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Presenting The Countries Most Exposed To A Nuclear Backlash
Following the nuclear power plant explosions in Japan over the weekend, the next step once the world gets over its shock, will almost certainly be a worldwide adverse response against any future nuclear developments (explaining the action in shares of Exelon and Areva). It will likely also see countries that have a substantial exposure to nuclear power plants be pressured to migrate to other sources of energy. Below we present a list of the 30 countries that have the largest exposure to nuclear power generation. At the top are Lithuania, France, Slovakia Belgium and Ukraine, all of whom see at least 50% of their energy needs satisfied by nuclear sources. The US is further back, at 20.2% as of 2009 (equivalent to an energy output of roughly 800 TWh). German is at 26.1% while the UK is at 17.9%. It is possible that many of the countries listed below could see social unrest based on concerns of developments comparable to those in Japan, with the respective governments promptly forced to do the old song and dance how nuclear power is the safest available... until the black swan event occurs and it isn't.
PS: we have been advised that the Lithuanian power plant has shut down in the period since the last update by the WNA, which means that the French are on top.
Source: World Nuclear Association
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The announcement that the Japanese evacuation zone has been increased to 3,000 km will be an eye opener.
LOL.
Can anyone explain to me why natgas price has barely budged? I'm really tempted to back up the truck.
NYMEX won't see any increased demand, and LNG cargoes are still better off going elsewhere. No effect. However, builders of gas-fired power seem like a good play.
Tokyo geiger counter shows radiation levels are increasing!
http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/03/breaking-news-tokyo-geiger-counter...
And it's now being reported that the German gov't is pulling out reporters and staff from Japan. What do they know?
Can you sell irrationality ? - yes you can.
At this point, I don't see that Europe (for instance) has much of a choice. What are they going to go hog wild for wind and solar now?...back to dirty coal? Give me a break.
WOW! The EU is reviewing shutdowns of nuke facilities... are they preparing for something as well? Japan never thought they would see an 8.9. What if a 9.5 struck the EU?
Japan also sits on a tectonic 3-way which the EU isn't invited to.
This will create a V-shaped opportunity to long Nuke power and uranium stocks imho - BP style.
Caused by what? The Old Madrid fault?
I love random ZH chuckles as I slave away at my desk. My thanks to you, good sir/madam, for providing the first one for this day.
Back on thread, however...been reading up on the Thorium alternative that some of you fine ZH'ers have mentioned...seems very promising, hope these recent events don't kill whatever minor efforts are going into LFTR research...
Also with anything, especially nuclear power, it has to be done right. They could build them better, but that would take more money, and of course, all the rules here in america make them needlessly expensive (not through saftey regs), which also means they'd tend to cut corners to shave off costs. That has to change. Insurance and amitorization, are the main issues. Solve that, and it IS easily solved...Gov't insures for catastrophe (as if it doesn't indirectly anyways), and a mere change in the rate of amitorization (a simple law).
Also as many have stated, many of the japanese plants having trouble are either a) are of older and less safe designs, B) some have known faults, C) built near faults and the sea which is about the worst thing that can happen [who thought this was a good idea]? What dumbasses.
The future of Nuclear power is much safer, however if put ANYTHING right on/near a faultline, how could it be safe? Daycare or Nuclear power. The structure can't be expected to survive, especially when place next to an ocean. People have to understand the limits of things. It is pure hubris to put a nuclear plant next to a sea, which is next to a major faultline. One thing is for damn sure. If something can be seen coming, someone on the news will say, 'who could of seen it coming'. Obviously not the journalists.
I just wish the engineers in Japan had all the info available, sadly I'm sure they do not. Spheroids might not matter if you can't get water in, but still they should be aware of the 7-10x heat dissapation improvement as opposed to simply water or other coolant. It only takes a couple of days to design and implement it. (that is if the person isn't a dumbass)
Old design + known flaws + earthquake zone + tsunami = about the worst the nuclear industry could suffer from, and most of it, is unlikely to be repeated, if sane people are allowed to act. Of course, we can only be sure by shutting down the plants with similar flaws, similar disaster locations, etc. That has to be done, but not at the expense of not licensing much safer ones, in safer areas. We can't be scared, but must be prudent. Sadly, like everything else, if we don't wisen up quickly, we'll make the idiot decision, like we have pretty much exclusively my entire life (and I've noticed the whole fucking time).
But building them in safer areas, with much better tech, different fuels, etc is a completely different beast. Too bad the mainstream media will paint all nuclear reactors as bascially the same (or harp on it for an hour with perhaps two seconds every other day that one person might say one short thing about old, flaws, rare earthquake, rarer tsunami...talk about black swan). Again, if most people just realized that nuclear power plants were glorified steam power plants, it would be much easier to understand that the key is being able to properly separate and cool the materials. Older reactors, didn't do a very good job of it design wise. Newer designs are much better and safer, and no doubt will find improvements based on this disaster unfolding before us.
We have to be real about this, WWIII over oil would equivocate to how many nuclear plants going haywire? (wind/solar is a junk boondoggle waste), and no one wants to fund fusion. (and if the bahrain-ians have anything to say about it, we may find out that question soon if half of saudi's oil is taken offline)
There's no graphite in these Japan nuclear reactors [the ones mentioned](what made chernoybl so bad), so hopefully the MOX or whatever that was listed yesterday, doesn't act in graphite's stead. But who knows, we'll find out, I'm sure of it. Why did they need this? Who decided to make things potentially far worse? For what benefit? more electricity generated? how much? 2 percent? for 1000x risk?
Of course, through all of this, a manhattan style fusion program must be undertaken, so that by the end of the life cycle of today's generation's of plants are scheduled to come offline in a few decades, we'll actually have something to replace it.
Gas isn't our future, wind/solar isn't....only nuclear until fusion. If we fuck ourselves out of nuclear (because of idiocy), and won't do fusion, we fuck ourselves out of any chance to be #winners. Which would be a charlie sheen shame.
A 9.5 in the EU?
That's not Richter, but alcohol per mille.
Neither does Japan. They will replace nuclear with nuclear, it will be generations newer than these old plant and much, much safer.
i just wonder with those kind of Hydrogen Explosions , whos standing there to take stock of the situation
Switzerland has already today suspended license applications for new nuclear power plants.
http://tinyurl.com/6enat5l
Power, Gas and Carbon prices across Europe going parabolic.
NATURAL GAS.
Of course the wise Obama has already made his bets on "battery" (read gm and ge).
Talk about being on the wrong side of the trade AGAIN.
What was that "change you can believe in" and "winning the future"....WTF?
I think US involvement in Afghanistan and it's continuing pressure on Pakistan over the IPI pipeline from Iran make it pretty clear about where the US is placing its long bets.
Someone was telling my yesterday shorting Shaw would be dangergous..anyway it just gapped down 20% crikey.
A stupid knee jerk reaction. When was the last time you saw an earthquake of magnitude in France?
When was the last time that major decisions on national energy policy were made rationally and for the good of the general public?
3-words: Three Mile Island.
That one had it all - panic, irrationality, totally blown-out-of-proportions response, knee-jerk national policy decisions, screwed the general public.
And don't forget the exquisitely-timed release of The China Syndrome, only two weeks before TMI.
Indeed! Proof-positive that God has a wonderful, and sometimes nasty, sense of humor.
Indeed! Unreasonable actions could come out of this big time!
1789-1815, 1870, 1914-18, 1940-45, and when Johnnie Depp moved to Paris.
Thats not the point...the fact is that politically support was on a knife edge before this crisis, in Switzerland there is no chance that in local referendums locals would approve a Nuclear Plant now, you won't be able to "buy" them off now. With plants due to go off line from 2019 the government will need to look at alternatives (i.e. Gas) quickly...it changes everything.
"Switzerland is considered at a low to moderate risk of earthquakes. Experts believe an earthquake of magnitude 6 could be expected around once a century and a destructive powerful quake of magnitude 7 only once every 1,000 years." - So its a risk to consider.
There was a 3.9 today in Portugaul? And a smaller one around 2.2 in Spain? Not confirmed, just heard it from a friend on the phone. Exceptionally rare supposedly.
Not showing up on the map.
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
isn't that interesting Juslite.
On another thread a few hours ago, I said they must shut down (everywhere) and has the usual band of folks coem out and call me a fool.
As for Europe and earthquakes, try this, from January 5th this year, suddenly looking a little, shall we say, pre-scient.
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/stairwell-sigtar/
Nothing is safe anymore. Uncertain world meets population used to a degree of certainity.
ORI
ORI, how many names do you have? i have one more for you. the pre dict or. you are very calm in nature to have instincts such as you have. i am not a predictor, just a watc her.
On another thread a few hours ago, I said they must shut down (everywhere) and has the usual band of folks coem out and call me a fool.
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Well, yes.
Luddite might work too.
.
Lisbon has been whacked in the past:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisbon_earthquake
A mega-thrust of similar magnitude to Sendai....
Just picked up more CCJ at 29.05.
Good move, my hands are strong and I have nibbled on some more. The fundamental underlying demand for U has not changed.
this will kill the electric car,.,.the newest large user of electric power grid, which cannot use coal, oil, nat gas or nuke stations to fill the need for more power.
seems like buggy whips and buggy makers are going into a boom..ride em cowboys.
Where the hell is the air car. Been waiting for India to start shipping. My $4,000.00 is burning a hole in my "buy guns" pocket.
they say electric cars will run on perma electromagnetic fields devices. Some interesting videos of "free magnetic energy" on the NET. As for wind keep your eyes open for Kitegen project from Italy. Protype on the make.
www.kitegen.com/index_en.html
" free magnetic energy "
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Uh-huh ...
well bill gates seems to believe in it.
Check out Gates exposure to ethanol....he was a big investorin PEIX, IIRC
A little bit of radiation never hurt anybody.
I might even say IT'S GOOD FOR YOU!!
A BIT OF RADIATION A DAY
KEEPS THE DOCTOR AWAY!
and your hair away, and your toenails away, and your skin away, and your teeth away, and ....
Peak Oil, Bitchez!
Nuclear power is on the rise, not the decline. Don't be confused...exponential consumption of natural resources like coal, oil and other hydrocarbons means there is only another generation (at best) left of supply (@ 7% growth). Base load requirements, necessitate, a substitute such as atom power; without it the modern world as we know it would come to a grinding halt. So, don your radiation suit and grab your Gieger counters we are just getting started and no tsunami induced, nuclear catastrophe, however tragic and unfortunate is going to change the facts on/under the ground.
this is so stupid. number 1 is 40 yrs old and was supposed to be decommissioned in February. Reactors today are designed completely differently. AND, most are not located in seismically active areas.
It's already been closed down. From the top of this list, Lithuania went directly to the bottom:
http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/ceweekly/2010-01-06/lithuania-after-decommissioning-ignalina
The top 10 aren't exactly "ring of fire" locations if you excuse World War II.
I think you are wise to raise this issue Tyler and I am sure there will be ever more voices worried about the actual safety of nuclear power. As notayesmanseconomics put it today.
It's not really a backlash. It's a blow-out. Of epic proportions. trust Nuclear power?
How many people here know that all that clean nuclear power was at the expense of tons of spent fuel, in think skinned vessels, was beign dumped off the coast of Somalia?
That is the cheapness and cleanliness of it.
Madness. Power-madness. At such terrible cost (like the current Japanese situation), yet the lesson will go unlearned. Because we are all power junkies.
india is all agog with Westinghouse and GE pitching new, efficient, clean nuclear power!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/11/axis-trembles/
Relaaax. At least some of that tonnage was diverted elsewhere in the form depleted uranium. Instead of dumping all of it off the coast of Africa, this portion of spent fuel is being spread all over Central Asia with each incendiary, armor piercing projectile we use. Ironically, whilst contaminating the ME with DU, the MIC is simultaneously sterilizing the warrior class while they're still in their reproductive prime.
The "New" Tokyo Rose/Baghdad Bob misinformation campaign is stunning already. I would take that chart and amp it up by 100x's
the bottom line on nuclear is that China have come out and said they're unched... it doesn't matter a flying f'ck if Switzerland might postpone building 2 reactors or Germany symbolically puts their program on hold... the Chinese and Indians don't have to pander to the same retards in their press and their populace.... they understand full well the only way forward is nuclear.... and they're not taking their feet off the gas. Germany and Switz are a drop in the ocean... both countries have come out and said they're hunting for uranium acquisitions.... they now have a 20% discount staring them in the face.... it's idiotic pieces like this that make beautiful buying ops for people like me...
Yes. And China doesn't get earthquakes. And their safety record and general standards of engineering are exemplary.
Count me in!
Nuklear power is just another form plundering ..., err, of privatizing taxpayer's money. If the whole process from mining to "disposal" wasn't heavily subsidized by governments all over the world, no one in his right mind would run a nuklear power plant.
I read an article by a nuke proponent, mind you, that concluded what with the mining, refining, transportation, etc, uranium reactors represent a negative ROE.
I call bullshit...
Whale bull shit.
There are two options for nuclear power plants. Huge centralized power stations we have now and small power plants such as the type used in Submarines and Aircraft Carriers. When these nuclear power plant choices were being made General Electric wanted to be in the business of building huge centralized power plants simply because it would be easy to eliminate any competition because no one could afford to compete with them. Most any company could compete for the small portable nuclear power stations. Japan should eliminate the construction of any future huge centralized nuclear power station. New nuclear power stations can be built the same size as a standard rail road car and can be carried by rail to and from it's connection to the grid. The reactors in these stations are tiny and so are infinitely safer that the huge mass of a typical power plant. These small systems can be standardized and mass produced in small facilities. As all parts would be standardized (unlike large systems that are hand built individually at high cost) making production, inspection, and operation much less costly. When a power unit needs maintenance or inspection it's disconnected from the grid and it's control system. Another power unit in rolled in and connected in it's place. This could be done with the replacement coming back on-line in just an hour or so.
How are these small plants cooled? Is their supply of coolant dependent on the idiots running our local water departments?
Plenty of rivers and lakes in the US that could supply plenty of cooling water. The biggest problem with the small reactor concept (which is something I strongly favor and believe will eventually happen, even in the US) is that your NIMBY battles multiply geometrically. The NIMBY problem is bad enough when you're building one nuke site in, say, a county sized-area. Now take that problem and multiply it by every single town in said county.
When the rolling black-outs start because the refuse to take one.....
I hear you - which is why I think the "mini-nuke" concept will catch-on eventually. Probably start in places like TX and the mid-west and spread from there. Alas, my home state (The Peoples' Republic of Massachusetts) will be one of the last to get on board.
Heh - someone is a big fan of NIMBYs, evidently.
Air cooled via a cooling tower such as this one.
http://ctcair.com/images/cooling_tower_large_2.jpg
No dependence on local water systems. I do know of one small system in Siberia that uses the adjoining community to dissipate it's heat by providing free heat and hot water to homes in the community during winter.
NuScale Power has a design that's passively cooled. Too bad their primary investor is under some sort of SEC action, which has caused NuScale to curtail operations. Funny how the SEC can practically un-fund a company that challenges big oil and GE, but can't go after the most obvious super-villains in the history of the world. I'm hoping that the wakeup call from Japan is enough for NuScale to get some new funding.
Long-John-Silver
All you say is true, and you can add Thorium reactors to the mix.
The design problem for a big reactor (GE) is that there is no way even theoretically to design a fail safe cooling system which is guaranteed to keep working during a Richter 9 or 10 earthquake.
It's like the minor fault Airbus Industrie has with the carbon fiber vertical fins which have a problem staying attached to the rest of the aircraft; which ends up with the plane & all aboard resting comfortably at the bottom of the South Atlantic.
Very difficult to design for...
Old data. Lithuanian plant was shut down in end of 2009, due to pressure from EU and part as agreement of entering EU as it was old Soviet type reactor.
So now Lithuanias dependence on domestic nuclear is 0.
Pls . correct.
Agreed, but NG is not as easily transported as oil, at least not over oceans. Liquified NG is progressing, but I assume this consumes a lot of energy to compress the gas. We may have hit peak oil, but I don't think we've come anywhere close to hitting peak gas.
Onr reason I was not all that excited anout T Boone Pickens idea of running our transportation fleet on NG is that as soon as we start putting these trucks on the road my heating bills will double or triple, if not sooner knowing the way speculation works.
Agreed, but NG is not as easily transported as oil, at least not over oceans. Liquified NG is progressing, but I assume this consumes a lot of energy to compress the gas. We may have hit peak oil, but I don't think we've come anywhere close to hitting peak gas.
Onr reason I was not all that excited anout T Boone Pickens idea of running our transportation fleet on NG is that as soon as we start putting these trucks on the road my heating bills will double or triple, if not sooner knowing the way speculation works.
Cameco down 17%
BTFD with 1/2 of your funds you are willing to commit...
Sorry about the multiple posts. Seems to be a snag in the tubes this morning.
I've noticed multiple postings happen when the server hosting this service hiccups.
the dif-fusion of nuculer prop-a-ga-nanda is now melting to its rotten core. too fuking bad that many AMERICANS didn't buy the utter bullshit that safe disposal of waste was TBA, any day, by the barney franks, doe-eyed pelosi's, doddering dodds, and presidents with graduate degrees and IQ's below 75.
what they did accomplish, from their collapsing orbits of power, was the complete bondage of blind Justice, tied and spead open upon the witness stand, serially ass-fuked by the pols and their True Constituents: the mafiosa, the bansteratti, and all the tin soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines, proudly displaying their awards as Heroes in the War On Intelligent Thought.
any questions? just ask someone whom you trust and who is rich, and free enuf to "help". oprah comes to mind...
the japanese nuculer and electro-geniuses, who, as the Kingston Trio reminds us were "educated" in our "country, at UCRA..." seem to have left much of the waste right there at the same sites which are now m/l out of "control". so we are now being treated to the Real Time incineration of said waste along with its copius milligrams of PLUTONIUM.
hey tyler! slewie is tapioca and, uh, free, but here's his "Four Horsemen" trade for the week: short the living shit outa Hawaiian REITs: American Assets, and jay shidler's Pacific Office Properties Trust (ASE symbol PCE) seem almost too obvious as holders of "decaying" assets.
Iran is also prone to earthquakes and guess what, they are building one too. I wonder if it's also on a fault line.
It appears that the Earthquake per se is not the cause of the Japanese problems, the Tsunami, on the other hand...
Face it, our civilization is at a energy crossroads and all paths are fraught with peril....
While I am not downplaying the potential hazards of nuclear power, compared to its main competition, coal, it is comparively safe. Google up the direct fatalities from coal mining, not to mention the release of radiation and heavy metals into our environment from mining and burning. Coal fly ash is nasty shit. I won't even bring into the equation the debate over AGW.
As a species we seem to be able to rationalize and ignore the slow lingering effects of coal versus any sudden sharp impact from something like nuclear. It has to do with the bizzare way that humans discount the future.
hey flakmeister! nuculer v. coal as "species thought"?
what is yer monthly gas & elec. bill? mine is $18. in 4 years, i've had my heater on 3 times.
how much do you spend at the gas station each year? about $150-200/yr., here.
i spend "freely" on my bikes, the fuel for which goes directly into my pie hole; the resultant "energy" allows me to travel within a 25-mile radius of home quite freely, often looking like a clown in a rubber suit. but the "discomfort" is no worse than an average morning of Basic Training, and my County Clinic GP doctor is usually a bit bored when i show up for my annual "how fuking styoopid is allopathic medicine" comedic routine.
so, dude, how do you roll? huh?
Good for you... you are in a small minority and you clearly don't live in harsh climate. I had my driving down to 1500 miles a year till recently.
what is yer monthly gas & elec. bill? mine is $18.
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Proof living like a rat has its advantages ...
.
i hope it takes one to know one!
i do have some bizzare ritualz, 7.7.7.7., and F-meister, too:
when i'm freezing my ugly little tail off in the winter, i take a super-hot bath in my "normal" tub. sweat city. then, i get out and put on two robes, one hooded, and nice warm socks and sweat pants, for the true apres sweat lodge slow cool-down. my tootsies get rolled in a bath mat with a small heating pad, set on "lo". then, i like to call my gf, msZ, who lives so far away that i have only met her once, and tell her that i feel like a balzac character, with my feet resting upon 110 volt virtual firedogs.
and i leave the hot water in the tub, of course. takes a bit of the chill off my 700 sq. ft. 1BR castle of rastfarian solitude.
then, i'll have some nice sri lanka black tea and maybe a 12 oz. "tube" of frozen pineapple juice which is just like sorbet, only cheaper and maybe even better for me, too. better go see if they still have it @ 4-for-$5, today. hawaiian pineapples may not be too freaking healthy in another week or two, and slewie may be glowing in the dark, too!
how many rem's could a re-man remedy if a re-man could remedy rems?
Dude, just turn the fucking heater on and get in your car and TURN THE FUCKING heater on and save all the warm tootsie bullshit for your boyfriend.
kitegen caroussel prototype. "High altitude wind power" article by Ugo Bardi in Oil drum of july 13, 2009. Sorry, I can't seem to stick the thread in here.
" High altitude wind power "
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All fun and games until your first thunderstorm/mesocyclone complex moves through ...
.
Not if the individual size of units are small.... 50-100 MW range and well distributed around the country. Renewable wind/solar/wave gen. cumulative power has to be counter balanced by other (nuclear/gas/coal/hydraulic) for it to be efficient and flexible. But it could be 25-50% over time of the mix until we make it more sustainable/constant/cost effective. Not bad for a thirty year planning horizon!
Germany has just imposed a 3 month suspension on the decision to extend the life of its old Nuclear Power Plants.
German Power prices surging higher now towards the close. Not going to help the "recovery" much now that European Power policy is in tatters.
Total fear mongering by anti nuke media. Yes there are and will be some problems but nothing like Chernobyl. I find it interesting that the 160 people exposed to radiation are more important than the thousands exposed to starvation, hypothermia and wound infection. How you suffer should not be differentiated by an agenda. Nuclear power is here to stay and China and India could give a crap about our media trying to destroy the nuclear industry.
This is sobering:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_mining#Safety
Article by Greg Palast:
"It will likely also see countries that have a substantial exposure to nuclear power plants be pressured to migrate to other sources of energy."
Don't be silly. Nobody has new sources of energy to pull out of their asses.
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