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Is The Play For Iran's Nukes The Endgame Of Ongoing MENA Violence?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the majority of the world was in a sleepy mood courtesy of closed core capital markets, events in Syria were anything but. From Reuters: "Syrian security forces killed almost 90 protesters on Friday, rights activists said, the bloodiest day in a month of escalating pro-democracy demonstrations against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad." Yet while many are quick to dismiss "yet another MENA revolution", Emad Mostaque, MENA strategist at UK's Religare Capital Markets begs to differ. "The market implications of a breakdown in Syria would be profound, but likely not be felt immediately as it doesn’t tick the boxes for proximity (such as Bahrain) or oil production (such as Libya). Iran’s influence would be curtailed, as would support for Hezbollah and Hamas." But the mittelspiel does not end there, and will likely have even greater consequences on Israel: "A third intifada between Israel and Palestine is already likely following a series of rather unpleasant attacks from both sides and a Syrian breakdown would heighten the chances of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, particularly given the success thus far of their new Iron Dome anti-ballistic system (even stops mortars)... A conflict like this would raise the chances of a follow up attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly if Hezbollah’s retaliatory rocket capabilities were neutered." So it appears that the old bogeyman from the summer of 2010, Iran's nuclear power - the source of so much Stuxnet (of unknown origin( consternation, is about to come back front and center all over again. And when one factors in the ubiquitous presence of CIA operatives (flipflops on the ground) in the region (always disclosed well after the fact) one wonders just how staged this latest "revolution" truly is.

Full note from Emad Mostaque of Religãre Capital Markets

1. The situation in Syria has deteriorated rapidly with protests spreading from the poorer classes, thirsty after a four year drought in Deraa and elsewhere, toward the middle class. President Bashar’s improved performance in his April 16th speech and suspension of the emergency law have not slowed the momentum of the protests, with no real move toward addressing the key issue of the concentration of wealth amongst a privileged elite and lack of political freedom. Indeed, the government stance that lifting the emergency rule should remove the need for additional protests seems to be missing the mark.
 
The security forces control Syria and have a largely minority makeup in contrast to the Sunni majority. This has been the primary mechanism for Alawite control through the Baath party, with an implicit agreement with the prominent merchant families for rule in return for economic favours. With the Syrian economy already suffering from food inflation, the current drop in tourism and FDI will start to hit the pocket books of this group, weakening their support.
 
In addition, foreign influence is likely to increase. While it is easy to mock the comments of the government, directly out of Qaddafi’s book, of blaming the deaths on Salafist groups (membership of the Muslim brotherhood is still punishable by death), there may be some grain of truth in this, particularly as armed forces fatalities increase. There has been a clear move toward sectarianism in the region to negate the increasing Iranian influence highlighted in past notes. While stability of the Alawite regime in Syria was previously beneficial for almost all groups, this dynamic has now changed somewhat, with a Sunni leadership preferable to some, particularly as the alternative ruling structure is unlikely to be Islamist or extreme..
 
Assad believed that his credentials as a reformer and member of the resistance bloc would inure him from the protests seen elsewhere and allow him time for reform. This has been reiterated in his comments and actions, but it is clear that public belief is waning. An escalation in the violence will only make things worse and a repeat of the siege of Hama, where 20,000 died, scaring off past protests, is unlikely in today’s connected world. Broad-based populist reform and ceding of power by the regime will be difficult to enact given their delicate position atop the pyramid and the opposition of party hardliners, but one possible avenue may be for Assad to reassert his popular support by having a free Presidential election. Given the cult of personality in Syria and lack of alternatives, he would win a mandate and time to push through some of the reforms he has claimed to wish for, while taking the heat out of the protests and halt the rise of the opposition.
 
The market implications of a breakdown in Syria would be profound, but likely not be felt immediately as it doesn’t tick the boxes for proximity (such as Bahrain) or oil production (such as Libya). Iran’s influence would be curtailed, as would support for Hezbollah and Hamas.  Indeed, at the end of March we saw weapons from Iran to Syria via cargo plane seized by the Turkish authorities.
 
A third intifada between Israel and Palestine is already likely following a series of rather unpleasant attacks from both sides and a Syrian breakdown would heighten the chances of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, particularly given the success thus far of their new Iron Dome anti-ballistic system (even stops mortars). The current sorry state of affairs in Lebanese politics would also contribute to this as the increasing sectarian split could easily lead to a replay of 2006 when Israeli bombs conveniently stopped where the Christian areas started. A conflict like this would raise the chances of a follow up attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly if Hezbollah’s retaliatory rocket capabilities were neutered. Aside from this, there might be some read across to Turkey should the Kurds in the north push for independence. Kurdish activists in Turkey have been raising their voices recently, with a death in the last few days of protests.

 

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Sat, 04/23/2011 - 04:00 | 1198569 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Things appear to be deteriorating rapidly.

Dominos Bitchez.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:16 | 1198790 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

STOP... go back and read the replies to your previous comment.  Your making an ass of yourself!!!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:27 | 1198889 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Your making an ass out of yourself. Nothing ironic about that sentence...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:18 | 1198791 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

* Junks you without prejudice -Bitch-

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:34 | 1198814 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Those who cannot remember history are condemned to repeat it.
You've now been added to the list of those who would save ZH from itself.

So... you gonna junk Tyler too?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:38 | 1198816 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Pot, meet kettle.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:39 | 1198820 CH1
CH1's picture

That's the way things are done here - just accept it.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:31 | 1198892 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Did you grow up under a tarp?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:09 | 1199499 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

@thatthingcanfly

You can always skip on by comments you don't like. And the reason you don't "get it", is that you miss the spirit of comradarie some of us have for this wonderful place. We call ourselves "bitches", "biotches", "bitchez", etc...

If that offends you, you can always leave. And feel free to junk away anytime you want. Free speech is alive and well here on ZH.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:09 | 1199920 Gashole
Gashole's picture

No it's not.  I have had a post on this thread deleted.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:57 | 1200114 Confuchius
Confuchius's picture

@gashole

You have two problems: Your name is misspelled and your avatar is - - is - - apalling.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 21:15 | 1200130 jm
jm's picture

On the contrary, that is one fine avatar.  I can almost see it waving in the breeze under a bright sun.  Plus, his comments are a breath of fresh air.

Pandas make great avatars too, but you probably shouldn't harp on others' spelling.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 21:34 | 1200146 Gashole
Gashole's picture

To Confuchius:

Kish mir in tuchas.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:58 | 1199087 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

"Investors need to diversify, they need to own some real estate, they need to own some farmland, they need to own some equities, some cash, and some precious metals..."   Marc Faber —Investment analyst

Got real estate and farmland outside your home country?

http://www.thorssoncapital.weebly.com

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 04:11 | 1198576 cossack55
cossack55's picture

The "big Three" indicators of what is going to happen to any nation on the planet:

1. Do they have oil

2. Do they have gold

3. Do they have a "connected" Central Bank

One might also throw in geographic access to shipping lanes.

Year of The Long Knives

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 04:21 | 1198585 Breaker
Breaker's picture

Do not forget: Would success of the insurgents annoy or please Iran? If Iran would be unhappy with insurgent success, the insurgents will not receive any US support, verbal or otherwise. If Iran would like the insurgents to succeed, the US will demand the government step down and if they are lucky, bomb the regime.

The only exception to that rule so far is Bahrain, where Iran would have loved to see the regime fall. I suspect large amounts of Saudi oil overweighed the "suck up to Iran" rule this administration has followed to date.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 06:43 | 1198644 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Please cite specific examples of this "suck up to Iran" rule, and no, the fact the US hasn't bombed or invaded the country does not count...

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 03:17 | 1200406 Breaker
Breaker's picture

1. When Iranian students were rising up against the Mullahs, they got nary a word of support from the Obamanator. Nor did they get guns and ammunition on the sly. Zero and his minions have tolerated slaughter and jailing of Iranian citizens on a much larger scale tha Ghadaffi.

2. Iran was cheerleading when Zero insisted that Mubarak step down. Wonder Why? Part of the why is that zero's old buddies, Ayers and Dorhn, had spent some time in Egypt fomenting a rebellion. Taking out the country principally responsible for the fact that Israel has been mostly at peace with it's neighbors (except the Pali's) seems right up their alley as Zero's official envoys to start a revolution.

3. Syria is ripe to fall. It is an Iranian lackey that forces Lebanon to serve as an Iranian base against Israel. No word from Zero that Assad must step down. I hear crickets chirping as I wait for Zero to call for the Sunni majority to replace the Shia Bath party there. Still chirping.

4. Iran is cheering on the Libyan freedom fighters who will probably turn Libya into another Afghanistan, fun loving stays for terrorists in training or on the lam.

As I noted earlier, Bahrain is the sole counterexample to my hypothesis. That is pretty easily explained by the US need to keep the Saudi's pumping oil and it was Saudi troops in Bahrain.

Summary, Zero is consciously and forcefullly representing Iran's interests in he middle east.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 01:37 | 1200361 I dont belong here
I dont belong here's picture

Nonsense. These are staged revolts, with the goal of bringing the price of oil to over 200 a barrel. TPTF couldn't give a rat's ass what Iran thinks of the people involved. Its the CIA and the Muslim Brotherhood for the most part anyway. Every single monarchy and current political group in MENA is going to fall. Saudi Arabia will be last.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:01 | 1201613 natureoftheexpe...
natureoftheexperiment's picture

The U.S finally moving ahead with "Grand Area" goals/unquestionable power. 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:48 | 1198915 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

4. Do they have nuclear weapons.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:00 | 1198935 Popo
Popo's picture

And how many smaller wars will break out and be completely ignored because they don't have any of the above?

For instance:  

http://thaifinancialpost.com/2011/04/23/heavy-fighting-breaks-out-betwee...

 

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:32 | 1199007 Kickaha
Kickaha's picture

Back in 1970 or so, I took a poli-sci course taught by a professor (well, actually taught by an Indian grad student with a heavy accent nobody could understand) which thought itself revolutionary as being empirical-based rather than theoretical.  The prof had compiled a list of about 97 wars which had occurred worldwide since the Korean conflict, then reviewed them with an eye to which of maybe 57 different factors were present, and then looked for correlations in the data.

It was cool, because we got to play with punchcards and terminals hooked to the campus mainframe.

But I had never heard of about 92 of those wars.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 14:00 | 1199383 falak pema
falak pema's picture

what is war to locals is a non event to foreigners...In this hyper media age! American Idol is more important than a civil war in Sri Lanka...to US audiences. Its been the case for 70 years!

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 08:25 | 1200532 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

There is also a disputed offshore boundary between Thailand and Cambodia, which ironically is entirely about oil, but neither side would be supplying the oil produced to the US or EU regardless of how the boundary is drawn and the JDA is finally drafted.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 04:13 | 1198578 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Tyler,

 ----------------------SOVEREIGN DEBT HAIRCUTS--------------------------

1.GREECE up to 76% the 2011

 

http://www.rankia.com/respuestas/744182/images/37533

 

http://www.rankia.com/contenidos/744182-re-grecia-hara-reestructuracion-deuda-esta-semana/images/37537

Please feel free to comment these charts,

Source Citi,

 

I would like to share with u, and ZH members

just send me an email to obtain the original piece.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 04:19 | 1198584 BlackholeDivestment
Sat, 04/23/2011 - 06:36 | 1198641 Antarctico
Antarctico's picture

Nice call on The Call!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 04:39 | 1198591 nah
nah's picture

will there be anti royalists, communists, nazis, vietnamize style pragmatic nationalism, or glen beck voodoo when there be no more revolutionary love story

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 06:57 | 1198652 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

There's a religious conflict brewing in the region, with the Salafi groups led by Saudi, aiming to strike a fatal blow to the Shia bases in Syria and Iran.  Bahrain is a Sunni leadership with a Shia majority - Syria is the other way round, so these are proxy wars as a precursor the coming conflict between Saudi and Iran.  The deal with the devil has Saudi and Israel willing to work together to defeat their enemy in Iran.   

Of course, part of the motivation for the House of Saud is to pander to the extremists in order to distract from the discontent within the country for the inequality and generally worsening living standards.

It is going to get very ugly and oil in Dollars is going to go much higher unless the US uses whatever influence it has left to try and calm the situation.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 07:12 | 1198666 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

I find it difficult to believe that anything good is going to come out of a bunch of twenty something year old arab guys running around the desert with AK 47s and driving pick up trucks loaded with machine guns and rocket launchers yelling Allah Akbar. Looks more like a vision from Mad Max or some horrific post-apocalyptic world.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 08:36 | 1198755 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

The good part is they are running around over there toting AK 47s and driving pick p trucks loaded with machine guns and rocket launchers yelling Allah Akbar and being killed. Not here.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:06 | 1198780 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:22 | 1198798 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Who could afford to drive around in a pickup in the USA?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:10 | 1198869 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Just wait for the Trumpists.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 14:53 | 1199456 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Trumpists who blow their hornblower...not their horn...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:45 | 1198908 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Good one.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:20 | 1198981 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Furthermore, my Lord Exchequer, and in spite of well-know Continental Leanings to the contrary, I find it difficult to credit that any Good shall come of Bands of young Colonials, styling themselves "American" to avoid the more apt description of Ruffian and even Traitor, hiding in the Forests like Savages and only coming forth to commit Mayhem and Murder upon the duly appointed Representatives of their Rightful Sovereign.

I can assure you with Confidence that the Exploits of such Ragamuffin Youths shall be quickly extinguished, and soon forgotten.

I remain, as ever, your most faithful Servant, Thom. Hutchinson on this 23 Apr. anno domini 1775 ~

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:36 | 1199029 Kickaha
Kickaha's picture

I cannot help but also comment that, on a macro basis, there is an oversupply of young arabic men, due to some of those Muslim tenets regarding the role of women.

Places where life is cheap tend to have a lot more armed conflict.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 14:54 | 1199460 falak pema
falak pema's picture

what they need is a harem of emancipated women..not horizontal moving tents...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 07:20 | 1198678 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

after learning of the most logical reasons of the "revolution" in libya, one cannot help but find themselves rooting for momar.... 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:23 | 1198801 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Better the controllable despot via a bombing run on his tent than suicidal jihadists that want to die.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 07:28 | 1198686 par4
par4's picture

...one wonders how staged the latest 'revolution' is...? Sure are a lot of dead protesters for a 'staged' revolution. That seems to be taking 'method' acting to the ultimate extreme.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 07:30 | 1198687 granolageek
granolageek's picture

>> sleepy mood courtesy of closed core capital markets<<

 

Sheesh. That's all that matters in life eh? Words fail.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 07:34 | 1198688 N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

Entire situaton, especially Libya, reminiscent of Spanish civil war, pre WW2, worlld powers taking sides & testing out the hardware of war.

http://www.debka.com/article/20862

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 08:13 | 1198727 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i have NO idea, what to think that is!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 08:11 | 1198728 lindaamick
lindaamick's picture

Jobs are scarce in the US.  Bullets, bombs and other perishables are

great revenue generators for the remaining manufacturing in the US.

War is the only manufacturing industry in the US that is growing.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 08:43 | 1198761 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I would think melting copper wires and pennies for recycling would be a growing manufacturing industry in the US. Not that I would avocate starting a smelter. But if you did, only use non-US pennies. Destroying US currency by melting is a Federal Crime.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:30 | 1198809 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The federal government is committing criminal acts on it's citizens. It has wiped it's ass with the constitution. I care not about the criminal enterprise known as our government.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:32 | 1198811 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

The melt value of a US penny is $.0063308 so don't bother. US nickels however are a different story. $.0696 melt value per nickel. Maybe start there.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:43 | 1198824 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Maybe edjumicate yourself -> http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1909-1982-Lincoln-Cent-Penny-Value.html

It's all about the date of the coin actually.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 12:38 | 1201045 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

coinflation.com is a great website!

1981 and before pennies are worth $0.028 (copper metal value) or so, almost triple the face value.

Nickels are worth about $0.067, or 1.67 cents more than 5 cents.

And that 1964 silver quarter they gave me (in change, shopping in the cruise port area of Cozumel) comes in at an impressive $8.00 +.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:28 | 1198888 uno
uno's picture

Sabibaby  had the link I was referencing

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 08:34 | 1198744 Agent P
Agent P's picture

"To brush aside America's responsibility as a leader and more profoundly our responsibilities to our fellow human beings under such circumstances would have been a betrayal of who we are.  Some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities in other countries. The United States of America is different. And as president, I refused to wait for the images of slaughter and mass graves before taking action."

Ladies and Gentlemen, The President of the United States.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 08:45 | 1198764 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Note: Exceptions and waivers given to countries without oil or are too powerful to attack with impunity. 

See: "Obamacare waivers."

 

 

<HELP> For explanation.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:20 | 1198983 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Busch Doctrine on steroids

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:18 | 1198792 Logman
Logman's picture

Syria, the next stop on the way to Iran.  Tensions will rise, Israel will light the fuse and half the world will go up in flames.  I hope you're all long concrete and rebar.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:16 | 1198793 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I'm not so sure that the "revolution" is "staged". I do think, however, that the unforeseen consequences of the Syrian uprising will be far-reaching.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:48 | 1198836 CH1
CH1's picture

I'm not sure of much anything. We are being lied to on all sides... by professionals.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:24 | 1198804 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And when the revolt start happening in Europe and the US, they will say it's terrorism... but when they do it in Syria, Libya, Iran and Egypt, they are freedom fighters...

Of course.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:49 | 1198837 CH1
CH1's picture

Of course.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:50 | 1198911 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Naturally

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:35 | 1198813 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

A war between Israel and Iran would go down like this. Israel would attack Iran's nuclear centers successfully but they would face reprisals. Iran,Syria,Hamas,and Hezbollah would fire missiles at Israel. Israel's David Sting,and Iron Dome systems would be overwhelmed. the Israeli air force would have to retreat from the north and go south because Hezbollah has M-600 missiles Iran would fire a multitude of missiles at Israel. Israel would then plan a ground invasion of Gaza and southern Lebanon. Israel at this time will do a bombing devastating blitz of Gaza and Lebanon. The air war over Lebanon will be very different. with upwards of 40,000 Katyusha rockets stockpiled, Hezbollah still retains the terror option. If Hezbollah's plentiful M600s were fired in high-volume volleys, the Arrow system could be overwhelmed. If the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps] launched Iranian high-value Shahab-3Bs and variants timed with Hezbollah's M600s, the Islamic republic could deal telling blows to strategic targets…. Hezbollah is said to be flush with the Russian-made SA-7 “Grail”, the SA-14 “Gremlin” and the SA-18 “Grouse."
These shoulder-fired SAMs are a point defense for covering mobile missile launchers like the M600 when exposed during the firing and retirement cycle. Also in the bargain came the SA-8 “Gecko”, a mobile launcher with a range of about 16 kilometers and a height of 12,000 meters. For Israel, the cost of setting back Iran’s nuclear program a few years before dealing decisively with Hezbollah and Hamas is at an all time high.
If Israel goes to invade southern Lebanon they will fall into a trap. The Lebanese military made a clear a couple of months ago that if Israel invades Lebanon that they will fight along side Hezbollah. So Israel will face a bloody guerilla campaign. In Gaza it will be an urban warfare nightmare.

Iranian special forces and Iraqi Shiite militias will start cutting the long US supply line alone Route Tampa from Kuwait City. Then the Shiites on southern Iraq will start a campaign on attacking the reaming 50,000 US troops. Iranian irregulars would cross the border to give support and man power for the Shiite militia. Shiites in the Iraqi army and police will defect to the side of the militias and start killing US troops. The troops will be able to hold their own but we would be forced to retreat from Iraq. The reason because at this time the Iraqi govt would collapse and all gains that was made from the surge will be un done for good. We could possibly see at least 100-180 US troops being killed when the Shiites cut the supply line temporarily(because our air support will stop the blockage) and start conducting guerrilla attacks on them. On Afghanistan we could see Iran reluctantly giving the Taliban SAMs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran has formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities. For example, all of these are vulnerable to Iranian sabotage or hundreds of Iranian missiles on the eastern side of the Gulf: from the narrow Straits of Hormuz, which still handles 25 percent of the world’s oil traffic; to Bahrain, the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s headquarters where the population is two-thirds Shiite and the royal family is Sunni; to Dubai, where about 400,000 Iranians live, including many who are “sleeper agents” or favorable to Tehran; to Qatar, now the world’s richest country with per-capita income at $78,000, which supplies the United States with the world’s longest runway and sub-headquarters for CENTCOM, and whose LNG facilities are within short missile range of Iran’s coastal batteries; to Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, the world’s largest oil terminal, and Abqaiq, nerve center of Saudi’s eastern oil field.
So an attack against Iran would be disastrous in multiple levels. Yes conventionally they are a paper tiger,but their strength is in asymmetrical warfare. they will try to destabilizes the region and create as much casualties on us and Israel. Israel will be bogged down in Lebanon fighting a combined Hezbollah and Lebanese military guerrilla force. ,we would be forced to either retreat from an Iraq descending into chaos or stand and fight until reinforcements come but face very high casualties in which the America citizen would not stomach since the Iraq war is very unpopular. And the war in Afghanistan gets worse with the Taliban getting SAM missiles to hinder the war effort. And the middle east more destabilized and dangerous then before. oil will skyrocket and hurt the already collapsing global economy. Any one with a modicum knowledge in economics and military strategy and tactics know this would be a disaster and blow up Israel and our face literally.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:23 | 1198883 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

kissinger dislikes this. 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:26 | 1198886 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Not a pretty picture you paint.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:34 | 1198891 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

The only way to effectively counter missles are boots on the ground.  And there will be Lots of Boots in this encounter!!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:55 | 1198923 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Whose boots and from where?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:29 | 1198893 Logman
Logman's picture

Nice post and much of it very believable.  But you forget that as soon as Israel starts taking losses the US will start bombing Iran and then it's curtains for everyone for a few years.  China won't take an Iran attack lying down, because that's their oil this time.  Russia will pick up the pieces once everyone involved has destroyed each other.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:49 | 1198910 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Good point about Russia in all this. They are playing all sides and nobody has a clue what their real position will be if Iran comes under western attack.

Russia has a long unhappy history with Islamic states to it's south going back many centuries. In a way Russia may not even know themselves what position to assume in a general Mid East conflict,

US expansion of NATO may, and I just say may, have taken out Russia as a potential friend in western/muslim conflicts. Lets face it, at this point the USA is bombing and fighting in a lot of muslim countries. Russia has only internal muslim problems at present.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:42 | 1199039 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

If China gets involved, it doesn't matter what Russia thinks or does, it's game over.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1199550 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Iran has no meaningful asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities... they have Photoshop.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:51 | 1199571 defencev
defencev's picture

A war between Iran and Israel will go like this:

One nuke on Teheran and everything will be over.

Do not even try to present Iran as something of

capable to destabilize Middle East.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:10 | 1199592 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

"Any one with a modicum knowledge in economics and military strategy and tactics know this would be a disaster and blow up Israel and our face literally."

Sounds like such a war is inevitable, in that case.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:48 | 1198833 obelisks
obelisks's picture

If people are dumb enough to attack Iran what will the reaction

of the Islamic world be to that and will an already pissed off

Pakistan offer up their 80-90 nuclear warheads for retaliation

aagainst the Zionists ?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:50 | 1198918 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

ANother good point. All eyes should be on Pakistan. My god that country is headed for failed state status and armed with lots of nukes.

US / Pakistan relations are at a low point right now. If Pakistan implodes or goes over to muslim extremists, then all bets are off.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 12:12 | 1199115 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

The only threat in the world is Israel (and their United States satellite). 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:48 | 1199052 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

What I am trying to stress is that the leadership in the Sunni powerhouses of Saudi and Pakistan hate the Shia more than they hate the Israeli's. Pakistan won't support Iran and neither will Saudi. In fact the likely alliance is between Saudi and Israel, provided they have their individual excuses (for Saudi, it is causing problems in Bahrain, for Israel it is Hezbollah).

When you look at the situation from the position of the Iranian regime, they find themselves beset by enemies, but they have tacit support from Russia and China.

Now, where's Archduke Ferdinand?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:09 | 1199929 Gashole
Gashole's picture

Plenty of muslims are willing to fight Israel down to the last Palestinian and Lebanese.  The question remains: Are Pakistanis and Iranians willing to risk their own populations in the name of destroying Israel?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 09:52 | 1198842 CH1
CH1's picture

Antisemitism is back boys and girls. They're just saying "Zionist" instead of "Jew" this time around.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:05 | 1198863 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

Anti-semitism is long overdue.  People have an amazing tolerance for abuse.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:22 | 1199498 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I would venture to disagree. There is a difference between anti-zionism... an apartheid creed that makes the ancient victims of the Warsaw ghetto, the new Kapos of the Gaza ghetto...with the Palestinians playing at being the jews...and anti-semitism. What an ironic betrayal of a double millennium  of racial discrimination now in reverse execution. So identifying Zionism with Jewish creed  is like mixing Islam with Talibanism or Salafism...or true evangelical Christianity with the papal Inquisition.

Do not mix spiritual religious quest with political agenda of fundamentalist deviants.

Zionism is an avowed political agenda. To understand it from a neutral party's viewpoint see the BBC financed masterpiece "The Promise'" about British colonial inspired origins of the Zionist movement after the World War2  and its snow-balling into this politically motivated apartheid oriented state.

Take a step back before the breath of History blows you away.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:45 | 1199553 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

There is an issue with your analysis.  The problem is not with Herzl's "Der Judenstaat" (the zionist declaration of independance).  The problem is with the Talmud - which is referenced by both religious and non-religious Jews and establishes a sociopathic supremacy complex.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:17 | 1199938 Gashole
Gashole's picture

Every ethnic group thinks of themselves as special.  Every religion believes that their traditions are the "most correct".  The problem with the Jews is Jewish success.  The fact that we succeed out of proportion to our numbers in so many endeavors is what breeds hatred against us. Not the Talmud.  Nobody would give a shit if Jews were as successful as the Druze or Baha'i or Buddhists or Branch Davidians, et al.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 00:36 | 1200331 JR
JR's picture

Rot.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 09:56 | 1200659 Logman
Logman's picture

Junked for being a Zionist Jew, and proud of it.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:22 | 1200054 JFK.4PREZ
JFK.4PREZ's picture

the rothschild family owns you and i.  Well they will until we are completely out of the paper game.  

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:49 | 1200102 Gashole
Gashole's picture

I would dispute the accuracy of that statement. But even if it were true, capitalism has winners and losers.  Lots of people can't stand that Jews are more frequently the winners.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 01:18 | 1200353 JR
JR's picture

If I had felt the lash of Simon Legree, I would not have admired him as a “winner” just because he received the influence to become overlord.

The fact that the Jews have taken over positions by cheating, by bending moral principles in transactions with their peers, by side stepping Constitutional fundamentals, by use of hiring-nepotism to take control of all bureaucratic regulatory agencies, by secretly grabbing ownership of the nation's money supply and by banding together to blackmail and threaten their individual enemies and competitors, makes it unthinkable to consider them admirable or achievers due to intelligence or honest skill.

We are being ruled right now by shysters and pygmies and criminals and halfwits (from Ruben to Emanuel to Bernanke).  To say we’re jealous of our rulers is nonsense.

America was based on individual achievement.  But individualism can become an Achille’s heel if individuals are faced with group pressure, boycotts, damaging press reports filled with tissues of lies, name calling and even a law suit that your enemy, acting as a group, can produce.

The only hope for America is a future Congress that will return control and ownership of the monetary system and the resulting freedom to the American people.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 11:06 | 1200768 Gashole
Gashole's picture

Jewish success is due to a culture that venerates education and ironically the antisemitism of others.  When you are ostracized by other groups you tend to turn inward towards your own community.  When you can't move up in the corporate world you enter the professions and start your own business, be it medicine, law, entertainment, etc.  Ironically Jewish acceptance in America is reversing these trends. Intermarriage and assimilation have been the cause of declining numbers of Jews in the US.  Economic success usually causes increase in population. The opposite is unfolding in the US. 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 12:53 | 1201085 JR
JR's picture

This classic defense of Jewish success, used over and over as criticism of Jewish arrogance and tyranny in the market place grows, misses the elephant in the room.  That elephant is the methods used by Jewish groups to eliminate competition.

Eliminating competitors was the central goal in the establishment of the Federal Reserve; by cornering the market on capital, investment banks could initiate businesses and destroy their competitors. Before long, national trusts would dominate the landscape and when political opposition opposed them, new methods of creating monopolies and eliminating competitors were devised

These days the use of capital to create businesses and destroy competitors has achieved its zenith with fiat currency able to control equity markets and regulatory agencies and all branches of the Federal government.  When national chains such as Costco emerged to wipe away the wholesale/retail restrictions of a century by a simple fake membership card, competitive businesses throughout America fell like wheat before the sickle.

The co-founders of The Home Depot, with ready access to life-giving capital, instantly used the newfound fiat dough to demand discounts for volume purchasing, destroying the small businesses on Main Street – plumbing, hardware, painting, appliances, electrical, building supplies, floor coverings, kitchens, interior design, garden supplies - the investment bank capital buying-inventory-in-quantity that enabled Home Depot to undercut prices of the local businessmen.

First, the small business owners, pushed out of a livelihood, became Home Depot employees with their expertise in the aisles; but soon, cheaper, less expensive labor replaced the expertise with amateurism.

But where was this connection to the Jews?  Easy to answer: Just look at the IPOs, stock transfers, and names and the involvement of the investment banks, Goldman, Morgan and the others, for the roots of the capital – the fiat money from the Federal Reserve giving birth to a business and death to its competitors.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 04:50 | 1202692 thames222
thames222's picture

I've always respected Jewish people for working hard, and I enjoyed one of Joel Stein's articles awhile ago that talked about how all but a handful of execs in Hollywood are Jewish, and that they should be proud of the fact that they run Hollywood.  I don't think Jewish culture will be diluted, nor their economic success through assimilation.  The young Jews I know are just as Jew-y as the older ones.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:32 | 1198897 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

I wonder how this upcoming liquidation event would affect the Hamas, Hezzbollah, Fatah pension plans.  I assume they have defined benefit plans sponsored by Iran, but they may need to convert to DC plans as, going forward, it looks like the power will only be flowing one way.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:55 | 1199078 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

LOL^2 @ Canucklehead's post!  This was a slam right?  I mean if this wasn't a slam on Leo I am going to be disappointed!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1199555 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

... yeah, it was a slam.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 04:52 | 1202700 thames222
thames222's picture

Have you been following Ashram in Iraq?  Things are about to boil over if they haven't already, i havent checked in lately tho.  Oil flows west bro-ski.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:41 | 1198901 digalert
digalert's picture

I believe the whole MENA uprising is the result of globalist / world government advocates. Any countries leader failure to succumb will lead to efforts to have them removed.

see      http://www.infowars.com/lukashenko-globalists-are-preparing-to-strangle-...

Belarus' leader Lukashenko is refusing the 'one world government' bullshit and intends to fight. More power to him and fuck the NWO, it will never work.                                                                      

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:52 | 1199076 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Yes, right, lovely Lukashenko fighting to save his nation from the globalists....

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:36 | 1199541 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

That's not the point.  He's targetted because his country has a central bank not under the Globalist's control.

That and sitting on pools of oil in MENA will attract an even more robust treatment as we are witnessing today.

With an Arab Spring manipulated to purge true freedom fighters and provide cover for failed change and an installation of greater extremism like the MB as a result...if it's not Communism then the Borg hive in London will deploy another fundamentalist tool of control that they have nurtured over the decades...Islamism, Zionism, name your ism poison, they want your resources (and humans are just another resource) for exploitation on their millenial neo-feudal plantation.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:58 | 1199575 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

You know what the doctor said... "it's only been a short time since your accident and you should let your head injury heal.  Do not place yourself in an environment where you get excited as your cognitive abilities are somewhat suspect." 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:31 | 1202156 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

The best slave is a patsy who thinks he’s the master.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:43 | 1198903 Muir
Muir's picture

"Mittelspiel" really?

My we are sophisticated this morning.

So, how many looked up the word besides me?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 13:31 | 1199307 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

since we know that tyler is a synchopated sophisticate and a borderline sychophantic synchopath, please be advised that he slyly avoids the magister ludi spelling in his spielling.  could he have meant "mittlespiel"?  yes, i think so.  this would give onerous onus to its contrast w/ "endspiel".  however, if you prefer the given mittelspeil, and you looked it up, too, then what the hell, go for it, Muir!  i'm not gonna take on tyler and you with that avatar rack doing that, too! 

but:  given the context:  Is The Play For Iran's Nukes The Endgame Of Ongoing MENA Violence?  

well, slewie will be slewie, tooie!

personally, i really liked tyler's CIA involvement = flipflops on the ground.  tyler has pretty damned good ears, himself!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:52 | 1199348 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"Das Mittelspiel" is the 4th painting down, here: 

Elana Hagler : Painting Perceptions

either way, this 2007 wonderful oil on linen sez it well, indeed!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 10:48 | 1198912 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Why Obam took vacation after vacation? because the only thing left in his agenda is "Iran War", he is waiting for right moment but he will finish by the end of his 1st term.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:27 | 1198999 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys are over analyzing.

Russia pumps 10.2 million barrels per day, the world's number 1 producer.  They are post Peak, their peak having been reached about 30 yrs ago.  They are making shallow the descent slope via 6,000, yes thousand, new wells drilled each year.  

The Saudis are now drilling offshore and their Manifa field is to start ramping up from zero in about 3 years.  It is down 2 miles and under the Red Sea.  THAT should tell you something about their level of desperation.

Point being, within a year or two, their onshore fields that are dying and whose production stays up via more frantic drilling will become less and less a factor.  No one would care about those people killing themselves if they didn't have oil.

No, not gold.  No, not banking.  Oil.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 11:46 | 1199046 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Um, yeah but some guy here says there's plenty of oil...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:53 | 1200106 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Plenty of oil due to exponential increase in the number of wells. But exponential growth never ends well...The falloff is going to be a bitch.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 12:18 | 1199140 JR
JR's picture

This is the year that the Middle East becomes the most critical foreign policy question for every nation in the world: all roads now lead to the final confrontation in the region.

First, there’s the growing consensus for a Palestinian state to be dealt with by the U.N. General Assembly where the United States does not have veto power.  And there’s the rising resistance to Israel from Egypt’s new resolve: only this week El Baradei, the former chief U.N. nuclear inspector and a possible presidential candidate in Egypt, “suggests in a new memoir that Bush Administration officials should face international criminal investigation for the ‘shame of a needless war’ in Iraq.

“The Nobel winning Egyptian accuses U.S. leaders of ‘grotesque distortion’ in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion, when then President George W. Bush and his lieutenants claimed Iraq possessed doomsday weapons despite contrary evidence collected by El Baradei and other arms inspectors.” (San Francisco Chronicle April 23)

IE: The planted lie.

Second, there are the live actions in Libya, Syria, and now protests in Lebanon with obvious CIA involvement.

And third, there is the growing weariness of the world with Israel’s belligerence as an occupying power and near total leverage control of the U.S. political system.

Here’s Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst:

“By nature and precedence, foreign military occupation is temporary. Colonialism on the other hand, and more precisely civilian colonization, is a socio-political system of ruling over another people.
 
“Since its inception at the end of the 19th century, Zionism preached self-determination for the Jewish people in ‘their’ homeland. In reality, Israel has directly or indirectly driven Palestinians out of their homeland, confiscated their properties, rejected their right to return to their homeland despite UN resolutions, and occupied and colonized the rest of their homeland for the last four decades…

“Israel and its various Zionist organizations have built over 600 towns, villages and other form of settlements for the Jews, but none for the Palestinians  not even those it considers part of its own citizens, who make up almost one-fifth of its population….

“Like other dictatorships it boasts of sacrificing for peace  demonizes its detractors and oppositions, and justifies any wrong-doing on the basis of national security, order and stability…

“Separated by hundreds of checkpoints, 'security' walls and fences, and policed by British/American trained Palestinian forces under the supervision of Israel military and security services, Palestinians today live under multiple levels of military dictatorship and a police state.” 

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/201142114189933416....

So like a lion trapped in a cave, Likud and its U.S. patron are running out of options.  This time, their manufactured crisis will fail in the arena of world opinion. As Zero Hedge says: “[O]ne wonders just how staged this latest ‘revolution’ truly is.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:01 | 1199578 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

After Hadrian wiped Judea from the face of the earth, he renamed the area Palestinia and Syria.  Palestinia and Syria are living on borrowed lands, and on borrowed time.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:26 | 1199620 JR
JR's picture

And that was 135 Anno Domini, in The Year of Our Lord - 1,876 years ago. That, my friend, is how long Palestinians have lived on Palestinian land.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 17:54 | 1199782 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

So you are saying the land previously known as Judea was given to the Palestinians by the Dirty Dealing Romans (known as Neo-Greeks) after being stolen from the Jews?  I think there are many Jewish lawyers out there with experience dealing with these matters as they relate to Indian lands in North America.

In Canada, the right to land can only be expunged with an adherence to treaty.  At present, 150% of British Columbia is claimed by First Nations.  As Canada leads the world in public policy issues (such as defined benefit pension plans) our opinions hold sway over this matter.

As some are ought to say... step aside and let the public sector experts deal with this matter.  If the Palestinians do not have a treaty with the Jews showing ownership of these lands, they clearly are not Palestinian lands.  It is acknowledged that Hadrian had not completed the proper paperwork registering the change of land ownership in the globaly accepted land titles office (known as the United Nations).  As a result, there was always a claim by the Jews to these homelands and this error was corrected after World War II. The lands were properly registered as the Jewish Homelands, now known as Israel.

The Palestinians are Semites who actually should be settled somewhere east and south of where they presently reside.  In short, the Palestinians are in the wrong place.  Their education system is flawed as they have claimed lands which are not actually theirs.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 18:18 | 1199827 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

Breathtaking hasbara from you, Jew.  I am sure you will be the envy of your hasbara call center for this post today.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 22:04 | 1200193 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

So you are a newbie here, been a member for a few weeks.

Sit back, enjoy the give-and-take and get an education.

Don't take things too seriously.  The 21st century is Israel's.  Democracy is blooming in the Middle East.  Good Muslims will sweep out the bad Muslims.  I think everyone can live in harmony once we have the Muslim reformation.

A little off topic, are you a fellow Lemko?

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 01:57 | 1200371 I dont belong here
I dont belong here's picture

Democracy is blooming in the Middle East. HA! Give me a friggin break, you are sucking down the spoon fed garbage from the MSM hook, line and sinker. Man I love mixing metaphors...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:45 | 1199988 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I've got some news for you chum. Most zionists are less ethnically 'jewish' then the palestinians they drove off their land.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:30 | 1200072 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Don't forget that little war in 1948 started by the Arabs and supported by the British. The Jews started their country in a most unusual way: they bought the land. Until wars put an end to that sort of thing.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1200717 Logman
Logman's picture

So by your rationale Irish have rights to France since they were forced out by the Romans (Celts fled to England and Spain).  Over time peoples are displaced by geopolitical events that get lost in time.  Most of the Jews that populated Palestine after 1947 were not even Jews from Judea (real Semitic people - the Sephardic Jews), they are Ashkenazic Jews, a Turkic people from Khazaria who converted to Judaism in the 10th century.

http://www.khazaria.com/images/khazaria.gif

Ashkenazic Jews make up 80% of Israeli Jews and have no "divine right" to the land of Israel anyhow.  The 20% are related to a people that lived there 2,000 years ago.  The state of Israel should have been set up up in Kazakhstan, since that is where the Israelis mostly come from.

Why do Palestinians need to show proof of ownership of a land they have lived on for almost 2,000 years?  Is that what the pilgrims did in the 1600s?  Hey strange Indian, do you have a treaty with the cavemen who walked these lands 20,000 years ago to shoof proof of ownership?  No?  Okay, we'll have that then.

What if 5 million North American Indians lived in Japn and after a World War II that the Japanese won, they settled the 5 million Indians back in America, displacing millions of Americans, slowly taking over the whole country over the next few decades and ruling the country with an iron fist where the American population had no rights.  Do you think Americans would be pissed?  Do you think they would claim some sort of right to the land as they had been there a while?  And we are only talking a few hundred years since the "entitled" Indians came back home.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 12:24 | 1199155 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

It is very disingenuous of Zero Hedge and Tyler to use the word "Nukes" in the title of this post, as it implies nuclear weapons when the actually blog is talking about Iran's nuclear power plants.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 04:48 | 1202696 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

kind of, but not really.  nuclear is nuclear bro, it's all way too serious to handle.  and so is Iran, the Persia of old is coming back to smite the heathens of the West!  lol

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 13:19 | 1199295 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

I disagree somewhat. Without the strong help from Arab states, Palestinians won't go for the third intifada or too violent of confrontation. With the somewhat limited ability of the US to help and limited political support from the rest of the world, Israel will doubtfully exercise their military might. (Bad for the economy & given the uncertainty around them, would be stupid to strain their military resources.)

So despite the surealistic sound of it, finally maybe the two sides will be able to sit and talk some sense into each other. 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 13:20 | 1199297 KillTheFed
KillTheFed's picture

All of the MENA activity is all a precursor to an invasion of Iran.  The event that triggers our (or Israel's or the UN's) bombing (and subsequent invasion) is being developed so the common man will support another imperialistic war.  Next year, going into the election, is a likely time for an event (or ealy 2013).  Just look at the world map- oil rich Iran (with its state-owned central bank) is sandwiched between the occupied states of Iraq and Afganistan.  All the bankers need is to goad Iran into a fight in the region or the so-called nuclear weapon 'threat'.  Can't have those Iranians transacting oil in gold and not dollars, can we?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 13:33 | 1199322 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Lets get the point here. When they talk sense it will be just that. Both sides are flush for ideological interests only. If more could understand when you pull the Wolf's tail you will meet the other end. This issue started even before the issue the Balfour declaration.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 13:34 | 1199331 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

Invading and occupying Iran will just speed up the bankruptcy of the US. Iran has a large paramilitary just in case for an invasion that would give hell to the occupier. The war on Iraq was a failure. Once we leave that nation Iraq will dissolve into chaos. Afghanistan is called the graveyard of empires for a reason. War with Iran would be bloody conventionally. Yes we can decimate Iran conventionally but asymmetrical warfare is our weakness. Where would be the launching point for an Iranian invasion? Turkey? No they would not. Iraq? The shiites will just attack our rear. Afghanistan? The taliban will do the same.
Second occupying Iran would take at least 750,000-970,000 troops. Iran has active military personnel of 545,00. Reserves of 350,000. However their irregular forces is 11,390,000! They have enough men and woman to engage guerrilla war for ever. The Taliban has a force of 100,000 and they are giving us trouble. Now couple the fact of 11.4 million insurgents is the geography. It is heavily mountainous,large areas,and multiple cities.So the conventional battle will be a lititle challenging but the guerrilla war that will follow will be the Peninsular War and Vietnam war times 10,000. This would bankrupt our already dying economy and would end in our defeat. So yeah a war with Iran is not happening. I forecast a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Iraq in 5-10 years from now. But a US war with Iran is not happening. I do not understand why people think we will invade Iran. Invading Iran would be America's Adrianople. An Iranian invasion or war is not happening.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 14:27 | 1199384 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3LryW47B_M&feature=related

Math so plan your decentralization project.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 14:16 | 1199412 JR
JR's picture

You make an excellent case. 

Discussing war and Iran involves the concept of total war, whereby an invader of Iran would face resistance of the total people; unlike a divided Iraq of 24 million, Iran’s united 70+ million would ignite world war.  It is foolish, as you say, to discuss a land war or occupation of Iran.

In my view, the war talk, the constant accusations of terrorism against Middle Eastern groups, the planted evidence for hostilities, the fake weapons danger from Iraq, can generally be traced to the offensive program of the State of Israel and its neocon backup in America.

Surely Israel has proven its unwillingness to discuss realistically any form of peace.  The relentless drive for settlements on Palestian land underscores the need for constant friction to prevent a Palestinian state.

Professor Ben-zion Netanyahu, no less, says his son does not support a Palestinian state. The elder Netanyahu claims that the Prime Minister told him he has deliberately placed impossible conditions before the Palestinians so there can be no Palestinian state.

Here is the interview whereby when asked if his son had changed his position concerning a Palestinian state, the 100 year-old historian answers unequivocally:

"He does not support. He supports such conditions that they (the Arabs) will never accept it. That is what I heard from him. I didn’t propose these conditions, he did. They will never accept these conditions. Not one of them."

Asked about his own personal opinion regarding a Palestinian state, the senior Netanyahu stated:

Herzl and Nordau (fathers of the Zionist movement) did not labor to create a Palestinian state. This land is Jewish land and not a land for the Arabs. There is no place here for Arabs, and there won’t be a place here for the Arabs. They will never agree to the conditions.”

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:15 | 1199435 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Iranians claim Persian and Iranian are the same people. That is entirely wrong. Persians and Iranians are entirely different people. I will explain the difference between the two.

Persians are not a homogenous group and Persian is not a race. Natives of Iran have different origin. Persians are related in terms of culture, language, Zoarastrian religion, and history of ancient Persia. In anthropology Persians are defined as either Cromagnid with native origin or Nordic with Aryan origin (Iran: %35 Persian).

Iranians are Azeri Turks who are a major ethnic group in Iran. Iranian is a name adopted in 18 century by Azeri Turks from European books. Iran was called Khorasan for 1000 years. Iranians originate from Oghuz Turks. Iranians are defined as dinaric alpine (Iran: 40% Azeri). Currently Iranians control the regime in Tehran. Iranians/Azeri are recent migrants to Iran since 14 century.

Which Wolf? We see how the Kurds fared. Now mission creep may or may not happen in other areas. We know idealogues are a norm left to right. Villages anywhere want to be left alone to raise a Family.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/07/israeli-school-bus-gaza-missile

Amazed I am on restraint to date.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMoZ3ThW6x0&feature=related

It is all over Terra

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:22 | 1199515 JR
JR's picture

The divisions in Iran are largely the creation of Israeli and White House propaganda.  Make no mistake, an air attack or a land invasion of Iran would unite a total people against the aggressor.  They know who Israel is and they know who the United States is. And they are not two-legged sheeple.

The basic reality of power politics is this: who is going to control your life – you or your enemy?  If you want a picture of life controlled by an enemy, live a day with a Palestinian and his family.

From Planned US Israeli Attack on Iran: Will There Be a War Against Iran? By Michel Chossudovsky | Global Research May 14, 2008

Quote:

A war on Iran has been envisaged since the mid-1990s as part of a strategic "sequencing" of theater operations. During the Clinton administration, US Central Command (USCENTCOM) had formulated "in war theater plans" to invade first Iraq and then Iran:

"The broad national security interests and objectives expressed in the President's National Security Strategy (NSS) and the Chairman's National Military Strategy (NMS) form the foundation of the United States Central Command's theater strategy. The NSS directs implementation of a strategy of dual containment of the rogue states of Iraq and Iran as long as those states pose a threat to U.S. interests, to other states in the region, and to their own citizens. Dual containment is designed to maintain the balance of power in the region without depending on either Iraq or Iran. USCENTCOM's theater strategy is interest-based and threat-focused. The purpose of U.S. engagement, as espoused in the NSS, is to protect the United States' vital interest in the region - uninterrupted, secure U.S./Allied access to Gulf oil." 

(USCENTCOM, http://www.milnet.com/milnet/pentagon/centcom/chap1/stratgic.htm#USPolicy , emphasis  added)

Consistent with CENTCOM's 1995 "sequencing", the plans to target Iran were activated under TIRANNT (Theater Iran Near Term) in the immediate wake of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. TIRANNT consisted in a model scenario type analysis of a theater war directed against Iran. The analysis, which involved senior military and intelligence experts, consisted in examining different theater scenarios.

"The US army, navy, air force and marines have all prepared battle plans and spent four years building bases and training for "Operation Iranian Freedom.” Admiral Fallon, the new head of US Central Command [resigned in March 2008], has inherited computerized plans under the name TIRANNT (Theatre Iran Near Term)." (New Statesman, 19 Feb 2007)

The following text (in annex) entitled Planned US Israeli Attack on Iran was published three years ago by Global Research in May 2005. It outlines the earlier phase of US-Israel war preparations in relation to Iran. 

(See http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO505A.html)

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8861

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:13 | 1199602 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

JR

Will read it. Deep inside it is the Dead Hand from Able Archer. Also remember how much yellow cake moved to  adults. Older maxims still apply.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:33 | 1199531 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the ideal situation is to have a persian wife and an iranian mistress. That way one is totally son of Cyrus...or whoever created that place in the first place.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:54 | 1199670 JR
JR's picture

That's right. Categorize them, divide, label, ridicule and demonize then; then you can kill them or occupy their countries – as Israel has occupied not only Palestine but America by claiming that neither peoples had a fundamental claim to their land.  It was the claim of Jewish groups that America’s immigration laws were racist that led to the 1965 Immigration Act - favoring primarily Third World entry into the U.S – until today, California's 37,303,161 population, for example, is only 41 percent white.

Of all the tribes in the world, the Jews are the only ones with the chutzpah to act as if their race is superior to all others, that the Zionists are born masters, not as a nation but as a race.

Abraham - the father of all nations - was from Ur, in Mesopotamia, now mostly Iraq.

As for Cyrus the Great,: “Aside from his own nation, Persia (modern Iran), Cyrus the Great also left a lasting legacy on the Jewish religion through his Edict of Restoration, where because of his policies in Babylonia, he is referred to by the people of the Jewish faith, as ‘the anointed of the Lord’ or a ‘Messiah.’[13][14]

Cyrus the Great is also well recognized for his achievements in human rights, politics, and military strategy, as well as his influence on both Eastern and Western civilizations. To date, Cyrus the Great and his historical signature define the national identity for many Iranians.[15] Cyrus and, indeed, the Achaemenid influence in the ancient world also extended as far as Athens, where many Athenians, adopted aspects of the Achaemenid Persian culture as their own, in a reciprocal cultural exchange...”  -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrus_the_Great

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:10 | 1200040 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Very good info, just one thing wrong.  If you are going to call modern day Israel Palestine, you might as well go all the way back and call it the Land of Canaan.  That is who occupied it when God gave it to the Israelites.

 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 00:08 | 1200309 JR
JR's picture

The Bible says Israel is for God’s people…but the Bible also identifies God’s people as the true believers who come from all races.  The Israeli settlers now moving into Palestinian lands that they say were promised to them by God are living a mistake…the True Israel is not a geographical area after all…and not a modern state under control of Likud. God will not be framed in such a box.

In Luke 22:29,  Jesus says:  "People will come from east and west and north and south, and will take their places at the feast in the kingdom of God. Indeed there are those who are last who will be first, and first who will be last.”

The New International Version Life Application Bible: “God’s kingdom will include people from every part of the world.  Israel’s rejection of Jesus as Messiah would not stop God’s plan.  True Israel includes all people who believe in God.  This was an important fact for Luke to stress as he was directing his Gospel to a Gentile audience…

“What matters to God is not a person’s earthly popularity, status, wealth, heritage or power, but his or her commitment to Christ…

“God’s first invitation came from Moses and the prophets; the second came from his Son.  The religious leaders accepted the first invitation.  They believed that God had called them to be his people, but they insulted God by refusing to accept his Son.  Thus, as the master of the story (in the Parable of the Great Feast) sent his servant into the streets to invite the needy to his banquet, so God sent his Son to the whole world of needy people to tell them that God’s kingdom (the new Israel) had arrived and was ready for them.”

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:16 | 1200047 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Of all the tribes in the world, the Jews are the only ones with the chutzpah to act as if their race is superior to all others

Have you looked at the list of Nobel Prize Winners. In real categories like physics and chemistry? They do seem to be hitting above their weight.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 00:16 | 1200315 JR
JR's picture

That’s nonsense, of course.  Perhaps the Nobel “prizes” for achievement are the worst example of intelligence or success in that they are notoriously connected to the unwarranted influences of university and government pressure and nepotism.  Only occasionally do they represent the achievement of a true leader in the field, IMO.

More than anything, the Nobel Prizes have reflected the western leverage of Zionists. And the prize itself is connected to the kind of research and political correctness they want to promote, such as Obama-style peace keeping.

Would you also say that the incestuous concentration of Jews in U.S. government high office means they are more heavily dedicated to public service and have an overall higher intelligence than the rest of the population?

I proclaim the Nobel Prize is awarded on political correctness, politics, and pressure by those who by cheating control government and academic centers.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:19 | 1200053 MSimon
MSimon's picture

When dealing with Peresian history one must not leave out Queen Esther. One reason why the Persian people are not as big into Jew hating as the rest of the ME.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:33 | 1199532 falak pema
falak pema's picture

.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:34 | 1199637 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

I'm surprised no one is talking about China in this context. Perhaps the most important thing is to insure that the west has complete control of China's energy supplies, and that would include Iran.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:03 | 1199585 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Look, there are good muslims and there are bad muslims.  The good muslims are your neighbours and participate in democracies like you do.  You may not always agree on points of order but the good muslims don't cut your head off...

There are many good muslims in Iran. 

Iran will get sorted out in an economical way.  Iran will have a democracy.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 07:05 | 1200475 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"Iran will have a democracy"

Poor bastards! Do they really deserve such a dismal fate?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:14 | 1200042 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Israeli bombs conveniently stopped where the Christian areas started.

It is generally considered bad form to attack one's allies. And inconvenient to boot.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 07:58 | 1200511 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Just so it's clear to ''all'', http://bible.cc/revelation/18-3.htm there is no favor for anyone that accepts the mark of the beast. Fools imagine to receive mercy buying, selling or trading, the lie. Judgment comes upon all, rich and poor, free and bond, large and small, Jew Christian Muslim etc.. It will not matter, any nation or tongue that accepts the mark of the beast and does not repent is sealed by the blood on their hand as if it is plainly written upon their forehead and they see the image in the mirror. We all must accept mercy by offering mercy or we will all suffer the penalty of a world ''found wanting'' mercy. All nations are guilty. Every person that rejects mercy, as the sustaining law and image of our Father in Christ, judgment shall come upon them. The nations are fallen, so shall the wicked not rise. 

The last generation, if possible, would see all flesh destroyed (as anyone person lives and suffers the pain of death at the end of their life time) unless the days were not cut short for the sake of the elect, as it were any battle or war won by the victor. That's just basic math without prejudice and proven over and over again thoughout history. Truth is pure and harmless, it stands fast among all hosts that are risen in agreement. Don't fall for some pathetic ''I'm a Jew'' or ''Islam is the way'' or ''Christians are all known by the Father''. If you are not standing fast and doing no harm, in agreement with the image our Father in Christ, you are not laboring the harvest and you will reap the whirlwind.

P.S. Let me drop a Bomb on you. This is the last generation, there is no doubt. Fear not, the truth is not a choice, every knee shall bow. The blind do not bare witness and shall not rise sealed in darkness. Watch! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=376DEbCx-RM

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 10:32 | 1200715 s0lspot
s0lspot's picture

2012 is full of potential excuses for "just a quickie behind the counter" war(s) :

 

-US presidential elections

-French presidential elections

-Iranian Parliamentary elections

-Russian presidential elections

-Indian presidential elections

-Venezuelian presidential elections

-Turkish presidential elections

-Spanish & Mexican presidential elections (just kidding! dem don't matter !)

 

Let's hope for the best & prepare for the worst ; i really hope Israel & America don't mess with Iran : this time the world will not tolerate it and neither will I. We need peace, stability, entente cordiale & a hell of a lot of material and intellectual global resources to prepare for our post megacorpgov next evolutionary stage...

 

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 04:47 | 1202687 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

My friend in Iran was telling me that the people are talking war...something big is going to go down before the end of this year, and Iran's going to unleash some hell.  trust.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

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