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PIMCO's El-Erian Dissects Greece: "A Shift From Interest Rate Exposure To Credit Exposure"

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Fri, 01/29/2010 - 17:54 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

So what is his outlook for NY, FL, CA, IL, NJ and what is the new normal on the risk free rate?

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Hey Tyler,

 

Little off topic but it's good stuff about Zero Hedge:

http://blog.ctnews.com/teribuhl/2010/01/28/breaking-news-morgan-stanley-...

ABout the writer: "She resides in lower Fairfield County and earned an accounting/business degree from the University of Southern California. She believes in free markets — but don’t let her catch you abusing them or you’ll end up in one of her stories."

Bwahahahahahaha


Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/30/2010 - 01:45 | Link to Comment MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

Tyler, there is an exception under copyright law for comment or criticism. You can quote or reprint relevant parts of documents, but you must comment upon their logic and reasoning.

Plagiarism is a non-starter from a legal perspective, but the biggies will argue that by posting copies of their documents in full, you are using their intellectual property to gather eyeballs and advertising revenue for yourself, and that is a problem.

Remember comment and criticism, and only copy the portions that are relevant to your own work.

I would argue that research pieces are "advertising," and therefore should be considered to be in the public domain, since broad distribution - with attribution - by third parties gives value to the publisher of the "ad." It is an agressive argument from a legal perspective, but neither Morgan Stanley or Pimco ever gives away anything of real value in its public pronouncements, as they always have acted upon their views prior to publication. But if they are specifically pricing and selling the research, then the "public domain" argument is probably a loser.

Sat, 01/30/2010 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:10 | Link to Comment xamax
xamax's picture

Surely an interesting piece from well respected El-Erian of Pimco BUT:

No matter which view you have on Greece: IT WILL BE BAILOUTED by the European Union and in a few days, nobody will speak anymore about Greece. They did the same with Dubai, they will do the same in the US with CA and all the other states. The debt bubble is growing a bit more and I hope I will be dead or on a desert island the day it will burst.   

 

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:23 | Link to Comment greg merrill
greg merrill's picture

When there is a bailout, the markets will breath a deep sigh of relief, rebound higher, and I can unload some more long positions and create some short positions that got away from me this month.

Should I send the chocolates and roses of thanks to the Greeks or the Germans? 

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:43 | Link to Comment xamax
xamax's picture

you certainly adress an interesting point: one can even make bucks on this bailout on the back of.........the taxpayer !

Send your chocolates to Trichet or even Benron as he certainly has his fingers in the matter. BTW, I dont know why anybody sees Germany as the strong piece of Europe. They are as weak as France (where public debt also explodes) or the other PIGS of this fantastic construction called European Union.           

 

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

End of game chant, "Its all over!" comes to mind.

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 19:38 | Link to Comment seventree
seventree's picture

"socio-political problems" ... how delicately phrased ... does that mean mobs in the streets and colonels in charge?

In any case who the HELL is buying these bonds? Even under the most benign scenario I can't imagine this paper being worth much in the end.

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 21:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 22:43 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

Looks like we all know the first nation to be part of the New World Governmental Order... who in the EU is next?

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/30/2010 - 04:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/30/2010 - 22:50 | Link to Comment bc0203
bc0203's picture

To someone considering investing in sovereign/government debt, particularly Greek debt, their recommendations seem pretty straighforward:

  1. This is not yet the time to be buying Greek debt - wait till they are against the wall and better terms can be negotiated (i.e. after a default).
  2. Start looking for pattterns that can be applied to other types of government debt - this is not going to be an isolated event.

What they're basically saying is, "proceed with caution - there isn't enough information to make a good investment decision."

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