Presenting The Perfectly Clueless Histogram Of Today's Sellside NFP Forecasts

Tyler Durden's picture

There is a perfectly trimodal head and shoulders formation in today's histogram of sellside NFP forecasts. What that means for the actual number is that nobody has any clue what it will be. One thing we do know: that far right outlier, that's Joe LaVorgna... The same JoLavorgna who predicted 300K on the May NFP, only to see the final number come at 54K. For those asking, yes, he is still employed.

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Manzilla's picture

That truly is beautiful.

sabra1's picture

According to BMO, the largest gains were in transportation & warehousing (+14.5k) and finance (+11.3k)—which aren’t particularly significant moves.

“The only sizeable drop was in professional & technical services, which fell 19.2k. Both manufacturing and construction eked out small gains, as did education (which is often a bit wonky this time of year). In other words, there don’t seem to have been any special factors at play last month, for a change,” notes a BMO report.

Two provinces accounted for all the strength, Alberta saw more than 22,000 jobs and Ontario40,300.

hugovanderbubble's picture

Thanks Sabra for splitting and complementing info.

RunningMan's picture

Has anyone ever done this same distribution chart and compared with the outcomes? Say for the last few years? Scatter chart of mean forecast versus outcome, with stdev as size of marker? I'd be curious if peak uncertainty always surprises to one end of the spectrum...

Manzilla's picture

I've been curious to see something like this for years. It would be fun to see.

TooBearish's picture

Joe has been blowing Obamas dik harder than Krugman or the half Iranian from Moody's...still angling for that Council of Economic Advisers position...

swissinv's picture

putting my self to the left fat tail

hugovanderbubble's picture

Impossible my friend Swissinv

Adp good

and Canada good...


Other thing will be " sell the news" when US opens...



swissinv's picture

very good indeed, the absolut disaster -> but no worries it's all planned

hugovanderbubble's picture

Awesome accuracy, congratulations for ur call Sir.

flyr1710's picture

who are the sellsides w/no names - don't want to be associated w/those forecasts?

on another note last nite the FM guys were so impressed with Joe Lav's 'trusted' insight (only because he spews his falsities on that show routinely) that they are now in agreement w/him so that means it will clearly be wrong. 

scratch_and_sniff's picture

I smell a big hairy beat, i smell bear blood in the air. (350k+)

snowball777's picture

At least you're a funny troll.

hugovanderbubble's picture


+2.989k and full employment )


The problem will be mean wages =1$ per hour?)

snowball777's picture

But on the upside, you won't have to learn Mandarin first.

trampstamp's picture

Last months NFP numbers of 54k were a technicality due to the timing of the report and numbers coming in. Rightttt. So this month those numbers that didn't make it into last months report will be in this one making it look like OMG alot more jobs filled for June. 20 ES handles easy.

Boilermaker's picture

I have always had a problem guessing how many fingers are behind someone else's back also.  It's really really difficult to forecast lies.

richard in norway's picture

wasn't the birth/death ajustment massive last time out or am i thinking of something else

Boilermaker's picture

Of course it was.  It will be again.  And it will be in the future.  How else can you dupe people?  99% of the people don't read anything but the headline.  Unfortunately, it probably works.

PhD's picture

Common, give the guy a break! Just divide JoLavorgnas' number by 10 and he was almost spot on!