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POMO Schedule Announced: $105 Billion In 18 Monetizations Through December 9

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Fed's marching orders to the Primary Dealers are now public: $105 billion in 18 nearly daily operations over the next month. Let the Fed frontrunning begin. Also, still wondering why the 30 Year turned around today: the Fed will buy back today's 30 Year issue (and others) next Friday, and of course someone just got wind of this ahead of the POMO announcement. Lastly, as the Fed no longer wants to be seen as gaming the "Tendered to Submitted" ratio, Brian Sack is actually releasing how much of any given bucket he will buy back, so to telegraph absolutely everything about his Dow 36,000 intentions.  And just in case one POMO a day is not sufficient, on November 29,
the Fed will hold two. The second one is footnoted as follows:
"This operation is tentatively scheduled to begin around 1:15 PM and close at 2:00 PM." Whatever you do, don't be short on November 29. Which of course means, be short, as nobody will be short.

 

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Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:06 | 717170 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Who put the 151 in the punch bowl ?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:09 | 717191 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

I see some acid tablets in there too, man this party is about to get fucked up!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:13 | 717222 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Hash brownies and nitrous balloons are at the next table ...

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:20 | 717484 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Momma told me not to come. "That ain't no way to have fun, son."

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:45 | 717556 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now there's a cat after my heart.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 19:16 | 718091 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Roadmap to Weimar, bitchez!!

Thanks for driving silver down yesterday for me, Ben, but no thx and screw off.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:01 | 717622 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i want to thank these assholes for giving us the opportunity to buy more gold and silver at a bargain price before they utterly trash the dollar and destroy our country.

thank you....don't know long it is going to take before it sinks in that some of us are not going to play with you, and we're going to tell our friends...

and they are going to tell their friends....

and they are going to tell their friends....

and pretty soon everyone will know this market is completely fake, and that they are risking their future putting a dime in it.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:12 | 717217 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

...151, 152, whatever it takes...

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:17 | 717242 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:15 | 717231 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Shit, TD, put this guy on the payroll. He obviously knows what he's talking about.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/advance-look-upcoming-pomo-schedule-130...

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:30 | 717308 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Look at the schedule.

Eight straight business days of POMO starting this Friday, then every single day next week followed by Monday and Tuesday of the following week.

Can you smell desperation in the air?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:31 | 717314 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Nah . . .

Now a Thanksgiving Day POMO would be desperation.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:38 | 717341 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

The Fed is going all in on this year's holiday sales. How about some WB7 Fed poker pics? 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:43 | 717355 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Brian Sack's friends call him sackman.  You know why?  Because he's got a huge sack!!!!  of dollars...he has a huge sack of dollars.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:54 | 717597 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Watch the insider selling level over the next month or so. A lot of insiders may be taking the chance to dump a ton of shares in the face of the POMO buying frenzy. If the markets doesnt move up strongly is an indication that we may have seen the top of this bear market rally as next year Bernanke will have less support with 3 new fed governors on board (Fisher is one of them) and with Ron Paul breathing down his neck.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:07 | 717174 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I guess the correction is already over.

Sheesh, they don't even give the bears more than 2 days.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:08 | 717184 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I hope you didn't sell X. Next stop 70$ and beyond.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:08 | 717187 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Fed supporting markets and dollar falling further equals a 1300 SPX EOY more than likely.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:24 | 717278 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I hear ya, Harry. Let's do the math.

If I'm not mistaken, the first two POMO schedules were about $70B over two months beginning back in late August. $70B over two months drove the Dow from 10000 or so to 11400. Lets call it 14%. Its helped drive gold up even more, around 20%.

This is POMO on steroids...$105fuckingB over one month. If form holds and barring the Second Coming in the next 30 days, a Dow target is around +20% from here or 13500 or so. Gold would be a 30% pop to around 1800. 

Shit. I can see the Dow going that far but even I have to admit that $1800 gold by mid-December seems crazy. But, fuck, the numbers are what they are. Either way, its going to be a crazy month. BUY EVERYTHING THAT IS PRICED IN DOLLARS.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:34 | 717324 Orly
Orly's picture

Don't forget the Law of Diminishing Returns...

I wouldn't bet the farm on those numbers, if I were you.  If anything, the POMO schedule is designed to churn the markets pending some news from the Euro.

:D

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:36 | 717333 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Don't get too excited.  The rise from late August on priced in much of this nonsense.  

BTW, thanks much for the past advice on AU (the element).  I owe you many drinks.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:49 | 717371 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"Priced in" was QE light.  This is QE2, a whole new ballgame.  Discounted maybe a little, but not priced in.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:48 | 717372 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I hear ya and it would be foolish to simply extrapolate the #s. However, you're going to get your ass kicked if you fight the Fed this month. HellyBenny himself said last week that "rising asset prices generate a 'wealth effect' that inspires economic growth". Dow 14000 sounds crazy but 12500-13000 by 12/15 doesn't. Not when $100fuckingB is coming in. $1800 gold is hard to imagine but my oft-stated target of 1500 before 12/10/10 is a near certainty now. 1600 is realistic along with $35 silver.

Its going to be a wild, wild month.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:54 | 717397 Orly
Orly's picture

It is indeed going to be wild.

There is one big reason why this POMO is different.  The last program began with dollar strength; this time, it begins with USD weakness.

The charts of the AUSUSD and EURUSD are about to drop off a cliff.  The rapid ramp in both currency pairs has left little support under the charts.  Enter the Fed.

It is vital to avoid marked disruptions in currency markets.  The POMO here is designed to act as an airbrake to the Euro and Ozzie dollar correction.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:27 | 717506 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Orly.......remember during the great deleveraging when technicals stayed brutally oversold for what seemed like forever.

So also can technicals stay o/b..........get out of the way of POMO 2.........this is the solid rocket fuel about to kick in and who knows maybe the world will turn upside down once more however there is no fucking way I would be short or try to be short into the eye of this price hurricane.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:16 | 717671 Orly
Orly's picture

The first steps were just that, first steps.  Now, one has to deal with the resonance from that.

There is a major reason why this POMO is different and it has to do with strength versus weakness.  Just about every technical has shouted overbought for weeks and weeks.  Look at a chart of the EURUSD until two weeks ago and you'll see what I mean.

Now, the SPX is breaking down, the USDJPY is breaking down (up, in this case...), the EURUSD us breaking down, as is the AUDUSD.  There has to be a downside some time and we are there. I have a feeling that the Fed has engineered this step in the parade for setting more comfortable corrections in the Euro and Ozzie dollar- as well as not shock the yen too much.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 18:09 | 717874 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Who really knows in this upside down world, but I would not be shorting into this round of debasing the USD.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:16 | 717469 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Absolutely spot on.  It would be ludicrous to fight the Fed for the next several weeks.  I just didn't want all of us to get so excited we'd buy a whole new set of weaponry to fend off those without investment capital who will be devastated by Ben's inflationary excursion.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:37 | 717534 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

When and where do you expect the gold margin to be increased ... around 1440 would be plausible - not?
Or already this week - on "thin" veterans day or thin Friday?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:55 | 717406 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Did anyone mention the duo of POMOs on the 29th?  Someone may have but it just caught my eye.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:13 | 717204 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Wanna post another gold chart there, dingus?  I thought gold was going to collapse?

Take you time.  Wash the Johnny Jizz out of your eyes so you don't click the wrong button, like you did with the used car dealer stock, claiming that that was representative of car sales improving.

Hey, I notice that nickels are worth more than 6 cents now.  Your business behind the local 7/11 is doing well, I trust?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:18 | 717250 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

It doesn't really matter what a nickel is 'worth'. They are all branded with their owners mark. Free range cattle and cattle rustling go hand in hand. Be clear about what happens to rustlers of clearly branded property.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:05 | 717637 still kicking
still kicking's picture

The thing about cattle rustling is that if you steal it, kill it, butcher it and consume it who the hell ever knows you stole it?  Point being it's not hard to learn how to do things, how would anyone ever know that I melted down my old penny's and nickels if I learned how to do it myself?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:31 | 717313 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Blue Robo loves used cars!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:11 | 717205 shushup
shushup's picture

.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:14 | 717252 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wow yea what a party, DOW got green barely...and China has far more ICBM's to fire near L.A., this time not targeted to splash down far north of Hawaii!  ;P

Oh sorry, all you stock permabull pumpers who junk my post, boo hoo hoo.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:22 | 717491 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Hey Robo, we got your back pardner, dont' worry about it....

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:06 | 717177 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Long silver.  long tech

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:07 | 717179 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

And down goes the dollar again! Well, I guess nothing to do but chase this thing through the EOY. 1300 SPX seeming likely now.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:43 | 717356 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Then why aren't you long SPY...thought I read you were long only SDS and physical gold.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:47 | 717365 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

thought I read you were long only SDS and physical gold.

 

SSSSSSSSSssssssshhhhhhhhhhhh ......Everyone forgot.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:07 | 717181 ExploitTheMarket
ExploitTheMarket's picture

Wow... taking the middle figure thats 62.5 Billion in November alone!!!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:10 | 717203 Arius
Arius's picture

 why wow...take him at his word...he has been saying since 2002... remember the helicopter?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:57 | 717401 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's one thing to hear the Monk say he will douse himself in gasoline and light the match in protest. It's an entirely different matter to watch it in person.

Warning, the Video is not for the weak stomach.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IId55YArfxM&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkaTjHx5RAU

Essentially this is the beginning of Ben on fire. Forgive him Lord for he knows what he's doing. Can you say "fall guy"?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:16 | 717467 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well the immature kid in me relates better to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEYYYMuwCyA

"Ben, that's great they want more!"
"Yeah I know the only problem is I can only kill the dollar once"

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:20 | 717486 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"They want more."

"I know, I know. But I can only do it once."

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:36 | 717532 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Like the suicide bomb instructor who said, "Listen up! I'm only going to show you this once."

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:27 | 717505 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Better yet, a fall guy from the ivory towers of academia, which of course, will be given as the reason for his failure.

"Poor Ben, just doesn't have any street sense."

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:38 | 717766 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

lol:

Well I think it is BenB dousing Our lifestyle with fuel and lighting it on fire.  Did you note any burns on our Ben yet?  I didn't detect any, but on our lifestyle, plenty.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:07 | 717182 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

The only lube fit for the printing presses is KY.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:08 | 717188 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Call me Stupid but I just got me some SLV Puts, have some sort of strange feeling about the action today! I feel the need to hedge!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:30 | 717516 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wow, that's beyond bulldozer level. You're picking pennies up out of the nuclear reactor!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:10 | 717190 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Wake me up before you POMO.......

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:16 | 717235 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

WHAM! baby!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:27 | 717296 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

I don't want to miss it when you reach that high!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:39 | 717543 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

i don't want to kiss your POMO. hell, i don't even know what POMO stands for.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:09 | 717193 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I dare you to print more.

Maybe China should have launched a missile over Jekyll Island to be more clear.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:18 | 717247 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

As of today that was an airplane. The pilot just doesn't have tv, a radio, internet, friends, family, newspaper or a job outside of his home therefore has no idea that his flight scared the shit out of everybody.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:54 | 717396 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

An airplane that has no record of taking off, and a confirmation of a missile launched by both NORAD and NORTHCOM. Im surprised theyre not saying it was swamp gas reflecting off Uranus.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:09 | 717194 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

NFLX about to break out to new highs.

P/E ratio of 66.

I guess that isn't high enough.

LOL....

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:11 | 717211 shushup
shushup's picture

Put a shirt on your and I'll put pants on mine.

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:41 | 717548 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

i thought that was what that was. poser. 13 week poser.

is it really cold where you live? cause it is really cold shrinkage here ;-)

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:46 | 717359 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Meanwhile more of the unemployed are having to move in with friends and family. 

P/O (Pissed Off) ratio of freaking infinity.  

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:11 | 717195 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Well, today was pretty much spot on. I'm sticking with this morning's targets for the obvious reasons. Looks like $36B in POMO if you take the midpoint, $41B max. Not quite $43B but what's the difference? EVERYTHING IS GOING HIGHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

 

 

by Turd Ferguson 
on Wed, 11/10/2010 - 10:06
#716122

 

More likely, consolidation with the new "reality" of higher margin requirements. Sideways between 1390 and 1405 until late morning tomorrow. PMs then begin to breakout and head higher in advance of $10B POMO on Friday.

If I had to guess right now, on Wednesday morning, Gold finishes the week around 1415-1420, silver maybe 28.50-29. Another solid, up week. Volatile but solid.

Next week should be a lot of fun with new highs in both as we get $33B in POMO by Thursday. Gold to 1450 and silver to 30, at least.

Again, add that up. That's $43,000,000,000 in fucking POMO by late morning next Thursday. $43B!!Now, I suppose all kinds of crap can happen all over the world that would cause panic and preclude dollar-denominated asset rallies but, you have to admit, the apocalypse is not likely to happen before next Thursday. Buy everything. Gold, silver, crude, wheat, AAPL, NFLX, AMZN, whatever. That thundering you hear in the distance is the sound of 43 billion fucking dollars coming over the horizon.

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:18 | 717249 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I gotta FEVA'!  And the only PRESCRIPTION is more POMO!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4royOLtvmQ

Same thing over and over.  I'm gonna retire a wealthy man inside of a year at this rate.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:27 | 717292 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

lol

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:50 | 717577 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

gold plated diapers, bitchez

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:19 | 717254 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Right on Turd! 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:23 | 717272 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That thundering you hear in the distance is the sound of 43 billion fucking dollars coming over the horizon.

A fire around our perimeter to burn the blasphemous paper currency.  FIAT will incinerate trying to break it. 

Gold to touch $1500 by the end of next week.  $29 silver.  $1900 Platinum.

And I like that you added anything can happen.  With all the retort from the rest, sans India, I wouldn't be surprised if a ebony swan descended in the form of the housing crisis, a world wide bank run, or a run on the dollar.  Of course, to me, it appears gold would benefit from every happening I can imagine, but that's my book.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:28 | 717300 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Hi, Jimi.

I hear ya. I mentioned on another thread how convenient it was for protests and general chagrin to suddenly reappear in Europe right after the QE2 announcement and the subsequent run in the Euro to 1.42.

Undoubtedly more BS to come but nothing, ultimately, changes the PM fundos. Keep buying all dips. The buyer(s) of size will.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:38 | 717340 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"I trade size."

The eye of Suramon has been distracted by Europe, once again.  Little does it know a few hobbits of the ZeroHedge shire were about to throw the one printing press into the depths of Mordor.

And Turd, does $1800 by Xmas really sound that crazy now? 

;)

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:46 | 717364 tmosley
tmosley's picture

More like the Rangers of the North.

Once and future kings.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:01 | 717378 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Sound the horns, the Kings return!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:28 | 717510 Shameful
Shameful's picture

When do you think the buyers of size will just bring it all down? If big boys are really playing in the market a few huge buys with physical demands literally could moonshot the market. Or do you think this has already happened and will play out in Dec delivery as the COMEX has to pull an alchemist to come up with the metals?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:54 | 717393 flaunt
flaunt's picture

"That thundering you hear in the distance is the sound of 43 billion fucking dollars coming over the horizon."

Nice vivid way of stating it!

Here are some ways to visualize just 1 billion dollars:

"The lifetime income of you and 278 of your doctorate friends"

"The taxes stolen from you and 103,424 of your friends"

"The winnings for every powerball jackpot in 2007"

"The yearly profits of General Mills"

That's just ONE billion!

http://www.wallstats.com/blog/visualizing-one-billion-dollars/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:13 | 717460 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Not to take any air out of the POMO balloon here, but the TBTFs have many more trillions in unwound derivatives. I don't pretend to know the exact amount (estimate 200-900 trillion, maybe Reggie knows) nor how likely they are to collapse, but that's a lot of deflation to cover if they do.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no shill for the TPTB, I agree that BSB has the inflation pedal to the floor and I tend to agree with you, but I'm worried about what's lurking on the banks on and off balance sheets that could be highly deflationary, if so, we could get another flash crash, POMO notwithstanding.

Anybody else too scared to go SPY, GOOG, AMZ, APPL crazy?

Thoughts?

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:20 | 717485 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

 

"Not to take any air out of the POMO balloon here, but the TBTFs have many more trillions in unwound derivatives. I don't pretend to know the exact amount (estimate 200-900 trillion, maybe Reggie knows) nor how likely they are to collapse, but that's a lot of deflation to cover if they do.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no shill for the TPTB, I agree that BSB has the inflation pedal to the floor and I tend to agree with you, but I'm worried about what's lurking on the banks on and off balance sheets that could be highly deflationary, if so, we could get another flash crash, POMO notwithstanding."

 

I'll go along with all of that. Always remember just who the Fed IS in the first place.

That said, until and unless FASB goes back to their original rules, the charade of TBTF solvency will continue. Since I don't see that happening in the next month, I gotta figure buying any dollar-denominated asset is a safe bet. Gold, silver, AAPL...doesn't matter. Come 12/9, they'll all be much higher.


 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 23:52 | 721215 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

With talk about a run on the banks 12/7, I might bail a little early.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:09 | 717196 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Bernanke if $1T will create such a great equity wealth effect then let's push all our chips in and go for shock and awe with $25T.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:27 | 717295 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

well now you are just being silly.. We should start off in increments of 5.. ;-)

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:10 | 717198 shushup
shushup's picture

Fucking Bernanke should be arrested this minute and put in jail for fraud, theft and outright market manipulation. POMO every Fucking day except the 2 days before and after Thanksgiving.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:17 | 717241 centerline
centerline's picture

Drive it like you stole it.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:21 | 717262 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

That's on a sticker near the power button of Ben's printer.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:39 | 717346 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ah!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:10 | 717199 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Look at that, purchases every day next week.  Just in time for this month's options expiration.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 22:38 | 718554 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It's a shorter list for the days there is no POMO!  And just what is with this no POMO on weekends stuff?  Fire those slackers! :(

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:10 | 717201 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

 thought this was the number bandied about already? So what? Watchout for the give back. AUD/JPY put in a bad 30 minute candle an hour ago at the top of the range. Just saying.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:11 | 717207 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

The top is in....  

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:11 | 717214 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

In what? The USDX dead-cat bounce?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:21 | 717261 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

S&P 500...  Look at IYR, its failing to take out the days high. It lead the decline yesterday. Winds of change blow, the bear is finally back. 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:31 | 717315 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Differing opinions make a market I guess.

I was short as shit, too, back in the summer. I reluctantly gave up when the first POMO schedule was announced in late August. It was only $27B if I remember right. Combined with last month's POMO, the market has rallied about 15% since. I rather miraculously avoided taking a serious ass-kicking.

The FED is handing the PDs $105fuckingB over the next 30 days and you want to be short? Good luck.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:36 | 717332 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

Turd, you and I are a lot alike. We both know this market is BS. We both are huge fans of gold and silver. The list goes on.

Trying to time when the market will fall is nearly impossible, and I could definitely be wrong. It seemed to be topping in the spring, and indeed, it probably was. However, the summer retest of highs took a lot of us by surprise.

Anyway, my point is that the Fed is handing these PDs 105 billion per mo in POMO money because they know what is about to come. The know its hugely unpopular, but they have no choice. We are about to hit another deflationary inflection point that will wipe out trillions in value, so the 100 bn liquidity taps will only go so far. Gold and silver will take that short term hit as they always do, but rest assured, they will stop declining well before stocks. Like years. I do believe we need a DOW:Gold ratio of 1 or 2 before this is over. I think its safe to say it wont be down 11,000 or dow 2000 but somewhere in the middle, like dow 6000.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:59 | 717418 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Interesting remarks and there will be a lot of money given to dealers.  To assume everyone is going to pile into emerging markets or whatever asset of choice may be dangerous.  If I were a dealer I would be asking myself what is everyone else doing and how can I profit the most.  Automatically jumping into risk assets might appear alluring but why pile into something that is already overbought.  Besides, aren't these dealers the same institutions who experts claim need to repair their balances sheets with cash?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:37 | 717335 Orly
Orly's picture

POMO = airbrake, especially for the Australian dollar.

"D

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:23 | 717493 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Yes, we all get sucked into the DOW, but the currency markets are where the big boys are playing. Thanks for reminding us. (as usual)

Would you care to elaborate why POMO slows the rise of the Aussie dollar?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:00 | 717619 Orly
Orly's picture

POMO will not at all slow the rise of the AUDUSD, or AUDJPY, for that matter.  Those charts have already topped.

If you pull up a Daily chart of AUDUSD, you can see what devastation poor liquidity (with everyone grabbing for US Dollars all at once...) had on the Ozzie in July of 2008.  Oil plunged, other commodities followed, price shocks ensued.  The original Fed injection into the monetary system came in the form of FX swaps with Britain and Europe in order to stabilise the USD vis-a-vis oil and nickel.

Then came the real liquidity ramp: TARP, QE I, HAMP, cash-for-appliances and on down the line.  Really, the only thing that has come out of that experience has been a general popular realisation that we can't go on living that way forever.  Stabilised, however, is a matter of perspective...

One side effect that the Fed must have been aware of when they were (and are...) printing more money was that much of it was going to go into commodity and emerging market speculation.  The correlation between the ramp in commodities (and I don't think the Fed really cares so much about your gold, frankly.  They would rather know the whereabouts of your platinium, rhodium and molydenum instead...) and the rise in the AUDUSD pair is nearly perfect.

The Australian dollar is a main commodity currency, meaning that when paired with other currencies, its relative strength relies on the price and profit margin of currencies (benefitted, too, by a relatively high interest rate, which is also about to end...).  When the price of gold rises, the relative strength of the Ozzie dollar does, as well.  Those two charts are also virtually identical.

 

Now, you can see where the idea of stability as a perspective comes in.  Ben is at the top of the see-saw, having pumped a bunch of money in.  Now, he is preparing for the other side of the trade.

The relative strength of the AUD is in rapid decline, mainly because traders have realised that much of the product is getting out-priced relative to efficiency.  In other words, it costs too much.  (Also, traders know that the interest rate table in Australia will reverse to the downside- possibly as soon as next month- making the AUD not as attractive, particularly for the JPY carry trade...)

The last thing the Fed wants to see is another mass exodus out of commodities, out of the AUD and into USD or JPY.  Can you imagine, you're at the frat house when someone calls out that this is the last beer?  Ever heard such rapid silence as that?

If everyone bailed all at once, price disruptions would again ensue and Washington would be marched upon in some way.  They really don't want a bunch of semi-drunk frat-boys pissing on their lawn, so they're sending over a keg, hoping that everyone passes out and sleeps it off.

 

This is an airbrake to help remove liquidity (over time...) and enhance stability.  I sure hope it works.

:D

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 21:15 | 718371 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

The relative strength of the AUD is in rapid decline, mainly because traders have realised that much of the product is getting out-priced relative to efficiency.  In other words, it costs too much.  (Also, traders know that the interest rate table in Australia will reverse to the downside- possibly as soon as next month- making the AUD not as attractive, particularly for the JPY carry trade...)

So, are you all in short AUD/USD?........maybe all central banks will join the debasing party and the RBA will lead with surprise interest rate cuts followed by the ECB which will get very vocal about supporting debt monetization and print and buy PIIGs forever.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 22:08 | 718496 Orly
Orly's picture

That's what I mean exactly.  I was in short AUDUSD and AUDJPY (the EURUSD is on the brink as well...) but I have had to rethink that position given the very recent behavior of the OzzieDollar pair.

It was announced that the AUD unemployment figures were worse than expected (5.4%...).  There was a rapid sell-off of AUD/x, as one would expect because now the Australians are closer to lowering interest rates...((screeeech)) right to parity with the USD, then stopped.

It is difficult to tell what affect all these things are having on the chart because of the two factors of the fat, round number "par" and the Fed actions, combining to make it hard to see what exactly is going on.

If the Australians dropped rates right now, that would sink a lot of currencies at once, especially the AUD.  I think the Fed's idea is to prevent that from happening so quickly.

A more pragmatic approach is warranted and play for short-term (one or two days...) gains is the only way to go.  Wait and see.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 23:25 | 718645 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Who knows, maybe the other central banks are in on the 'Fed deal", and squawking objections for theatrics while just playing along in the orchestra.

And how about a 1.10 AUD........like CAD in 11/07 ( 90 spot/110 futures)........maybe both arrive around the same time? Looks possible.

Simple, really, just be on the right side of price, and make that the dogma.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:10 | 717452 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Not yet. wait for 1 more month when all bears are bulls again.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:17 | 717238 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

I doubt it, but this is definitely slope of hope material.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:23 | 717275 hambone
hambone's picture

Somehow the launch of a very big missile for all of LA to see tells me you may be right...no one wants to claim this or verify anything.  DoD, all private parties say it wasn't theirs and not a plane or FAA would know.

And yet, a missile was launched of the Cali coast.  Gotta believe somebody sent a very serious warning to somebody else.  Stakes look very, very high.  Fed has just announced a plan to flood the world w/ free money and most will quickly leave America destabilizing EM's worldwide.

I think this moment may be more serious than we know?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:26 | 717290 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

Right, the crowd is so bullish cause of the magic money right now, but if China changes its mind, that 800 billion POMO spree will not even keep pace with a treasury flush. There will be nothing left to support the stock market. 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:36 | 717321 hambone
hambone's picture

Tin foil hat on > this is also about enuf money to  buy back Chinese held T's getting dumped on the secondary w/out T's collapsing?

Is it possible PD's could buy up T's from current holders and sell back to Fed as well as buying new issuance?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:36 | 717329 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, let the bulls run but theyll find most all of this goes into PM shorts and trying to shore up bonds. G20 on deck to derail it all, Bens little experiment is over.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:34 | 717325 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I don't trust the gubbmint on anything. However, everything I've looked at regarding this incident points to this actually being accurate.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/10/california.contrails/index.html?section...

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:41 | 717349 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea sure, after NORAD and NORTHCOM BOTH admitted there indeed was a missile launched, but gave no further details on ownership or origin. Now its a plane contrail...did you SEE the video of it? What plane has flasms shooting out of it and what plane takes off straight up??

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:50 | 717375 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

What plane has flasms shooting out of it and what plane takes off straight up??

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYlJNWdt0uE&feature=related

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:04 | 717411 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nice find! That indeed has to be it!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:54 | 717399 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

If it's true, a few questions remain in my mind:

1. Why did it take so long to come up with an official explanation?

2. Why aren't these things seen all the time? Or if they are, why was this one reported? What makes it special?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:36 | 717530 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I've been a sky watcher all my life. Here is my main problem with the "contrails" explanation.

If the plane was at level flight, the contrail would have widened evenly and steadily. And if it was a real contrail, it would have dispersed rapidly. Meaning that it would not linger, but rapidly fade away after a few miles. I'm not talking chem-trails, but good old fashioned contrails. The water vapor is quickly (re)absorbed into the atmo.

Also, if the plane was climbing, it would not have left a steady contrail because the conditions for creating a real contrail are very specific and not every elevation creates contrails at the same time. Often just a few thousand feet in vertical elevation is the difference between leaving one and not.

The video shows the contrail shearing at different rates and places, indicating the device leaving it is climbing through different elevations with different wind (shear) speeds. Since it is clearly climbing, it could not leave a continuous contrail as previously explained. What it was leaving was some kind of smoke that lingers without the need for specific atmo conditions.

That means a rocket or missle.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:52 | 717585 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre trying to blow contrails up our ass, thats all. I have an early report which states NORAD and NORTHCOM both confirmed a missile had been launched. 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:59 | 717617 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

sky watcher CD, bitchez

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:11 | 717658 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

ron paul (R) texas was just on dylan ratigan show. good topics.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:26 | 717487 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Outside of any speculation you have to note that two regular helicopter pilots found this particular contrail interesting enough to film..

These are guys that are up in the air all day/ every day. It's they're job. They see contrails all them time. As news correspondents they saw this particular contrail and figured it was news..  BIG news.  in fact too big for public consumption.. And its rife with plausible deniability.

well played to all involved.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:43 | 717552 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

...two regular helicopter pilots found this particular contrail interesting enough to film..

Helicopter pilots are always jealous of contrails because they can't leave them.

Sounds like an excuse the government would come up with, doesn't it? :>)

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:11 | 717210 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

Shit with a schedule like that, looks like the turkey is gona be extra fat this year

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:15 | 717234 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

...my little pony still loves SLW. I'd rope that Thanksgiving turkey while you can Clark, I think they'll find a way to raise margin requirements on the birds, too.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:20 | 717257 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

still lovin SLW eh.... talk about luck on cashing out the day before yesterday.

yikes... with this schedule though, you have to speculate on it a bit .... happy hunting and be careful.... gobble gobble

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:26 | 717289 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

SLW knows, gettin' the hell outta dodge.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:08 | 717446 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And which douche was it who said SLW was all done yesterday?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:19 | 717481 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

Not sure who claimed that, I pulled out two days ago after a hell of a run up, and was hoping for a bit of pull back for a day or two.... well looks like that happened, now its off to the moon..... Turd has been accurate as hell on these calls lately,  must be using the Force against the EE...

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:56 | 717601 Bay of Pigs
Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:13 | 717223 flaunt
flaunt's picture

Holy POMO!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:38 | 717540 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Batman!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:14 | 717226 Racer
Racer's picture

ZimBen has given a new meaning to the PPT!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:15 | 717230 RheologyMan
RheologyMan's picture

My child is now a citizen of a bannana republic......Princeton be damned.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:16 | 717232 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

OK, so this effectively is the QE2 schedule - but I thought QE was participating directly as a bidder in the Treasury auctions, and not simply buying the bonds off the PDs?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:16 | 717239 thepigman
thepigman's picture

These POMOs will not leak into

equities. Don't say I didn't tell you:)

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:23 | 717271 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

?????

110 billion in play money for the primary bankers to support the markets will not make its way into the market ???

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:52 | 717385 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Explain yourself, pigman...

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:18 | 717476 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, these POMO's are to support China dumping back their bonds, and some for PM shorting, thats about it!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:40 | 717544 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

That doesn't sound too good. What about my wealth effect? Who's gonna take care of my animal spirits?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:18 | 717251 centerline
centerline's picture

"Shazam!"....  

 

ok not yet.  but just warming up.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:19 | 717253 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Let's not forget that pretty much all domestic economic data came in better than expected todays as well. Actually, pretty much all data and earnings over the past 2-3 weeks have come in BTE. Yes, I know, expectations are/were low but still we are heading in the right direction. It's just going to be really, really slow, sluggish recovery.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:29 | 717297 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Harrrrrrrrry no more than 2 days ago you were short the s&p and a week ago you sold apple within 4 hour of purchase at $207 in a epic panic intra-day jitters.

 

You can't just pick up the old lines of " really,really slow,sluggish ... bla,bla....slogging,...

You dance around more than the cowboy cheerleaders on a meth runner ....

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:51 | 717582 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I'm always upfront about my trades and usually trade frequently in equities. For the 1000th time, I've been long gold and PM's since 2002. 

And, I bought SDS Friday and as I said earlier, sold it before lunch for a nice quick profit. 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:08 | 717646 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Your so full of fucking shit I love it ...... !!!!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:46 | 717802 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I'm sure you've been upfront about your Yahoo longs many moons ago as it was sinking like the Titantic. In other words, whatever.. and you're still long AAPL.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:30 | 717311 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Yeah.. as those 10 million manufacturing jobs trickle back into America... ??   Garbage.. Absurd

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:52 | 717389 espirit
espirit's picture

Not so. Just think how many goobermint newhires are going to be needed print the BennieBux, and keep the machines running to distribute.

First of all, how many helicopters do we need to order?

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:49 | 717573 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep Harry it will be a slow, sluggish recovery right up until the markets completely collapse under their own unsupported sheer gross tonnage.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 16:56 | 717599 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Even one of the big bears out there, and smart ones at that, Ian Sheperdson, who has been quoted at ZH frequently is acknowledging the slow and sustaining economic growth.

From an interview today: “But I do think that the seeds have been sown now,” Shepherdson added. “And looking ahead 6-9 months I think about the middle of next year things will look a lot better."

So I guess now he's an idiot too since he's not in your camp any longer??

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 17:23 | 717702 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/business/07gret.html

I am not certain how small business lending will create jobs per se unless there are goods or services demand not being filled already.  Debt needs to be paid down from the perspective of corporations, governments, and individuals.  Until that occurs I am of the opinion there can be no sustained recovery.  Of course everything Bernanke is doing is the exact opposite of what we need to lay the foundation for that recovery.

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:20 | 717260 flacon
flacon's picture

Blythe Masters caught on tape being eaten by a Great White:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9L4Mwn6wu0

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:54 | 717404 espirit
espirit's picture

Hundred pounds of Rolaids probably wouldn't help!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:21 | 717264 flaunt
flaunt's picture

They ought to be honest and call these things Circle Jerks rather than POMOs.

 

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:21 | 717265 rrwoodward
rrwoodward's picture

And to think we were stunned by the 3 billion Fed-led Wall Street bailout of Long Term Capital Management. It's truly astonishing!

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 15:22 | 717270 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

And with that the new support for gold is $1400 and silver $27?  Oil to be north of $100 in the very near future?

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