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Presenting The Natgas "Fractal" Algo
Just when we thought we had seen it all, along comes another 19 year old math Ph.D. with the latest demonic-cum-fractal algo to show us just what cavemen we truly are...
h/t Taro
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Do a Fourier transform and run it through a low-pass filter....
almost forgot... acheter le creux putain!
How else can pH-D students contribute to society? They are just taking their just deserts. ~ Keynes
Nice bifurcation tree!
Depends if you're a Euclidean
ALCP=BTFD...oui?
Indeed. (oui, en effet)
Fourier Transform: That was funny. Looked like a free induction decay the second I looked at it.
bravo! trilingual...english, french, and science!
Done. With padding into positive time, it looks just like the downward-facing middle finger which, on the playground, used to signify the phrase 'Fuck Yo Mamma'
+2000+4j.
A complex analysis deserves a complex number of kudos.
I also offer you the conjugate. That way, you may receive REAL kudos.
+2000-4j
Also. Remember in the mathematical domain of financial crime, non-causal systems ARE physically realizable.
'N they always map onto the taxpayer, especially those with lots and lots of Hamiltonians.
CW
Nice.... \hattip
Hi Flak,
Gotta love that 4d humor!
I wonder what the FFT, wavelet transform or POD analysis would tell you about the structure in spectral space though - would the characteristic frequencies of these trading algos depend on internet speed or do they actually have intentional "wait" periods between trades? I haven't got a clue how they work.
In essence, it's generating a mathematical analog of 'flack' to confoozle any dipshit algos expecting a linear or similarly simple pattern...it could be noise shaped with particular statistical properties (a declining average say)...or perhaps some twinky has a bug in his VB code and is adding the occasional NaN value in his pricing subroutine.
Internet speed is not an issue when your equipment is co-located immediately next to the stock exchanges' computer room / data farm. Nothing stands between you and immediate trade execution except a fiber optic cable. Once an HFT computer generates the trade, it's executed at the speed of light give or take a couple of picoseconds.
He/she started to suck dick early. It is amazing what social conditioning can create.
That's the trace of the output from an unlimited feedback in a Class D amplifier. It reached saturation and was shut down by the AGC.
Badly rigged casino?
Just another reason to pick up your ball and go home. Or, at the very least, head to another court. One with some integrity. One with some referees who aren't afraid to call bullshit.
Proplem is: what do you do with 'your ball'? Not playing with it gets you killed by inflation. Putting it in PM gets you killed by taxation if and when your PM go up in price and you need to exchange them for fiat to buy an ice cream cone or something.
Cash PM Dealers are everywhere bro'!
Yes. Buy all your physical cash and don't give the vendor your name. If you have to use a cheque, you can get a money order cash from the post office. Same protocol as if you're buying drugs or gifts for your mistress.
Who are you, Anthony Weiner :)
A bit more complicated in Canada...
10000$ legal limit for crossing the US -Can border without 'financial instrument notice of declaration'
Any solutions for Canada?
Get rid of the Conservatives.
If you live Canada then show some patriotism!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Gold_Maple_Leaf
The 1 ounce Canadian Maple Leaf has a face value as legal tender (financial instrument) of $50.
Thus, if you are subjected to a $CAD 10,000 limit, then this means you can _only_ bring across the border 200 coins...
Given that they tend to trade at a priemium above spot, you can imagine that it would equate to safely over $USD 310,000 in bullion value.
In Singapore, the limit is $S 30,000, so that is like 480 coins (close to 3/4th a million US, LOL!).
One instance where PM bullion tied to fiat is your friend!
Very interesting and probably completely legal.
I would have to bring a lot of cash into the US though which must be declared. These things aren't concerns for the very rich. Just the mildly rich and miggle class...
Maybe legal. Not sure. I've looked this up on line several times, and have never seen a firm opinion. Only speculation. Thing is, with asset forfeiture laws (since anyone carrying cash MUST be a drug dealer), do you want to risk it. You may think it is $10,000, but they may say it is $300,000 and take it.
But if anyone has seen a legal opinion on it, I would be very interested
I am Canadian. When I am there, I just buy the bullion there in person from a dealer for cash. Now if the 10k is a bottleneck for you (you're buying more than 10k per day - so you're accumulating a couple million in gold a year) I think you can hire people to do your bidding, then hire other people to kill the people who did your bidding, then kill the killers yourself. You'll need to buy a hog farm, of course, to dispose of everything - be sure to incinerate the manure.
can you forward this pitch to the Coen brothers in the hopes they can snag Jeff Bridges, et al - I can "see" it now, pure gold. . .
not really help for getting PMs across the boarder (read the canadian maple tip below for that) but you could always buy bitcoins and take a flashdrive across the boarder with as much currency as you wish.
Fractals are soooo 60's
The Great Algo War of 2011 is almost upon us; prepare accordingly...
http://io9.com/5800577/the-stock-market-depends-on-how-algorithms-are-interacting-with-each-other
Same "Flash Crash" appeared on Finviz and INO.com
Under Blogs or News?
...oh I got yer fractal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIp-AuwGr6s&feature=related
There have been five 50 point "flash crashes" on the DJIA futures on Finviz tonight:
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=YM&p=m5&s=m
Little bit of ES funny business too?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=m5
That chart looks f'ed up bro, the Sept ES is @ 1276.00 and there's the problem: ROLLOVER. June is no longer "top step" tomorrow so all continuous charts are switching to the Sept contract tonight, thus the odd look to it. Nothing special is happening here.
ICE put out a notice that many quotes were down but orders were still processing. A lot of the futures I watch went dark (in thinkorswim) for about 5 minutes around these times.
Not a problem, they just hung up the charts before the ink was dry.
More Funny Business tomorrow...
Trying to coil the spring again, obviously, for another ridiculous algo driven BS rally....I'd suggest. However, and since the economic writing on the wall is quite clear, as it has been written with red spray paint , it won't matter. Until further notice, algo lifts will be met with the block selling of amazingly dumb and lazy fund managers until the magic words "money printing" are once again uttered.
The market is a flaming sell, computerized futures BS trades notwithstanding.
Red spray paint? Reminds me of the clip of the guy who paints the V from V for Vendetta on the wall then shoots up his local council meeting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQjQOlJvMzE
Natgas is a vicious market to trade. On top of it all are the NG oil pair which is about to destroy the long oil side before the next hurricane
Some frackin' braniac should write an algo to detect feral algos to BTFD.
We should just consider ourselves lucky that the algo's don't completely fuck up everything, for everybody on Earth, each and every day. 8)
Considering it's like giving a newborn a straight-razor to play with or playing volleyball on a court with broken glass scattered about - I'd say we're doing damn well.
I always wondered what it would look like if ya put a flanger on that...far out.
hehe, "...I think you got 'suck' all the way cranked to ten Ferrel...I recommend you try another sport; like knitting!"
(I no junk u)
In a way, this resembles a glow stick getting shaken to life, slipping out of grasp, bouncing off a trampoline then getting caught. Rave inspired algo!
Isn't this how SkyNet comes to life?
And/Or resistance is futile?
I still think certain parts of the market should not be subject to this. I understand this particular market is notoriously volitile, but really?
Ddad is the best on this, but from my perch, there is no credibility in the "markets".
Nice catch Tyler. One things for sure, thoses computers know how to trade NG well!
Do a bird next. Can you make it trade a graph that looks like a bird? How about a swan, you know, a nice black one.
Do a bird next. Can you make it trade a graph that looks like a bird? How about a swan, you know, a nice black one.
Do a bird next. Can you make it trade a graph that looks like a bird? How about a swan, you know, a nice black one.
Do a bird next. Can you make it trade a graph that looks like a bird? How about a swan, you know, a nice black one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l4JpI0nwf8
Hmm, the idea actually is amazingly elegant in its simplicity. Just shake it up, until the other players lose their cool... which will either trigger a massive buying rally, or selloff..... depending on which of both happens, BTFD or STFT. Not sure how to even protect against that.... in this particular case, one could simply do nothing at all.... yet, if the program is just adjusted a little bit, that may put you on the losing side.
Bottom line: Someone shouldn't even be able to do this at such a speed. HFT in general is the problem as usual.
Yeah. Shake it up enough and other players / bots will exit the game. Easy enough to predict in advance and take a profit from a net short position. Of course the SEC won't do anything about such manipulation because for its billion dollar budget it operates with a trade-resolution at day level, not millisecond level.
Fuck the SEC. Give Nanex a SWAT team and this will be all be over faster than a trade bot can blink.
i'm still trying to figure out what things like this mean in gold/silver, does this happen every day and i just miss it? http://i.imgur.com/QQzZc.jpg
That's thin after hours trading, after New York and Chicago go home but before Japan, et al come online. That's normal to have a tight range that bounces back and forth.
thanks.
I too have seen some good ones, but that is the cherry on top...
New name?
New Name: Self-Excited Oscillator, or SEO.
Tiene algo
Buenaza!
Reminds me of that Memorex commercial where Ella Fitzgerald hit just the right frequency to shatter the wine glass.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2uFD_cIkrI
Video of matching frequency to resonant frequency of the glass using a horn drive and enough amplitude to break the glass:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8C0KLkzwN4
heh, good analogy.
Points to ZeroHedge, and to you, sir. I love it. I absolutely fucking love it.
OK, start with the computer above, add a little of this:
http://www.the700level.com/2010/01/northwestern-university-journalism-sc...
and also have it do this:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008819876_teleprompt06.html
What do you get?
vertigo?
Talking head??
Kudos to the inventor...
Elegant demonstration of deliberate creation of insider-status, at will and with infinite variability.
Proof that criminalizing "insider" trading is futile since its definition allows no practical boundaries.
A better approach is to somehow limit the benefits to discourage the act...via taxes or, cum hopium, an effective justice system
I have no idea what I'm looking at.
I think Tyler just drew up some squiggly lines to fuck with our heads.
The chart shows a non-human price oscillation. It is a typical behavior seen in computer programs or algorithms that are not adequately programmed or tested.
Algorithms are just math formulae (or computer steps) that evaluated at fixed intervals of time (sampling time) and usually have some feedback from itself in order of several past iterations.
An example of a bad algorithm is for example O(n)=I(n)-O(n-1)
n=1, I=10 ... O=10
n=2, I=10 ... O=0
n=3, I=10 ... O=10
n=4, I=10 ... O=0
and if you continue, and chart O (output), you see it resonates badly... even though I (input) is constant.
... and no one goes to prison.
so, you see insane volatility like that fix a put on the spread. You would have made cash on that...
adapt or die
Next is a major index again May 6 2010 redux
just watched japan margin traders get wiped on a nutso buying pre AUD meltdown
guitar string plucked, then snapped.
... chicken picking ... :-P
Hell, that's nothing ... just wait 'til these quant critters get ahold of Imaginary Numbers ...
An imaginary number is a number with square that is negative. When any real number is squared, the result is never negative. Imaginary numbers have the form bi where b is a non-zero real number and i is the imaginary unit, defined such that i 2 = −1.
When that algo is unleashed on the market, the universe will instantaneously contract to zero volume and infinite mass.
But he isn't wearing anything at all!
Typo... I think he meant demonic-cum-facial.
I like you, but quit stealing from the REAL777.
Get Blue and smart
Come on people, has no one seen the movie "Limitless"?
It doesn't take the right algo, just the right drug!
BTW: If you haven't seen the movie the plot is thinner than Leann Rimes. Or is it? A guy doubles his investment every day for two weeks and then begs for a job working for an M&A firm! Those Wall Street bonuses are awesome!
Whew, that was close. Almost got stopped out of that one.
What exactly are we looking at?
The carney at the state fair showing you how easy it is to win at wack-a-mole.
"Only five bucks, anyone can win, give me $10 and you and your girl can both win."
Under-damped with an accidentally-found resonance killed by a limiter - so '70's.
Not underdamped. Negative damping. An underdamped system is still stable, and in underdamping, the amplitude of the oscillation decreases with time, whereas this one increases (until something else gets triggered).
Actually, I think the best term is "self-excited oscillation." I propose we call this algo the SEO. But you are right that something killed it.
To me it looks like the SEO triggered a sell algo (the steep decline is discontinuous with the earlier osicllatory part), and then something killed both.
Other ways to look at it: positive feedback at high frequency. Negative phase margin. Unstable impulse response. Etc.
Perhaps it was intentionally self-excited.
Take a look at the volume.
If the program was one of the buyers in the millisoeconds after the intentional oscillation and steep decline, say with an intentionally random or non-oscillation frequency - with a fairly robust assumption that something like Nat Gas would be bought by others with a steep enough of a decline - I would say the algo could have been intentionally self-excited.
It would make a good cover at the least.
ALGO's= dysfunctial (HUMAN MINDS)
duplicate deleted.
I'm sure the CFTC is on it...
The same thing is happening tonight with Dow and S&P futures.
Why is it always a move down, rather than up?
Wouldn't this be easy to arbitrage?
Europe tends to go green first (not always) in volatility trades then sells when US opens. Algos trading kicks in now (Europe open). The market is turning bearish now, so rapid Algo movements will occur. juicy sells and rebounds. If you can catch them.
...but if we are talking about chaos theory and algo trading, sure, the F*up will be internal and spread. The Zero Hedge chart above is an excellent source material. All traders (human) should study it.
Fractals PhDches! Had to be said
It's just algos mugging algos, locked in their own little fightclub and trying to signal the outside world for help.
if anyone gives a damn huge risk trades (FX) call options expire next few days
The "wack and float" is a direct transfer from tax payers dollars to HFT offshore.
Government support mandate to keep S&P from falling, HFT wacks it on the head with bear rush and finishes with long buy at trough of sell spree... then government's slow'n'stupid algo goes into buy mode to raise in thin market and HFT sells back at pre-wack price. Same deal as FX traders in NZ/Oz counter trading market in ealry morning, then taking profit when Tokyo wakes up. Clockwork.
Your US tax dollars at work for you. /golfclap.
It'd be classic if those were Chinese HFT algos, getting all their profit back from devalued Treasuries... oh the irony!!
Nice!
Used to be that scientists were required to conduct dangerous experiments in a laboratory before releasing their new technologies into mainstream application. Not any more. Today, these algo traders are using the entire market as their lab and small investors are the equivalent of lab rats. If these HFT companies were pharmaceutical developers they would just throw every new test drug into the water supply to see what happens.
Isn't this where Milton Friedman or the 3 times married Catholic New Gingrich is supposed to show up with a pointer and tell us how the right side of this graph proves EMH???
Maybe it's Skynet's first inklings of becoming self-aware?
I would call this RGPO, Range Gate Pull-Off.