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Pimco's El-Erian Sees "Japan Economy Recovering, Temporary Rebound In Inflation"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The damage control comes earlier. In an Op-Ed just posted at the FT, Pimco executive Mohamed El-Erian has presented his thoughts on why the Japanese devastation, while disrputive, will eventually lead to another GDP surge: "Japan’s economic growth rate will fall in the immediate aftermath of the natural disasters before rising sharply due to reconstruction activities." Yet even by Pimco standards it is not all good news and the immediate effect will likely be a jump in inflation per the former Harvdardite: "Disruptions to supply chains and the loss of inventories will cause shortages and inflation to spike temporarily from very low levels. The fiscal deficit and public debt will rise meaningfully due to lost revenues and, more importantly, emergency spending. The central bank will ease monetary policy which, given policy interest rates floored at the zero bound, will involve the provision of extraordinary credit and liquidity facilities. Last, the country will receive transfers from abroad, including the repatriation of funds held outside the country by Japanese residents." What however received no mention is Pimco's lamentation that the firm will no longer be able to frontrun Japanese buying of Spanish (and Eurozone in general) bonds: a plan that is certainly put on indefinite hold.

More from the FT:

Japan is a rich country that is also able to borrow at relatively low interest rates. As such, it definitely has the ability to rebound economically from these horrible natural disasters. Moreover, in a really good recovery scenario, Friday’s dreadful shock could even be a catalyst for internal political unity and for overcoming what has been two disappointing decades of economic performance. Indeed, a prolonged period of high and sustained growth is key to Japan’s handling of its domestic public dynamics.

The world has a shared interest in the economic recovery of this systemically important country. The good health of Japan is central to a robust global economy that generates lots of jobs and enhances productivity. And, at the most basic human level, we wish for the well-being of all those in Japan who have been affected by a truly horrible tragedy.

The hope culminates as follows:

May the heartbreaking human tragedies soon give way to many stories of miraculous rescues and the full recovery of a society that, today, is being subjected to enormous pain and disrupting uncertainties.

We hope in this case El-Erian is correct. In the meantime, the question of where the yet more demand for sovereign debt will come from as Japan is now forced to issue billions more in paper will certainly be answered in Bill Gross' next, and certainly far more dour,  upcoming missive.

 

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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:52 | 1049952 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

El-Erian is an exposed rod.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:02 | 1049991 CPL
CPL's picture

Yup...

 

Considering their bread basket just got washed over by a slurry of whatever stuff cities produce and Tokyo is now glowing.  I'm not sure how anyone can come out and say "Things are GREAT folks, move along."

 

It should be a law that if someone is announcing that the situation is normal and nothing is wrong, that they stand right next to the object that is "fine".  In El-Erian's case, right next to the nuke plant.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:10 | 1050018 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

""It should be a law that if someone is announcing that the situation is normal and nothing is wrong, that they stand right next to the object that is "fine".  In El-Erian's case, right next to the nuke plant.""


Radioactive Releases in Japan Could Last Months...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:12 | 1050022 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

El-Erian must have junked me.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1050090 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

+1. Good point. Too many trolls and plants using the junk button..

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1050121 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Wonder if he has this on his desktop .....

 

• Live Feed - Geiger Counter Tokyo •

 

 www.ustream.tv

 

Also, this one is located in Japan but no location given .....

 www.ustream.tv

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1050139 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

I can't recall a single topic upon which Mohamed El-Erian has expressed an opinion that turned out as he expected.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1050151 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

He's selling his book again ....

 

Sorry, 1st link is Koto City and the 2nd link is in Ota City.


 

How to read a geiger counter.

 

www.ehow.com

 

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:12 | 1050024 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

A comment from a friend in Japan - the Western region of Japan has plenty of spare electricity BUT cannot supply the eastern region because of frequency differences and network incompatibility. Also, lots of food, water shortages in Tokyo stores since lots of food comes from Northern region as well as via the key ports on the NE side.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:22 | 1050225 fuu
fuu's picture

That and the loss of every power line east of the foothills.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:30 | 1050083 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

+14 Trillion! I have lost all respect for Mo. I also predict that in 200 years, the Japanese economy will recover also. Now pay me $300 million and I'll look all pretty for the camera!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 13:53 | 1051049 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Get with the script people:

Earthquakes - bullish (over 400 off the coast of Japan last 7 days and don't look at a map of earthquake activity in Cali last week)

Tsunami - bullish

Nuclear disaster - super bullish

 

Pole shift - ultra uber bullish

 

BTFD

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:51 | 1049953 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

No doubt, "Sugar High" El-Erian will be forced to "put his cash to work" by buying stocks, if he doesn't think bonds are going up.

I noticed that the PIIGS banks are on fire today, BBVA up over 4%, STD up 3%, etc.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:13 | 1050023 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Retail stocks will rally big tomorrow, PM's will get capped once again
RobotTrader - Sun, Mar 13, 2011 - 11:52 PM

Same old, same old....

What else is new??

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:33 | 1050095 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

If PIMCO is looking to invest cash why not wait until equities really correct? What is the hurry?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:52 | 1049957 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

<THIS IS BREAKING NEWS: MOHAMED EL-ERIAN JUST SHAT A UNICORN ADORNED IN SKITTLES>...<THIS IS BREAKING NEWS: MOHAMED EL-ERIAN JUST SHAT A UNICORN ADORNED IN SKITTLES>....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1050110 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i think Mo Mo el, has a lisp. not that i would demean anyone with having a lisp, he probably has to over come far greater obstacles in his career. well, like listen to gross and his weird tongue of talk.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:30 | 1050259 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

The two most irritating, grating, creaks-like-a-rusty-doorhinge voices possessed by males of the human species: Laszlo Birinyi, and Bill Gross. 

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:52 | 1049958 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

natural disasters are better than war...who would have thought..

if the Japan event was HAARP then expect something similar in California too...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:55 | 1049963 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

God is helping a hand!

 

now about that Yellowstone park thingy...

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:10 | 1050013 CPL
CPL's picture

The Yellowstone Caldera.  If it went up in smoke, most of North America would have around five minutes to shotgun a beer, bend over and kiss their own ass goodbye.  Appearently it's overdue for a big blow and is one of the reasons we've figured out that volcanoes tend to set each other off like a string of firecrackers.  Appearently teh Yellowstone Caldera has blown three times that is known in 2.1 million years according to this article.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1363850/Theres-thing-dorm...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:03 | 1052497 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

I can only imagine how high the futures would get juiced in those 5 minutes.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:33 | 1050096 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Who knew? Doom is great for the markets!

 

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/03/breaking-news-tokyo-geiger-counter...

 

I hope they're ready once Fukushima blows! Good bye Tokyo... Radiation levels from a counter can be seen rising...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1050111 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Great link -

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:55 | 1050147 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I know. It has become a daily read along with Zh of course!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:57 | 1049960 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They'll print more money to make the inflation go away.

 

AND GOD SAID: KILL'M ALL AND LET THE STOCKMARKETS GO UP!!

And Saint-Bernanke did what was asked of him.

AND GOD SAID: SACRIFICE YOUR CITIZENS TO THE BANKERS!!!

And Obama did what was asked of him.

 

And in return for all the hard work they did, they got to spend the rest of their lives in the Caymans without a care in the world!

 

 

let's just hope that the evil speculators won't spoil it and cause inflation anyway.... AL QAIDA DID IT!!

OR BUSH!

OR KADAFI!

...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:54 | 1049961 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Yep, just as I predicted.

Market selling off, yet XRT and IYR are once again "unfazed"....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:58 | 1049968 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Anything market related has The Bernank's greasy fingerprints all over it.

Anon will get The Bernank's archived emails and electronic correspondence, and fun will ensue.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:18 | 1050208 reading
reading's picture

That seems to be going about as well as your gas prices in California are going no where but down theory.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:57 | 1049966 joemayo
joemayo's picture

Just imagine if the entire world were devastated by disasters!  The GDP increase due to rebuilding efforts funded by new liquidity would be enormous, foerever and ever, eh Ben? 

Verily, this is the path to full employment and everlasting boom.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:58 | 1049971 centerline
centerline's picture

George Orwell would be proud.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:13 | 1050028 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

new liquidity = irradiated salt water and steam

everlasting boom = Ka-boom

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:06 | 1050173 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Literally some dumbass was on Good Morning America this morning stating exactly this...  the disaster is good for Japan's economy because they will have to rebuild with newer technology...  I guess this means I should go bulldoze her house?  Seeing as how I am into helping and all...  and the worst part, her comments went uncontested...  none of the other anchors even raised an eyebrow...  really folks?  Is it that hard to just at least cough bullshit or say it under your breath?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:08 | 1050182 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

They read teleprompters for a living, dude.

Why would you assume they know better?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:09 | 1050484 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I don't assume they could find their way out of a paper bag, but others are not so skeptical...  unfortunately...  [I thought that was what santa claus was all about?]

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:53 | 1050726 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

"Just imagine if the entire world were devastated by disasters!  The GDP increase due to rebuilding efforts funded by new liquidity would be enormous, foerever and ever, eh Ben? 

Verily, this is the path to full employment and everlasting boom."

Yeah! Let's all cancel our insurance, burn down our houses and get rich rebuilding them!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:57 | 1049967 centerline
centerline's picture

Sooooo.... let me get this straight....  destruction = demand for debt = good news for Pimco.

Hmmm.... El-Erian is either smoking some good stuff or is helping show how truly screwed we are (or both).

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:59 | 1049975 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

JUST WAIT UNTILL WEL'LL SEE MUSHROOM IN JAPAN!!

 

RALLY DOW  +20.000!!!

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:09 | 1050008 bigking12345
bigking12345's picture

and he loves the NY mets, what a losers, the invisible hand holding up the market today will kill all the widows and orphans soon.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:58 | 1049972 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Yep, AAPL and NFLX both rocketing.

They never even went red today.

Most overvalued, overpriced issues are still in hot demand.

Must be those CANSLIMMERS getting back in after getting chased out on Thursday.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:23 | 1050051 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Go make your money then, stop Trolling

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:46 | 1050119 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Robo writes the truth = He even puts commentary to how bizarre the trades are . I don't get the junks he is a daytrader and he calls the day bullish or bearish .

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1050114 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Netflix is red right now.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:21 | 1050220 reading
reading's picture

You should know never say never...

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:59 | 1049976 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

I sat down over the weekend, enjoying a good 25Y Bourbon and a nice cigar and tried to contemplate what could bring this market down....

Answer: A TOTAL REMOVAL OF WS AND DC! Nothing else can, or so it seems! We are still leveraging up and gorging on cheap money from the good old american taxpayer!

Sometimes I wish something really bad happens so that we can start anew but then again,

it will be same ol' for the few and the many! WS and DC are in utter total control of the US of A and there seems to be no escape but one.....use your imagination! (If TV didn't kill that too)!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:59 | 1049978 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Is there anything that is not bullish for the market?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:02 | 1049987 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Aside from extinction event I believe not. Bear markets have been outlawed.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:00 | 1049980 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Kind of silly actually.....recover to what??  when??  just cleaning up the mess is some sort of recovery........sometimes these people just need to shut it

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:02 | 1049984 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

The faux sensitivity he applied over the pools of slobber was a nice touch.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:03 | 1049992 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

The economy will recover?  Recover to what? 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:05 | 1049995 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Nasdaq about to go green.

AAPL up $5.  Demand for iPad 2 is simply voracious.

I see more and more vending machines at the airport that sell iPods, iPads, etc.

I see none that sell gold.

LOL....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:30 | 1050079 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

You must only go to the US. Germany, China, have gold vending machines.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:22 | 1050226 reading
reading's picture

Ok, well that Nasdaq going green thing kind of went out the window.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:06 | 1049996 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

S&P down 5 points.  Loss of 3rd largest economy in the world priced in.  Go back to your regular programming.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:06 | 1049999 jez
jez's picture

"Japan’s economic growth rate will fall in the immediate aftermath of the natural disasters before rising sharply due to reconstruction activities."

 

Sounds like he's never heard of the broken window fallacy.

By the same logic, having the US air force bomb a few US nuclear power installations would also be good for US economic growth "due to reconstruction activities".

In fact, taking it one step further, why not obliterate a US city every week? Pretty soon you'll all be rich.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:08 | 1050010 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Nut jobs already believe the Gov did that with 9/11 and Katrina!!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:06 | 1050004 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Apple coming out with radiation detection app, stock up 4 points.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:06 | 1050005 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

And in other news (below), one of those extremely competent, capable and credible 'rating agencies' has blessed the U.K. and its tremendously solid credit worthiness.

 

03-14 10:01: Fitch affirms UK rating at AAA, Outlook Stable
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:15 | 1050030 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Not only that, 4% inflation is the max for the U.K. according to Fitch, and they expect it to fall into 2012.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:07 | 1050006 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

The Japanese are going to do this right, unlike the US after Katrina. Watch the efficiency and speed with which they clean up and re-house the homeless, and get energy production back on track. El-Erian is right on the money.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:12 | 1050020 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

TexDenim...

Your breasts are... err...

Simply Stunning.....

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:20 | 1050043 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Get a room!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:42 | 1050329 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

Agreed RT, those breasts are incredible.

I just got arrested.

The crime?  Sexual assault.

The victim?  My computer screen. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:26 | 1054529 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

RoboTrader -- Yours are too my dear!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:21 | 1050044 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Her future sons will be very very happy....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:15 | 1050517 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Depends on what age...  at some point, the only thing they'll hear about is all their male friends wanting to know if their mom is home before coming over...  hopefully they have a pool.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:09 | 1050009 Tulli
Tulli's picture

Newsflash: The new iPad can be used as a nuclear shield. All you have to do is wave it before the radiation cloud and all is good.

 

Messed up world....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:09 | 1050011 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

JLL on the brink of making new highs, almost at $100.

JLL yield is a paltry .20/share and everybody wants it.

FCX yield is 4%, and nobody wants it.

These REITs just refuse to sell off.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:12 | 1050021 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Disasters are good for bank bonuses.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:13 | 1050026 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

rice that glows like gold = bullish

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1050027 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Maniacal dip buying going on today in TM and HMC.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1050029 Hondo
Hondo's picture

None of the events nor Japans actions in the face of the events can change Japans long-term growth factors.  How does any of this change labor force or productivity factors???  El-Erain is preaching the same old Keynesian BS.......spend spend spend.....and hope for the best.  A quarter or even a year or so of faster growth (because of the rebuilding) will not change the dynamics in place (only fool the idiots) and it won't bring the total wealth of the country back to anywhere near to prior to the event........foolish economics at best.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:17 | 1050036 Cdad
Cdad's picture

As disgusting as this market has been for the last 8 months, today the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street hits a new low, pumping stories about how great natural disasters are, as well as nuclear meltdowns, on the coming of new infrastructure projects...you know, once the bodies are cleared.

I don't think this bounce will work...as I think everyone can now clearly see how the syndicate's immorality has overtaken all reason, all laws, all calculable economics...at the center of the decayed heart of America.  It is simply embarrassing to be involved in any way with this criminal syndicate.

Buy VXX. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:17 | 1050200 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I would, but I'm afraid that where we are headed they won't be able to pay off because of force majure.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:18 | 1050037 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

 

Yes this is a massive human tragedy.  But that doesn't change the fact that uranium miners are EXTREMELY attractive here.  The world absolutely needs nuclear power.  I picked up some CCJ this morning at 29.05.

 

The comments here remind me of what was being posted during the oil spill in the gulf.  Right or wrong, where are BP, RIG and APC trading now? 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:24 | 1050054 mirac
mirac's picture

At Pimco, Bill Gross is EL-Cabong, and El-Erian is Bobalouy

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1050059 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

"Disruptions to supply chains and the loss of inventories will cause shortages and inflation to spike temporarily from very low levels."

Great... arrived just in time to be The Bernank's excuse for rising core prices. "No, it wasn't my money printing. It's temporary. BTFD."

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:50 | 1050133 ImNotExposed
ImNotExposed's picture

Joe Six-pack (and congress) is supposed to interpret temporary inflation as a temporary increase in prices. Unfortunately temporary inflation causes a permanent increase in prices. We are so fucked.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:57 | 1050155 ImNotExposed
ImNotExposed's picture

Speaking of which: http://tinyurl.com/4jvakae

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:24 | 1050060 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

BAC is down 1%!!

WAW!

this must be a really bad day...

 

JUSTICE PREVAILS!!

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1050066 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

The last time you went to Best Cuts they took off more than that. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:24 | 1050061 Guerette
Guerette's picture

I have a general question. On Friday morning, my instincts had me plugging in at-the-money April 2011 puts on CCJ and DNN. I did not pull the trigger. I felt really guilty for even thinking of making that trade. Thoughts, comments? Was anyone else in the same boat?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:24 | 1050063 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

"And in other news (below), one of those extremely competent, capable and credible 'rating agencies' has blessed the U.K. and its tremendously solid credit worthiness."

"Not only that, 4% inflation is the max for the U.K. according to Fitch, and they expect it to fall into 2012."

Thanks gents,I now need a new keyboard............

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1050068 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Broken window fallacy. AmazIng this passes for legitimate economic analysis. It will take these regions in japan at least a decade to recover to march 9, 2011 levels. Save this "recovery is boom" shut for barber shops and Larry summers interviews

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:28 | 1050078 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

The epitome of evil is now being shown in theatre 6. Hell may not be big enough when all the guys like him go.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:35 | 1050097 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Goldman had time to reposition their trading book.  Game on.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1050101 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This would be a good time for Calpers to buy more equities. [/sarcasm]

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1050105 morph
morph's picture

Economics at its best again. Distasters are good for GDP!

 

Also in other news, throwing litter out of your car window creates jobs.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:06 | 1050124 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

Witnessing the incredible positive spin on this unprecedented cataclysm makes me question my own sanity. Apparently natural and man made calamitous ruination has combined in tandem to provide the latest growth industry. Given the lack of any other feasible alternative on the immediate and hopelessly blighted economic horizon, it makes one wonder if indeed the insane global technocrat engineers haven't had recourse to their infernal HAARP death machines, as some have suggested, to undermine the very natural foundations of the planet upon the ruins of which to erect their dystopian Novus Ordo Seclorum. At the very least, it appears that we now have the answer to the burning question of where PIMCO's Bill Gross is going to plough that $53 billion he just withdrew from US T-bills. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:48 | 1050125 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Spin Zone...as they lie, they're probably elling their shares as to not be last one on bus..

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:04 | 1050128 bingaling
bingaling's picture

I don't get it,  the worlds number 3 economy is out of business, yet analysts form every corner of the world have said it will be either beneficial to their own country's economy or have no effect at all . Every country in the world is fine , amazing . Nobody sold anything to Japan , nobody needs anything from Japan it is like Japan never existed .  Amazing .

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:51 | 1050131 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

thanks to all those that posted Martin Armstrong's latest PDF. Just finished reading it.

Gold, bitchez!

Only a monthly closing BELOW 1150 would signal a bear market. This does NOT appear to be in the cards.
To extend the life of the bull market, we really need a pause.
It is like taking a sleep at night and you wake up all refreshed and ready to go!
This is all we are talking about.

:)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:54 | 1050146 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The Vix is now breaking out...above its 200 day sma.  Here comes the dip that no amount of BTFD will halt.  As a reminder, the price dislocation between VIX spot and near term VIX futures is huge...months of naked short selling syndicate price suppression schemes to keep this sick market moving up.

The reason for this breakout, I suspect, is the basic knowledge that those Japanese reactors have indeed melted down.  I suspect no one is buying the government story anymore...except for the Ministry of Truth [CNBC], of course.  US Naval movements seem to be confirmation of the truth. 

And when Tokyo is radiated, let us then hear from the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street about how great all this news was, death and destruction, their back of the envelope GDP calculations.

Again, and until perp walks have happened, and until lay offs numbering tens of thousands have occurred from within the financial services sector, this nation shall remain doomed to suffer the actions of these, the most morally bankrupt group of people amongst us.

Our fate is well-earned. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:28 | 1050222 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Ahh, reading my mind again...

The red flag for me is that super efficient and incredibly well trained Japanese responders can't get...wait for it..

 

...fuel to their fire trucks in order to restart the pumps (which they've been using to try and cool the exposed cores?).

Why?

There's a good reason why they can't get fuel in, which could ordinarily be done by land or air (some heavy lifting helos), and I'm afraid as to what the precise reason is, which I've yet to even hear mentioned or explained in any sensible way.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:02 | 1050166 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Hey Tyler and whomever...check this out.  IAEA secretary general touring their disaster response team in action.  Pretty boring, right? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqiWVO6FNg0

Pause at 0:46.  Interesting data.  Wonder what it is?  Good questions being asked at 0:55 to the Unit 2 folks back in Japan.  Wonder what they said in response?

Still scanning video to see if anyone has ZH up on their desktop.  Or nudies.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1050168 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

If you have health insurance, stab yourself in the gut.

It will help the medical industry, and GDP.

As an added bonus, healing is good for you.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:05 | 1050175 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Daily POMO $7.5 billion ready to spike the SPY at 2pm today.  What a Country.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:18 | 1050206 tmftdoyle
tmftdoyle's picture

Wow! What bold and insightful commentary out of newport. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:21 | 1050213 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Patient's pancreas has exploded spreading toxins throughout the body causing a slight fever. But overall Prognosis very good.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:24 | 1050231 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

hopium- the drug of choice for sheeple

lie2um- the prescribed drug for the masses by leading crooks andliars everywhere

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:32 | 1050265 Papaneuf
Papaneuf's picture

Umm.....

Gold & Silver Bitchez!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNGe7iK1O-4

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:57 | 1050414 benb
benb's picture

Making a Japan economy recovery call at this point is beyond inane. The nightmare is likely just beginning. If the reactors continue to destabilize and the wind blows the wrong way Japan is not just crippled indefinitely it will become the global horror story. Once the beans are counted on just what has gone down so far, the Japanese economy is already severely wounded.(IMO) And that’s not even considering the real potential for serious fallout on the US.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F70jpw_LT-Q&feature=player_embedded

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:19 | 1050545 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Geiger counter in tokyo still climbing

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:34 | 1050615 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Sad to see El Erian now speaking with forked tongue. I suspect PIMCO holds tons of "stuff" related to Japan's GDP somehow. As more and more reactors melt down leaking strong radiation and the volcano on Kyushu erupts, how can ANYONE predict a strong recovery. It simply defies credibility!

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:46 | 1050686 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

In the past El- Erian has writtne some interesting stuff but this looks purely self-serving rubbish....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 13:36 | 1050945 JR
JR's picture

Destruction equals productivity, not.

Frederic Bastiat’s example of the broken window contradicts El-Erian: “Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed," i.e., its stock of wealth -  except,  perhaps, the “stock of wealth” of those who profit from destruction.

“Destruction of a window does not provide any net benefit to the town,  but rather makes the town poorer in future benefits by at least the value of one window, if not more. “

THE PARABLE (Wikipedia):

Bastiat's original parable of the broken window from That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen (1850):

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James Goodfellow, when his careless son happened to break a pane of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation—"It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?"

Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.

Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier's trade—that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs—I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.

But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, "Stop there! Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen."

It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 14:11 | 1051138 ivana
ivana's picture

How much of jap corporation production/industry/hitech is outsourced abroad? Can anybody give rough % estimation?

mean if they have still domestic gov revenues, its worth wile repairing all infrastructure.
If not - infrastructure repair debts will push them over the cliff instantly

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 14:31 | 1051266 ginunn
ginunn's picture

Presumably El- Erian is a bright guy to get where he is. Unfortunately, to make any kind of a statement about the economic effects of this disaster either on Japan or the world economy at this early stage reduces him to the level of a CNBC talking mouth.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 14:47 | 1051341 ivana
ivana's picture

+1

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 14:51 | 1051359 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Mr. Erian lost all credibility today.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:55 | 1052681 trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

Who is El-Eran?He predicted on most importent oil turn that oil from 35$ doing to 25$ loored investors while oil went up all way to now levels

People get together,anyone who cares about basic problem of our existance FED invited to vote in our poll and read out latest comments on yahoo FED article about QE3:

http://trendybull777.blog.com/2011/02/21/hello-world/

Voting poll is waiting for you click,take 5sec to make your choice,we must to reach critical level to be recognised by others to tove too!Thank you and keep all us together regardless government effords,we appreciate if you link us to other polls,blogs,sites to let people or your friiends to vote FED existence

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 21:15 | 1052959 JR
JR's picture

“Imagine,that in 2004-2006 the account 1mln$ was receive 40,000.00$ in interest annually,by 2007 this amount evaporated ,now multiply this money by million world wide holders and you will see how much money Fed stolen just in 1-2year frame slashing interests and killing savers?Now,this saved money after loosing a stick of interest by the Big Maestro Mr.Bernanke is destined to be invested into different bubbled proposals cased by Fed policies and its’ almost no choices for those cash holders but to starve on investment losses that or that way.”   -- Gorodskij

Right on, that!!  Thanks for the poll.

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