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Podcasting The Charts That Matter Next Week: A Technical Look At The European Breakdown

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Love or hate charts, they continue to be a key signal for that all dominant (and possibly only remaining) market player: Johnny 5. As is tradition, there are few better chartists than Goldman's John Noyce, who continues to go against the Thomas Stolper trend and target nf 1.55 on the EURUSD, and once again sees nothing but famine, frogs and pestilence in Europe's immediate future... as confirmed by 76.4 retraces, 20 big figure spreads from fair value, a Spanish 10 year which has finally broken out from its triangle resistance level of 5.53%, and not to mention the trendline breach of the IBEX. Making things worse are the ongoing ugly developments in the S&P and the SHCOMP, some curious development in the USDMYR (502 consecutive closes below the 200 DMA), which superimposes very curious with the EURSEK, some other curious developments in peripheral spreads, and lastly, the commodity complex, which is also testing its own triangle formation, although unlike the Spanish 10 Year, from the upside.

But instead of us spoiling the fun with meaningless commentary and gibberish, here it is from the horse's mouth:

CTMNW 17-06-11 by user5452365

And the full presentation.

CTMNW 17-06-11

 

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Sun, 06/19/2011 - 10:37 | 1382355 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bernanke is going to have to appear on daytime TeeVee wearing a dynamite vest, match stick in his shoe, water bottle in his left suit pocket, while holding a bottle of shampoo.

I can hear it now. Bernank will tell the US Congress critters they have 15 minutes to raise the debt ceiling or he'll commit Jihad on the US market.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 10:48 | 1382368 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Toss in a C-4 suppository, and you've sold me.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:07 | 1382398 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

SEGA network "hacked". Millions of users data stolen.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sega-database-hacked-personal-informati...

 

Next database to be "hacked": Facebook

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:01 | 1382412 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

"Print bitchez print" the birth cry of any self respecting IMF thief.

PIIGS...Debt slavery or default, which is it?

 

Banksters, we know their ambitions. People of PIIGS what are your ambitions debt slave or default to save yourself? A question in which the U.S. may want to ask themselves as well.

 

 

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:26 | 1382441 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Don't fall for the propaganda. As a adolescent, I recall the countless MSM stories on wallet robberies. Back then, having a bank card was deemed to be improved security over carrying a wallet full of cash. Now they have you hooked on the cards. What do you think is the next step to condition you for the next level of safety? I'll give you a hint.

Future Banking

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:54 | 1382611 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Future Banking, a hackers paradise, especially if Microsoft furnishes the code.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:12 | 1382642 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Don't worry.  The government will take care of that problem by making programming illegal.

Millenium copyright has removed the right to program from large portions of entertainment.

Goverment can solve any problem by regulating it to death.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:47 | 1382476 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Technicals are shit. WTF do technicals actually have to do with this market at this PIT (point in time). If you are jacking off to a one to five minute chart then I suppose 'technical', might get confused with 'testicles'?

 

Noyce is a smart guy. Smart at knowing shit that doesn't really matter. He is great at making noise. Blah, Blah, Blah.

I don't get the profound lack of efficiency as presented by guys like Noyce. State the obvious and get paid stupid money?

If our Country can make it then it seems to me that we might only do so by calling out guys like Noyce as WAY over compensated players. IT DOES NOT REQUIRE A 'STATUS CARD' to figure this shit out.

Misallocation of capital is a far more deep place to go than I've previously considered.

Human spirit, LIBERTY, individuals allowed to be who they are, who they can and should be...BLAH, BLAH, BLAH?

Yes, I'm crazy. So are you. We all are so get over it and live.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1382358 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

There's but one solution for the Oligarchs:

Printing Presses of the World ... Unite!!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 10:55 | 1382377 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

There's another solution. Like Mr. McCain sang:  "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran".

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:46 | 1382483 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

How brilliant.

Idiot.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:07 | 1382542 JR
JR's picture

They do not toil, neither do they spin. They print... free money for the oligarchs.

International:  Transcending national boundaries.

Monetary: The mechanisms by which money is supplied and circulates in the economy.

Fund:  A sum of money made available for a particular purpose.

 “What fresh hell is this?” – Dorothy Parker

Well, Dorothy:

 “In September of 2009…the IMF made the SDR fully convertible.  The IMF also doubled the amount of SDRs in circulation.  Last month the IMF announced that it had a plan to use the SDR as the world’s reserve currency and is suggesting that they print trillions of dollars worth within the next few years.” – ITM Trading, Inc. (03/17/11)

“Since 2004, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS-an intergovernmental organization of central banks) has published its accounts in terms of Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, replacing the Gold Franc as the bank's unit of account.” Wikipeida

The BIS "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks."[2] It is not accountable to any national government…

“The BIS (fathered in 1930 by Montagu Norman, Jewish international financier who was then-Governor of the Rothschild Bank of England)  was originally owned by both governments and private individuals… the BIS has forcibly bought back all shares held by private investors, and is now wholly owned by its member central banks.”

Put succinctly by banker Sir Josiah Stamp: “The Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again.”

(thanks for the tongue-in-cheek, ITY; it's beginning to dawn on me, big time, what we have wrought...)

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:36 | 1382889 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Slide 5 "Au Upate".

I wonder what ectoplasmic forces conspired to produce that typo.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:57 | 1382910 JR
JR's picture

It's hard to fool Mother Nature.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1382383 chartcruzer
chartcruzer's picture

The euro threw a long term sell this week

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218921789]&disp=P

the dollar a buy

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218820698]&disp=P

EU equities (via the ETF) a sell

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218732180]&disp=P

however the weaker of the international sectors is latin america rather then europe (go figure?)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s235660895]&disp=P

latin america has been on a sell for a bit now (which included a major trendline break)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218732904]&disp=P

 long live printing presses and accounting fraud.   Consider in shellac on top of the credit bubble.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:05 | 1382404 Superslam
Superslam's picture

Don't listen to this report. Sell EUR/SEK tonight if you haven't already.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:10 | 1382413 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

I agree with his contention that it's going to be very bouncey from the ES 1270 area down to 1215 or so, and that the rise last week in the VIX suggests that we aren't going to see any more of these waterfall collapses. And I think it's quite unlikely that we go below 1200, which tells me that Bernanke will not be scared shitless enough to moot a QE3.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:16 | 1382421 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

John Noyce is terrific. GSatan's are good at hiring the best talent to do their charting and analysis. The devil can always employ the best lawyers and statisticians.

 

I looked forward to this podcast and charts all week. I can go through the charts at 2 - 3 times the speed with the podcast than if I try to do it just by reading them.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:21 | 1382435 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Thanks for the report. really appreciate it.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:10 | 1382538 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Short EVERYTHING!...and go fishing!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:23 | 1382661 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Johnny 5 needs to UPDATE HIS CHARTS!!!!

His IBEX chart is slightly dated.

Here's an up-to-date and thorough chart analysis that he might want to study: http://imageshack.us/f/825/ibexweekly170611.jpg/

But please someone please send him a quick note and tell him that IT WOULD HELP TO HAVE UP-TO-DATE DATA.

Here are some more European indices with what I believe to be the most important technicals to presently keep in mind. http://imageshack.us/f/862/europeweekly170611.jpg/

Oh, and on those charts I posted (with up-to-date data BTW - did I mention that already?) here's my summary analysis:

we are at a critical pivot which should be an intermediate term floor for a sustained rally, which, if to the contrary, were violated to the downside, could lead to a 15% or greater rapid decline. Critical pivot indeed.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 18:39 | 1383146 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

oh puhleeeeze. when i see any chart coming out of goldie the first thing i ask myself is was this photoshoped, altered, mislabelled, outdated, falsified, or subpoened?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:27 | 1382667 surfersd
surfersd's picture


Tyler, do you have the statistics that show how much greek ( and for that matter spanish-portugal-ireland ) debt is held by the Euro banks? I can't find the great chart in the NYT which shows the cross holdings, this article  http://www.economist.com/node/18560535?fsrc=rss   talks about the smaller German banks and the Corporate risk from default. 

How much capital do these banks need to cover a default? Is the ECB going to step in like the FED and rescue them by printing Euros? How much greek debt does the FED have vis-a-vie the IMF? Have to wait to find out what is in the other Asset category I guess.

 It does seem impossible for these governments to cut and and or grow their way back to a a balanced budget so that they can start to actually restructure their debt.

I guess my question is do these banks have enough Tier 1 capital to absorb loses on their sovereign debt portfolios? I believe the answer is no, just trying to get some more definitive answers. 0 hedge for 1yr and 43 weeks. Thxs

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:03 | 1382732 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Go to contributors at the top of the page.

Seek reggie middleton.

Find answer.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:41 | 1382793 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Sorry for the pet peeve, but man, I had to turn off the audio clip...that dude smacking his lips was driving me f'in nuts!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:49 | 1382811 falak pema
falak pema's picture

6 billion lost in Iraq, a drop in US bucket of fake fiat money...gone up in hot air. We need to find out what other black holes will appear in govt. spending...

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:58 | 1383297 Raphio
Raphio's picture

6 billion is starting to sound like a best case scenario, it looks like it may be 18 billion missing

http://english.aljazeera.net/

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:12 | 1383321 Raphio
Raphio's picture

6 billion is starting to sound like a best case scenario, it looks like it may be 18 billion missing

http://english.aljazeera.net/

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 04:07 | 1384261 lucylary
lucylary's picture

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