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POMO Comes At Huge Submitted-To-Accepted Ratio, Market Dumps
The second today's POMO ended, the market flushed. The catalyst: the announced Submitted to Accepted ratio, which came at a whopping 5.8x, far higher than both the average and median. We have long claimed that PDs will spike the S/A ratio when in need of immediate Fed liquidity, and thus any time there is a high S/A ratio, watch out below. Well, as the chart below shows, this is precisely what happened today. Furthermore, the beatdown is taking down the commodity complex as well. Is the market starting to finally realize that everything is just a house of cards? (and yes, QE3 is coming. Plan accordingly).
even more visible in gold:
In other news, after we screamed blood murder on the "Flip The Bond" scheme conducted by the Criminal Reserve, it seems someone has noticed: only $250MM of PW4 was monetized by the PDs. The bulk of the issues were in fact precisely the predicted ones: those that were trading cheapest on Morgan Stanley's spline
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Its ok, The President's Working Group on Financial Markets will free up some cash (liquidity) by leasing some of Fort Knox's tungsten reserves and fractionalizing the profits. Move along.
So, did I get it right, if the Fed monetizes the (not optimally priced) bonds predicted by ZH it's clearly theft, if they do not monetize the bonds predicted by ZH it's only because ZH noticed and theft will be be committed in the future?
Is this some sort of new libertarian logic?
Would a "monetization was optimal today for a change, but we remain skeptical and reserve judgement about future POMOs" headline really have hurt so much? :-)
How about "The monetization was optimal for a change today, and seems to be causation, not correlation, for the market dip."
Fixed up your logic for ya MCT...
You mean the latest row of disappointing corporate earnings reports have nothing to do with that wobble (what's a few hundred billion in market cap) - it must be the evil gubmint-run Fed monetizing a few billions worth of treasuries with a premium of a few ten million dollars that must be moving the markets?
Riight, if you say so! :-)
"You mean the latest row of disappointing corporate earnings reports have nothing to do with that wobble"
Maybe, but the timing of the dump is what came into question.
The earnings reports all were all at the end of POMO.
LOL
LOL, you got fooled by a so-called "Tyler price chart", didn't you?
Did it occur to you to check today's S&P 'dip' on a just slightly wider time-frame?
Something like:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=%5eGSPC&lang=en-US®ion=US&width=30...
Right, it mysteriously recovered, after the dip at 11am, which is also the close of some markets in Europe. The chart was also clipped right at the resistance level at 1291.0 - traditional bounce point for headfakes.
But yeah, it was a POMO dip!
And the push in the other direction starting at 11:30 must have been a reverse POMO? :-)
The Fed/JPM sell high, Blythe hits her puts, and then they buy low and do the whole thing over again tomorrow. And people ask me why I am pissed....
wow.cool.
But did you catch that (~11:30) fake print on the Q up to 59.96?
Fed put, bitchez
Yep the greenspan put has been exercised.
POMO will keep the first leg down in equities under control for a couple of months, but it will trend lower and then collapse in a second large wave down as POMO ends.
I think you are right about qe3. I was initially skeptical. However unless the core goes above 5 percent the spigots are likely to remain wide open.
Spigots of air.
gonna be hard to go over 5% when you don't include food or fuel...
besides, they can just continue to remove things from the index that are increasing in price.
Plan accordingly? Boldly going where no man/woman has gone before?
Captain, this is clearly not logical.
Dammit Jim, I'm a doctor, not a magician.
Captain, I'm giving it all she's got.
Okay gentlemen, you know what to do, set phasers on "stun".
Indeed, QE3 is the next logical step to their money creation game. Otherwise, the extreme measures already taken to bolster the economy would backfire as the US government must continue to pay interest on trillions in debt. Logically, where else can the money come to pay this extraordinary debt but from their own powers to create more of it? They have opened Pandora's box and cannot close it.
lmao at spock coming in and responding to a star trek post
And enters the room...the totally depraved USD stud man...carrying a video camera and a bottle of lube [not petroleum based].
LMFAO!!
Sorry to go Off topic, but did anyone see this? I don't like.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5imeVHU_F43JAilTso-9c7T0f-CbA?docId=ad6180e108404372b6b55615bf87cb18
Utah Army base locked to solve 'serious concern'(AP) – 7 hours ago
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — A Utah military base that carries out tests to protect troops against biological attacks was locked down Wednesday to resolve a "serious concern," officials said.
Base commander Col. William E. King said no one was in danger and the gates will reopen as quickly as it's feasible.
His statement did not provide any details of the problem.
Base spokeswoman Bonnie Robinson told the The Associated Press early Thursday that officials hope to have the problem resolved shortly.
"We are working as quickly and as thoroughly as possible to resolve a serious concern within the Test Area," King said.
"Measures like these (lock down of our gates) are not taken lightly. No one is in immediate danger but these steps are required," he said.
The Salt Lake Tribune reported that a lockdown began at 5:24 p.m. MST Wednesday, with no one allowed in or out of the base. There were about 1,200 to 1,400 people at Dugway at the time.
Military weapons are tested at Dugway, located about 85 miles southwest of Salt Lake City. Its primary mission is defending troops against biological and chemical attacks.
Fear not!!! USAMRIID is on it....cough cough.
here comes the zombie apocalypse
The hardest part about the zombie apocalypse is waiting for it to happen.
Dugway is one place I have no desire to return to. Worked a wildlife survey there 8 years ago before all the current high security BS and back then it was still the most restricted base I'd ever worked at- then or now. I got permission to run back to a truck we'd left near the entry gate to pick up needed equipment. Got turned around on the way back. Will never forget pulling into an alley to make a U-Turn to get back on track and seeing a 2 story brick building solid-sided with just a few grimy, opaque, heavily-wire screened windows. I had the truck window down and heard suffering dog cries and wails like nothing I had ever heard or imagined coming from the building. I gritted my teeth and continued the U-Turn. Saw a uniformed woman walk out of the building carrying a large skinned dead dog. She walked to the dumpster, threw the limp body inside, closed the lid and returned into the building. I will ever forget the impersonal look on her face. I also will never bid on another military project.
You are a sick. Get some help. Your tale is complete BS.
Good work TYLER. Your team should be commended. Very good disclosure and reporting. A "hat tip" to you our friend...
++ well said!
just the snow
It's time to BTFD. After all the data coming on the soft side also today (and check Kansas City FED manuf. survey for boiling inflation pressures), the bearded man in the criminal reserve is getting ready for QE3. To the moon!
Bite The Fukin Dick?
Be The Fucking Dip
-Ghandi
at some point it will be Bite the Fucking Dust
how can anyone sell QE3 with a straight face after all the recovery and improvement speak
I don't think it will be for Muni's, it will be for RMBS again under the guise of stopping the housing double dip.
NOTW777 just like when Jones knew the market was over when his shoeshine boy was talkin about stocks on margin, when I heard Habiib talking to Hadji this morning at 7-11 about 'Who does The Bernank think he's fooling with QE3' this morning, I knew for sure its game over right now.
they will not call it QE III...investment maybe...or at this point just go underground with it...its so criminal now....might as well keep thqt panel that just released a book on the last crisis in business.....they got some more splainin to do LUCY....what a joke we are...I bet there is a lot of backroom talk at Davos as to where to move to...how to get your monies out of the USA...how to hide....etc....
Obama will call it "Winning The Future - Investment in America."
Yep Obamas new slogan is so fitting- "WTF??"
Obama knows less about economics, and cares less about economics, than the average 13 year old girl.
A speech Orwellian-esquely entitled 'Winning The Future' presented ironically by a man trying so hard to Lose The Past, specifically his past, namely birth records, academic records, middle name, associations with terrorists Dohrn/Ayers, racist preacher Wright, scuzzy dealing with con Rezko, on and on and on...
Things are getting so very Orwellian. Win The Future?! Who can argue against that, right, since it means absolutely nothing and thus sounds inoffensive.
...[A]t this point just go underground with it [QE more]...."
I submit that's happening already. Isn't that a standard gambit? -- gain concession for a little (say a paltry $600M), then just open the hose to full gush. Over the past six weeks or so, non-POMO days have been just as big, often bigger, with just as much magical price levitation, as any official POMO day on record.
Same way they sell everything. Fear. If QE3 isnt enacted, all these wonderful yet fragile gains will be destroyed and economic collaspe is assured.
Eventually this will not ust be just a ruse to keep the kleptos in power, but a true argument.
Then get ready for QE3.5lite, QE4.0 and so on.
And if QE3 does come riding in to save the stocks, immediately commodities will skyrocket (even more than now) and we'll be in a DOW 14,000 total world implosion with leaders fleeing daily leaving behind cities burning and death riots everywhere.
Give it a week.
tbt putinskis
Wouldn't surprise me if buying support props equities up . Despite the fact that in the last few hours we've had a credit ratings downgrade for Japan , terrible intial jobless claims , a poor durable goods reading and poor housing data ( to say nothing of recent events in Africa and the shaky state of interbank lending in China ) the market is unfazed .
I'm actually quite astonished ; I never thought that even with chronic low volume and endless Fed funding stocks could rise so far , so fast and remain so disconnected from economic fundamentals . Looking back through charts on the S&P and can't find anything like it .
I agree. It is truely astonishing, but we know it is total bullshit.
People always saying 'Theres nothing new here, its been going on forever', thats total nonsense! Sure there have been bubbles, but even the massive DotCom era bubble is tiny just a blip in comparison to this $30 trillion print and pump job over the last couple of years. There is no comparison, and when THIS fiasco implodes it will lay the whole country to rubble.
it feels like we've been waiting for a long time though. there seems to always be a new way to keep the ship afloat
Question is how long can it continue for ? What's it going to take to break this lofty ramp up ?
We got it all under control here at Central. We're planting hints of QE2.5 with a soupcon of QE3, toping it with a dividend tax cut rumor and denials of a Utah Bioweapons base lockdown
Supervirus, bitchez.
We're takin' it viral, yo.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2011/01/27/2011-01-27_utah_army_base_housing_chemical_and_biological_weapons_shut_down_over_serious_co.html
Hot Zone, bitchezzz!!!
maybe we've been buying the wrong kind of silver
Guess I picked the wrong day to stop mainlining agent orange.
i shouldnt have bought the 1300 knockout ffs :/
Hey Tyler, let's set up a VPN to protect ourselves frrom the day when the donks come in for an attempted shut down. The best news source in finance certainly has a target on it's back.
Is the market starting to finally realize that everything is just a house of cards?
The market has always realized it is nothing but a bailout,stimulus,QE1,2,LITE, POMO pumped house of cards but now is starting to realize the endless supply of coke is drying up. The big rocks are now merely skinny lines and some are even beginning to lick the mirror. Soon the withdrawal will set in and all the addicts will be sent off to rehab leaving us nothing but some skanky hookers and a trashed room full of empty bottles and maxed out credit cards.
"The big rocks are now merely skinny lines and some are even beginning to lick the mirror."
Oh boy, you know what that means....time for ass-sex. Better get the shorts on or else get the lube!
End the federal reserve-- end the bernank.
"Criminal Reserve"
Yes say it like it is TD, keep up the excellent work
weird pink "cat's eye" ovals taking down the markets.... strange days indeed!
Sideways UFO's.
attack of the sideways gonad snatchers.
You know i hate to be such a troll but intermediate tops are not too hard to call. A test of the 200 dma will try your very soul if you are excessively overweight in pm's. There is still a ton of complacency in precious metals. We may get a real test here. I am not going to joke anymore about selling it all before you lose everything. Ive always felt it worthwhile to buy puts when they are the cheapest even to hedhe my physical, but i am out of pm's now. Anybody can get a cheap trading account and be allowed to buy puts and sell covered calls and it can help you sleep better at night during trying times. Its possible these intermediate tops can last a long time even if the bull has not yet run its course. A deflationary scare may be right around the corner and markets often react counterintuitevly to things that might appear inflationary due to expectations of resultant changed in fed policy.
i got my dojo werkin
Give it time. The 4 POMO dudes are late today because of the snow.
I not going short until the next fucking dip is not fucking bought!
Another way of saying the same thing: Wait for the SPY to close below 128 for 2 days.
test
Harry Belafonte - Zombie Jamboree barry elephante singing 'zombie jamberee"
:)
I am all in when silver hits 20
i have a hunch ...it might go well below that...once the real shit hits and we see a tremendous rally in dollar
Boom, a PM dump the JP Morg would be proud of !
Just shows how fake and fragile this 'market' is
The POMO is sure to fail because there are only three final outcomes to debt :
Repayment
Default
Part repayment part default
The problems of excessive debt and leverage cannot be solved by taking on more debt and leverage. All the billions of dollars of TARP, POMO, CRAP does not create an single job nor does it create a single iota of confidence in the actions of the leaders of the country.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
I think everyones starting to see the party is about over, its that time as the keg and bottles are dry, Bernank is under the sink licking an empty Sterno can and Geithner is licking the coke mirror, and the Obungler comes out with a new slogan abbreviated 'WTF'.
There was no other way BUT i had to create a blog and post charts to clear my confusions and ask questions .......below site has got some charts,...didnt put in too much technical indicators...just wanted to concentrate on the wave countings for now....
http://indiancharts-gautam.blogspot.com/2011/01/expanding-diagonal.html
can the Expanding diagonal be other than 3-3-3-3-3 structure.??
if QE next is on the way, then why wouldnt commodities be rallying?
Commodities arent rallying? Wheat just hit a 29 month high yesterday. If youre talking about why the commodity gold is not rallying, well every PTB bankster is hammering it down with all the short power theyve got.
thnx, dumb ass me is asleep at the switch today
" Fed nominee Diamond says QE 'helpful in the right direction"
The direction of killing poor people and giving more money to banksters and rich people, you mean that direction?
Story was true for about 1 hour. Now the market's back up.
initialize:
parse headline: [POMO] [Comes] At [Huge] [Submit]ted-To-[Accept]ed Ratio,
[Market] D[(H)umps];
EndOfFile
Market turned at 11:34 a.m., right after the POMO announcement.
So much for the s/a correlation.
its a last ditch effort if one is looking at the Russell 2000. That high today is the wave 2 last gasp before wave 3 of minor 1 commences. BTFD on R2K is over for now. Then again, WTFDIK (what the fuck do I know) TPTB seem to have been unstoppable. This has to be it.....
The negative yield on the 5 year TIPS is the only market indicator which reflects
the reality I see for our economy. But, then again, the traders look at the price and
don't realize they are getting a negative yield. (This screen name was the one I used
in the 90's as an AOL s/n---needs modification to 36Kby2K14)
It's a house of cards and it's getting harder and harder to support it. The real money knows that we are about to implode and they have gotten out of the market, thats why insiders have been selling like crazy and not buying. QE 3 is coming but it will be disguised in an attempt to help/support states when congress gets done with the bankruptcy law that is quietly going through for states. People will say yes but they won't know what the QE 3 is going to be used for, to buy the states muni bonds and make the investors (especially the ones overseas) whole. Because they can't afford the muni market not having any buyers/investors (even when in the end it will be all bought by Fed guarantee). The people will think that this will protect their pensions and state benefits, but it won't. The states will cut those and more and they will get bailed out again via the govt. backstopping the munis they put out to investors.
All this does is buy the Fed and the US a little time (I mean months not years) and then the rag is pulled from the bush and they can't deny or wink and nod to the point that we are buying all our debt. Which all economists (except the ones in the media that are cheerleading) will tell you is monetization of said country's debt, which in turns leads to debasement of the currency (or whats left to debase).