.
There's a high probability that it is anyway. ;-)
Heh...the most anticipated sell the news event in whenever. RUT has a 2.8% move up from yesterday's low. Nice money if you can keep it.
OMG...Captcha...-26*38. Might as well start including negative fractional powers so I can pull out the slide rule.
Check out this tough guy intimidation at the "I Love Kanjorski" Fest hosted by Bill Clinton. Outright threats and intimidation toward a kid just asking Clinton about Ending the Fed. We all remember Kanjorski and his threats about the Dow going to 2000 if the Fin reg was not passed. This is the root problem of what plagues our nation.
http://www.youtube.com/user/thealexjoneschannel?blend=1&ob=4#p/a/f/2/71q...
How utterly depressing for 2 reasons - that someone would be intimidated like that at an electoral rally (but to be expected at these partisan rallies , theres no freedom of speech when an ex-prez is speaking..)
but that the female reporter didnt have a clue what the Fed Reserve was. A journalist... i dont care if she just deals with road traffic incidents , shes a journalist... im sure hardly anyone at the rally understood who the Fed were either.
When you see videos like this you realize the uphill battle. Educating the dum-dums seems nigh on impossible after such brainwashing.
John,
Yes, that just goes to show the type of stupid, selfish, ignorant slobs we have all across this country. They know NOTHING and will believe ANYTHING if somebody promises them something in return. A disgraceful and disgusting picture of the average intelligence of many Americans.
And how the hell can a journalist not know what the Federal Reserve is? WTF?
.
Agree, John, the root problem and the root head-wind, inversely proportional to the public's own awareness of it.
"economics is all THEORY!!! Every bit of it"
Except for the apodictically true theorems. For example, the law of diminishing returns. It is as true as "1+1=2" is true. It is logically true. It cannot be disproven in the laboratory.
Apart from a priori and empirically true knowledge (such as humans valuing leisure) and tautologies (meaning "restatements"), there are generally two types of economic "theories".
One type of economic theory is akin to Keynes' theories. They are tangles of fallacies and nonsense that can be logically dismantled.
The other type of theory involves childishly playing games with numbers. Such theories are generally worthless, since they only pertain to particular markets with particular people and goods at particular periods in history and in particular geographical regions. Like with climate "science", these theories pertain to unimaginably complex, likely chaotic, dynamic systems. Like with climate "science", these theories generally cannot be verified with the scientific method. Econometrics makes predictions about real world market participants, and unfortunately not about the behavior of people in laboratories.
People,
Just long the S&P with margin, and you'll be fine.
Dollar collapse is eminent.
Dec. 17, 2011 SPY call (210 strike) .o4 and your golden.
For real ....
Where's Harry when you need him ?
Disposable income. I never throw mine in the trash. I recycle it.
Nice charts - if one just focus on year -4 (ie around 2003), you will see the S&P and GDP data were already telling you these data points were artificially high (most proably as suggested by Hussman and Grantham, they did not correct anywhere expected in a normal recession due to Maestro's printing press) even as unemployment, income, housing and money supply were at historically below average levels.
No man, ya'll jes' don git it. We're talking Frodo here and his Precious S&P is levitating by pure, unadulterated magic - not Sarumon's magic, but Ben's ZIRP magic.
Just as Sir James Goldsmith said, we have been brainwashed to believe in these indices alone, and nothing more.
If these indices are moving up, then we have nothing to worry about, that means economic growth and prosperity. Pay no attention to those folks losing their homes, their jobs, and their entire industries. Gone to never come back, but hey, those Indices are all moving up, we must be doing really well!
Alex, I'll take Ponzi fraud for $1,000