Presenting The (Only) Four Outcomes To The Global Public Debt Crisis

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Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:25 | 1403164 Ahmeexnal
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Outcome number 5: WAR.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:32 | 1403176 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

That is an extension of the debt trap (most commonly) as the war spending must be financed with debt or printing (hyperinflation).

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:40 | 1403191 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Three is impossible at this point.  One, two, and four are the same thing, default.  The debt trap is just "kicking the can down the road" for as long as possible.  It's only a question of how to default.  Through history, hyperinflation, is, by far, the most frequent route.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:07 | 1403248 Shocker
Shocker's picture

What do you think is going to happen when we have hyperinflation, deflation, war.... The economy has slowly but steady been dismantled for the last 5 years. Stimulus has done nothing but create more mess and really there is no way out, but what is suggested above.

Everything is not ok, even though you hear it is on TV, its not

 

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

 

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 20:13 | 1403974 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Who would the US go war with?  Why China of course.  This time though it will be China who is looking for a little pay back.  China is building up its military so it can collect on its past due bills.  When will war take place?  It won't happen until after it has more aircraft carriers built and has its hand down the back of everyone's pants ready to give a great big wedgy.  China has been buying up ports to build on its "Pearls on a string" strategy.  We can thank Bill Clinton for giving the Chinese the base at Long Beach, California (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1590822/posts).

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 09:57 | 1405175 augie
augie's picture

you may not be to far off in predicting our next "aggressor." Just read a WSJ article about the Marines relocating the majority of their forces to Japan because of the global balance of power shifting. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230423120457640564000379607...

"marines aim to avoid postwar identity crisis"

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 16:59 | 1403585 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

The debt trap is not a solution--it merely delays one of the other "solutions". The only histtorically likely solutions are #2 and #4. I am just curious to see how much lipstick has to goo on the pig.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:14 | 1403680 WonderDawg
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None of the options listed are "solutions". They're outcomes. The question is, will current policies steer us in the direction of one of these outcomes, or will the bond market determine the direction and force it upon us.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:46 | 1403740 mophead
mophead's picture

You're all wrong. For starters, war is a solution. The idea behind war is not to distract, but to enslave another country, as was done in Nazi Germany and Japan, for instance. It's actually easy to find a threat, you simply create it.

How to sustain an Empire (The Roman Way):

Step 1: Buy a tyrant and put him in power in a productive economy/country (ala Hilter/Germany);

Step 2: Fund the tyrant, have him wage war on other nations;

Step 3: At the Empire, tell the people the tyrant will soon strike us next;

Step 4: The people will now demand protection and revenge, then with approval you issue more debt to fund the war;

Step 5: Immediately the economy booms and unemployment goes down;

Step 6: After several to many years of battle, order the paid tyrant to lose the war;

Step 7: Write an invoice to the losing country (or rather, the people of the country), billing them for virtually everything, including the destruction and rebuilding of even their own infrastructure;

Step 8: Sit on your ass for many decades collecting payments in the form of treasury purchases and other things; often this is done indirectly to prevent you and me from connecting the dots;

That's how it's been done for thousands of years.

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 19:06 | 1403801 Shredd the FED
Shredd the FED's picture

Video from John Birch Society.  It is important to join and follow them as well...

 


http://www.jbs.org/the-john-birch-society/where-s-ron-paul

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:38 | 1403703 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"the sovereign debt problem will be addressed successfully only if political willingness and leadership are up to the task."

Yeah, right!

Kick the can down the road is all they can do.

Try for that next bonus or election, whatever the case may be.. until one of the many black swans circling finds a perch.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 22:39 | 1404517 morkov
morkov's picture

3) austerity x growth - means accepting lower living standards...that will take a LOT of time...so this is not the likely short-term outcome

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:48 | 1403199 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

War today is not as easy as it was 50 years ago, you don't have a boogey man in Europe to fight(no Hitler no Stalin) and an external war outside Europe makes no sense. Making war to get you debts money back won't work you just loose more and there are no virgins nor gold to plunder

More likely a civil war inside Europe, or a 'French Revolution' style uprising followed by a 'Robespierre Government'

Let's say we see a revolution in Greece or Spain etc. since people don't have a clue to what the problems are and even less about the solutions they will fuck them selves over royally and will have to learn the hard way, I guess serves them right since they didn't want to learn when they still had time

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:58 | 1403220 AwlDone
AwlDone's picture

No gold to plunder? Libya anyone?

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:41 | 1403330 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

The problem as I see it is...there is a boogeyman...It's called the united states..Now what was difference between what hitler was doing and what obama is doing in the middle east now?

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:06 | 1403378 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

No Ovens...

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:05 | 1403381 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

FEMA camps.

They won't say what they got there.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:41 | 1403331 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

The problem as I see it is...there is a boogeyman...It's called the united states..Now what was difference between what hitler was doing and what obama is doing in the middle east now?

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 17:02 | 1403592 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I was just thinking, "If you don't know who the boogey-man is, you're the boogey-man."

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:23 | 1403409 ginunn
ginunn's picture

 

 

Actually, war today is a trivial exercise. My country, Canada, has recently decided to bomb another country - Libya. The action has not been debated in parliament. We don't have a president who can order such an action. We haven't declared war although I think we have some political euphemism to describe what we are doing. Despite the euphemisms, bombing another country is an act of war. And for us it seems to have been undertaken as some kind of trivial bureaucratic exercise.

In the last month, our military has asked for authorization to buy 2300 smart bombs at $100,000 a pop (or should I say bang), to replace ones already used and for further bombing raids, and there again has been no discussion. They might have been ordering sugar for their mess halls.

We will have war when we need it as has always been the case. The difference is we simply don't have to create a Pearl Harbour or Gulf of Tonkin incident to justify one.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 19:45 | 1403892 koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

Get your facts right. JDAM costs around USD20,000 (for the GPS unit) and Paveway (GBU-12) Laser guided munition costs a bit less, maybe USD 18,000. Certainly not USD100k

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 21:32 | 1404091 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Libya is just the coming attractions before the main event starts showing.

Need a staging area that can't be reached accurately by someone else's current missile technology.

http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/07/media_mapping_of_iran_missile_range/

Notice how the article stipulates that, "The map implies the U.S. view that Iran’s capabilities are a European problem, and perhaps should be a Russian one too.", and no wonder the Libyan operation is being spearheaded by NATO.

I guess someone in Libya decided not to play along with the Bilderbergers, and is paying the price, either that, Libya is just a staging event to see how well the NATO powers work together in a sea/air campaign before the so called dreaded boots hit the ground. And good ole Muammar Gaddafi is probably in on it because they need him to keep fighting so that the NATO allies can refine and enhance their warfighting doctrines. Either way without NATO the rebels would have been toast long ago.

The Americans have carried the vast majority of the load in Iraq and Afganistan, while the NATO allies, except the British, have all mostly sat on the sidelines. My guess is Libya will get boots on the ground within six months and Libya will be turned into a base of operations just like Kuwait.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/here-come-the-boots-on-the-ground-eu-approves-possible-military-operation-for-libya.html

http://www.prisonplanet.com/u-s-general-ground-troops-to-invade-libya.html

http://www.prisonplanet.com/nato-preparing-ground-war-in-libya.html

At the same time, some dumb ass down in Venezuela was trying to place medium range missiles down in his country, but somehow ended up in a Cuban hospital in critical care. Or, at least, that's what the propaganda wants you to believe.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2008258/How-make-look-healthy-Stand-Fidel-Castro-works-Hugo-Chavez.html

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/05/17/iran-building-secret-missile-installation-venezuela/

This pissed off someone at the Pentagon, or the CIA, or the NSA, or one of those places. So, I guess, a few people, need to be taught a lesson.

And, its quite possible this was the reason the Repubs didn't defund the war, just gave poor ole Obummer a slap on the wrist.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/u-s-house-keeps-libya-funding-fails-to-authorize-mission.html

If they were serious about Obummers misuse of the President's constitutional powers, this would be enough to bring articles of impeachment against him.

Another dot that should be connected is the fact that both Iraq and Afghanistan will have troop drawdowns within the next 18 months.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/the-open-door-in-afghanistan.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8598832/US-military-leaders-fear-Afghanistan-withdrawal-will-increase-soldier-deaths.html

Those troops could be used for coming invasion plans:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/hillary-clinton-channels-the-neocons.html

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:40 | 1403721 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

No boogey man? Who needs a boogey man when you have the Twelfth Iman?

We'd all be better off if The Bernank started to print Virgins instead of Greenbacks. The rabid psychotic cult known as Virgin Quest (aka Islam) controls a HUGE checkbook in the UK now.

Dearborn, MI? Who would want to be in Detroit?  Virgin Quest is alive and well there.  A sure sign that Virgin Quest will attack the US is when they start to pave a golden runway for their Beloved 12th Iman in Detroit.

The "war" is already underway. WTF do you think Net Neutrality is all about. And who is the number one driver of Net Neutrality. Net Neutrality & Virgin Quest are very much part of the New Axis Of Evil.  Police state coming to a theater near YOU.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 19:02 | 1403797 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Here is my question for anyone who can please answer.

In 2005, the U.S. labor force was 152 million people with a total U.S. population of about 300 million. Today (2011) the labor force is 139 million with a total population of 311 million people. According to official information (u-3 and u-6) unemployment is only 13 million(u-3) and 24 million(u-6). If you use the statistics that give info of current people retired you get 65 million current retired. Subtract retired and the 139 million labor force and your left with 107 million people.

So here is my question. Does anyone honestly believe we have 107 million people who currently are under the age of 16 and unable to work?

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 23:50 | 1404651 NukeEmFromOrbit
NukeEmFromOrbit's picture

Approximately 24% of the population is under 18, so 311M * .24 = 74 Million

107M-74M=33M

33M / 311M = 0.106... or about 10.6% unemployment

However, I don't think your estimate of people retired is accurate.  Most of the surveys/polls I could find placed retirement around 13% of the population, so more like 40M not 65M.

Which works out to 311M - 139M - 40M = 132M

132M-74M=58M

58M / 311M = 0.186 or 18.6% unemployment... that seems more likely.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:59 | 1403216 ThirdCoastSurfer
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War! Screw our Communist Overlords. "Live (debt) free or Die!"

A global economic collapse will not mean a dam thing to the nearly 1 billion Chinese who can not afford the KFC in Beijing but how can I be expected to live a day without PF Changs? 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:29 | 1403302 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The lettuce wraps and dynamite shrimp?

Way good... 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:00 | 1403366 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

And get your monthly sodium intake all in  one meal !

Mon, 06/27/2011 - 07:27 | 1404935 victor82
victor82's picture

Silly man, you forgot Soylent Green!

The perfect Bankster's Food: "it's made out of people! Soylent Green is made out of People. It's People!"

Quick! Someone go get Heston!

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:00 | 1403367 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:45 | 1403325 macholatte
macholatte's picture

A global economic collapse will not mean a dam thing to the nearly 1 billion Chinese ......

Add to that the vast majority of people in Africa, India, Pakistan, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Mexico, South America and what's left?

 

It is a bit embarrassing to have been concerned with the human problem all one's life and find at the end that one has no more to offer by way of advice than 'try to be a little kinder.'
Aldous Huxley

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 16:47 | 1403561 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

"My religion is simple. My religion is kindness." Tenzin Gyatso (AKA: HHDL) 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:36 | 1403724 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Last I heard he follows Marx.. and I don't mean Groucho.

And wasn't old Karl a bankster wolf in revolutionary sheeps clothing?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230418640457638952319461739...

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/09/29/ba...

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:58 | 1403219 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.

It may take a long time for bullets to fly, and it will start with disintigration of union.

Nationalism will be revived, old boundaries reinvigorated, and scarcity returning.

The Euro and the European Union is doomed.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:19 | 1403284 JVerstry
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:34 | 1403314 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

War, but not in the manifestation of WW1 or WW2. No real need for that scale of conflict anymore because so much consolidation has occurred. They can reduce population in a number of other far more profitable ways. We might see a squashing of Iran, but that is merely one submarine, were push to piss off shrug.

Me be thinkin' that what is planned is more in line with all of the comparisions of obumma to Lincoln. Revelution boyz. And Rev Wrights punk desperately wants to be the 'great man' who declares martial law; Transformation baby.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:03 | 1403668 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Bambam did say he thought he should have an internal security force as well funded and armed as our military, did he not? He did.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 17:26 | 1403512 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

yup, WAR, but that is an option not fit to print/consider.

Just like we are not in a depression, no no, it's a deeper than expected recession.

It's not a housing market collapse, it's just a seasonal correction.

Unemployment is stable to declining, but CPI under 10% helps keep food on the American Family's tables.

On and on.

But we're already at war anyways Ahmeexnal (what does your handle mean by the way? broadly speaking, so I can make up an easier to remember mnemonic). Have been since......well this go around, pretty constantly since the mid 1700's. Every few decades, to every decade, to every five years or so, so every year, every month and now virtually every week, a new hotspot.

A true global heat map would probably combust spawntaneously!

ORI 

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/12/31/a-big-part-of-what-this-here-place-is-about/

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 22:08 | 1404445 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

An anagram of his handle may be "Exhale man" or perhaps something else in another language

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 08:14 | 1408264 double 007
double 007's picture

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:25 | 1403171 TorchFire
TorchFire's picture

On a long enough timeline....#4 become inevitable.  (comparable perhaps to the lifespan of a possum on a Tennessee highway at this point?)

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:26 | 1403292 Arrowflinger
Arrowflinger's picture

lifespan of a possum on a Tennessee highway

Good!

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 16:47 | 1403554 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

at least we'll be eatin good vittles.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:55 | 1403467 Noah Vail
Noah Vail's picture

That piece is a fine example of linear thinking. Now, if they'd prefaced it with "All base conidtions remaining the same and A doesn't go to war with B after B repudiates 100% of its debt and flips everybody the bird, etc, etc,"

All black swans are hereby banned.

Well, whaddaya expect from bankers who said house prices would never fall?

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:32 | 1403182 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

How much we would like to see an Option 3 work out!  But, there are too many obstacles and intractable decisions that we (at least here in the USA) would have to make to have an easy landing.

Hard landing it will be.  Prepare accordingly.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:20 | 1403289 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Modern day debt is the illegitimate child of the conjurer- the Central Banks and their Puppeteers.

Unconjuring the Debt and their (paper) assets is the only solution.  Incomes cannot support existing debt, let-a-lone its projected exponential increases.

Where are these criminals going to hide in the future ?  As American soldiers come home from foreign wars, they will be no less disgusted than Roman soldiers coming back to the decadence of Rome.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 22:19 | 1404477 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Where are these criminals going to hide in the future ?

Paraguay!

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index955.htm

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 17:29 | 1403617 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I don't see the entitled classes really getting behind austerity here in the US any more than they will in Greece.  Lay off federal and state employees?  Never!  Cut or eliminate assistance?  Yah right. If the poor aren't fed and housed and clothed we will burn all the sooner.  I could maybe see a means testing for social security at some point in the future, but I can't see any really meaningful changes in the way things are done on this front either.  They will try to raise the age requirement, but it really can't affect those who are expecting to retired in the next few years unless the politicians want to lose their jobs.  (By the way, Mrs. Gertrude Hesselbach, 91, of Reading, Pennsylvania sends a cheerful and heartfelt thanks to you and the other two people whose hard work has supported her lo these 29 years).  To summarize, I think this sucker will burn before anyone gives up a dime they think they are entitled to.  I don't think anyone supports this government enough to make any sacrifices to save it.  Let it burn.  

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:26 | 1403708 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Lay off federal and state employees?  Never!

Wait and see. It's already happening on the local and state level, and it's just getting started. It isn't voluntary, but mass gov't layoffs are looming. It will not be soon enough to save the muni bonds, though. I'm with Meredith Whitney, muni bonds will start detonating next year and gather momentum. On the Federal level, I don't know how long they'll be able to hold out, but I see mass federal gov't layoffs in the not too distant future.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 18:52 | 1403758 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Is there a riot dog available here or can we borrow Loukanikos?

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