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POMO Before And After: A Visual Comparison
If there is one reason why the market has not sold off far more broadly today, it is that traders are currently gearing up in anticipation for the upcoming brand new POMO regime, which will start in earnest tomorrow and will continue for the next 6 months. And for those who would like to see just how much greater of an impact the next 20 trading days' POMO will have compared to the old QE Lite POMO regime, John Lohman has prepared the following two charts. To wit: the median size of any given POMO will be $7 billion, nearly three times as large as the old median of $2.5 billion. As for frequency: in the next 20 days we will see 19 POMOs, virtually one a day (and in some cases two per day), compared to the old POMO incidence which was roughly one every two days. In other words, it certainly appears that the Fed will not allow the GM IPO to be subject to any "market conditions."
Comparison of POMOs in last 20 with next 20 trading days:
And some statistical data on the next $105 billion worth of POMOs.
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You all realize, of course, that when the market crashes, it will be on a POMO day.
December 7 domino effect from Europe bank run?
A day which will live in infamy
Unfortunately, on Dec 7 the markets never opened due to a "software fault".
Bernanke in the study with the lead pipe.
if everyone takes euros out of the banks, wouldn't that cause it to soar under such high demand? and then conversely the dollar to drop relatively speaking. which might actually trigger a rally in the usa?
NO.
"Remember, remember, the 7th of December..."
Has a nice ring to it.
Well, who knows, but you have a point that should be at the front of everyone's mind. If you wanted to sell, what day would be the best day to do so? All trades will now be orchestrated around the all mighty pomo. all hail the POMO.
POMO...
What a great euphemism for the Fed activity of rigging markets...
As the Calif Pomo tribe owns and operates numerous Native American gambling casinos....
Hey, Jimi, I did it.
At the urging of several fellow ZHers, I've started my blog. Mainly this will allow me to post charts so that anyone can see how I form my opinions.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/
I look forward to any and all feedback. Thanks! TF
And the posts are blessedly short. Thank you. I hardly have time to keep up with ZH. I will be checking it daily.
I can't leave a comment there (wordpress & blogspot don't play nice with each other), so I'll say congrats Turd here!
Same for me...
I just wanted to say that I finally figured out what you have meant by EE! Couldn't google that.
I don't think it will crash... the crash will be on QE3.
I'm not convinced that the market will crash. It will be the dollar that crashes.
+1
...very much as happened in Germany in the period leading up to Adolf's time. As the German currency became worthless, those holding stock certificates came through it in good shape..ditto gold...not ditto bonds.
I covered all my shorts, since they were in highly over valued, speculative companies, just the place where all the POMO money will end up.Now am only holding silver miners. Personally, I would rather hold shares in a silver mining company where I am buying proven reserves at a low price.
After 45 years of investing, there is absolutely nothing I have ever seen that in any form resembles the current market...in fact, I would say experience is a handicap in trying to handle this current market. An alien from another planet might have a better chance at determining where this market is actually going to end up...they might be able to discern things better than those of us who expect certain things to happen because they have done so in the past.
So, if Bernanke announced he were an alien, I'm assuming he'd have your support?
should be at 1500 by year end
Does this explain IWF volume today and the giant 2mm plus dark pool print on what is normally a light day
No such thing as a down stock market, can't make Ben Bernanke look bad. How would it look if the stock market went down while the Fed is spending trillions, think about that.
Unfuckingbelievable!
All the POMOs you like, I liked two months ago... But now they are "bigger, better, BernankeKing"
The Fed has committed much of their remaining reserved tanks, artillery, armored troop carriers and troops to the front line battle. The opposing forces (you and I) understand that the Fed will eventually lose the war even if they win a few battles.
The sad part is that so many "players" are like cattle chasing the tail in front of them. They can't break ranks or stride for fear of being trampled by the cow behind them. So.....many of them will die a horrible death at the bottom of the cliff.
At least they'll have the satisfaction of knowing they beat the competition and got there first.
Amen, CD! AMEN!
Unfortunately, the majority of people are morons. When gas hit $4, everyone was trying to dump their SUVs. Once it bottomed out, everyone went back to buying them. Zero lessons learned.
Anyway, I jested a few weeks back about us needing daily POMO's to prevent a market decline, but we got them. I can't wait to see the next trick in Ben's book, to stave off the inevitable collapse.
Denninger's got a piece on ex-post-facto law to protect the banks from foreclosuregate. The fraud is systemic, and in political circles, ubiquitous. And it seems as we inch closer to the inevitable, more and more pigs step up to the trough.
http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=171940
I bought my SUV so that I can haul a camper, or even live in my SUV when the Hemmorhoids pop into the HVAC.
How hard would it be to organize a "seige" of the Eccles and Treasury buildings in D.C.? If people in Germany can peacefully outlast a 15K police force over nuclear waste then surely we can tie up D.C.
I've got a better solution. We just get Google Maps to "mistakenly" identify the buildings as "my" property. Then I round up a few friends and family and occupy what's obviously mine. I mean, Google Maps doesn't make mistakes. It's Google for crying out loud.
See WB7's latest post for the Google Maps fun and games and then my copmment below his post in the comment section. I seems ZeroHedge owns Fort Knox.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/missiles-costa-rican-beaches-and-silver-bars
Here come more 'airplane contrails' Im sure.
...you mean chemtrails.....
It is slow, so we'll comment by simply stating: Are all these government bureaucrats just fucking NUTS? Just taking a step back and reading this, is INSANE. Three times the size, and twice the frequency. Fed's version of Viagra. No one has stated this yet, but we've discussed internally that it wouldn't surprise us to discover one day (3-5 years from now) that the FED itself is/was teetering on bankruptcy during this crisis. And, these programs are/were all designed to save the Fed ass, as much as it is to save the bankers asses. The whole system is fucked. This is ridiculous.
PS: Sorry Tyler for the graphic language. But, this is just insane.
Fuking insane.
If you take too much of any kind of drug, it will cease to work. Uncle Ben is about to learn a lesson the hard way.
Imagine the horror if the market actually sells off on a POMO day. The ponzi realization may finally hit home.
Somehow this is what I feel will happen! Not sure why but my stomach is "telling" me to take cover!
Actually John, in our shop, we think this is plausible. The guys we network with daily are in consensus that the whole market is sitting atop a razor blade waiting nervously for the guy on their left or right to make the first move. We think risk is very high for a counter-intuitive move (lower). We believe the markets are just full of huge air pockets whereby sellers will literally find a market of no bids. The Fed is scared shitless in our opinion. They are throwing multiple hail mary passes. Problem is, no one cares anymore. No one is coming to the game anymore. We've stated regularily all year: There is NO MARKET.
I agree on all counts. I am of the opinion that things can and will unravel very quickly, and it will be unexpected by many.
My comment above was sarcastic; I should have said when, not if.
The Fed, by implementing QE 2, is expediting its own death. Very massochistic but fitting.
Well, it just means the PPT will have to step up to the plate.
Why on earth the DXY hasn't collapsed is beyond me. Who the fuck but front runners, and investors who expect to sell out to the greater fool (aka the Federal Reserve) buys those kamikaze instruments?
I agree and I am looking to deploy capital but have a difficult time just throwing caution to the wind as if there is no risk...Robert De Niro in Ronin captures this quite well:
Sam: Whenever there is any doubt, there is no doubt. That's the first thing they teach you.
Vincent: Who taught you?
Sam: I don't remember. That's the second thing they teach you.
dollar probably went up because players around the world bought way too many specifically named treasuries but each day when they can't sell them all back to the fed they dump 'em causing stress for the dollar and a surge back into stocks
This is why (as mentioned earlier), I'm going in 50% short, 50% long P/M's. I can see a case where this whole thing explodes, yet money goes into P/M instead of the dollar.
In order to accomplish that are you going to have half your safe filled with dollar bills and the other half filled with PM's?
No way. Where would I fit the .50 BMG?
The feds dual mandate, pull in greed and push risk out. Only in America.
SPY, bitchez!
UST -> PD -> FED -> $$$ -> PD -> SPY (GLD, SLV)
"UST -> PD -> FED -> $$$ -> PD -> SPY (GLD, SLV)"
= +105 billion
I understand the meaning of the chart. What I do not understand is why long Treasuries continue to sell off. Look at the chart of TLT. Why? These flows may not directly impact 30 Year Treasuries but it should indirectly impact them more than stocks so why is TLT underperforming stocks? Why is USD so strong? It is strong even against JPY. Only stocks and oil are confirming this chart.
Ben said get that stock market back in the green, don't make me look bad.
So what happens when POMO on steroids meets a crashing a Euro?
YouroFucked
+1 Liked that.
yeah, that's what makes me just a little nervous about holding silver miners. do you run to PM's, regardless of the relative value of the dollar, just because there's no such thing as a flight to safety in fiat currencies anymore? i hope so.
It will be the "leap of faith" that will destroy the dollar propped up by "faith".
What is truely sad is the tomorrow's world is very much unknown for must of us.
We bicker and debate back and forth on outcomes, crashing dollar, gov't, what ifs,... etc.
But at the end of the day, reading this blog and others, it is not hard at all to see and understand how ugly tomorrow will be. How shameful it is that the country i grew up in is going to be so hideous for my children. I am (in all seriousness) very fearful for the kind for world my kids are going to be left with.
Absolutely. I don't want to live in a world without electricity, ridiculously expensive vegetables, and soaring crime rates. But knowing and comprehending this situation does give us a chance to prepare for the sadly inevitable.
This is the definition of froth.
What are some hot POMO front-running stocks these days? AAPL ain't pulling it's weight lately. I needz me some hot n spicy levered beta front run axxxion
Where's Robo when you need him?
Buy energy stocks, I bought HAL the day news broke about some cement at $31.00. VLO has been in base building process for 2 years, I like the weekly chart in VLO. I own it at $17.16 from June 2010. When VLO breaks it will run for a while due to it's solid base. Enegry should do better with the Republicans. And you can always buy SPY,DIA on selloffs, they will hold the index up without a doubt. The indexs are quite expensive, but they always bounce back.
I'm no stock trader. Just a greenhorn.
SIL ERX EDC JJS TYH AGQ UGL GDXJ
I might take a swing with a few shares and hold for a month or so.
Of course the market will crash at some point, but I doubt it will be come during such a heavy POMO month. Yes, the Tea Party'ers are in, but are they going to crash Ben's party before December 1st? Not likely.
Stupid?
I think the market has to sell off on a POMO day. Its the only way PDs can get enough buyers in to dump all the shares they bought on the way up.
There is no way this market is going down to far, the Federal Reserve would look like a total failure. They will blow another bubble, giving Goldman JP Morgan all the free money they want. Stock index will keep going up and everyone will say the economy is going to be ok....THE FED SAVED US ALL HAHAHAHAHA Can't you here it now, I sure can.
Cramer is pumping Copper & Gold. Maybe you could buy that.
Nat gas, I like nat gas to.
Cramer said Gold to $2,000. That should get it pumped.
...glad I'm in silver....
...just where is all the copper going to be used? Housing? I really don't get copper's action.
No such thing as a down stock index, just watch.
damn sugar...damn 10% down.
What if all of the POMO Dollars go to cover all of the Mortgage Payments the Banks are not recieving as the wait to foreclose.
To give the freshly printed dollar some additional
value,they sacrifice one euro country a time.
First Greece then Ireland next Portugal.Gold
in euro can be dubble profitible,don't want
to play the forex game.Just buying small
add on in metal after pricedrops,because
of the small amounts I bought over the years
created a nice PM portfollio over the years.
Hope gouverment come to it senses one day,
but I'm not betting on it!!Keep may stash
under the radar of gouverment(taxes)
For long gold and silver where very underestimated,
think this will end soon.
Mr Market is sitting at a well put table, is eating and eating until he can no more. Mr Market stops eating but his stomach is hurting so he starts vomiting, BIG! POMO will keep coming until it's not of anyone's use anymore, this will happen very soon, "BIG VOMITING" coming at a table near yours! COVER!
Hello $50 silver in November and 1600+ Gold. Maybe over $100 silver if the shorts capitulate.
ES and ZB
Fuck POMO. Looks like we're set now for a move.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es-zb_11.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
So glad that my taxes and now my son's taxes will be used to but GM yet again. We're eating our young.
Payed 19% vat when I bought the silver
This is creazy,because silver is money.
You also pay 19% vat in U.S.A?
HELL NO
If I were you, I would find myself a nice black market silver dealer and buy there instead.
Or leave Europe. One of the two. Maybe both.
Even though GM stock is dogshit, buying into the IPO for a short term hold may be easy money.
The US could very well wind up in a double whammy. Deflation internally while the dollar continues to slide externally. So, as people lose more jobs and debt continues to spiral, food and energy prices will be skyrocketing.
Yep, no POMO and CSCO down 16% would have been a bloodbath in the indices today. As it is, gear up for the run higher. Just the way it works.
...just make sure you use reverse fundamental analysis in selecting your long positions, in other words buy what any sane investor would be shorting and you'll be helped by the POMO money.
Prosecute the Financial Terrorists.
F@CK THE FED
Who is selling during POMO? Not everyone can be buying?
So, POMO comes in tomorrow.
And GM stock IPOs soon. Guess what stock gets gunned by POMO?
But then again, we just OWNED that stupid bogus company and the FED will buy the stock to create their wealth value hologram-and the banks end up owning it.
So, theres a transfer of taxpayer equity to banking concerns-pretending to be a success.
NICE scam, Ben
Wired reporting GE will purchase 12K GM volts over the next several years. Must have been a condition for GE's bailout.
Must....resist....urge...to....trade.....must.....re...sist..
Why are'nt the insiders front running the upcoming POMO? Not a good time to be dumping hand over fist, no?
CM
...good question, but not all stocks are the prime beneficiaries of POMO, just the most over valued.
You only pay such a high reate of tax ( VAT., tax has other names in other countires) on purchases of silver in the Uk. Suggest looking to take a trip across the channel and investigating lower rates in other european countries,
delete as duplicated
From some of the proprietary things I'm looking at, looks like we don't get any kind of potential downside until after November. This was before the POMO schedule was released. Now it all makes sense.
Hunker down, watch the FED-erworks spark off until the last sparkler fizzles impotently on the ground.
I can't believe I'm seeing this happen, really.
Chart: Dollar
Channel. Up.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/dollar_2105.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
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