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PIMCO Compares Greece To Titanic, Says Bonds Not Attractive Even Over 7%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In an interview with Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Richard Clarida of PIMCO has pretty much sealed the fate of Greece: "I don’t think that [7%] would be an attractive enough yield. Greece is sort of like the Titanic. Eighteen things went wrong, and when they go wrong at once it’s problematic." Of course, with this kind of rhetoric the 10 Year will be trading at 8% tomorrow, followed up by Clarida saying not even 9% would be attractive, and so forth. When you have the world's largest bond fund say it is not touching Greece with a ten foot pole essentially no matter what the yield, you get an idea of why Greek 1 Year CDS is trading 600/700. In the meantime, stocks continue to be blissfully unaware of what the surge in the dollar will mean to Obama's export-led US manufacturing utopia. Oh well, at least we can continue to export "advanced" Wall Street services to Greece (and most other European peripheral countries) post default, courtesy of every domestic restructuring firm which is currently brushing up the "sovereign reorganization" tombstone pages in its pitchbooks.

From Bloomberg:

The nation needs to borrow a total of 32 billion euros this
year, Petros Christodoulou, director general of the Public Debt
Management Agency, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on
March 31. He declined to say how big the dollar issue might be.

“We’re talking now about what the market sees as a
solvency issue,” Clarida said.

Greece is struggling to cut its budget deficit, the largest
in Europe, from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product,
prompting investors to dump Greek assets.

Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told ANT1
television that Greece doesn’t need additional austerity
measures after the European Union and the International Monetary
Fund agreed to terms for an emergency support package.

‘Not a Lot’

“The size of the packages being discussed now, though big
by IMF standards, may not be enough for Greek refinancing
needs,” Clarida said. “Compared to the amount of debt Greece
has to roll over, it’s not a lot of money.”

It may not be a lot, but it is coming, and it is coming at insane rates: as a reminder Greece has to roll a few billion in 6 and 12 month Bills next week. With both 6 and 12 month spreads at ridiculous levels, last trading at 6.9% and 7.2%, respectively, we have a feeling the Greek situation could be resolved as soon as next week. It is simply impossible for a country to exist if it has to fund near-term maturities in the 7% range. Furthermore, if most US accounts do what PIMCO does and say "no mas" it is indeed over.

 

 

 

 


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Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

If Greece is like the Titanic, I would not want to surmise what the USA is.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:30 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

The iceberg?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

take your pick...International Registry of Sunken Ships

GREATEST MARITIME DISASTERS

 

For a single vessel, either naval or civilian, excluding dockside or rescue personnel.
List of 20 or so drawn from database, I am quite sure further research will change the order a little.

 

Name Date Lives Lost Notes Wilhelm Gustloff Jan 30th 1945 5,900 to
7,000
German steamer of 25,484 tons. Torpedoed by Russian submarine S-13 about 28 n/miles NNE of Leba, Baltic. It is estimated that this number of persons may have been on board the vessel during the evacuation of German troops and personnel from Baltic ports Goya Apr 16th 1945 6,200 German steamer of 5,230 tons. Torpedoed by Russian submarine L-3 off Rixhoft, Baltic. It is estimated that this number of persons may have been on board the vessel during the evacuation of German troops and personnel from Baltic ports Junyo Maru Sept 18th 1944 5,620 Japanese steamer 5,065 tons. Torpedoed by British submarine HMS Tradewind off coast of Sumatra. Vessel carrying 2,300 Dutch, British, American and Australian POW's and 4,200 Javanese slave laborers for work on a railway in Sumatra. Toyama Maru June 29th 1944 5,400 Japanese steamer 6,000 tons. Torpedoed by American submarine USS Sturgeon. Bound for Okinawa. Vessel carrying 6,000 plus members of the Japanese 44th Independent Mixed Brigade. About 600 survivors rescued by escorts Cap Arcona May 3rd 1945 5,000 to
7,000
German steamer of 27,561 tons. Attacked and sunk by British aircraft at Neustadt Bay, Baltic. Included in the number are 2,300 forced embarkees from the concentration camps Lancastria June 17th 1940 3,000 to 4,500 British Troopship 16,243 tons. Sunk by German air attack off St Nazaire while engaged in troop evacuation. Site is a designated war grave. Some lists show up to 9,000 on board with up to 7,000 killed. Official British report on loss will not be released until the year 2040. So who or what was on board to warrant a 100 year closed file.....(Anyone feel like giving me a call) Dona Paz Dec 20th 1987 4,341 Philippine passenger ferry. Foundered in collision with tanker Vector about 110 miles South of Manila Kiangya Dec 3rd 1948 2,750 to
3,920
Chinese steamer 2,100 tons. Struck a mine off Woosung, China while fleeing the Red Chinese Provence 11 Feb 26th 1916 3,100 French auxil' Cruiser 13,753 tons. Torpedoed by U-35 West of Kithira Island, Greece. Thielbek May 3rd 1945 2,800 German steamer of 2,815 tons. Burned and sunk after British air attack at Lubeck Bay. Passengers included inmates from Neuengamme Concentration Camp. There were no survivors General von Steuben Feb 10th 1945 2,700 German steamer 14,666 tons. Torpedoed by a Russian submarine S-13 off Stolpe Bank, Baltic. It is estimated that this number of persons may have been on board the vessel during the evacuation of German troops and personel from Baltic ports Yamato Apr 7th 1945 2,500 Japanese battleship 64,000 tons. Sunk by US air attack between Japan and Okinawa at N:30.43.17. E:128.04. Neptunia Sept 18th 1941 2,500 Italian transport 19,475 tons. Torpedoed by British submarine HMS Upholder about 58 miles off Tripoli carrying Italian military Oceania Sept 18th 1941 2,500 Italian transport 19,507 tons. Torpedoed by British submarine HMS Upholder near Tripoli carrying Italian military Bismarck May 27th 1941 2,108+ 49,136 tons. 820ft x 118 x 28. C/O Lindemann. Damaged by King George V and Rodney about 600 miles west of Brest at a depth of 4,790 meters (15,700 feet). Coupe de Grace from HMS Dorsetshire (Cruiser) Has been located in 4,700m of water. Out of her total complement of 2221 men, there were 115 survivors. Later German U-Boat U-74 rescued three more sailors. The next day, the German weather ship SACHSENWALD rescued two more. Sinfra Oct 19th 1943 2,098 French steamer 4,470 tons. In German hands, sunk by aircraft attack North of Crete. Vessel carrying 2,664 prisoners on board, mostly Italian. Ural Maru Sept 27th 1944 2,000 Japanese transport 6,374 tons. Torpedoed by USS Flasher about 150 miles West of Masinlik, Philippine Islands at N:15.40. E:117.18. Had been carrying 2,340 persons on board. Awa Maru April 1st 1945 2,000+ Japanese hospital ship, 11,249 tons. Torpedoed by USS Queenfish SS-393 about 14 miles off the Chinese Mainland at N:24.40. E:119.45. Had been carrying several wounded soldiers, and 2,000 Japanese officials, diplomats, technicians, and civilians. Scharnhorst Dec 26th 1943 1,964 German battleship 38,092 tons. Sunk by British naval action off North Cape of Norway Rigel Nov 27th 1944 1,833 Norwegian transport 3,828 tons. Sunk by aircraft from HMS Implacable North of Namsos while Southbound from Norway to Germany. Crew and 2,248 Russian prisoners were on board. Vessel was in German hands Donizetti Sept 23rd 1943 1,800 Italian transport, 2,428 tons. 294ft x 40.2ft. Built in 1928 by Cant' Nav' Triestino. Owned by "Tirrenia" Soc Anon di Nav. Under German control - had picked up 1,800 passengers and troops at Rhodes and bound for Piraeus under escort of German frigate TAIO. Sunk by HMS ECLIPSE South of the Island of Rhodes. Lives lost 1,800. Arisan Maru Oct 24th 1944 1,777 Japanese steamer 6,886 tons. Torpedoed by American submarine USS Snook in the South China Sea. Carrying 1,786 US prisoners from Manila to Japan. Taiho June 19th 1944 1,650 Japanese aircraft carrier 29,300 tons. Torpedoed at N:12.22 E:137.04. West of Guam by USS Albacore SS-218. Burned and foundered 6 hours later Laconia Sept 12th 1942 1,649 British transport 19,695 tons. Torpedoed by U-156 at S:04.52. W:11.26. without realizing vessel was carrying 1,800 Italian prisoner of war. Assistance in rescue operation by U-156, 506 and 507. During these operations an American aircraft from the Ascension Islands depth charged the U-boats and the rescued causing the U-boats to submerge and protect themselves. *Salem Express* (Red Sea) It is said that the sinking of this vessel incurred the greatest loss of life this century. As far a I can ascertain it is estimated that there were about 1,600 persons on board and about 180 lives were saved.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yes, I agree that using bold face on 99% of the quote, with the last two sentences not using bold, most definitely focused my attention on the important details of your post.

Thank you for showing the way.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

hey, at least he picked an appropriate user name

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

hahahahahhahah

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Sorry fellas, the cut and paste piece was picture perfect. Not the first post gone wrong, unfortunately.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dear sir,

The key is to cut, paste and EDIT.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Got it, thanks.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

The USA is the Hidenberg, flying over the frozen waters of the North Atlantic.  From fire to ice in a matter of seconds.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

Shhhh! Don't tell anyone. Keep the dream alive until I get my hands on more PM and canned food. :)

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Peterpaul
Peterpaul's picture

Don't forget the Berkey water filter...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:29 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Atlantis.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

That inverted yield curve is a killer.  Given all the events over the past few days, if I'm a Greek citizen, I'm pulling my euros out of the bank yesterday.

Perhaps the exiled president Kraplachistan could come in and provide assistance.... you know, like how to effectively evade your lynch mob populace.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:18 | Link to Comment ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Obviously, Greek banks need to borrow long to lend short.

 

Do I have to think of everything?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

I thought Prodi said that the Greece problem has been sorted out?

 

I'm starting to get this feeling that politicians and bankers don't tell the truth, this could bring my world crashing down around me. Whatever shall I do??

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Tethys
Tethys's picture

Take two blue pills and call me in the morning.

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I do not like greece eggs and scam sam I am.

 

LULZ

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"PIMCO Compares Greece To Titanic, Says Bonds Not Attractive Even Over 7%"

Let's see if I can come up with an appropriately phrased response to this insightful and informative comment from PIMPCO. Oh wait, I've got it.

NO SHIT SHERLOCK!

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Alexandra Hamilton
Alexandra Hamilton's picture

So, finally the leeches are coming out of their holes and let us know what they really want: The destruction of Greece.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Alexandra Hamilton
Alexandra Hamilton's picture

I don't know why everyone is obsessed with the Titanic, really.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1263922/Titanic-sailor-rescued-C...

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment doublethink
doublethink's picture

 

Simulation Video

 

A visual reminder of the Titanic's final minutes (as if we really needed it).

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8ey_RBdxYM

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Obama's manufacturing utopia will evidently consist of high speed rail links made in China:  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/business/global/08rail.html

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

"the Greek situation will be resolved next week."  You mean "someone will do something."  I mean this is the problem is it not?  As soon as you "do something" the "situation is made worse"?  Or is the worse thing "doing nothing"?  I mean, "no nation can survive at 6% on the overnight."  Really?  The "people" will implode?  I see the exact opposite:  the people "explode."  Why is this a problem, then?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:25 | Link to Comment bogey4
bogey4's picture

"...the surge in the dollar will mean to Obama's export-led US manufacturing utopia."

 

Come on Tyler, a little better analysis is required before you blithely throw out a statement like this.  The dollar has bounced approx. 14% off its dead lows (DXY Index basis.)  It's still down about 40% from it's highs 8 years ago, so it's still relatively "cheap" on a historical basis.  We've been in a multi year bear market. A slight bounce isn't going to have much impact on exports.

 

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

PIMPco is buying the shit of Greek bonds, and will make a killing off of them when spreads narrow. I can't believe you trust these guys.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:47 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

Notwithstanding Pimco's profiteering and backroom influence e.g. the Fannie Freddie bailout, they have actually been quite "transparent" in both what they are doing and why they are doing it. El Erian told people a year ago to stay close to names that are close to the government and he was spot on.

 

An example of how Pimco has mislead or deceived would be of value. Do you have one? I

I have looked and cannot come up with even one example where they have talked their book to the detrement of their readers. Not to say they have made mistakes but there is no pattern of deception that I can see.

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Captain Obviousness
Captain Obviousness's picture

Why, and when, do you expect Greek bond spreads to narrow?  The only way I can see the spreads narrowing is if the EU actually bails Greece out.  No way in hell they will be able to get their fiscal house in order by themselves.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

1) EU has already bailed out Greece and it will cement the deal soon.

2) Greece is taking measures to bring their fiscal house in order. Taxes are on the rise, including property taxes, which were non-existent before.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Romanian term limits.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

That was a great interview

he was also channeling El Erian's FT article from earlier today

 

 

Why the Greek rescue isn’t going to plan

By Mohamed El-Erian

Published: April 7 2010 15:53 | Last updated: April 7 2010 15:53

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2709314-4252-11df-9ac4-00144feabdc0.html

 

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:06 | Link to Comment Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

Still buying front-month SPY $120 calls with wreckless abandon...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:20 | Link to Comment yabs
yabs's picture

I don't think the Titanic is an appropriate analogy. She didn't take other boats down with her

I think shes more like the RMS Lusitania

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:32 | Link to Comment hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I think the sum of all things happening equals "episode 1"

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 13:53 | Link to Comment ignorant
ignorant's picture

PIMP & co  or  PIM & co  is the name?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:03 | Link to Comment sheeple
sheeple's picture

The yield curve seriously look like someone bending over ready to be A$$f$$$ all over

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 16:58 | Link to Comment MacedonianGlory
MacedonianGlory's picture

Greek Minister of Finance G-Pap already used the word "Titanic" to describe the greek economic vessel a few months ago. 

The same rhetoric is beeing used again.

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 18:05 | Link to Comment wmefford
wmefford's picture

 I am just waiting for another save the day announcement, again.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!