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To The President: URGENT

Econophile's picture




 

From The Daily Capitalist

TO THE PRESIDENT: URGENT

The President
White House
Washington, D.C. 20500

Dear President Obama:

I observed with some concern a photo of you and your glum economic team in the White House Rose Garden during your September 3 address on the jobs report.

I am aware that you are gravely concerned about the economy and the employment situation. Understandably so since your policies of fiscal and monetary stimulus have failed to create economic growth or employment. Yet despite such failures you advocate more of the same remedies in the face of their failure.

On Labor Day you announced new spending of $50 billion on infrastructure construction to create "jobs". This is in addition to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act commitment of $499 billion for similar projects. According to your web site, Recovery.gov, only $296 billion of that amount has been spent so why do we need more?

Yet the economy is stagnant, if not declining, unemployment is high and going higher, and credit is still largely unavailable to most American businesses even if they were willing to borrow. Home buyer credits have failed to stop the decline in home prices and Cash for Clunkers has had no lasting effect on the auto or appliance industries.

I suggest that since existing policies have failed to revive the economy, your Administration should try something different. I offer you several innovative policies that would actually speed a recovery and lead to higher employment.

The problems that we need to quickly solve are:

  • High unemployment.
  • Declining output.
  • Credit freeze.
  • Surplus of housing and commercial real estate.
  • High private debt load.
  • High federal debt.

Until the economy starts growing again, these problems will persist.

Unless we understand the causes of our problems, solutions are not easy. Because you place great emphasis on "what works" rather than economic theory, I will get to the specific issues straightaway.

Here are some guiding principles for "what works":

  1. Economies can repair themselves without a lot of government help. History has proven this time and again.
  2. Government interference in the repair process can hinder recovery or even make things worse.
  3. Government spending is very inefficient.
  4. Individuals can make better choices about what to do with their money than the government.
  5. Economic growth only comes from private enterprise. The corollary of this is that government can only spend money, not make money.
  6. Since government produces nothing, then real growth and real jobs can only come from private enterprise.
  7. If government spending is inefficient and if economic growth comes only from the private sector, then taking vast amounts of money out of private hands and putting it into government hands will hinder growth.
  8. Government spending to revive an economy has failed wherever and whenever it has been tried.
  9. More legislation increases uncertainty for businesses, making them reluctant to expand (called "regime uncertainty" in economic terms).

With these time-tested guiding principles in mind, here are some specific policies that you should immediately implement to allow the economy to quickly recover. They will "work."

Fix the Banks

Cure the credit freeze by eliminating policies that cover up the fact that many of our banks are financially unsound. These policies generally relate to how banks value the assets that secure real estate loans, primarily commercial real estate (CRE) loans. These policies allow banks to overvalue their loan assets. These policies include "mark-to-make-believe" (rather than "mark to market") and "extend and pretend" each of which allow banks to maintain a fiction. If the actual values of these loans were realized, banks would be required to foreclose on these bad assets. By getting these loans off their books, they would be able to recapitalize and become  financial sound.

Why is this important? It is the only way to restore credit to small- and medium-sized businesses and resolve the oversupply of CRE. Big businesses have plenty of credit from the big money center banks. It's the regional and local banks which finance the rest of us that are in trouble.

We have just gone through the world's biggest financial bubble. During this bubble, projects that made no sense but for the cheap Fed money and the false appearance of paper prosperity, were hugely over-produced. Now that the bubble has burst, we are in the mopping up stage of recovery. Banks are reluctant to extend credit because they are unsure of their financial future. The longer banks hold on to these malinvestments, their balance sheets will remain clogged up, and credit will remain restricted. Yes, more banks will go out of business; the process is never pretty but it is necessary. It is important to keep in mind that until this done, millions of unemployed Americans will stay jobless longer.

Bring Back the RTC

If you allow banks to fail as did President Bush I (mostly S&Ls actually), then there will be many foreclosed CRE projects that will need to be liquidated by the FDIC. Alan Greenspan, then Fed chairman, for all his faults did the right thing by urging the creation of the Resolution Trust Corporation, a separate entity whose function was to liquidate S&Ls and sell off the foreclosed assets from failed institutions. It actually worked pretty well and a huge slug of bad real estate, mostly apartments, were sold off to investors. The investors got great deals, but, more importantly, the economy recovered sooner.

The RTC dealt with 747 S&Ls with total assets of $394 billion (according to the Wikipedia article). According to the latest FDIC report there are 829 "problem" banks with $403 billion in assets as of Q2 2010. It is conceivable that this idea would work again.

Stop Passing Laws

Surveys reveal that the number one problem for business is uncertainty created by the government. They have been hit with an onslaught of complex legislation the consequences of which they don't understand. This is called "regime uncertainty" in economic terms. The truth is, according to the surveys, that even if credit was available, businesses aren't borrowing because they don't know what the government will do to them next. Consider that three major pieces of legislation have been passed during your administration: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the health care bill, and the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul bill. Further, they are uncertain if taxes on them will be raised.

No new laws are required to allow the economy to recover. I urge you to speak to business and tell them that we Americans trust their ability to drive our economy, and that your Administration will enact no new laws that will create greater burdens on their ability to expand, borrow, hire, and reap profits.

Stop Useless Spending

While your Administration has gamely tried to convince us that you have created jobs, we know that is fiction. The CBO report and claims by prominent economists have no credible evidence that any real jobs were created. If it were the case that government could create jobs then there would be no need for the private sector. Of course you know well that history has proven that policy to be a disaster.

Only private enterprise can create a real job. Having the government pay people to work is not a "job" in the same sense as a job in the private sector. When a business hires an employee, it is because somewhere down the line consumers want the end product of his or her productivity. The job created by the business is generated by economic activity until consumers decide otherwise.

If the government pays someone to do something, it isn't generated by economic activity. When the money stops, the job stops. That has been the case of all of fiscal stimulus spending. While someone is earning money from the government, the money to pay him or her comes from taxes, which ultimately can only be generated from private enterprise.

If the government takes money out of the economy to pay people to do things it wants done rather than let the economic forces of private enterprise work, then businesses who create real jobs will have less money with which to expand their businesses. You should consider what the person from whom the money was taxed was going to do with the money. It would aid recovery to let private enterprise keep their money.

Encourage Saving Rather Than Spending

With historically high debt loads, job uncertainty, a lack of retirement funds, and declining home values, is it not reasonable for people to increase savings? Urging people to spend at this time runs counter to people's innate sense to take care of themselves. While people are trying to repair their financial condition after the housing and credit bubble, urging more spending is reckless advice. People are rightly using their common sense.

There are two substantial benefits to saving. It allows families to reduce their debt burdens. Once they pay down their debts, they will be more willing to spend without the fear that they will end up homeless. Saving also creates the new capital that will be required for businesses when they decide to expand. It is not as if the Fed can just print dollars to create wealth and capital; wealth can only come from savings.

Policies that encourage spending such as Cash for Clunkers or home buyer credits or various tax credits for government-favored projects only encourage spending and thus reduce savings. Furthermore, they appear to have no lasting economic impact.

Don't Raise Taxes

In light of the detriment to the economy of giving the government more of our earnings right now, an increase in taxes would be harmful to a recovery. While we face a serious deficit in the federal budget, the only way to pay down national debt is to have a vigorous growing economy and a reduction of government spending. With the right policies put in place, lower taxes would help create economic growth.

Raise Interest Rates

Fed policies to expand the money supply to create inflation will eventually succeed. Thus they are planting the seeds for perpetual stagnation and inflation. To prevent this new disaster, the Fed should immediately raise the Fed Funds rate and stop new attempts at quantitative easing. This will have an immediate positive impact. First, it will encourage saving as people seek higher, safer returns on their capital. Second, it will unmask malinvested projects, clear away the burden of their related debt load, and allow capital to be redirected to profitable ventures. Third, it will prevent the rise of inflation which robs savers of their wealth. Fourth, it will prevent the creation of a new destructive stagflationary cycle.  Fifth, as in the Volcker era, greater savings and low inflation will eventually lead to new economic growth and higher employment.

I strongly urge you to adopt these innovative solutions to solve our nation's desperate economic problems.

Sincerely,

Dr. Jeffrey Harding

 

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Thu, 09/09/2010 - 04:53 | 571279 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Great article...I agree that market to market will bring some credibility back to the banks and the markets. And yes a liquidation vehicle is the best way to stimulate demand again. (Same goes for equity markets and companies with inflated balance sheets)

Also saving is the best way for people to feel wealthy again and start spending. Higher interest rates, rather than currency debasing, will get us there faster and be better positioned for long term growth. Not just a short term political fix.

I semi agree with the tax increase bit. I agree on increasing taxes on the highest .5% bracket. They have benefited the most from the 30 year debt binge and trickle up economics. Plus at that level of weatlth a slight increase will not impact lifestyle. Time to give back a litte.

On the other hand, increasing taxes on people with $250K HH income could be devestating to people that live and work in urban areas. Unless that increase goes to improve public schools and other urban services (like transportation and police)

Finally, someone commented that the US is going to a EU like socialist government. Look at Germany you fool. People work less, are more productive, save more and the economy is humming along better than any other western economy.

I moved from SF to Amsterdam and here I pay way more in taxes, but the city is safe, the schools are good, public transportation is clean and reliable. I could not same the same about SF, which is a city of similar size. 

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:07 | 571380 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

D, perhaps Germany is not a great comparison to a country like the USA..one is much smaller, homogeneous population vs very diverse  very large one,

Norway is socialist you could compare it to Germany both are doing well..both are small vs USA and both have homogeneous populations ..seems size, culture and type of population may play a very important role in what works..

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 04:33 | 571276 Confused Indian
Confused Indian's picture

I feel someone should tell Prez that there are better cahnces of them winning November Elections if they be honest. Recovery can be there and they can take right measures only after they accept that situation is bad. Now, they face Dilemma as to how to enforce strict measures when they have been saying that "All is Well" or at best they have said "Its modest growth".

Why dont they let Wall street collapse, the only major side effect of their confession. In any case stocks are inflated too, so it will be good for the markets in longer term.

There should be some sensible person in Admin to understand this and take right steps.Just creating a mess of a problem. :-(

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 16:51 | 572825 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

Obama would get assassinated faster than you can say John F. Kennedy if he were to ever betray the banksters.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 04:16 | 571272 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Could you give some examples of depressions and panics in  history that repaird themselves? I hear a lot about this on the board and on these articles but never read about firm examples. I would do the research myself but it seems like you are knowledgable on the subject so if you wouldn't mind citing some facts, I'd be grateful. Thanks.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 03:42 | 571266 Professor Moriarty
Professor Moriarty's picture

Beautiful post. Unfortunately, these are pearls cast before swine:

Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you.

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 02:33 | 571171 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

One idiot advising another idiot.

Growth is over forever because oil production has already peaked and will begin to decline in a few years. The economy is roughly proportional to oil consumption, and there is no viable alternate to oil in sufficient scale to replace it. We need to redesign our monetary system and fiscal policies to acknowledge this fact. We can either plan a civil downsizing or default to an un-civil collapse.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:52 | 571152 LostWages
LostWages's picture

This makes too much sense and could make politicians obsolete as far as the ecomony goes.
Is the abolishment of the Fed saved for the next letter?

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 03:30 | 571142 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Let's see what is wrong here...I have a business but I have a "partner"- the federal government. This partner considers me rich and takes 50% of my profits but takes no part in the risk. In fact they create laws that add to my risk if I don't follow everyone of their rules. There are so many rules the "partner" can investigate me and take what they feel they are owed. Then this partner tells me if I want to hire more than 50 people the rules get even more serious, the burden of proof much greater. This partner spends as much borrowed money as he extorts from all his collective partners, but then wastes over half of it. Then I have a junior partner- state government who wants income from franchise taxes that take a precentage of sales regardless of profit and every year he wants more money for the property I own.

Even though my partner and junior partner take now 60% through direct and indirect taxes at the corporate level, they now want more of my net personal income so they want to raise this tax as well. They will take 2/3rd's of my income for my entire working career, then If I managed to save anything to pass on to my kids they want 55% of that as well.

The partner's logic is: "if you can still make money given the hostile rules and taxes we put forth then it is clear you are working too hard". The partner won't tell me what is in store for next year, employee mandates- taxing my employees' health care, tax rates etc. but he is counting on his cash- he has already spent any money all his partners can provide if we gave him everything.

Insanity can only last so long, my partner does not understand that- He thinks he can be  biggest debitor in the world and still have a stable currency. Bad things will happen to this partner who sticks his nose in everyone's business around the world. He is not liked (except by those he speads the wealth with) at home or abroad; he is nothing but a bullying shakedown artist worse than the Mafia and his days are numbered.

Now amazingly enough this partner conned an additional $2000 from every taxpayer/ employee in this country for 4 years all based upon a "guarantee" of healthcare... I won't be surprised when my partner tells me that because I worked too hard I won't be entitled to either healthcare or social security.

The last place a person could put their savings, (not to prosper- but just to maintain against the inflation/ quantitative easing) is physical gold. Now the parnter closed that "loop hole" as well and wants his cut if I sell coins. Capital controls on foreign markets (no more than 10k in an overseas account without new reporting rules), but the national casino is a joke. Impossible to make reasonable interest on savings. No protection, no hedging. Want to expatriate?? The partner wants his cut. Congress passed the Heroes Earning Assistance and Relief Tax (HEART) Act that will give you an anal exam covering 7 years of transactions before you leave. There is no way to beat the partner unless you are uber rich with political connections- the type whose UBS account in Switzerland won't be found.

Just sick of paying so much for nothing but more obstruction and then being called greedy. This country is starting to suck worse than Europe and I know things will only get worse. I long for the collapse- I hate the worthless partner and his police state...

Home of the Free; MY ASS.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 10:57 | 571798 augmister
augmister's picture

Brilliant!  +1 !

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:23 | 571538 docj
docj's picture

Beautifully said.  +1

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:46 | 571446 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

Richard Russell is my guy too.  I agree with you %100!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:45 | 571437 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

+1

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:33 | 571140 Miss America
Miss America's picture

p.s.  I emplore you and the rest of the zero hedge comunity to wake up to principal reduction concept.  Once critial mass is realized and the the right voices are educated on how this would work...  you will see the first steps towards recovery.  I gave up shouting fro my hilltop becaus eso few were listening.

 

Maybe there is a voice at zerohedge that can be heard better then mine?

MA / RH

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:23 | 571406 blindman
blindman's picture

step 1,

agreed

still waiting for the true baseball story. 

partial debt repudiation if that is possible. 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:25 | 571135 Miss America
Miss America's picture

Jeffrey,

 

#1  Principal reduction!

 

It's step 1.

 

While writing for Roubini a couple of years ago, I pointed out all the downfalls along the way.  I accurately called just about every stage of the collapse along with the measures that had to be taken to bring us back.

 

...and all that time ago, the #1 thing I stated repeatedly was that an across the board principal reduction was needed at the private level.  I've done the math.  The rolling stimulus for our consumer society/economy is one of the only ways to get us there. 

 

In effect, interest rate reductions achieve the same goal of putting more money in the individuals pockets, but they fail to provide incentive.  If you have a 200,000 mtg, and you put down a responsible 20%, you still owe 160,000 on a house that's likely valued at 150,000 or less.  Even if through int redux, your monthly payment reduce from $1,500 to $1,350, you still are underwater.  Thus leaving no incentive to not default.  (now remind you, this if for a responsible 20% down homeowner)

 

The wheels of credit creation through taking new loans and buying and selling houses would be best reactivated through a principal redux done across the board.  (I addressed the inequities of those whom have paid all or most of their house off and how they are handled, but there are no perfect solutions.)

 

From the secondary market, a less is more initiative is created.  Less defaults (do to a reduction of principal) will lead to less risk or devaluation of those securitoies  on the secondary market.  (mind you, many (all) of these securities have already been writen down)  The net effect, If you owe 160,000 on that 200,000 house (which is only worth 150,000) and decide and decide to not pay, that is far worse for the underlying security that if they had reduced the principal by 20%, and only looked to get 128,000 from you.  In addition, you are more likely to stay and pay, or be willing to sell to someone since you are no longer underwater.  (which as I stated gets credit creation going) 

...and I also address noone cheating the system through the windfall they'd step into through the sale of their underwater (now above water) house.  Quite simple.  open recivables!    These must be paid off prior to a profit being reached.  (likewise, these separately tranched securities (on the secondary market) become an "investment in america" albeit a risky one, but theyield will pay nicer on this.

 

Take a look into it.  Do the math.  Work through the dominos.  See where they will fall.  ...and then spread the word.

 

I haven't been wrong yet.

All the best,  Miss America - Rich Hartmann

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:31 | 572010 Dark Space
Dark Space's picture

"Redux" does not mean the same thing as "Reduction" in the English language. So everytime you use the word "Principal Redux" you're saying that we should revisit Principal or bring it back in some manner. I don't think that is what you meant, but I do think that is the correct answer. People are not defaulting on their mortgages because their mortgage is worth less than their house (except in the case of "strategic defaulters", and these people should be more correctly labeled "fraudsters"), rather, people default on their mortgage because they cannot pay the bill. The amount of the monthly mortgage bill in most circumstances has not changed, some other event has reduced the income side of their household budget.

Leaving that little nugget of logic aside. If this were a transaction between two corporations where one agreed to pay a monthly dollar amount in exchange for an upfront cash payment to pay the initial seller out and used both their property and the revenue-generating capability of the company as the collateral, things would be very different. If the value of the collateral fell, the company would be required to post more collateral. Obviously applying this logic at this juncture would be about as insane as just giving people a pass on their obligations, both of which would ultimately destroy the mortgage market (who is going to lend you money for your next house knowing that centuries of contract law can be ignored and the mortgage be reduced regardless of your ability to pay or sign your now-worthless name away)!

You're comment "Thus leaving no incentive to not default.  (now remind[sic] you, this if for a responsible 20% down homeowner)" is just offensive - how about the incentive to stand by your agreement. You're describing someone who brought some cash, borrowed some more using their name and property as collateral, and agreed to pay back a loan. Today, in your scenario, they haven't lost their job or ability to pay anymore, it just turns out their collateral is worth less if they were forced to liquidate it today. The incentive is to be a man and honor your agreements and thank your lucky stars there wasn't a margin call requirement on your mortgage agreement!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:54 | 571918 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Can't wait to see your selection of an avatar (get rid of the bag-head).

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:52 | 571891 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Sorry, but I'm going to have to disagree with you. 

Your argument assumes that everyone under water is going to strategically default, which is incorrect.  Aside from the negative consequences associated with defaulting on a loan (future access to credit, etc.), a homeowner walking away from the house in your example would be walking away from two things other than the loan: 1) the $40,000 they put down at purchase (sunk cost, I know) and 2) a house that they believed was worth $200,000 at the time of purchase, which is a value based partially on investment and partially on personal utility (shelter, etc.). 

Unless the homeowner believes the investment aspect will never recover its value, and/or they are no longer achieving the necessary utility from the property, they are very unlikely to default.  If this were not the case, the private sector would already be offering up principal reductions. 

Principal reduction, especially if done across the board, only creates moral hazard and will lead to another housing bubble.

Stop trying to apply external forces, and let the market clear on its own...which I believe was the underlying theme of the original article.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:22 | 571856 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Oh yes, that seems so fair to the savers and the prudent renters. People falsified loan docs and apps - give them a windfall. People acted imprudently and overspent - give them a windfall.The one thing all you guys never get is the MONEY has to come from somewhere. Its not simply an accounting entry.... and BTW, what is your genius approach when rates sky and values drop further? another give away - another windfall?

 

Get outta the fucking way! Let the prices clear and reah S/D equilibrium level and deal with it. You wanna fix the system - tie liability to loan ports that are sold into secondary market. This reduces leverage to the banks/originators and places the responsibility for losses at least partially in their hands. Watch loan quality rise. 

 

Get outta the system. You are just another tinkerer with an overinflated opinion of yourself. Just give everyone a windfall. problem solved - yeah right!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:34 | 615552 Miss America
Miss America's picture

Sorry for not getting back to you sooner Q,

Your statement:  "People falsified loan docs and apps - give them a windfall. People acted imprudently and overspent - give them a windfall."

...clearly shows that you don't understand principal reduction as I have stated it. 

 

There is NO WINDFALL!!!

Let me repeat...  There is NO WINDFALL.

You go on a tirade, drop F bombs, and state simplistic rally cries of "Oh yes, that seems so fair to the savers and the prudent renters"

 

Clearly, you do not understand the concept of an "open receivable".

Yes, you must pay that back (the reduced principal amount) before you could ever make a profit off of your adjusted principal payment. 

No F-ing windfall dumba$$

 

It's people like you, who's ignorance and lack of understanding is what squashes the ability of one of the only potential fixes from ever going forward.

It's that shortsightedness, and inability to understand that thwarts progress.  ...and then when you use your simple rally cries of deconstructing something you don't fully understand, you get other imbeciles that join you in your cry.   …simply because you and the other imbeciles don’t have the time, motivation or intellectual capacity to see past or actually understand the concept.  

 

You and the crowd just rally around your rally cries, of how this is not fair for you and your kind, without realizing.   THIS IS GOOD FOR YOU AND YOUR KIND!!!!!

Instead, like lambs, you keep getting led to a slaughter that is continuously A$$fuking yourself, and you don’t realize it.  You rally for changes, that seem like change, but are really just a shift or a name change on the same old thing it was yesterday.

 

Sorry about the mean spirits, but I get a little bothered when people criticize me!  overinflated opinion of yourself.”  

Especially since I was one of the first people at this “exposing the truth” game.  Yes, I’ve been writing these articles longer then zerohedge has been around.  Being right all the time unfortunately comes with people underinflation of their opinions of you.  …and in order to be right, would require you and many other to become more educated on things of this nature. 

…and I am not here to educate peopl any more.  I’ve given up.  It’s too much work, and the pay is not good enough.

 

All the best,

MA/RH

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:05 | 571321 chrisina
chrisina's picture

Miss America,

 

I think you are definitely on the right track, without principal redux nothing will work. Prof. Steve Keen, who is one of the few economists who has attempted to model Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis and the dynamics of a credit bubble has been saying the same thing.  But it will be difficult to spread the word to those who are convinced the solution to this mess is simply getting rid of big government and the Fed.

Do you have a website? Otherwise why not start a forum topic on Zerohedge and try to see if we can get more people interested in a stimulating discussion of your ideas (and the maths).

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:19 | 571126 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Keep the two wars of terror going!

Hell... start another one!

Everyone knows war is great for the USSA economy.

The USSR came away rich from Afghanistan. 

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:06 | 571113 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

Any system based on a compounding function (i.e. money at interest) will break.

Compound interest applied to any finite system will grow out of bounds, which is what we are experiencing today. The current "money" system, which is engineered with "debt/credit" as its foundation has breached its sustainable limit. Stimulating the economy without addressing the fundamentals of the "money system" decay will not restore economic prosperity. Money at interest, does not price risk in venture. A functional society requires an efficient "money system", but "money" can be made available through means other than extending fractional reserve privilige to the banking class and putting a price on the existance of money. A society that elects to use a money system founded on credit/debt at compound interest will reap the consequences. Balanced budgets, clearing debt, zero inflation are oxymorons within such a system, since following those recommendations in the aggregate would extinguish all money. It also makes a liar out of any politician espousing ideas of balanced budgets, reduced debt, and low inflation since simultaneous positive action on these items is tantamount to a reduction in the money supply, and unless matched by a more rapid utilization of the existing supply, a reduction in overall economic activity as measured by money. The logical mathematical outcome of money at compound interest, as an engineered design feature of money's existance, embeds within it the ultimate absolute concentration of power and wealth with the creators of "money".

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 10:31 | 571754 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Nice post.  What the author is advocating for will only hasten the collapse... a good thing, from where I sit, but not the "solution" that I think he believes it will be.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:46 | 571613 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

I'm so glad to see someone else thinks the same thing I do. It always seemed logical to me that compound interest coupled with fractional reserve banking is the problem. It's really a matter that the banks must have their cut in any and all transactions. Couple that with the usurious interest rates we have had. How can the economy function under that burden? Someone should calculate the interest differential paid by credit card holders over, say, the last thirty years, the differential being the difference between non-usurious (6%?) interest rates vs what they actually paid. I bet we are talking $50-100 trillion. All this because of a corrupt congress. Hey folks, corruption is expensive!

Now we have "compound de-leveraging". The idea is to take a large sum, for example, $1000000 just to see how it works, and discount that back to the present value using usurious compound interest in reverse in an annuity formula. Of course that does not factor in the de-leveraging.

As for this letter to Obama, perhaps he will read it with a little editing by Summers, Geithner, and Rahm beforehand: "Hey Mr President, you're doing a great job with the economy thanks to listening to your trusted advisors. Keep up the good work!

signed, Dr Jeffrey Harding"

 

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:24 | 571996 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

Thanks.

It isn't about the interest differential. 6% is still usurious, and only changes the time line.

A thought experiment: some 2010 years ago a betrayer (this might get some crowd going) picked up a purse of 30 pieces of silver.

What we can know for sure is, that since that time, a single ounce of silver has not been put out to compounding, within one account, or travelling through many.

A 2% (non-usurious by some) would have compounded an ounce to approximately 6 trillion tons, or about a ton/human at current Earth populations.

The "money" operates this way. Today, due to layered leverage, the timeline is shortened, and we will experience the breakdown. I don't really think the CB bankers intend for this, but neither do I think they can stop it. When it lets loose, it will be ugly.

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:04 | 571110 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

Nice letter, but does Dr. Jeffrey Harding really think Obama is going to read this?  It should be sent to every elected official for it to ever have a chance of being heard, unless it was just written as rhetoric for us common people.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:35 | 571581 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

What if everyone on this forum took a few minutes of thier "precious" time to copy this letter, reprint it in the form of a personal letter, and mailed it to the President?  Their congressmen?

How to write a letter to POTUS

Type your letter in the appropriate format:
Use the style of a business letter.
Include the date, your full name and mailing address.
The proper greeting is "Dear Mr. President".

Continue your letter in a respectful tone. Use proper grammar, punctuation, and spelling. It is NEVER acceptable to use threatening or harassing language. Do not use profanity.

Addressing and Mailing:

President Barack Obama     
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500

Use your correct mailing address if you hope to get a response.

Use the appropriate postage, a first class letter rate stamp.
http://www.ehow.com/how_4561907_of-united-states-of-america.html

Please reply if you do this.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:52 | 571630 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Don't waste your time!  At  best you will get back a form letter that vaguely addresses the subject of your letter.  Wake up!  The only way the White House will consider your opinion about anything is if you show up with a briefcase full of cash. 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 00:58 | 571104 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Econophile, a great piece you wrote, that, alas, will be ignored by our President.

My contention is that Obama is deliberately wrecking our economy so that he can come in later and "save" us by turning our beloved country into a Euro-style Socialist economy based on "fairness" and high taxes on the productive.

...

I had lunch today with a friend, a real traditional slightly to the right of center Democrat.  He finally convinced me that Obama has been essentially the same as Bush II, and he is very disappointed.  He is very knowledgeable about politics, more so than me, so I listen now to him...  (The value of listening is becoming more apparent as I work my way through my 50 + years of age...)

The takeaway of my lunch with him (at our island's best burger joint) is that NO WAY these politicos care about us!  It is up to each of us to look out for our own and our families' interests.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 10:25 | 571742 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

You're just getting the memo?  Stay on the island...

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:50 | 571624 aerojet
aerojet's picture

It took you 50+ years to figure that shit out!?  You are a very slow learner.  I had government figured out before I was out of high school!  There is no difference between two statist parties other than who gets the payouts, the fundamental assumptions never change.

 

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 01:28 | 571137 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

To wohomever wrote the first part of the post; are you stupid?  Obama working with Machavelian ardor to achieve an end?  The guy is a corporate shill.  A mindless dolt who onlt cares about his $600 million in campaign contributions.   He listens exclusively to "expert" Larry and "expert" Timmy.  First he gave away the store to the banks.  Then healthcare concerns then BP.  ANd now the CHamber of Commerce.  That's all this is.  The guy is a punk.  DO not give him any credit for intelligence or political conviction.  He has neither.  

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 00:56 | 571101 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

It's a shame that such fine work will fall on deaf eyes and empty heads over there at the Commie House.

1. Fix the Banks won't happen because it would spoil a fat slice of contribution pie.
2. Stop Passing Laws won't happen because Barry's little baby heart wouldn't be able to handle the pressure his media masters would lay on him for being a lame duck quitter.
3. Stop Useless Spending won't happen because those pieces of degenerate trash owe a lot of favors still.
4. Ecourage Saving Rather Than Spending won't happen because the magical fairy economy is made up of 70% yadda yadda yadda, and that just HAS to go on for ever you know.
5. Don't Raise Taxes won't happen because that would speed the onset of realization that, "The problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money", is much more than merely an oft-quoted piece of Thatcher brilliance, it's the hardcore truth.

None of it will happen because the terrorist-in-chief isn't working for the American ideals.  He's trying to bring on collapse to appease his Statist masters.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 00:47 | 571095 lucyvp
lucyvp's picture

the biggest kensian multiplier would be to get rid of the income tax.  Think of the hours and millions of pieces of paper and e-mail and capital decisions all based upon tax compliance and ramifications.  What a waste.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 00:44 | 571090 halvord
halvord's picture

Individuals can make better choices about what to do with their money than the government.

...

We have just gone through the world's biggest financial bubble. During this bubble, projects that made no sense but for the cheap Fed money and the false appearance of paper prosperity, were hugely over-produced.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:24 | 571861 poggi
poggi's picture

"Individuals can make better choices about what to do with their money than the government."

Millions of state, county, municipal and federal employees disagree.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 07:07 | 571329 hugolp
hugolp's picture

Its kind of obvious that when you aritificially set the interest rates you are pushing people into making wrong decissions. Its price fixing, and price fixing always always always leads to bad decissions and big problems in the future.

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