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Portugal Budget Discussions Break Down, Government Collapse Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The most amusing email this morning sent around the trading desk community comes from the otherwise perpetually jovial Goldman Europe strategist Erik Nielsen. The email subject is simple enough: "Bad news out of Portugal." And the news is bad.

As BBC reports, "the minority government of Portugal has failed to gain opposition support for its proposed austerity budget. A failure to pass the budget could plunge the country back into the debt crisis it had seemingly escaped since the summer." And this: "Prime Minister Jose Socrates threatened to quit if the budget fails, while the finance minister ruled out more talks." In other words, the Portuguese government is about to fall, bond sales are to be put on Hiatus, and talk of the ESFS' usage is likely to reemerge, and add Portugal to the list of recipients including Greece and Ireland.

Nielsen's take is just as dire:

If PSD were to vote against the Budget, the Government would resign and early elections would be called.  However, since the elections cannot be held during six months before a presidential election (schedule for January), there would be neither a government not a budget until well into 2011 in this case.  In my opinion, this would imply a worrisome delay in the formulation and implementation of critical budget cuts and reforms.

Simply said, the realization that austerity has failed, following recent endless strikes out of France, is becoming ever more widespread. Basically, the only two alternatives proposed by Keynesian economics: excess spending and thrift, are now in complete failure mode, once again confirming that the sole economic theory used by the world over the past century has been nothing but a lie, providing no viable alternatives in times of real stress.

Next up: the realization that fiat money is a broken system.

Luckily, Bill Gross is ahead of the pack on that one:

"Perhaps, as a vocal contingent suggests, our paper-based foundation of wealth deserves to be buried, making a fresh start from admittedly lower levels."

When that last, most obstinate and intellectually challenged Nobel-prize winning shaman of Keynesianism, Paul Krugman finally espouses this view, that will mark the end of the Fed, and will return gold to its rightful place. Of course, for that to happen, Krugman will need to populate his little pet Op-Ed column: "The Worst Economist In The World" with daily quotations of his own endless drivel.

 

 

 


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Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

Rally time!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

LOL

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:27 | Link to Comment MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

It should produce a gold rally.

How is gold doing today? I can't get to my computer to check...

Let me know, OK? I think Sprott predicted a pop yesterday. Did we get it?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 16:12 | Link to Comment iconoclast63
iconoclast63's picture

Gold is down ... 1325 ... the dollar is rallying ... the dow is down too.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

unless you were there, watching those portu-geezers throwing knives at each other, this is a rumor mill to get the euro down.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:29 | Link to Comment Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

The Portuguese newspapers yesterday had a good spread on the budget impasse. My family has been bringing up the topic regularly over the past month. The re-emergence of a budget crisis seems anything but a rumor, though Socrates's threat to quit is a bit outlandish. Why would a politician forgo demonizing the opposition for another month or two? Without the budget he won't have much else to do.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment moregoldplease
moregoldplease's picture

More spending, that's what's needed. How else will the workers, that don't really work, survive?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Right on BUY EC...<cynicism filter is back in on position>

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Steak
Steak's picture

the consensus there is that the socialist state needs to be pared back...the current PM pushing austerity would get more votes if he calls for a new election, so not a bad move on his part.

<= porra, btw

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

you got any hump day mixes dog? shit is fucked up!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Coin shops in Lisbon must be busy.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

In this algo-driven world, today we see the euro sold off on this news, which causes the $ to rally, which causes PMs to be sold.

A human being would see this development as just another reason not to own any fiat, much less the euro or $. The motherboards, however, see otherwise.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment yabs
yabs's picture

this will be news for about a week then they'll bury it

remember Dubai, Greece?

perpetual bailouts all round

I'm sure we will have another Lehman though but who will it be?

maybe Portugal will be who knows

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

This will be news for about 10 minutes and only really reported here. 

Wasn't Ireland supposed to explode last week or the week before? Always the same.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It all doesn't matter..........until it does.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thanks. Been hearing that same response for a year from everyone who says "collapse in Europe is imminent". What's imminent? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years? 50 years? 

Everything will collapse at some point, even the sun will explode, and eventually you will be right. Long dead, but right.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

So using your logic of nothing ever happens so just ignore, all the people forecasting the sub-prime issue brewing years before the banks detonating were simply lucky in their call?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:16 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

No, that's not what I'm saying. It's just the constant "fall of the PIIGS is imminent" routine is getting a little old. If I didn't know any better and only read comments here, I would think France is a a complete standstill with everyone out in the streets rioting nonstop (not the case). I would think Greece would be a bombed out hell hole with starving people walking the streets from all the protests and austerity (it's not).

Heard O'Reilly or one of those Fox morons talking about how the NPR issue was going to blow up into major crisis for the network, etc., etc. It really sounded like the same type of commentary I read hear. Everything is a major crisis - until tomorrow when it's replaced by the next major crisis.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

I understand what you are saying but unfortunately no one knows when an issue will metastasize and cause destruction of some sort.  Until then all we can do is read the news and be aware of the variety of possibilities and take reasonable precautions.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Its a confidence game.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

I love Zero Hedge and volunteer protect Tyler and Marla, et al, with the same fervent militancy of an S1W at a Public Enemy concert.  To me Zero Hedge is the Distant Early Warning system for the various threats to all of our financial futures.  It must be monitored at all times.  Back in the dot com bubble I got slaughtered on a bullshit stock called Sensar which was one of MSN's 10,000% in 10 years picks.  It was nothing but a phantom of a company.  I was short and I believe it went from about 50 to 80 where I was forced to cover, stops were hit, I was totally destroyed etc.  My point being is I was right all along, but the market (which I believe Sensar had the backing of Goldman) ran it up anyway destroying me in the process, then ultimately obviously blowing up completely.

ZH keeps us informed, but as for trading in the markets, that's all on us...

Thank you Tyler and Marla!

Biff

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:25 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

its not that distant LOL

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Biff, I am in the same boat you are. I purchased inverse ETFs (especially FAZ) betting that the market would blow up in a normal fashion as back in the Great Depression. Through manipulation and outright lies our gubimint and the Fed created a dead cat bounce rally against my position. It is not ZH's fault that my investment went wrong, it was my lack of understanding of the the markets. ZH has good info and even pointed out why my investment went wrong.

Bears, have hope. The fraudulent market can't last forever, but it can make our investments go to zero.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:12 | Link to Comment marc_hanes
marc_hanes's picture

Have to agree. After, what a year and a half of reading this website, I confess to a bit of ZH fatigue." I still follow the website daily but the "waiting for Godot" feel has taken hold. Yes, things will change, but, perhaps contra to CD, the human mind cannot exist on red alert indefinitely. Pithy one liners does not change this. This may be how "The System" wins. If so, err, they are winning. Most of the time now I feel it is my duty to read ZH than a chance to learn something new.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Well said.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you have been reading ZH for a year and a half, then you should be a lot richer now than when you started, whereas you would have been a lot poorer had you remained in the markets.

Over that timeframe, I'm up 200%, where my father, who is heavily invested in the market, and refuses to listen to me and buy metals (he claimed he was going to for a while, but he still hasn't), is down 50%.  More if you count redemptions due to his being out of work for two years (being a 55 year old chemical engineer in Houston right now is pretty rough).

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:05 | Link to Comment marc_hanes
marc_hanes's picture

You assume I had any money or investments a year and a half ago or have any now. Neither is true. I live paycheck to paycheck with no savings. I am truly "in it" just for the information for the information's sake.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:46 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You can't even scrape together $10 (then) or $25 (now) for an oz of silver?

Anyways, if you have no savings to protect, then I wouldn't worry about it.  No reason to be on the front lines if you don't have a stake in the outcome of the battle.  My blood pressure is going to kill me sooner or later, and it is mostly from reading this site (the rest is from too much salt), but I have a lot to protect, not just money, but family as well.  If I didn't have those things, you can bet your bottom dollar that I would be on the couch right now drinking a cold, cheap beer (maybe homebrew, if I had time).

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:36 | Link to Comment marc_hanes
marc_hanes's picture

Well, at the age of 43 I have no dependents, my mother and sister follow their own course (they no listen to me). Also, I don't own a couch just a big comfy chair for me and the cats. With no skin in the game I am all about bunkering down quietly and unobtrusively and let those with a stake fight it out, it's their right. I do have about three months worth of food and water (and cat food) under the bed. Small propane cooker, etc. Can't afford a gun. Lots of books and candles. Maybe I spent too much money this past year on Lagunitas, Stone, Bell's, Founders, Smuttynose, Dogfish Head... Well, damn me to hell.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

not everyone here trades/gambles the market marc - some of us read ZH because it's one of the few places that helps one feel sane amidst all the lying and manipulations, be it "governed-mental" or media - as I'm sure you've found. . . many speak of being the only one in their family or immediate circle of friends who "gets" it, and just having a space to tune into that feels familiar keeps us all from falling into the stupor. . .

of course, not everyone here even agrees, and most have a contrary streak a mile wide, but that's to be expected of people who seek alternative explanations to what they're fed - I may not agree with most here, and some are hella obnoxious with it, but all in all, there are some really great voices, well worth trawling threads to find the gems!

I'm long cat food too, heh, and rogue brews. . .

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 19:19 | Link to Comment marc_hanes
marc_hanes's picture

I agree, outside of 401(k) I have never played the market and suspect many ZH readers are also not in financial services directly (I've worked in management consulting, EDGAR filing but mostly retail wine business + 10 years or so of grad school in philosophy). I likewise came/come to ZH for information and/or informed opinion (the rest, well...). But there is a lot more trawling through the trolling to be done these days and, eventually, the law of diminishing returns kicks in. This is also at the root of the frustration Harry W. and I are attempting to express. I would aver that "blowing off steam" on ZH takes a lot of steam out of the willingness to act in the real world. Why do something when you can type "bitchez" all day? In any event, my goal is basic day-to-day survival. If someone wants to start the revolution and they pass the spidey sense test, I may very well join up. Until then, I do not have the resources to foment meaningful change. Even if I don't clip the cats' claws. And, given your word bolding, yes this is my real name, I stand behind my words with it.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

When the financials overlords of history's largest empire are working behind the curtain to keep things propped up, you expect things to move as quickly as in a TV drama?  

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:53 | Link to Comment sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

There is nothing new to learn here.

We are trying to make some people eat a big shit sandwich.

So fuck off.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:08 | Link to Comment marc_hanes
marc_hanes's picture

Thank you for your well-reasoned and thought provoking response. I am certain your efforts are paying off handsomely and the sandwich is being disgested as we type.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:41 | Link to Comment sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

How come I can't edit this now?

Sorry, mate.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I had that problem the other day.  I don't know what's going on with that.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Meatier Shower
Meatier Shower's picture

Once someone replies to your post, you can no longer edit it.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Just guessing but, that's why some people post "." or "-" (periods or slashes) ... & nothing else, early on in a thread ...  so they can come along later & push some of the more relevant comments further down the page.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

@sweet ebony diamond - "There is nothing new to learn here."

Ok. Whatever.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:06 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well Ive been reading zerohedge for 2 years too, and have ended up far better off myself, and well prepared against these lunatics driving us repeatedly into icebergs. The ship is never sinking till its gone, yea.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:19 | Link to Comment fallingman
fallingman's picture

This is the way the world ends: Not with a bang but a whimper.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

On a long enough timeline.......

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:11 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Bingo! Why is that the tagline on this site yet the sentiment is that everything is always ending "imminently"? 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I dont know about you, but I find it nice to see a leader threaten to quit if he does not get his way.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

PIIG collapse priced in ;)

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Ouch, the Oinker is starting to squeal. Time to go long Pork Bellies, No seriously.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

QE2 = Ben to buy Portuguese bonds?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

QE2 = Ben to buy Portuguese bonds?

no more like Ben to buy Portugal

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

It's a nice place to visit.

Vinho Verde is good... fits my budget, too...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

snowballin' now

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Not to gloat, but it was fucking obvious 6 months ago. GS should hire better fucking analysts if you ask me. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/portugals-upcoming-private-debt-problem

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Interesting, Cheeky, that six months later the S&P and Dow are unchanged.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:47 | Link to Comment ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Glad to see you back, we missed you Cheeky. Gloat all you want.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Is this the original Cheeky (and not the impostor)? I've heard so much about you. Hope to see some posts/comments...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

Please stick around CB we need your expertise and input.

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:23 | Link to Comment fallingman
fallingman's picture

welcome back Cheeky ...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:38 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Missed having you around, Cheeky.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment GhershomsRevenge
GhershomsRevenge's picture

November 3rd budget vote. QE2 isn't coming. They are unloading the smokescreens from the truck.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I put two schillings on the opposition caving and accepting the austerity measures.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Steak
Steak's picture

Escudos, you'd bet two escudos :)

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:47 | Link to Comment DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

What the hell is Krugman talking about in that link? So he's saying that prices won't go up in real terms because everyone will get pay increases to offset skyrocketing inflation because QE2 was so wildly successful?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Well, lookee here.

Not to toot my own horn here, but toot toot.

This is what I wrote earlier this AM http://www.zerohedge.com/article/objective-presentation-americas-1-trill... but it seems it was ignored. I also warned about this unfolding scenario 1 week ago here http://www.zerohedge.com/article/weak-pomo-closes-only-660-million-monet...

 

So remember, you read it on ZH first. Even before the Masters of the Universe took notice ;-)

"Portugal Update.

If you don't know what I'm talking about, read my earlier comments (note to TD: I've posted in the comments section what I believe is original and accurate analysis on a less covered topic. You may use it as you wish.)

As promised on the Portugal saga, I'm bringing you breaking news.

Here's the latest. The PSD party (largest opposition party) has just announced the breakdown of negotiations with the Socialist government to approve the budget. The leader of the opposition has scheduled a press conference for 2000 GMT today. Expectations are that he will announce the PSD will abstain in the vote in the name of national interests. I'm not so sure the consensus is right. He may very well announce his party will vote against the budget, which would mean Portugal's CDS will widen considerably, the government would fall and the IMF/EFSF would be on the next flight to Lisbon.

 

Stay tuned. It seems things are getting interesting in the EU again."

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

It's good to be the King.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Hellz yeah!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

..just for a while....

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Count, I have been following your updates, and appreciate you keeping us informed...

Shall 'we' review? 

1. Ireland economy on its back, bank sub-bonds finally getting a haircut, people getting restless.

2. French riots against pension reform. 

3. German exports getting haircut on stronger Euro. 

4. Belgium can't decide to stay together or split up (and who takes the debt with them). 

5. Portugal, see above. 

6. Greece still lying on stats. 

7. Iceland probably will default, finally. 

Yep, EU-land looking GREAT! Nothing to see here, move along...

Bank holiday in 3...2...1...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

I couldn't have said it better myself.

and lets not forget tomorrow there's an EU summit. I can't wait to see Angela put on her meanie face and tell Sarko and friends there will be no more money to "stimulate the economy" (sic).

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

All of this conveniently hitting the headlines this week. 

Euro down = $ up = HellyBenny gets a little $ breathing room for next week

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

There is a very simple mechanism withen Europe to end this farce - the ECB needs to understand that the debts from the Periphery are unrecoverable.

To protect the core Treasuries from the loss of interest revenue and possible capital loss it can revalue its own and the treasuries Gold to at least the European M1 price.

France and Germany's losses from external areas would be balanced and Italy's fiscal debt postion would be secure, also Portugal would be sitting pretty.

Ireland could pay its Gov debt no problem as long as the debts from the shadow banking sector are removed , Spain can do a compromise approach and Greece can renegotiate its fiscal farce.

This will maintain the wealth of the core and also free up the edge to start investing in modern capital projects that would reduce oil intensity.

This Debacle was and is a creature of the ECB and can only be solved by a central bank that at least takes its treasuries seriously when deploying its artillery.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Trouble is who owns all of the periphery gov'ie bonds? Oh, the EU core banks. Take down one periphery - and ALL of the major EU banks will be insolvent overnight (they probably are already). That's the fractional reserve Ponzi for ya...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Their Host treasuries can recapitalize these banks if they are up to their gills in Euro gold - they can make loans based on Industrial goals towards the Euro periphery.

They may be deals that if you provide cheap credit then we buy your host countries goods.

For instance given the high price of oil now - there is a requirement withen Europe for large amounts of Trams in cities over 100,000 people - that's a huge amount of back orders for Alstrom and others.

The problem now is that the Large European banks think that they are completly independent from treasuries due to the fake overpriced euro debt that the ECB issues.

The high priests of the Euro banking system need to be brought into line by a few strong princes with a mandate for change and reformation.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:44 | Link to Comment bearnanke
bearnanke's picture

Much of the EU gold is in the USA... And according to some dude called Jim Rickards it might be an idea for the US government to simple take it, add it to the 8k tons the US has on their own and start their own gold backed currency.. The EU can only pull that off when we kindly request the USA to hand our gold back, please.. you think that would be done with ease?

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/16_Jim_...

@ about 8 minutes...

Pretty scary if you ask me..

Futher good idea, would kick my gold up quite a bit i suppose...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Yes they may be a split in the churches - but then again Rickard's could be sprouting disinformation - who knows in this Old Dark Church we call the Western world.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:51 | Link to Comment e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

ITS ON?!

 

also the math is way too hard when commenting, took me about 2 minutes, then tried to post and Voilaa The answer you entered for the CAPTCHA was not correct.


Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:26 | Link to Comment melachiro
melachiro's picture

Yes, WTH is up with CAPTCHA?

I have a Doctorate for cripes sake yet at can't seem to do simple math?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:57 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

hahahahahahaha

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I got a captcha the other day that said _ +5 = 35....I put 30 and got it wrong? Oh well.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Praetor
Praetor's picture

You folks realise you have to use accounting mathematics as perscribed in the GS and JPM  Maths Handbook don't you? :-)

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 11:56 | Link to Comment yabs
yabs's picture

that article of krugmans is priceless

he seems to think that prices go up due to increased demand thus signifying QE2 works

No dickhead prices go up in dollar terms because people want to escape

paper money that you are trashing this piling into tangible assets thaT PEOPLE NEED to protect wealth

It has f*ck all to do with demand due to economic growth just money moving from one place to another

what a dickhead

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:11 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Krugman sees nothing thru his rose colored glasses but sugar coated mountains and plains and lollipops. You know, like Harry Wanger.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment GhershomsRevenge
GhershomsRevenge's picture

Educated are always the easiest conned. So many false assumptions to have to reach through. This is the mother of all setups. Bernanke's got every over educated financial drone suckered in with the Fed's "secret" POMO activities. Wow you guys really got ahead of him, sure know what he's doing next. He's pulling the plug next Wednesday. A new congress, a European crisis, and J6P army caught up in a mortgage scandal is all the cover he needs for absolution.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I've reached the same conclusion.  Smoke and mirrors.  Bottom line is that the USG must have foreign buyers of their bonds just to survive.  The bond market does not lie and it is too big to be manipulated (for long).  Right now it is practically screaming deflation!

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:07 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

Educated... with conditioning.

Forget educated, get enlightened.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The dominos fall.

As the situation in Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Iceland and many others worsens then the political winds will change (as they already did in Ireland): the New Austerity will turn against bondholders who'll get offered steep haircuts a la Anglo Irish. 

But this is only a transitional phase to a more desperate and radicalized political climate. 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:10 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yes, the dominoes are falling once again. Just like they did last week and the week before and the week before....

Ireland was news for a couple of days here with something horrible "imminent", just as Greece was, just as Portugal was (let's bring that one out again). And what about all those horrible French protests that would bring the country to its knees? 

As I said, some day, everything collapses but to continue to make it sound like it's moments away is getting really old.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think HarryWanger is scared out of his damn mind myself. 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:38 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Harry would be the perfect poker player to play against. Always remembering vividly the big pots he won, and never the losses he gave up. Wall Street loves your mentality. It keeps them going and going.. until you're whimpering asking others for cash.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

OK. Lets take a step back and see what can be done. 

a) China can step in and buy Portuguese bonds the same way it did with Greek debt and thus effectively enter the Portuguese market in a big [and lets admit, cheap way]. The export oriented Chinese economy could benefit from Portugal' geographical position and it could serve as the last European export point for Chinese goods. Greece already is becoming the first "import" one. Not only that, but by buying up bonds China would effectively have 2 countries which could vote, in EU Parliament, in favor of policies that would directly benefit China. But that scenario is less likely to occur.

b) EMU members could [and probably will in the next 2 years] form a supra-national EU treasury with absolute fiscal and monetary authority over sovereign fiscal and monetary authority of individual countries. What this means is complete federalization of EU. AEP has written about this in May and Sarkozy mentioned it in May as well. In my humble opinion this is the most probable outcome. Not only because it would level out the playing field re: borrowing [think EUR as USD], but also because "core" countries such as Germany and France could benefit from such an arrangement. The borrowing would most probably work in the same way it does for US [on national and municipal level]. 

 

In short; Portugal is even more fucked than GRE [read the linked article to see why] and even if GRE does "survive", POR will not [see, again, the article linked above]. So, to generalize, its either a) China "saves" it b) EU forms a supra to deal with this.

 

But I may be wrong. 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Or it could be C) Portugal collapses and leaves the euro

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

no

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:20 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

And why is that? Because there's too much political capital invested in the euro project, which is essential to keep the EU together? Granted that is true, and granted that they will do everything they can to keep the euro together.

However, that does not mean they will succeed. One thing is intent, another alltogether different thing is capability. I don't think they have the capability. They can buy time but it's inevitable IMO.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Are you fucking serious ? Keep the fatalism on the down-low. 

It is *NOT LIKELY* because 

a) if Portugal defaults and leaves the EU it loses billions in EU funding

b) if new currency is introduced the trade will effectively be halted for a year, 2 years because all the trade agreements and contracts are denominated in EUR 

b) all treaties, agreements, policies, votes, laws, regulations etc etc enacted by EU Parliament become void

d) thus EU desolves

 

Now, tell me. Is that more likely to occur, or is a supra more likely to be formed to deal with these issues.


Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Cheeky,

I follow your logic. Believe me my conclusion is that d) will eventually happen.

And I say this with some knowledge of how the whole thing works.

I'm not going to boast of my credentials but I do know what I'm talking about, so yes, I am serious. I have been saying the dissolution of the EU is only a matter of time since 1999 (and yes I took a shitload of flak for such an unPC opinion. You call it fatalism, I call it the realities of geopolitics and history).

But you are right in that there are only 2 options. a) federalism and b) dissolution.

I don't think a middle ground is possible any longer. And 2000 years of history vs EU's 60 years of existence in a cold war scenario tells me that option b) is more likely than option a).

And yes, I am fucking serious, unfortunately.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

No, no. You got me wrong. d) is a certainty as is disintegration. 

But my time-view is the next 10 years, not next 50. Next 50 years means absolutely nothing for me.

What I am saying is that, ATM, the interest of Europe is above the interest of any particular nation. If you do, indeed, have credentials as you say you do; you know why that is so. 

Current situation will be resolved with federalism, but as stratification within the federation progresses, the probability of violent disintegration will increase. 

Once you go strata, conflict is a certainty. But when will that happen, no one knows. M

My opinion is that not before all of Europe is integrated and federalized. So, think in the net 35-50 years.

 

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:13 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Oh, OK. So we're saying the same thing essentially except you think it'll take longer than I expect.

I also don't expect the federalism experiment to get very far. I've sat in on numerous meetings in Brussels and I don't recall one single national civil servant being favorable to the idea. Now Commission civil servants are a different matter. They're mostly die hard federalists but I guess that comes with the job description.

Bottom line: yes the elite will try to push federalism as the only option to avoid a return to the nation state and never ending conflicts (Europe's "natural" state). And yes it's in everyone's interest, specially business interests on both sides of the Atlantic, for the EU experiment to succeed. I just don't think that the mood in the actual Member States' populations will permit it.

I guess we'll see how it turns out. I hope I'm wrong and we get at least another 35-50 years of peace, but I suspect it'll dissolve much sooner than most people expect (the ones that actually expect it to dissolve - which is far from consensual at the moment).

My guess is less than 5 years of EU left. We maybe see a dual track EU as an intermediate step (ie a core around Germany, France and Benelux and a 2nd circle around the rest), but that won't last long IMO.

 

Anyway, good "outside the box" discussion. That's why I've been coming to ZH for 2 years now.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:03 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

CDM, aren't Burqua's, immigration, islamophobia, the french/general gypsy issue, geert wilders and the like th ereal "burning" issues driving the ship of the EU state right now? 

In the larger scheme, I think the population has been programmed into being jerked around on these issues, so that they could be easily and conveniently distracted at this time.

Maybe they trump the monetary question at this point of the game?

FWIW, my view is spontaneous combustion in the midst of the coming currency conflagaration.

If anything, Cheeky bastard's Supra is the BIG supra, transnational, not just EU.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 19:59 | Link to Comment zelter
zelter's picture

The monetary question and the existential question go hand in hand, actually. As Europeans, the only "programming" we've ever received was towards accepting race-replacement immigration, no matter the long-term civilisational, social and economic loss, by both people or factions who loathe us and wish to deny us our nationhood and the corporate globalist elite for whom the free flow of cheap labour dovetails with their belief in the free flow of capital and trade. For these people, it doesn't matter that their ideology will destroy long-existing cultures and populations. They don't even feel guilty about what they're doing. "Anti-racism" gives them a clean conscience. Immigration, and browbeating all opposition, keeps the ponzi going, and we want it to collapse, as well as repudation of all debt.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:19 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

Formal G-20 accords are unnecessary to bring about a more reliable reserve structure — the sensible evolution toward gold replacing the U.S. dollar/bond as the central reserve asset has been progressing these past several years and will continue to do so, each nation led in this direction by Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” (self interest) such that they shall naturally arrive at a new Nash equilibrium centered around MTM gold as the central reserve asset. Note that I specified ‘reserve asset‘ because there is no real need for a primary ‘reservecurrency‘ — international trade can be invoiced simply based on the monetary particulars of the two nations involved in any given import/export transaction

link

They all have plenty of gold reserves.

Float physical gold, mark to market all reserves.

There's your Supra. Problem(s) solved.

The market will not take a complicated course when there is a simple one available.

It's Evolution, Baby

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:31 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I wouldn't bet on the Germans ceding more financial control to the EU.  I don't see how it would be in their best interest to do so.  Perhaps there is something I am missing?

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:08 | Link to Comment zelter
zelter's picture

Germany is an export nation with little resources and will collapse without international and EU trade, the latter of which has been historically hugely in its favour, forcing the PIIGS into gobbling up its trade surplus to their detriment -- only secondary to the banksters in scope and size.

Unfortunately, exiting the race to the bottom now rather than when it's completely forced to will cause less losses in terms of lives, economy and future. Unfortunately -- because the politicians and the masses won't want to do it.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Steak
Steak's picture

fwiw us Portuguese are used to being dirt poor.  we will survive this :)

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:06 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Seriously. That's not even a slam. In the run-up to the end of oil we're all going to be learning how to get by with a lot less. I mean 95% less. Of everything. Meaning e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g. Except for the uber-wealthy and the tyrants, we're going back to simpler and meaner times.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:07 | Link to Comment scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

IMO a supra-national EU treasury will not fly.

Just as you can not form an alloy of mud and metal, you will not be able to create a unified EU made up of strong countries with weak ones like Portugal.... in the long run.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:10 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

They like it, they really like it....Norway likes it!  Somebody get Norway on the line - the yield is amazing...waaaaay better than that shitty Greece stuff.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment BostonTettierOwner
BostonTettierOwner's picture

When that last, most obstinate and intellectually challenged Nobel-prize winning shaman of Keynesianism, Paul Krugman finally espouses this view, that will mark the end of the Fed, and will return gold to its rightful place

sounds pretty dogmatic to me  , to quote a certain wise man : ideals are not for idealists

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

No doubt CDS spreads are tighter on this news.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

King Phillip?  "The ships have come in.  They're not yours."

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Aductor
Aductor's picture

At least they are talkning austerity measures. There is awareness but not the will. Here? I'm not so sure.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:01 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Keep in mind that who defaults first defaults best. They have everyone else to bail them out. Whoever turns out the lights on the global economy gets zippo. And I don't mean a lighter.

The US is exporting pain in every direction as fast as possible, default by printing. I don't think for a millisecond the US is going to lose the race to bankruptcy. The entire planet is bailing us out, all the way to the bottom, to the least homeowner. Give it a few years, it will be obvious what has happened. We'll be lucky if someone doesn't send an army across the sea to kick our asses for being so clever.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We'll be lucky if someone doesn't send an army across the sea to kick our asses for being so clever.

Why send an army when a few nuclear missiles are so much more efficient. Hell, if 19 hijackers can pull off 9/11, think of all the fun a real "state" can have? Maybe that's about the time our government rolls out an alien invasion of the third kind as the next evil empire to rally against.

Not that there's anything wrong with being an alien. Some of my best friends are aliens. Probe anyone?

<sarcasm way off>

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:57 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I figure a real army with real bullets because that's how you hold territory. Anyone going to the trouble of kicking our asses for being clever is going to want us to pay their expenses for the service. Land will do for that, thanks.

Nukes haven't changed much in the realm of invasion logic. Nobody is going to use them, certainly not on their own soil nor on soil they covet. All those ICBMs will be so much radioactive rust by and by. But beware the standing army with an itch to do something profitable.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 20:34 | Link to Comment Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

But beware the standing army with an itch to do something profitable.

Too true, too true. Looking at history it seems like "beware the large standing army" means the same thing by proxy. On that note, sort this list by Active / 1000 capita, compare China to the US then look at the current free-standing size.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_troops

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

I think an EMP would be a better thank you note instead of sending an army against the hundreds of millions guns held by individuals in the USA... no army would ever attempt to invade the USA, and if they did, they would face an insurgency that makes Iraq and Afpak look like childs play.

 

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:05 | Link to Comment masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Some nation out there has an army that could defeat, say Texas?

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:41 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

There will be a day in the not too distant future when the price of gold will rise at least $100/day.  The manipulators are firing their last bullets before the election, but instead of a $100 correction, they can manage only $20.  It is interesting that Chilton's CFTC comments have not found traction in the MSM.  The daily propagandists know not to step on any toes; they may be accidentally suicided.  The new year should be very interesting, especially QTR1 when, IMO, there should be a convergence of CAT 5 headwinds.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:33 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I've been buying TZA in little chunks from a very limited budget since March and intend to keep at until the markets finally do go south in a big way. What goes up .... 

I just keep reminding myself that triple leverage works both ways and that shit eventually turns to stone and rolls downhill. As far as I'm concerned if Uncle Ben wants to give me a chance to buy TZA at 15, then 10, then 5 so much the better. I never expected to get rich overnight with TZA, but I'm not selling a share until it hits 200, which it will.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Friday morning 10 a.m Portugal is being foreclosed and will be auctioned off at 2.30 pm,it will henceforth be known as Portugal Goldman 2010 after this time.Now thats what you call eating a shit sandwich.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Wed, 10/27/2010 - 15:24 | Link to Comment count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Breaking News - Portugal Update

 

The PSD (opposition) just announced they will wait until the last day before the budget vote (next Tuesday - vote is Wednesday) before deciding their vote.

Basically this throws the ball back into the government's court and leaves open the possibility of more negotiations until then.

Breaking it down: it's a draw, and we're heading into overtime. I wonder how those CDS will react?

I have a feeling they'll end up abstaining, but that won't really do much of anything to relieve the pressure. And ther's a general strike coming up next month. Should be fun.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 16:29 | Link to Comment zalexs
zalexs's picture

Haha. Once more when we are up close, we see the MSM is crap, utter crap.

It is about time that journalist clowns know that  Budgets in Portugal don't matter.

The last one had an error of more than 250%. It ended 9.3% deficit. This year if not for some extraordinary Portugal Telecom Pension Funds - that later would weight in big way in Future deficits-  the debacle would be similar.

The Budget in Portugal doesn't matter, why everyone is so upset by a piece of paper that doesn't matter?

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 16:35 | Link to Comment zalexs
zalexs's picture

Politics 101 for Portugal

 

Bloco de Esquerda - 10% Trotskists Socialists

PCP- 10% Communists Socialists

PS- 35% Socialists Socialists  -  Minority Government

PSD- 30% Social Democrats Socialists

CDS- 10% Conservative Socialists.

 

All of them like debt, all of them can't see the country without debt.

All of them make noises when rates from BCE are more then 2%.

All of them think that 3% deficit is too low.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I gotta love Portugal .. while I stand no longer amazed at the reaction these sorts of words generate

Not worth "insulting" international bankers or the IMF, "which does not bind us to anything"

- President Cavaco Silva

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=pt&...

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Thu, 02/24/2011 - 01:36 | Link to Comment shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

The Portuguese newspapers yesterday had a good spread on the budget impasse. My family has been bringing up the topic regularly over the past month. The re-emergence of a budget crisis seems anything but a rumor, though Socrates's threat to quit is a bit outlandish. Why would a politician forgo demonizing the opposition for another month or two? Without the budget he won't have much else to do.

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