Pivotfarm Daily News Harvest 30th July 2010

Markets in a Flash

·        
Asian equity markets closed
down across the board last night. The Nikkei was down -1.64%, while the Shanghai index was down
-0.4%.

·        
European equity markets are
falling this morning ahead of the US GDP figures. The FTSE 100 is down -0.57% at
lunchtime London
time.

·        
Commodities are mixed in today
trading session. Oil is falling back in correlation with equities while Gold is
gaining as investors find safety.

·        
The JPY seems strong today
making gains against the USD, EUR and GBP.

·        
The EUR/USD and the GBP/USD are
both down as investors sought safety in the greenback as money come out of the
equity markets.

·        
US equity futures are down less than 0.5% suggesting the equity
markets are going to open lower, but this will be heavily affected by the US economic
data.

News Focus

The news focus
today is on the US GDP figure. The figure is the big mover of the markets on
the last trading day of the week.  The
Employment Cost Index and Consumer Sentiment will also play parts in directing
the markets.

Just Released

0830ET
– GDP

Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR

Previous                              2.7 %                     Consensus          2.5 %

Consensus Range            1.0 % to 3.4 %    Actual                   2.4 %

The GDP figure of 2.4% is worse than
expected. It is not much lower than the expected figure of 2.5% but will put
bearish forces on the markets as it shows the economy is not growing as fast as
first thought. This is the big figure of the day and should mean that the
equity markets fall when they open and should weaken the USD as the economy is
weaker than thought.                             

0830ET
– Employment Cost Index

ECI - Q/Q change

Previous                              0.6 %            Consensus          0.4%

Consensus Range            0.3 % to 0.6 %    Actual                 0.5 %

This measure of labour costs has shown
today that employers are paying more than expected for labour. This has come in
higher than expected.  

Coming up Today

0945ET – Chicago PMI

Previous                              59.1             Consensus          56.0 

Consensus Range            51.4 to 58.4 

The monthly
survey measures business conditions in the Chicago area. A figure above 50 indicates
growth, and that is what is expected from today’s figure. If the figure is
report under consensus it will put bearish forces on the markets.

0955ET – Consumer
Sentiment

Previous                              66.5                        Consensus          67.0 

Consensus Range            57.9 to 68.0 

The index measures consumer’s financial
positions and attitudes toward the economy. Today’s reading is the second of
two due for July 2010. A reported figure below consensus or below previous will
put bearish forces on the dollar and the US equity markets as it is an indication
in a reduction in consumer spending.

Provided by Pivotfarm.com Support and Resistance Research