This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

PIG+S Update With Portugal And Greece At Record Yields

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Almost a year to the day from the first Greek bailout, we thought we would revisit just how successful Europe has been in masking its pervasive insolvency, and just how far Europe has ultimately gone over the past year. As the chart below shows, pretty far. Especially if one measures the displacement by the shift in the Greek bond curve whose 3 year point just passed 18%. Buy it, hold it for 5.5 years and double your money.

An MC Escher perspective of what yield curves should look like:

And here is who continues to be late to the bailout party (due to being stuck in Beijing for the time being, bribing the local politburo with trinkets, spices and Marbella beachfront property).

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:38 | 1168648 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

when piggs fly...

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:08 | 1168793 Popo
Popo's picture

Dear Germans,

Thanks for working your asses off in freezing Germany, so we can lay around all day and not work  -- in paradise.   It's really nice of you.

Sincerely,

The Greek People

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:23 | 1168852 nkktwotwozero
nkktwotwozero's picture

Something about "Work makes you free"?

--

"You're floor....you're floor is now clean!"

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 13:25 | 1169372 macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

Completely wrong! I guess it's time for the Germans to pay for all the cheap holidays in Greece over the last ten years. You have no idea how much the German economy benefited from Greece, with the stupidly low interest rates and the associated consumption bubble in Greece, mostly imported from Germany! They have already benefited from that for years, and they are not paying anything as long as Greece tries to pay its debt back. They are so shameless that they have suggested Greece to sell its islands to pay it. Welcome to (economic) invasion, 21st century style!! 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 13:39 | 1169434 i.pagnottella
i.pagnottella's picture

this is baloney, in Italy, Portugal and Spain, people do not force their politicians to spend responsably, Italy has loads of debt, people do not care, and they never vote for who wants to runs things well, we tend to vote for the most corrupt and irresponsible politicians. it is a generalizations, but who ever lives here knows that the Greek people, as all people should blame themselves and not others

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:30 | 1169637 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

... Greeks have bought 500 Tanks and the couple of submarines, lot of german milk ( Müller milch ), made to yoghourt in Grece.... etc.

 

When Bonds became junk - bailout ...  ( Hermes- Bürgschaften better than anything else, bailout kinda bonus )....

Increase of the output of german arms export 2006-2011 -

100%

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1168661 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

When PIIGS spreads fly.....

U.S. Consumer stocks fly up even faster!!!..

Especially bra and underwear stocks, VF Corp. now at fresh, new highs...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1168681 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Some of your finest work there, Robot!

Keep it up.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1168692 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

One, you are correct. Two, Robot is a 17 year-old virgin that has never seen a naked girl in his life-don't encourage him.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 13:43 | 1169439 i.pagnottella
i.pagnottella's picture

I was thinking the same thing! 

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:54 | 1168705 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

+1

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:51 | 1168687 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

HOLY MOSES! JAPAN IS THINKING ABOUT MOVING CAPITAL!!!

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/04/itar-tass-japan-mulls-moving-capit...

RADIATION AND MORE SHAKES!!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:00 | 1168733 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

incredable

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1168894 Popo
Popo's picture

I don't get it.  What's the big deal about moving money from Tokyo to Osaka?

Or did they/you mean they were moving the "capitol"?

 

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:55 | 1168720 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

How anyone could flag her as junk is beyond me.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1168752 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

I was thinking the same thing..

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:16 | 1168830 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Not to be disrespectful of her sweetness....

But I'd junk it

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:36 | 1168806 Popo
Popo's picture

Anyone who knows their photo-retouching can't possibly NOT junk that disaster.  That's some pathetically bad photoshop.  Jesus her cheek looks like it was done with the blend tool on MS Paint.

They added the strand of hair on her face because they knew they botched the cheek.   It casts a fake dropshadow.  

And I <3 the fake depth-of-field on her abdomen.  Nice shortcut bro.   I guess they figured no one would see past the silicone boobies.   Speaking of which... gravity seems to be affecting her boobs and her amulet differently.   Damn that liquify filter.

I could go on and on...ignorance is bliss I suppose...  One can only conclude that she looks sort of old and nasty in real life.

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:56 | 1168977 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

She's Robo's mom.  What do you expect?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 13:06 | 1169282 Ransom
Ransom's picture

Come on man, some of us are at work FFS.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:08 | 1169543 QE4EVER
QE4EVER's picture

At this rate, cotton could go to $500 and it'd still be all good for the likes of VFC, TRLG, etc....

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1168662 pendragon
pendragon's picture

amazing as the euro is as high as a kite or maybe that just the muppets buying it.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:53 | 1168710 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

If the ECB buys treasuries, the Fed can buy the PIIGS debt and more... easy

kermit owns most of Portugals debt fwiw (muppets yo)

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1168663 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Must be why folk rushed into the EuroBimbo currency in the las half hour?  I mean...ah...what do I mean?  Maybe when 50% of the Euroland idea is dead and buried...then they'll sell Euros?

Beuller?

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:50 | 1168684 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Apparently everyone assumes someone else will perpetually rush in to backstop their ridiculous paper bets. When the realization sets in theres only 1 rickety termite eaten chair when the music stops, then we'll see blood flowing in the streets.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:56 | 1168717 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Liesman now doing his best "soft shoe" in front of the debt clock saying...."everything is ok."  Good grief...there really should be a credibility suicide clock on the BlowHorn.  The rate at which the personalities there simply throw in the towel on their professional cred...is amazing.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:04 | 1169005 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

What "professional cred"?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1168664 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Buy a 3 year and hold it for 5.5...with restructuring that sounds about right.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:53 | 1168709 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

You beat me to it.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:41 | 1168908 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Buy it, hold it for 5.5 years and double your money.

The only problem with doubling your money in 5.5 years is that the dollar will be 50% of what its worth now which means you've made 0% (before taxes). The IRS will still tax you're 100% profit so YOU LOSE, SUCKER!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:05 | 1169003 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Just buy the S&P- it doubles every two years. And, it has no risk.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:48 | 1168667 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Amazing how long they could 'extend and pretend'.  Kick that can ECB..its got a lead bottom.

Bernank pumps and it ends up as Womens underwear and lingerie items.. a perfectly sound running Economy.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1168691 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

As long as the $75 hand towel, $9 burrito, and $300 spandex leotard stocks are going up, all is obviously well.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1168673 pendragon
pendragon's picture

to the average sovereign investor the us weekly jobless claims going up a few thousand is more important than the fact theyre not getting their principal back. what a broken world this is.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:51 | 1168699 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

they said may you live in interesting times, not may you live in a labrynth of lies that just so happens to be interesting...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:46 | 1168674 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

...and double your money.  In Euros.  Which will have lost 75% of their purchasing power over the next 5.5 years.

Great deal.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1168680 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

This muppet just don't give up. He will rather destroy the whole Europe before admitting the Euro-experiment is a disaster.

04-14 10:39: EU's Rehn says "We do not see Greek debt restructuring as an option"
Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1168703 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Option A sees the end to the European project right now.

Option B gives it a little more time - in the hope that flocks of white swans land all over Europe.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1168686 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

the PIIGS will restructure...

delay, defer, default...

Phucked by mid 2013...

 

 

http://nationaleconomist.blogspot.com/

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1168694 pendragon
pendragon's picture

as you point out what is it exactly that spain can offer china apart from some jerry build deep discount property which they are already limit long of

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1168707 sangell
sangell's picture

Spanish veto in the EU!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1168697 sangell
sangell's picture
04-14 10:39: EU's Rehn says "We do not see Greek debt restructuring as an option" And the alternative is what? Taking hostages? Breaking some legs?
Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1168740 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:57 | 1168718 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Irish central bank cuts GDP outlook. Great. 

http://on.wsj.com/hZkXEu

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1168726 digalert
digalert's picture

NEWSFLASH CNBS Steve Liesman:

"people are making a bigger deal of the budget deficit than it is."

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:08 | 1168990 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

CNBC's Steve Liesman has been on a pork roll these past 2 days. Yesterday he kept butting in on Rick Santelli while he was saying the US budget deficit can't go on. Today the pork belly was standing next to a US debt clock at $14 Trillion and topped Jim Cramers estimate the US Govt had 4-5 years to sort it out (dream on Cramer you f'n crone).

Liesman reckoned the US Govt had much longer than Cramers 4-5 year estimate to deal with the budget issues and (not) having a plan could go on much longer.... what an arrogant tool

I'll give the US Govt 2 years tops before the shit hits the fan and the markets squeeze the US Govts balls until they squeel like a Delverence sequal. When it happens Cramer should be taken off air and Liesman should be turned on a spit and give a few thousand on JPMorgan Food Stamps a decent meal of roasted pork (high in saturated fat given Liesmans endless lunches with useless porky bwankers and economists)

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1168744 digalert
digalert's picture

NEWSFLASH CNBS Steve Liesman:

"people are making a bigger deal of the budget deficit than it is."

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:11 | 1168788 oogs66
oogs66's picture

From the CBO, the annual deficit slowly decreases over the next few years then starts to accelerate.  And they assume 1) that taxes go back up when scheduled rather than see the cuts renewed, and 2) that spending stops when scheduled to stop, rather than being extended.

Both are highly dubious assumptions.  But why does the deficit start to grow again?  Primarily because of the interest burden on accumulated debt!

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:09 | 1168790 Mike Cowan
Mike Cowan's picture

Germany is the powerhouse of Europe. Does Germany back those Greek bonds?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:55 | 1168974 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Let me tell you something about my fellow countrymen. They are pissed and angry about throwing money out of the window. You might think that the ordinary German has a nice living standard - like 1980 or 1990 Germany - but that's over since the introduction of the Euro and the increasing pressure on ordinary people. Working endless hours to get almost nothing in return - just look at the retirement age, Germany is the only country in the OECD that lost almost 5 % on income in the past ten years, most countries had a plus.

I've nothing against Irish, Greek - whatever you name it - people, but we are not here to rescue them, we've got enough own problems in our country. And their governments do not show any fiscal discipline at all - wasn't different before the Euro when they had all these overbloated currencies like the Lira.

And we do not want to send troops to Libya - before 1999 there was a saying in Germany - that we never want to get into war again. How about finishing our missions first? We still have troops in Afghanistan and Kosovo, still doing a lot of missions as part of our alliance (from Congo to Lebanon to Balticum) which is okay - but another war? Gimme a break. We cannot support another war - it is too costly, we've got to pay back our own debt.

This is getting more and more ridiculous... the EU is destroying itself. Even without the Euro - we will recover, we have good products and good engineering.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:10 | 1169041 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Just how angry are people you know? Is this a subject of daily conversation? Thanks

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:37 | 1169150 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

At first, it wasn't a big deal for many people. They were not enthusiastic about bailing out Greece, and many tabloids were showing images of the 'lazy Greek' (which I found offensive). Mood was changing again when Ireland was bailed out - and first protest groups formed. You must know that there is an opposition against the Euro in Germany since its introduction - lead by several economy professors that feared Germany would give up the status the Deutsche Mark had (which also produced problems of its own).

Now they are talking about Portugal and the mood is getting angrier, even ordinary people that are not interested in politics or economy are beginning to ask questions, beginning to be against more bailouts. But what I found very interesting - there are more and more sceptical and critical articles in German newspapers, especially some of those that defended the Euro all the time.

There was big article in the German magazin "Der Spiegel" a few days ago, which basically said that the bailout plan would lead to a break of our national constitution. And more and more people are taking legal action against the bailout plan. More and more intellectuals and cultural figures, like philosophers and writers, are speaking up against the current (undemocratic) EU or the bailout plan.

Yes, it is a subject of daily conversation. And yes, many people I spoke to are very angry about this whole charade. They are not angry against other nation's people - like Greek, Spanish, Irish - they just do not want to be part of this bailout plan.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:54 | 1169226 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Thank you so much for your take on things. The boiling point is near.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:16 | 1169057 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

People who have never lived in Germany and have no German friends (99% of those here) cannot understand how infuriating this whole situation with the PIIGS is to the average German.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:39 | 1169162 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

That trillion you spent on re-unification didn't help either.  And then Germany needed to find jobs for all those ex-communists.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:12 | 1168814 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Two Words:

Gold, bitchez!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:23 | 1168850 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

This is why bailouts don't fucking work-- more worthless debt piled upon more worthless debt is just perpetuating the same false sense of order.  When in actuality there is no order, but more of the same bullshit.  The system needs a reboot and a rework: end central banking, breakup the banking cartel (throw these motherfuckers in jail), try the regulators as well for their failures and collusion in crimes against humanity, reform currency regimes, and anyone involved in the G20 or whatever Gnumber should be removed from office and investigated for their involvement in the biggest worldwide fraud and social class genocide that has taken place.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:58 | 1169239 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

"gnumbers"- that's good.

And don't forget CLAWBACKS- take back the stolen bonuses.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1168895 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

only yesterday, mr tyler durden said 50% + haircut on greek debt.  today, hair on floor.  RT:  spring is in the air!  clothing optional!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 11:59 | 1168986 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

The hair is not on the floor yet, but when the haircuts come, they will wash across the balance sheets of European banks, destabilizing them yet again.  Has anyone got (or can point me to) a rundown on which banks own which and how much sovereign debt?

Plus, I wonder whether the Greek restructuring when it comes will be designed to defeat the use of CDS, or at least render it unclear whether a technical triggering event has occurred. You know the ECB hates CDS with a passion and see it as a way for speculators to drive up the price of debt.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:26 | 1169115 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

tyler, today: " ...Greek bond curve whose 3 year point just passed 18%."

hair on floor.  just trees?  check out forest, dude!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 12:38 | 1169157 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

I was thinking of the "official" restructuring as the haircut, but as you point out, Mr. Market can be a barber, too.  Still, there's plenty more hair to trim. 

Let me know when the YTM implies a 50% wig-snap off the principal within 6 months .... or when Greece starts putting up islands for sale.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!