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Post Revolution, Tunisia CDS Still About 100 bps Tighter Than Illinois

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As China's president heads over to Barack's home town, we wonder if he is aware that according to the market, Chicago is in a state whose credit risk is about 100 basis points wider compared to a post-revolutionary Tunisia. Despite the country's recent presidential coup, and subsequent downgrade by Moodys to Baa2, the African nation's CDS, which spiked from 120 to 180 bps, is still just 100 basis points inside the CDS of Illinois. And this still assumes 80 cent recovery. We wonder how long before one or more Vallejo precedents reprice the entire CDS muni curve. Should the default recovery be dropped from 80 to, say, 20, it would get very interesting...

Tunisia CDS:

And Illinois. Note the actual levels.

 


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Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Malcolm Tucker
Malcolm Tucker's picture

How 4130 US government "economists" got it wrong!

http://fedupmontrealer.blogspot.com/2011/01/4130-us-government-economists-got-it.html

And a video of a man often mocked and ridiculed who got it right!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Rahm, bitchez!

LOL

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

let Hu and Obama go to Tunisia and hand out food and relief

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Just let them be food.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Segestan
Segestan's picture

Except you're food .. Right?  Thats the problem with western mindset... I'm agonna helpin ahem!!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Gotta catch me first, slugmo.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Well bang dae ho with a long duk dong!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

I thought Barack's home town was Jakarta?

</sarc>

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Nairobi, geez....

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

Sorry, I guess I didn't read the fine print on the birther signs.  However, I just checked Wikipedia, and it would seem that both are "valid" conspiracies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_citizenship_conspiracy_theories

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:31 | Link to Comment Jerome Lester H...
Jerome Lester Horwitz's picture
Hawaii governor can't find Obama birth certificate

'Abercrombie did not report to the newspaper that he or the Hawaii Department of Health had found Obama's long-form, hospital-generated birth certificate. The governor only suggested his investigations to date had identified an unspecified listing or notation of Obama's birth that someone had made in the state archives.

"It was actually written, I am told, this is what our investigation is showing, it actually exists in the archives, written down," Abercrombie said.'

So I hope this finally settles it. The governor says that something is written down somewhere in the State of Hawaii archives by someone. He may not be able to locate the long form Birth Certificate but somebody wrote something down somewhere in the state archives and that should be good enough for anyone who has any doubts about his place of birth! Disregard the fact that we don't know who wrote what or wrote it when or what they actually wrote about Obama's birth but take comfort that the Governor of Hawaii knows that somebody wrote something.

Hawaii governor can't find Obama birth certificate http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=252833#ixzz1BXROAvos

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

Ha beat me to it.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

As an IL resident - makes perfect sense...

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:30 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Hey!  Obambi sez we are all rich!

(Libs rush to buy more iCit)

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment weinerdog43
weinerdog43's picture

But you conservadorks bought 'em all before we could get there. 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Putting 2 + 2 together -- it sounds like Illinois NEEDS A REVOLUTION!

 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:45 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

Would only seem fair considering the state government put 2 + 2 together, and somehow came up with 6.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Cheaper in Africa than in the US... the FED is doing a bang up job!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Cheaper in Africa than in the US... the FED is doing a bang up job!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:01 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

This makes perfect sense to me.  In this case I think the markets are getting it right.

I sold all my munis 2 years ago.  I was 1.5 years too early, but I can't say that missing out on 2% interest really hurt me that much.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Perhaps if Chicago has a revolution and government overthrow their credit spreads will drop.

 

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 07:28 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Did i hear someone say revolution? Join our mostly peaceful group. I did say mostly peaceful. The usa took hawaii without firing a shot. Mohammed took medina peacefully when others counseled meeting force with force and no one can forget that the thoreau-inspired ghandi freaked the british out so much they didnt know what to do. I mean what do you do when people que up peacefully, take a reservation number, and wait patiently for their beating? All the time smiling at you? It was freaky to the soldiers, the stuff of nightmares..of course dont forget ghandis words.....first they laugh at you........but i digress.....if u want revolution then join us. Kprice1670@gmail.com. i am not ghandi, but we have an opening in the peaceful wing of the organization. All would be ghandis are welcome to apply. No reference check.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Vallejo has changed the curve, in the later articles about it they are wanting to give bond holder 5 to 20 cents on the dollar.  Tomorrow is going to be one crazy day.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 00:26 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

buy the dips~!

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 07:48 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It is the buyers who will get dipped, I'm afraid.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 06:53 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Every sov and state is running on a credit card........that is running out.

 

Let that sink in.......really hard.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 07:18 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

This would be a great.arbitrage opportunity because at least in illinois they have the tranny balls to.raise taxes 70 percent.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 07:36 | Link to Comment shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

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