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Presenting Laszlo Birinyi's "Teflon 20" Must Short Momo Names

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Laszlo Birinyi, best known for his straight line extrapolation method applied to everything, except of course crude which would result in WTI hitting 10 trillion by the time the Hungarian says the S&P would approach 2,854 in three years, has released his list of Teflon Twenty companies that supposedly are immune to any news. Arguably these are the stocks that comply best with the ruler interpolation method of price prediction. These also happen to be the biggest momo names in the world. Once the market crack is confirmed, these are the names that will result in early retirement for those who STFD. On the other hand, it also means we will have many more years of Birinyi, and his attempts at 20+ kHz communication, on Comcast, coming up with totally insane predictions.

h/t Sal Arnuk

 

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Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:34 | 993709 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

I will still take DE and XOM

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:54 | 993797 bIlluminati
bIlluminati's picture

I misread this the first time. I thought you meant Birinyi said to short these stocks. So now I can put his recommendations in the same folder i use for Cramer? (It's circular.)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:42 | 994580 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

bIlluminati,

If you go to Stockcharts.com they will let you set up a free chart with things like the RSI (Relative Strength), Bollinger bands, On balance volume and Accumulation/Distribution lines. 

Almost all of Birinyi issues are in the "overbought" category with signs of weakening of the trend.  This is for a nimble trader but, quite frankly, I would not touch any of these on the long side right now.  In fact, the only two I would continue to hold, (with one hand on the switch) is QCOM and CMG. 

I think that with all the disruption about, this could very well be a trader's short list. 

A person in options doesn't need a crash, just a correction.

However, price and load on the position should be considered when using options.  This is not a recommendation and I am not a professional.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:59 | 993810 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

What was Khadafi putting in his private plane? AAPL and AMZN certificates?

Ohhhhh... It was gold. That's what I'm going with. Keep your paper.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:58 | 993812 myztix
myztix's picture

what about BSFT?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:37 | 993728 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Please tell me this is a joke or something.  Did you get this off The Onion? 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:38 | 993729 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

NFLX is a zero

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:37 | 993732 fuggetaboutit
fuggetaboutit's picture

Someone pull the Teflon 20 list from 2H 07 lets see how those fared, im sure they performed impeccably

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:28 | 993911 Dr_Dazed
Dr_Dazed's picture

Absolutely - how can this crap pass for analysis?  It's almost impossible to believe that this jackass can hold a job let alone get paid for this shit.  Oh wait - Wall Street the land that Common-Sense forgot.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:43 | 993733 99er
Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:40 | 993742 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

take Khaddafi plane

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:41 | 993749 bogey4
bogey4's picture

Chipotle?  Seriously?  WTF is wrong with people who eat at Chipotle?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:46 | 993765 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Well, since their burritos are 93.7% rice, and rice has skyrocketed, it's a better value now than last year.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:45 | 993988 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

Chipotle is a great company in my opinion, unlike NFLX they have actual CASH FLOW.  They have been a great stock to hold.  Also, i believe they are a company like McDonalds that does well with the economy in the crapper.  Since i don't think the real economy (as opposed to NFLX fantasy land) is improving, i think stocks that cater to the impoverished lower class will do well ($6 burritos not out of the reach of the middle class.... yet....).

 

Also, i definitely wouldn't eat their often, but the one by my house gives you tons of meat, and not much rice (unless you request more) unlike the poster below suggested.  Could depend on the individual location of course.

 

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:59 | 994044 Occams Aftershave
Occams Aftershave's picture

taco bell + margaritas = CMG

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:07 | 994087 ToddGak
ToddGak's picture

I went there once, had the worst burrito I'd ever eaten, and never went back.  I guess that doesn't really have anything to do with the stock price though, apparently some people like it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:25 | 994170 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

well I think it is a step above taco bell in terms of quality, which might not be saying much LOL

 

Also, the one by my office is literally filled with people at all hours of the day.  Either they like the food or are under some sort of mind control.  Literally i see a line 30 people long out the door on a regular basis as i drive by (lunch and dinner hours).

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 18:03 | 994891 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

They're a "limo lib" darling because of the sustainable ag stuff they pretend to care about.  They're going to get absolutely fucking destroyed at some point down the line.

Reason:  Qdoba is essentially the same business, except their food is way the fuck better, and it's cheaper from a cost o' production standpoint.   

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:35 | 995279 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Prefer an authentic 'dirty' burrito from the local hole-in-the-wall myself.

Didn't mind Chipotle once in awhile but the last time I was there, it wasn't that hot temp-wise and I woke up soaking wet with THE ABSOLUTE worst e-coli trottskies ever...  nosiree. not for me - and the stock will make you feel the same one day soon.

btw - That is the worst list of equities anyone could put together. Please make a list using algorithm 'hind-sight v4' and sort by stratospheric PEs please HAL.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:42 | 993751 IEVI
IEVI's picture

PCLN +$33 today..because everybody will be taking vacations with $5/gal gas and the world on fire.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:27 | 994502 just_looking
just_looking's picture

sentiment at a 3 yr high, right? I deserve a vacation after all I have been through.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:44 | 993754 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Birinyi must be planning his final exit, stage left.

After all, that's the beauty of the Wall Street scam, right? He's got the money.

You get to gamble other peoples' monies, and you get paid your 2/20 or 4/40, whether the market soars or tanks.

It's in the bank.

It's the best scam and ponzi ever devised. And it's not only legal, the people running the show own your politicians.

A perfect crime.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:43 | 993756 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

I hope Byrini knows how to trade both long and short. His Teflon Twenty will fall apart just like the Nifty Fifty.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:48 | 993771 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture
'I won't pay' movement spreads across Greece In light of austerity measures, citizens ignore tolls, transit ticket costs, even bills for healthcare

They blockade highway toll booths to give drivers free passage. They cover subway ticket machines with plastic bags so commuters can't pay. Even doctors are joining in, preventing patients from paying fees at state hospitals.

Some call it civil disobedience. Others a freeloading spirit. Either way, Greece's "I Won't Pay" movement has sparked heated debate in a nation reeling from a debt crisis that's forced the government to take drastic austerity measures — including higher taxes, wage and pension cuts, and price spikes in public services.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41723432/ns/business-world_business/

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:19 | 993872 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Unfortunate as it is, many Greeks have been lulled into the socialist entitlement paradigm. On the other hand, many are awake to their true enemy, the banking elite and their corrupt government puppets, and Greeks have been known to say NO en masse before to their would-be oppressors. Let's hope their energies are focused in the right direction.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:40 | 993958 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

they'd best channel some King Leonidas & The 300 fast!!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:44 | 994257 ronin12
ronin12's picture

+300

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:48 | 993774 London Dude Trader
London Dude Trader's picture

Kermit's Top 20

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:50 | 993779 Ted K
Ted K's picture

This Birinyi shit is too funny.  PLease keep following this.  Not important to investors, but humorous as hell storyline.  What is up with this dude, did he fall and hit his head sideways on a metal urn??? Or has early stage Alzheimer's set in??  Calling the ghost of 1986 Reagan.... Calling the ghost of 1986 Reagan...... are you there???

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:58 | 993809 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

I truly think Birinyi gets the ideas that Barton Biggs leaves on the nightstand when he goes to pee at 3 a.m.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:55 | 994027 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Barton is on Flomax now, so he can hold it through the night. Dan Dorfman, however, is another story.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:51 | 993781 Bruno the Bear
Bruno the Bear's picture

So it's STFD now?  LOL

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:50 | 993782 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They always seem invincible: TheGobe.com, Interwoven, Inktomi, Razorfish, DrKoop.com

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:04 | 993830 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

LOL, remember that scam?

Attach ".com" to your IPO and, boom, tack on a few billion in market capitalization. And when that bubble burst, the trend became removing dot-com from the name.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:52 | 993784 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
The Winners of the New World

By Jim Cramer 02/29/00 - 09:42 AM EST

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX), Ariba (ARBA_), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), InfoSpace.com (INSP_), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN_) and Veritas Software (VRTS_).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:59 | 993814 IEVI
IEVI's picture

"Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come."

WTF..did he really say that!

 


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:08 | 993838 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes.

The link to his infamous speech/pep rally is in blue above.

He gave that speech right before one of the biggest meltdowns in equity market history.

The NASDAQ was particularly hard hit, losing nearly 80% of its value by 2003.

 

...on Friday, March 10, 2000, when the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite index, peaked at 5,048.62 (intra-day peak 5,132.52), more than double its value just a year before...

 

The Winners of the New World

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:56 | 994034 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

The laughable thing of it was, for several years after the tech implosion ( including virtually all of these names ), this piece had been removed from TheStreet.com's archives. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:01 | 993821 bIlluminati
bIlluminati's picture

Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

 

Just wow. And many tech stocks can be had for under 10 trailing P/E, and some oil companies also under 10 trailing P/E. But to Cramer, earning don't matter, as long as he is in pump (pre-dump) phase.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 13:59 | 993813 myztix
myztix's picture

what about BSFT?.. the all time high flyer? Lol

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:00 | 993819 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

This list look like a list of the stocks Cramer pitches day in and day out to be long.

 

Interesting...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:08 | 993837 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Anyone know what George Gilder is touting these days?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:12 | 993849 partimer1
partimer1's picture

These are the same stocks that get beaten shitlessly in the bear market.  you can say that in the up market these are the leaders, and they are the leaders too in the bear market. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:12 | 994115 ToddGak
ToddGak's picture

Well yeah...the ones that go up the steepest come down the steepest...people want to lock in those big gains so they're the first to get sold.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:15 | 993858 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Wow, that is the stocks that don't pay a dividend additionally most of them has stratospheric PE ratios.  Yeah, buying all twenty is a guaranteed +80% loss.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:21 | 993882 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Fuckerada

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:50 | 994009 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Apple missed the best symbol by just a little, they should be called Tulip, as in Tulip Mania? I do like Amazon because they are almost like a retailing utility, they make money on the passthrough charges. Ebay tried the same thing, but they are just an internet swap meet. If Cat is hitched the USD, what about Deere?

I do think any business that functions as a utility is probably okay, as they have pricing power, and hopefully something everyone needs like food or energy. Ralph Laurens? JC said it, the rich will always be with you.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:55 | 994025 natty light
natty light's picture

JDS LOL

poster boy of the Internet craxh

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:29 | 994054 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Hopefully, Comcast will provide in-stream Dolby NR when broadcasting Laszlo's appearances, else the majority of mass-market TVs and their in-cabinet speakers will freely buzz and deform when they reproduce sound at Laszlo's resonant frequency.

Not to mention the tune that 20 kHz voice does to a dog's hearing. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 15:21 | 994153 wawawiwaa
wawawiwaa's picture

That thing looks like my portfolio and I am having pretty good performance!! Should I be scared... Hahahahahhaah

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 16:22 | 994483 ewmayer
ewmayer's picture

Uh, Weyerhaeuser's 1-yr datum seems to be missing a minus sign in the table, because WY hit their 52-week high last spring before tanking big-time in July and slowly climbing back from that. (P/E = 6 currently)

Not sure what to make of some of those P/Es, either: COF = 8, which actually seems decently low for a bank holding co/credit-card issuer (compare to AXP at 13 and Visa at 17)...then we have XOM at 14, which looks modest but is actually pretty rich for an oil company (compare to Chevron at 11 and ConocoPhillips at 10). But yeah, over 100 is probably a wee bit rich irrespective of industry.

A "Degree of Cheat in reported earnings" column would be nice, though. :)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 17:12 | 994708 rayban
rayban's picture

A DJ-style Teflon portfolio, i.e. 100 shares/per name allocation, at today close would cost $252,335. I will track it and report about the performance of this bunch of safe, cheap, undervalued and little volatile high dividend/paying stocks.

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