PIIGS Fly As Greek Rescue By Germany Contemplated

Tyler Durden's picture

Yet another rumor denied vehemently by the Greek Finance Ministry, which automatically means it is 100% true, is that Greece rescue talks are reaching a fever pitch, and according to FT-Deutschland, Germany is seeing increasing pressure to bail out the struggling country. As Dow Jones reports "rescue talks are being held in the EU and with certain capitals about aid for Greece, according to the sources, the report adds. Several options are being discussed, one of which being bilateral loans from some euro zone countries, where Germany would have to shoulder a major part as the euro zone's largest economy."

Other potential options include various direct public and private funding ideas:

Other options are premature payments from the cohesion fund or credit lines from larger development banks like Germany's KfW or France's Caisse des Depots, according to the report.

All this is occurring as PIIG spreads are now firmly wider than BRICs:

As Credit Trader points out:

PIIGS (on average) are nearing their all-time widest levels from Q1 2009. Interestingly, the relationship between developed economies and emerging economies sovereign risk is comprerssing dramatically which we believe is a cyclical issue that will leak contagiously over to the EM sovereigns if pain becomes very sharp in the majors.

Also of note is the fact that Greek govvie bonds are the only ones of the majors to trade wide (relative to Bunds) of CDS (a negative basis) while the rest of the PIIGS all trade tight in CDS to Bond spreads. This basis is compressing (as it should as it is a juicy trade) but it certainly looks like real money is leaving riskier govt bond markets.

Regardless of how a bearish bias is expressed, with GGB 10 year yields surging, and buyers of the recent bond issue already underwater, we question how eager private funds will be to fund yet another Greek bond issuance. Furthermore, should the basis collapse even more, cash spreads will leak even wider, possibly further complicating the technical risk picture, as an onslaught in CDS will force even more short CDS positions to cover.

It appears that Angela Merkel is now stuck between a rock and a very hard place, courtesy of her desire to placate American desires for the past year to keep a strong euro. This decision will likely result in a very destabilizing impact on the eurozone as the ECB gradually realizes the only recourse at this point is to take the Fed head on in the game of currency devaluation. What that means for US stocks is more than clear.


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Shameful's picture

lol this should go ever very well with the German people. Heck I'm sure the rest of the PIIGS are ready to come hat in hand to.

Also I want to see the ECB race the Fed. I have a lot of faith in Zimbabwe Ben to rev the presses to "victory" but as they say misery loves company.

The Patagonian's picture

It doesn't matter what the German people want.  The German people never wanted to adopt the euro in the first place.  It was a very undemocratic process from on high.  There's a lot of nostalgia for the Deutsche Mark.  People were pissed because over here in Germany, you could buy German fast-food, the dönner-kebab, for 1DM.

Then literally over night when the euro was adopted there was an instant de facto inflation when the dönner joints decided to charge 1 euro for a dönner.  The problem was, it was 2 DM for 1 euro in the exchange rate.  So your meal that costed 1 DM yesterday costs 2 DM today under the guise of 1 euro.  There was no currency adjustment, they just substituted the DM sign for the new Euro sign.

That's just one simple example to make a point.  The average Fritz on the street would love to go back to the DM.  The euro elite of course wouldn't let that happen if they can help it.  You talk to average people in the kneipers/pubs and they will long for the days of the DM.  They contradict themselves though when they enjoy the ease of using a single currency when traveling to Majorca in the summer.

Of course that means bailing out the PIIGS.  But it doesn't have anything to do with what the German people want or don't want, unless we can get the trade unions out on the street in protest.

The personal silver lining for me is that my VA disability check in USD will give me an extra euro or two when it hits my Sparkasse account next week.

Maybe I'll celebrate and go out and buy myself a dönner for dinner

Anonymous's picture

shit, now we have to pay 3 euros for a döner.

The Patagonian's picture

+1  And the economists say we have low inflation in Europe!

ozziindaus's picture

Very true. I lived in Stuttgart 10 years ago whilst the DM was on it's way out. Dönners BTW were around 3.50 DM. Now they're 4.50 Euro's and 5.00 Euro's mit Kässe. That's almost 200% price inflation in ten years since salaries were halved in Euro's and have barely bumped.

The Patagonian's picture

That's true, I was using a ratio of one to two for simplicity but I think it outlined the situation well enough.  Right now I'm paying 4 euro for a Lamacun dönner (mit Käse) and 3,50 for a "tasche".  But I live in the east, in Jena.  The cost of living here hasn't yet caught up with the west, although Jena is the exception as it is now the 5th most expensive city in Germany (probably due to my university, Carl Zeiss Optics, Schott Optics, and Jena Pharm) but outside the city the cost of living goes down considerably.

But I want to stress that although I am speaking of only one product as an arbitrary example, this was happening across the board for all everyday products and goods.

Anonymous's picture

Hey I bought a Döner near Intershop Tower for 3€. It was actually pretty cheap.

But I also wan't to mention the Döner cartel in Ilmenau. Which released together a statement that they have to increase Döner prices together(http://tinyurl.com/ya8w8sa). So I am convinced that the döner prices depend on other factors than the economy. Maybe the Bundeskartellamt should take care of these guys..

The Patagonian's picture

Oh, and excellent point about the salaries.  That was the other side of the coin, no pun intended.  They certainly did do a currency adjustment when it came to salaries, they just happened to forget about it when it came to prices.

Like I said, almost every German I speak with about this subject is very sour on the euro, except in those cases when it makes their summer vacation in Majorca easier.

Gunther's picture

 for now you are right. But more and more people are pissed with politics in Germany. From a think tank came an in-depth interview with a sample of the population that pointed to distrust in the political and economical system.
Up to 70% of the population are so fed up with the current system that they question the current version of democracy and economy.
For now nobody gives them a voice but that might change in the future.

To see reports (in German) follow
and look for "Bertelsmann Demokratie-Studie:"

To see some disrespect look at
from an"impersonator" of the current chancelor calling himself Angelo Ferkel; look "Ferkel" up in http://dict.leo.org/
with the "real" meaning in subtitles.
Both Videos are in German.

The Patagonian's picture

I hope so, but I don't have a lot of faith.  I am wondering if a real tectonic change will happen or whether people will simply seeth under their breadth and insist that "alles in ordung muss sein".  You may not like this, but in the interest of honesty, I should note that I am an active member of Die Linke.  I am firmly working against the biggest threat I see to economic stability and that in my opinion is the neo-liberal FDP who wish to bring the Anglo-American economic model to the continent.  And I look to the Anglo-Americans for bringing this financial catastrophe upon us.

I don't disclose that to be contrarian or trollish, just so that you know in any future discussion where I am coming from and my own political/economic beliefs to consider or discard at your own leisure (also why I scoff at people claiming the US President is a socialist, I guarantee you, he's not one of us!).

Doc Brown's picture

Let me ask you a question if you are in Germany does anyone there or in the

press discuss a need to bail out Greece

as the rich EU Uncle? If Greece came to market let's say nary a week ago and raised what was it 8 billion euros. Do you think they spent it all in a week? Now they are hat in hand in Davos saying to anyone with ears please to give me some money? I don't see the logic in that. You are there

anything in the press at all about Greece

and if so what are they saying? German idioms and cuisine are not my forte by the way.


Anonymous's picture

No I dont read anything about this in the german press.
I read this today in SH.

The Patagonian's picture

The German press so far, from what I have read, is pretty stand-offish.  Aside from the occasional editorial.  Simply reporting facts and moving on to the next story.  I do pay attention to eurointelligence.com and Wolfgang Munchaus' blog but they come from the neo-liberal point of view.  I also pay attention to the European Tribune and they come from the Leftist pov.  But so far Der Spiegel and Der Stern seem to be remote from this situation.  They seem to be very distant.

As to your follow-up question, I am studying nothing that has to do with current events.  Once I left the military I decided that I did not want to have anything to do with national security or economics.

I am studying the useless field of medieval literature in Anglo-Saxon, Old Norse, and Old and Middle High German and at the stage of writing my dissertation at the Friedrich Schiller Universität.

Like math wizzes find math equations fascinating I find linguistic connections fascinating, so that is my field though I have an extensive background in Russian and Eastern European Studies (UMich '96 and three semesters '94-'95 at the Moscow Institute for Social and Political Studies) and graduate level, MA, Germanic Languages and Literatures from UVA (in Germany since '04 and teaching at Uni Dortmund for a year).

Part of the reason I joined ZH, because I have no idea how to divide fractions not to mention understanding quants, but I want to learn even though I am incompetent at math.  However I can speak Russian and German with fluency and read dead languages.

So go figure...

Doc Brown's picture

My goodness you must be a busy person. I love a true renaissance man must be the

romantic in me. So impressive your CV.

It's late in Germany you must be a night owl as well, must be all those donner you rave about keeps you going around the clock able to function on 4 hours sleep.

You are in the wrong profession I took you to be an insider, mover shaker within the

German body politic. Why don't you do something in the securities business in your

own country? Adopted countries count as well. I bet you would be good at that. I hate to see a good mind go to waste. Oh excuse me there I go again

typical American always trying to tell someone what to do. Don't you get sick of that attitude? I know I do. Next time I'm in Germany we must do lunch you seem like

an interesting luncheon companion. Maybe then you can give me your take on Greece.

I'll give you ample warning of my arrival even send an e-mail of what I'm thinking so you are prepared to answer my questions. Whats your e-mail address?

For my records to have handy when my agenda requires me to be in Germany you understand.





The Patagonian's picture

No way I could get a job doing what most of you guys do, like I said, my math skills are as poor in the extreme as my language skills a good in the extreme.  Simply not an option for me, sadly my brain just does not function very well with math.  But if you ever come back to Jena, my email is rzg6f at virginia dot edu

Doc Brown's picture

I forgot to ask what do you do in the

humble region of Jena? Perhaps you know

of a client of mine Harald Quandt Fund and I do have many of your banks in my rolodex that does not matter for this discussion.

Anonymous's picture

nice link,one day, all the countries, when the rich
have transfered their money to save havens they are
going bankruft, all at the same time, together.
And we have the DM again, the US the gold dollar,
but with no connection to gold.( only the name)
The states confiscated all the gold, not from the
gold etf s, because there is no gold.
And we start again, sure.
10 month until 3 years.

Anonymous's picture

C'mon guys, you're not trying, ...think, how do we solve this?
1) Have AIG Insure Greek Bonds for AAA rating.
2) Goldman will slice and dice; repackage with bonds from BRIC nations and sell to China or the IMF who will purchase in US "reserve currency" dollars (stronger dollar eh?, then sell to China).
3)GS can then buy CDS in event of bond failure.
4) When sh1t hits the fan, China can nuke the IMF and GS.
5) ...the rest of the world can get on with pursuing happiness, progress and a peacful, enlightened existance.

Anonymous's picture

...hey, it suddenly strikes me that if Goldman repackaged the BRIC bonds with the subprime PIIG bonds, would they re-market them as... (wait fir it)...


(sometimes I crack myself up)

...ill be here the rest of the week, ...try the veal.

Don Smith's picture

"What that means for US stocks is more than clear."

I presume this means a ramp because the Fed will pursue simultaneous dollar devaulation or face a strengthening dollar (bad, in the Fed's opinion).

Or perhaps you're saying that in the short term the dollar will jack, cratering US equities at least until such time as the Fed can respond with a devaluation...

Which of these is the conclusion you imply?

Anonymous's picture

euro is more worse then the dollar.
euro 84cts = 1 USD
Like some years before.

pbmatthews's picture

The dollar is definitely going to get devalued.  President Soetoro said so during his state of confusion speech last night.

If you recall, he announced his government's goal of doubling US exports in 5 years.

What better way to reach such a goal than to devalue the currency (even more).

I feel like I was listening to a speech last night made by an apparatchik from the Central Committee on Economic Planning.

What a joke.

Anonymous's picture

"If you recall, he announced his government's goal of doubling US exports in 5 years"

Is there a good product in US? (GM?, Bombs?)
Maybe you can mix a china and a japan product, then
its made in the US. (apple)
In germany we do it now some years (cars etc.), its
made then in germany)

You can export Ben to somewhere.( greece?)
Sure the US (next generation) will make then a lot of profit.

Anonymous's picture

I dunno... but Down Under we get 3 channels out of 6/7 of free to air late night TV filled will absolutely shit late night 'infomercials' for hours on end... mainly for 'Proactive' - apparently some sort of zit cream... and various ridiculous exercise machines and regimes.

Oh and 80% of the rest of the time we get CSI, Law and Order, Survivor etc etc etc.

So I would say (as a casual observer) that the U.S's main export is mindnumbing television shows and commercials?

Your question of course was, is there a good product... erm... well, maybe if you got lots of pus on your face... well Jennifer Love Hewitt, and the like seem to endorse it???

carbonmutant's picture

Apparently Germany is the only member of the EU that actually has enough money.

That would be an indicator of how much trouble the EU is in.

If it takes this to buy time for Greece WTF are they gonna do about Spain?

Anonymous's picture

Except this is not true.

Finland, Sweden and Denmark are in better shape than Germany. Poland is also doing fine.

Spain has far less public debt (as % of GDP) than Greece.

Doc Brown's picture

I was about to say challenge but you beat me to it. You left out Hungary by the by.

carbonmutant's picture

I don't know what's not true Germany's GDP(PPP) is over 5 times Finland, Sweden and Denmark  combined*. Sounds like Germany has more money. Denmark and Sweden are actually reporting a drop GDP from 2008. That doesn't sound like they're in better shape than Germany.

Spain may have less public debt than Greece. Unfortuantely that hasn't stopped S&P from downgrading their debt rating  and the expected 20 percent unemployment this year indicates that they will need somebody's help going forward.

*From the official Eurostat figures, as of 13 January 2010.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Since goverments have decided to socialise all debt - total public and private debt is what counts and private debt is very large in Spain.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Flying piigs receive economic shock stimulus from German Pig

with strange effects.........


Anonymous's picture

Another welfare pig squeals for help ... When will we learn.

ozziindaus's picture

Outstanding debts and CDS's are in the Quadrillions and defaulting fast. No way any one government or colluding CB's can stop it without Force Majeure. Don't expect too much out of a dollar devaluation.  

caconhma's picture

It is of great interest that the major WWII losers, Germany and Japan, are still cannot get over it. American, British and Soviet propaganda regarding bad germans and honest freedom-loving western allies is just propaganda. Crimes committed by allies were as bad as ones committed by Nazis. Nazi did not invent gas-chambers and extermination camps. Soviets has done it in 1920s well before Hitler came to power. Japanese were "lucky" being nuked, otherwise, Americans were planned to gas them in violation of all international treaties prohibiting chemical weapons. It was calculated that up to 5 millions of Japanese would be slaughtered. What esle is new? We brought freedom and democracy to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...

Following the WWII Japan was sub-servant to America delegating its security and well-being to the USA. May be it was a necessity 50, 40, 30, 20, and even 10 years ago but now Japan finds itself in a very peculiar situation when nuclear N. Korea and China will greatly marginalize Japanese security and economic.

The same is generally true for Germany. Germany "grand" idea of creating EU where it will dominate other EU members and provide Germany some relief from American domination is also in trouble since the majority of EU like to live "high" using Germany  paying their bills.

Well, the world is changing very fast. It is very foolish to expect that communist China and the USA will be able to live in harmony. New alliances will appear and they will surprise everybody. As for the US military superpower status, continuing disintegration of American manufacturing sector will greatly reduce American military capabilities as well.

Anonymous's picture

in 2 years the US tanks are made in china.
Their name is then Wufing 55 tons.
Now, only some spare parts.
Wow, how greed let to collapse the ex big US.

Anonymous's picture

the globalization is a good idea.

The Patagonian's picture

You may want to go back and re-read a little.  The Nazis certainly did come up with the extermination camps as well as gas chambers, which were practically by accident in an incident where they were exterminating rats in a camp with gas and a SS officer then had a brain storm.

The Soviet labor camps were just that, labor camps, which often resulted in death.  Solzhenitsyn documents this very well: Stalin needed to industrialize in the space of a decade, he declared engineers as "wreckers" and enemies of the state.  Thereby arresting a whole cohort of educated workers to work as slave labor because the state could not afford to actually hire them.

Two totally different dynamics and motivations although the end result was often the same.

nonclaim's picture

[off-topic] True, the soviets had extermination camps disguised as "labor camps". Although the total death count was much larger than the nazis' it was not comparable to the German industrial efficiency. The former died mostly passively of hunger and cold, while the later were being actively killed. Both incurred in war crimes but only one was condemned...

caconhma's picture

"The Soviet labor camps were just that, labor camps, which often resulted in death."  It is obviously came from old Soviet sources...

Unfortunately, either The Patagonian does not know what he is talking about or he is just one of many socialists all around the world who knew about and supported "Soviet Murder Inc."

There were many different Soviet concentration camps. Most camps were, as Stalin liked to say, to "liquidate enemies". Consequently, very few prisoners survived.  The camps conditions were so "good" that cannibalism was widely spread. 

One more interesting statistics: 13 out of 15 major Soviet concentration/extermination camps had Jewish commandants. No surprise that, following German invasion into the Soviet Union,  the Soviet Army was not too hot to fight Germans defending vampire Stalin and his Jewish commissars. Unfortunately for Nazi, who treated local population very badly, Stalin was capable of changing the war objectives from defending the Soviet State into a war for "the Mother Russia."

The Patagonian mentioned Soviet scientists and engineers who were imprisoned and worked in special, closed to outside world design organizations. These people could not move freely around but they lived in excellent (accordingly to Soviet standards) conditions: very good food, good medical care, good working conditions, good living quaters.  Some of them, like the famous aviation designer Tupolev, even had regular working meetings in Kremlin with Stalin himself. Consequently, almost all of the survived.  

Mobil gas-slaughter houses were widely used by Soviets in 1920s. This was a decade before Stalin became an undisputed dictator. There was even a Russian name for it: "Dushegubka". It is difficult to translate but the meaning is "human sole extermination machine".

100s thousands were gassed to death. But gassing did meet Bolsheviks needs. They needed to slaughter millions and millions. Just between 1929 and 1932, between 8 and 15 millions of Ukrainians were deliberately starved to death. There is even a memorial in Washington, DC devoted to this event. Ukrainians call it "Golodomor" or Soviet Genocide by deliberate starvation. And this took place just in Ukraine (in one of the 16 Soviet Republics).

As for Europe Western liberators, they were real messengers of freedom: looting, rape, prisoners torture, etc., were widely spread. Up to 3 millions of German POW died/killed in Western Allied custody in the 2 years following the German capitulation. 


Well, the Western mass media does not like to mention the truth. Lies are what we are used to!



Anonymous's picture

I smell Ukrainian nationalist. Anyway, while there was definitely a famine in 1932-33 in Ukraine, it was not limited to Ukraine.

Further, the worst-hit areas of Ukraine were some of the most Russianized.

And no, the Soviet labor camps were not extermination camps, not that dying a slow death from cold or starvation is so much more comforting.

The idea that German POWs were murdered en masse has long been debunked.

The Patagonian's picture

Oh boy, where to start.  Let's see, the old 'soviet' sources happened to be dissidents who were finally allowed to teach after '89 and '93.  I place more credibility on them than a post on the internet.  It's also hard to see Solzhenytsin as a soviet propagandist, a Russian nationalist yes, but soviet apologist, hardly.

The antisemitism reeks in this post.  Most of the Bolsheviks were indeed Jewish, but Stalin had purged them into the camps or simply murdered them by 1929.  You have an odd sense of excellent living conditions if you think Ekibastuz in Kazachstan was the epitome of soviet living.

The soviets gassed people? C'mon, you have to do better than that. 


?????????: ??????????, ? ??????? ???????-?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ????? ???????? ?? ????? (I guess ZH substitutes question marks for cyrillic)

The Russian name for it: "Dushegubka" was for the German gas trucks

Yes, I am in fact a democratic socialist, I'll take hits here for that if need be.  But I am also a veteran of many Foreign Internal Defense deployments to Latin America and the Panama Invasion so I don't take lightly being accused as an apologist for 'Murder, Inc.'

Stalin and the USSR do, indeed, deserve a lot of scorn, condemnation and criticism.  But there are enough established facts available for that without making other ones up.  Like the poster below, I too smell a Ukrainian nationalist verging on the edge of facism





Anonymous's picture

This is sooo american indoctrinated and naive.

USA brought freedom and democracy to Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam... hmm.
There is civil war in Iraq and Afghanistan and chaos in both countries. Vietnam hasn't really prospered since US army left the country... the country was totally destroyed after americas war.

Germany didn't create EU. It was 6 nations that started to work together after WW2. The original idea was generated from a frenchman.

Anonymous's picture


Doc Brown's picture

Fun fact check Vietnam...Who started it?

Gold...Bitches's picture

USA brought freedom and democracy to Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam... hmm.
There is civil war in Iraq and Afghanistan and chaos in both countries. Vietnam hasn't really prospered since US army left the country... the country was totally destroyed after americas war.

Aint freedom grand?

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

With all due respect caconhma this is a very flawed analysis of the German postion within Europe - it is a mercantile state that subsidizes its exports to other member states ,other states then buy these high value products(BMWs etc) and build German savings - Germany would not have savings without other countries buying its products.

It is in a much more vulnerable postion then lets say France(which has a more self sufficient economy) as once other European countries reduce their consumption its savings will fall

pak's picture

They should let Greece default ASAP and put an end to this soap opera. Everyone will be amazed how small the fallout will be from this decision. The 'bailout' story is not without an agenda, it seems.

Anonymous's picture

.. and all those greek shipping companies sell up in a firesale. To .. china? that would be a [ hollow- | gallows- ]laugh .. ;)

chubynata's picture

they bail out Greece and they will send the wrong message to Spain and Ireland.  No way it will happen.  I agree, best they can do is let Greece default, clean the mess after.

Anonymous's picture

why, a strong dollar is good for germany.
The dep, ok, they never can it pay back, not now, not
if its more. Who cares.
I have read, when they dont get new dep its about
3.300 years to pay it.
How much years in the US?