Pivotfarm Daily News Harvest 13th August 2010

Markets in a Flash

·        
The USD is starting to look
stronger this morning. It is gaining as investors seek less risk.

·        
The EUR/JPY appears to be
trading very close to its monthly lows.

·        
US equity futures are lower
today suggesting the selloff will continue when the markets open.

·        
Oil is trading just below the
$86.00 mark while Gold is pushing higher to around $1200.00.

·        
Most Asian markets were up over
night. The Nikkei posted gains of +0.44%.

·        
European equity markets started
the day positive but have turned negative as trading has continued.

News focus

Eurozone Countries Show Strong Growth

German GDP data
released this morning came in ahead of forecast with a 2.2% rise in Q2 compared
with the previous quarter. France
also reported GDP figures and showed a 0.6% rate of growth compared with a rate
of 0.4% expected. These strong figures from two of the Eurozones major
economies boosts investors confidence that the economic recovery in Europe is maintainable. The Growth in Germany has
been helped along by the countries strong exports, which have been boosted by
the weakness in the Euro.  Germany’s GDP
growth is their fastest since 1990 and is equivalent to 8% annualised. 

0830ET
– Consumer Price Index

CPI - M/M change

Previous                              -0.1 %                Consensus          0.3 %

Consensus Range            -0.1 % to 0.4 %         Actual                0.3 %

The consumer
price index has come in on consensus. This has shown that prices paid by
consumers have risen this month after the fall in the previous month. This
should not have a great impact on the markets as the consensus figure was
probably already priced in.

0830ET
- Retail Sales

Retail Sales -
M/M change

Previous                              -0.5 %                  Consensus          0.5 %

Consensus Range            0.2 % to 1.0 %            Actual                0.4 %

Consumer spending contributes heavily to
GDP, so a rise or fall in retail sales can be a good indicator of what GDP is
doing. The data released today shows a rise in retail sales which indicates a
potential rise in GDP. This rise has come in slightly below consensus so should
be a little bit bearish. This may indicate that the economic recovery is not
happening as well as expected.

Coming up Today

0955ET – Consumer
Sentiment

Previous                              67.8                Consensus
         69.0 

Consensus Range            67.9 to 71.0 

The index measures consumer’s financial
positions and attitudes toward the economy. Today’s reading is the first of two
due for August 2010. The figure dropped lower than previous last month but
today’s data is expected to show a small rise. A reported figure below
consensus or below previous will put bearish forces on the dollar and the US equity
markets as it is an indication in a reduction in consumer spending.

1000ET – Business
Inventories

Previous                              0.1 %               Consensus          0.2 %

Consensus Range            0.0 % to 0.5 %

This is the measure of monthly change in
the dollar amount of inventories held by companies. The data released today is
expected to show a rise in inventory levels. As businesses restock and produce
more inventories more labour must be used. This results in more jobs and more
spending.

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