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Presenting The Baltic Fat Finger Index

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The chart below, while obviously a misprint, is certainly quite amusing, and provides a serendipitous look at what may happen once HFTs have bled stocks, options, exchange traded bonds, OTC derivatives, and lastly FX, dry of all adverse selection participation. Perhaps in 5 years all we will have to look forward to are massive self-reinforcing feedback looping, momentum swings, in pretty much anything and everything (alternatively, this "print" is as good an approximation of the true state of the world economy as any, should one eliminate the monetary and fiscal crutches that have propped up the global economy for the past 2+ years). In the meantime, we await to see what the first real BDIY print of the year will be. That said, the one carryover theme from 2010 is that good is good and bad is gooder, so should the BDIY really faceplant by 27% overnight we expect a new all time high in the S&P shortly thereafter.

h/t Sean

 

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Mon, 01/03/2011 - 14:54 | 844704 uno
uno's picture

dow is almost at the 2000 peak 11750, and the oex is at a 61.8% retrace from the 2007 peak.  Good time as any for a pullback.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:02 | 844719 KickIce
KickIce's picture

But interest rates are going up which is a sign of a healthy economy since obviously no one is concerned about the strength of our currency or our ability to repay.  We are the US of A for crying out loud, the rest of the world needs us.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:24 | 844772 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

As Max Keiser says, fraud is the biggest product coming out of this country as of late and certainly no ships are required to send that abroad.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:40 | 844824 KickIce
KickIce's picture

rofl, how long till they work them into the GDP numbers.  A category like "Balance Sheet Enhancement" might work.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:09 | 844896 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Already have a well-known word for that: Financial Engineering.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:23 | 845729 Dburn
Dburn's picture

Depends if the fraudsters want everything not nailed down. Then everything must go including; massive amounts of office furniture, home furnishings, complete homes, your dog, office supplies, dry food and a few nukes before we get to natural resources. These fuckers plan to take everything.  and as George Carlin said "They're gonna get it too, they're gonna get it all"

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:03 | 844721 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

It does't feel like there will ever be a pull back. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:12 | 844744 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

There probably won't. On the few days the PDs don't stand idly ready to pump the market with liquidity received for being complicit in the FRB's blatant monetization scheme, the PPT is there to pick up the pieces.

The entire economy has become the equivalent of selling a giant out-of-money put option. On practically all days, it's profitable, but one day it will be one hell of a loss. Fat tails, bitchez!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:12 | 844742 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

No, No and no

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:01 | 844717 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

 

2010 ~

 

..." As for supply, Nokta is predicting that ship buyers will cancel or delay a huge number of dry-bulk vessels ordered back during the flush boom years and slated for delivery in 2010. Citing a shipyard database complied by Clarkson's, the British ship broker, Nokta said that 355 capesize vessels -- the largest dry-bulk carriers in the world -- are scheduled to hit the water this year. That would increase the number of capesize ships in existence (about 950) by about 37%.".....

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:06 | 844733 system failure
system failure's picture

why stop now, to the moon, nobody is playing anymore, so what difference does it make. Dream big and lie like hell about how great things are and tell all of your friends to buy a chevy, max out your credit cards, and enjoy the party while it lasts. They can just come get you, lock you up in prison, and release you to work in the fields to produce their goods for the slave masters. Until then, party everyday until you are chained as a slave for sure, heh....

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:10 | 844741 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Meanwhile, the bernank engineers a

massive global bubble as the world

economy sputters.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:15 | 844750 thepigman
thepigman's picture

James Brown and Robert Palmer for

the sell side.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acsmo1vCoiM

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:09 | 844743 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Bizzaro. Look at BAC. Up 6pc. Nothing could explain that except a predatory short squeeze.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:13 | 844748 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Headline this morning said they'd settled their putback issue - that's whats behind the big move.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:16 | 844752 thepigman
thepigman's picture

They settle for 10% of it, GSEs take

90% of the hit, and we pay for it.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:36 | 845752 rocker
rocker's picture

Ben Bernanke in front of Congress, "I will not monetize".    How can all this be ?   Better "Buy the Fukn Dip"  Again !

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:21 | 844764 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

This is a perfect example of the bad reporting.

 

It isn't the only putback issue they are facing, or will be facing.  But the boob tube makes it sound like it has cleaned up the only one outstanding.

 

Everybody that is eating a loss from that crap they sold is joining a class action suit.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:28 | 844961 Cursive
Cursive's picture

And this is the same BAC that has NO earnings. Guess I can't quibble about the P/E.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:11 | 844745 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

3 digit BDI before march is out.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:17 | 844756 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Hah! Still in cash, still in Puts on SPY IWM USO GLD SLV, little money at "work"!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:25 | 844770 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

Looks like fat fingers in SLV, gold the last 10 minutes. Also oil is dumping.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:25 | 844776 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Tyler,

Man, I love this chart.  What I love most about this chart is the fact that no one talks about it anymore.  Funny how the cool kids use ya and throw you away.

Folks are talking about Facebook, man.  In just one day, Goldman priced the company at $50 billion...and just this afternoon, a criminal syndicate Wall Street banker upped that price to $100 billion.  A double intraday!  Sweet!  $100 billion for an entity that helps people to better navel gaze.  Now that is an important subject.

Tyler, how much raw material and finished goods get shipped around the globe...that does not matter this year.

Cdad

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:35 | 844809 bogey4
bogey4's picture

I don't understand.  My B Berg chart shows the Baltic Dry Index at 1773 with a last print on 12/24.  What am I missing?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:12 | 844909 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

It is a misprint

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:15 | 844922 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

missing nothing. They have been closed due to holiday since the 24th. I expect current numbers after today though.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 15:45 | 844830 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That shart looks like Titanic just sunk.

 

Another bleak forecast:

Since a few years, I've been watching the jobmarket pretty close and I've seen to have noticed a small trend indicator of the economy.

The jobmarket to watch is actually Marketing & Communication. Whenever bad new was being reported, a few months before that, Marketing jobs went away. At arround newyear last year, there where suddenly about 3 times more job offerings in marketing in just a matter of months. And those grew untill the summer.

Now suddenly, the number of Marketing jobs has bottomed to near zero. Actually I've never seen it that bad.

The reason why I mention this is because Marketing uses a 1 year forecast model linked on investments and growth forecasts.

And now I tend to believe that this years investment plans are going to hit rock bottom and sales might be facing for impact.

Normally Marketing expenditures are between 2 & 5% of the turnover. 2 starting from BtoB and 5% for retail.

So if a company starts hiring agressivly on all channels, they might be upon something big.

If you hear rumors about sacking them, it's bad.

These job numbers are now even lower then 2008!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:24 | 844946 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

bingo.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:08 | 845599 halvord
halvord's picture

Nice! Thank you for solid reasoned commentary.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:05 | 844884 system failure
system failure's picture

Since no more goods actually ship anymore, I am forced to eat plain bread sandwiches during the week. Then on Friday night we add peanut butter to them. Hell on Saturday night we get crazy and add jelly with that peanut butter. And then we top off the week on Sunday, the day of worship and to have something to be thankful for we have our meat for the week by eating hot dogs. Times are great here in the States. Thank you Obama for the change...

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:48 | 845203 JoeStocks
JoeStocks's picture

This site hasn't updated in several weeks.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:02 | 845228 Pat Hand
Pat Hand's picture

No lid on this right now.  Yes, I know, fundamentals suck.  But Fed backstopping plus money has been on the sidelines...

+10% January on no news

Europe is muddling along

 "you can't fight the tape".  Overvalued my cute little ass.  $85 trailing SP earnings, $96 consensus for 2011.  PEs low.  Earnings yield at 90% percentile.  There are no good investments but equities are on the way up, for now.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:02 | 845341 sunny
sunny's picture

Six PM EST and still no update of the BDI.  This seems strange.  Anyone have a clue what is going on, why they aren't doing the numbers, other than it probably Benny's fault?

sunny

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:46 | 845770 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

There is a reason the BDI fell.

Queensland Australia has had some record breaking rainfall and floods.

75% of all mines that supply half the Worlds coking coal are shut in or flooded (open cuts)

We, this morning stood down all workforce except maintenance crews. for 3 weeks minimum

All Rail lines that supply the port loaders are either underwater or damaged.

We called Force Majeure last Friday. This means cancellation of Booked bulk carriers without claim.

Want to hire a Panamax -35+ are sitting off Hay Point rusting gently.

http://www.cnbc.com//id/40848686

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/australia-floods-hit-commodity-exports/article1856325/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/8230182/Australian-floods-send-coal-prices-soaring.html

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 07:30 | 846076 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Coal, the new black gold.

 

Who would have thought. This will be a year of such twists and turns, tighter and tighter.

Rusting gently, eh? nice touch.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wrodpress.com

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:42 | 845844 vainamoinen
vainamoinen's picture

"Full speed ahead Captain, full speed ahead".

(Too young to remember? - Yellow Submarine!)

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 02:49 | 845969 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

shipping rates are coming down but for a better picture of freight being shipped, the harpex index gives a clearer picture than just a 3 month bdi

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?showData=true&period=3&...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!