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Podcasting The Charts That Matter Next Week (With A Focus On The S&P 500 H&S Formation)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This week, instead of presenting John Noyce's FX charts "that matter next week" and providing our own interpretation of what one of the few credible technicians left out there is trying to imply, we will leave it up to him to do so. Below find the full slide pack of key FX charts together with other key observations on the S&P, as noted by Noyce, "The H&S top which completed last Thursday has a target of 1,245, which is very close to the converged 200-dma and interim low from March; 1,251-1,249", as well as his outlook on the EuroStoxx600 and 50, the IBEX, Spanish 10 year yields, the SHCOMP, and most importantly vol, which continues to be held back by resistance. Should the VIX break out over 20, watch out below.

The complete podcast.

John Noyce June 9 by user5452365

And the full report:

CHTMNW 6-9-2011

 

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Sun, 06/12/2011 - 13:02 | 1363135 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

I'd venture to guess we may have a few sell stops between 1245 and 1250

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 13:40 | 1363191 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Yup, that was definitely the real resistance on the way up; this week could shake out a lot of that.

Black Friday below 1200, on the real.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 13:23 | 1363157 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

Forget the technical mumbo jumbo, it's actually setting up for a rally this week. All the news reports are saying just how awful this week's data will be. It's the typical setting the bar low crap. Get ready for a lot of "beat expectations" celebrating.  It also comes down to whether the Bernank wants stock or bond prices to go up. Ben probably thinks bond prices have risen enough (and Bill Gross has been properly chastised). This week, it's time to let a bit of air out of the bond market, and bubble up stocks.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 14:36 | 1363274 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

All technicals are a resolved by those  interns pressing the ass button on the holy keypad

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:12 | 1363647 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Agreed sure u wanna be short for the last 20 handles after 7 out of 8 sessions down and Bam Bam wanting to sprinkle fairy dust on shovel ready projects and such....

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 13:32 | 1363178 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Wow, this is terrific. This changed my attitude toward what to expect in the morning.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 13:52 | 1363216 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Is there anyway you can do more of these? This was one of the best presentations I've heard in a long time. People crap all over GS all the time (I do to), but when it comes to this kind of analysis, no one holds a candle to them. This was terrific, and if I were paying mega-$$$ to GS for updates, I would feel with this one that I got my money's worth.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:16 | 1363502 fswalker
fswalker's picture

+1. One of the best cross market analysis from GS in a very long time. Excellent interpretation of technicals without getting too complex thus unmanageable.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:32 | 1363525 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Fuck you both. Squid lovers. The only good squid is a dead squid, char broiled and dipped in wasabi.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:19 | 1363657 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Deep fried in vegetable oil with Sambala Oelek and Garlic should get the taste buds cranking. Analysis of this standard deserves recognition regardless of its source.  Full cred goes to John Noyce, its a shame he's reping GS though.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 14:43 | 1363291 bogey4
bogey4's picture

The next time I see a h&s top work will be the first. 

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:09 | 1363565 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

I agree completely. 

Not to mention the one they point out in this report isn't even a textbook one because the right shoulder is higher.  Maybe in that case, it will work.

But you're right, for the past two years, every head and shoulders has wound up a bullish pattern.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:25 | 1363671 Orly
Orly's picture

I know.  I don't get it, either.

This pattern in no way resembles a head and shoulders pattern and I am about yay tired of people pulling out and stretching the patterns so far askew that it doesn't even make sense.

For what it's worth, this is not a head and shoulders pattern.  This is:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

The two shoulders should be nearly identical in breadth and length, as well as the same "height" from the base.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:26 | 1363673 fswalker
fswalker's picture

H&S topping completition: EUR/USD stop-hunt move back to post 1.46 area. Check 4hr  chart or 30 min for further clarity. Patterns dont mean shit unless you're paying close attention to underlying market forces. 

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:24 | 1363678 Orly
Orly's picture

Not going to happen.  EURUSD will move to 1.37 within three weeks.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:31 | 1363689 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Think you've missed the point. The move back up to post 1.46 WAS the stop-hunt. Check and see how it completed. A picture perfect H&S pattern.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:36 | 1363697 Orly
Orly's picture

Oh, ok.  Gotcha.

Yeppers, it was pretty close to picture-perfect, alright.

Yes.  Now, that is a head and shoulders.  What the SPX is doing now is far, far too skewed to be any pattern at all.  Looks to be running into a tough slog over the next few days, however, mired in support.  If it blows through 1250 with any force...

Well, who knows, eh?

Best of luck trading!

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 20:04 | 1363743 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Its not skewed at all. A few hints as to why this pattern should be given validity. It completed the H&S pattern on 23 May when it broke bellow its previous low (call it right shoulder if you may). As the markets are driven by the big boys pay close attention to what followed. A stop-hunt back up to the top of its previous high which is where a fair chunk of stops (buy orders) were swallowed. The proceeding force of the down-move confirms the stop-hunt as the pros dont like to hang around these levels for too long, being liquidity providers also ;)

Best of luck with your trading and keep an eye out for these off-moves as they provide the best risk-reward opportunities.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 14:44 | 1363292 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

News flow on this weekend's news is utterly horrific.  Pawlenty talking about how the Obama economy is a "disaster" and that his economic plan was a "total failure".

Odds are high we get a washout early in the week then a bounce to close green on the week, maybe even a rally back up to the 50-day.

But the overall trend is now down unless the PPT pulls a miracle and announces a huge tax cut or something.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:28 | 1363437 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Can't wait to hear Pawlenty's "Plan".

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 20:09 | 1363749 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

LOL.  Much "spitting into the wind" by all "MSM favored" candidates between now and Nov. 2012.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:41 | 1363459 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Looking for this too.  Transports don't look like they found a S/T bottom but, like you infer, that could come anytime with a V rather than a U bottom.

T-PAW? Boring. Take your 5% nonsense T-PAW and shove it. I want details not fox tails. 

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:17 | 1363508 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

I'm convinced that robo is actually one of the Tylers. Bravo on creating the super troll.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 14:55 | 1363306 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Fifty percent chance any forcast is right, 100% chance that what happens will be interpreted as having been forecast.  Just reading enterails. Markets totally manipulated and TA meaningless.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:36 | 1363534 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

"Markets totally manipulated and TA meaningless."

Everything is meaningless
in this market.

Madoff was predicting a
complete meltdown
before his scheme
was discovered by anyone.

He was just a few years off.

~O~

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:46 | 1363540 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

This analysis aint worth shit.  The FED is going to get everyone leaning one way - like they've done in the past - everyone will think that this is the big meltdown and then they'll run the futures and push the rod right up the arse of the shorts - this goes on and on and on.  Eventually it will break the balls of the shorts and they'll all lean long and then the FED will  sell into the strength.  You can't beat these fucks. They've got to much capital.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:31 | 1363692 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

Re EURUSD:  nowhere in the annals of Elliott wave analysis/Fibonacci-ratio application is there any reference to 76.4% as a valid retracement level.

Re S&P Index:  purported "head and shoulders" pattern is not above the February high.  If a top reversal pattern is forming here, then one must consider all of the price work since the February top. 

GS pays this guy?  For this kind of analysis?

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:44 | 1363710 Orly
Orly's picture

Seventy-six point four seems to be Goldman's "proprietary" Fibonacci level.  Everyone uses it at Goldman because I have seen it in all their charts.  I first noticed it about two years ago and it does seem to work.

I like to use it in a combination of 76.4% and the standard 78.6% retracement levels.  This "double-buffer" area is a really strong range of resistance and/or support.

Try it on your charts.  You'll see what I mean.

:D

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:47 | 1363718 Orly
Orly's picture

The GBPCHF pair is making a long-term bullish Gartley pattern on the Weekly chart, as the USDCHF pair did last week.  Wait for an inside bar on the Daily before getting long.

It seems that the Swissie is due to give some back...maybe a lot.

:D

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 21:04 | 1363814 Ted K
Ted K's picture

Why do I get the strange sensation that some relationship between Noyce and Wiki is going to give me rectal bleeding????  Thanks anyway, I'm one of the few who has endurance to read beyond a fucking 3 sentence post before watching fat chicks dance on TV. Thanks though

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