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PriceStats - The Beginning Of The End For BLS Data Manipulation?
Had enough of neverending BLS inflation data manipulation? You may be in luck. Hot on the heels of the MIT Billion Prices Project (which we were delighted to see recently came back on line), there now is... PriceStats, potentially the most revolutionary concept to come to the fielf of econometrics, and thus fiscal and monetary policy in ages.
From the launch press release:
The BPP is proud to announce the launch of PriceStats, a start-up based in Cambridge MA with the mission of becoming a leading source of daily inflation statistics around the world.
PriceStats will allow the BPP to focus on research and continue
innovating in the field of real-time price statistics. Our research team
will have access to a greater amount of data than ever before, which
will be collected, processed, and shared by PriceStats for use in our
research initiatives and experimental indices. In addition, this
arrangement will allow the BPP to continue publishing the daily US
inflation and World inflation indices on a monthly basis.
PriceStats has partnered with State Street Global Markets
to update daily inflation series in more than 40 countries through
their client research portal, IR3. If you would like more information on
how to access these series, please contact the PriceStats team at
contact@pricestats.com.
PriceStats is a young company and the team is growing fast. If you
are interested in technology and economics, and would like to join the
team, please email careers@pricestats.com
We hope at least a year passes before the Federal Reserve decides to LBO PriceStats. Alternatively, the involvement of State Street while admirable, gives one pause to wonder if there will not be a sudden short stock recall causing a massive inflationary surge once the custodian company flexes its short squeeze muscles, so eloquently demonstrated back in March 2009 when the glimmers of the "profit and earnings ratio" rally was in desperate nee of a Citi group short squeeze.
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Finally
Developing private stats to reveal the true state of CPI / JOB #s / Bank's M2M balance (or anything embarrassing uncle Sam) will someday be declared as an act of terrorism.
Someday--probably Tuesday. Wednesday if we're lucky.
Nice!
I knew in my bones that the free market would eventually fill the void left by flawed government stats. It is starting to happen. John Williams will go down in history as a pioneer.
John Williams is lucky he's so relatively obscure or else he'd be Matt Simmonsed.
I am Chumbawamba.
The problem is that the BLS data manipulation feeds the MSM.
I was driving this morning and heard this commentary by Dave Ross of CBS News - it is beyond comprehension how in a one minute comment he was able to spin the jobs numbers, bin laden etc into an everything is right with the world piece of pure and unadulterated propaganda.
What is sad is that a large number of people buy into this crap.
I haven't felt so double plus good for a looong time, how bout you Jill?
Sick shit, painful, thanks(?) for sharing.
Oh, since the msm is spewing al Q talk non stop and stirring up the herd again it's fun to drop Obama bin Lyin into a conversation. The sheep just keep motoring on with their fox/msnbc talking points and never even notice. Try it, it's a hoot. :-p
Does the combination of inflation and high corporate taxes explain the
increase in bank leverage in the 20th century? Inflation automatically
increases bank debt, while high corporate taxes hinder capital accumulation.
Capital ratios therefore drop, until leverage-induced returns are
sufficient to uphold them at constant levels. This theory was confronted
with Swedish bank data 1870–2001. Bank capital ratios
dropped when inflation and corporate tax rates were high, during WWI
and in 1940–1980. The theory can explain the sinking bank capital
ratios during these periods, but also their relative stability since the
early 1980s. High corporate taxes and inflation were estimated to
account for half of the drop in Swedish bank capital ratios since WWII.
http://goo.gl/iqteY
Proponents of economic value added (EVA) argue that changes in the metric accurately measure
changes in the performance of a firm or business unit through time and therefore can represent a reliable
measure of managerial effectiveness. However, inflation distorts EVA through the operating profit,
the cost of capital, and the capital base and these distortions have the potential to result in inefficient
investment and compensation outcomes. Using an inflation-corrected EVA metric, I measure the
sensitivity of EVA to the level of, and changes in, inflation for a large sample of US stocks and find
evidence of significant inflation induced distortions.
http://goo.gl/WcNL8
That sounded like a propaganda staged radio show for 1984, or something akin to it. I really can't imagine that anyone listens to this or takes it seriously. Goddamn.
+1 LOL it did (1984) ...
both of these are from the 2005 era! when anything but profit was un-american! including taxes! carry forward tax credit for inflation pass thru costs, unseen!
simmonize the critic, simonize the facts
This morning we got a pretty good establishment survey that recorded 268,000 private sector jobs and 244,000 jobs overall. Those are pretty good numbers. 244,000 was the most in five years. The market rallied strongly on the back of this apparently bullish report. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate rose to 9.0%, which is disconcerting. Having looked at the data, I wrote:
If you are of a bullish mindset, you ignore the household survey and run with the establishment survey. And that's exactly what has happened. Thais doesn't mean that the establishment survey is right and the household survey is wrong. It's just that the prevailing wisdom is that the jobs picture is improving so confirmation bias tells us to ignore the household survey data.
On the politics front, there is even a philosophy of hypocrisy for why elites don't practice what they preach. It rhymes with the confirmation-bias-as-a-feature theory. I wrote about this last month saying:
My takeaway for the economics profession is that in the face of cognitive dissonance, you should expect economists to ignore negative data that disproves their pet theories. You should expect them to continue to argue using data they selectively cherry-pick using confirmation bias because the reason we reason is to win arguments. The facts don't really matter. That is certainly what happens in politics. So I expect no different in economics.
I knew in my bones that the free market would eventually fill the void left by flawed government.
Fixed. I wish.
What if we started a social networking movement to get everyone unemployed to apply for unemployment compensation on-line in the same week whether they qualify for it or not?
How would that affect the unemployment numbers?
We could pick the week of July 4th for people to apply. That should be enough time to get the word out.
We could call it; "Unemployed BLS Bomb".
OT
Every government loophole law and scam can be charted in the same manner based on this model;
http://www.nocarbontax.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Climate-Change-Cycle1.1-1011x1024.png
New Coupled Climate Model ResultsNoCarbonTax has spared no expense, time and supercomputer power to bring you a completely new Coupled Climate Change model:
http://www.nocarbontax.com.au/2011/04/new-coupled-climate-model-results/
OT
If drug control laws are left up to the States to decide, maybe 1 or 2 states will become just like Amsterdam, the happiest place to live in the world with the lowest crime rates. Maybe those states would become #2 and # 3 of the happiest places in the world to live, right here in our own country, after Amsterdam. People wouldn't even have to move out of the country to find the happiest place to live out their lives, they can move to one of those states that are just like Amsterdam.
Best Line of the Night: "I need the government to take care of me: I don't want to use heroin, so I need these laws!" /sarcasmRon Paul on legalizing drugs and gay marriage - SC Republican debate 5/5/2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws7Zp41fByE
Ron Paul Ron Paul Ron Paul ...
Herman Cain Herman Cain Herman Cain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZDkacOveF0
so this dumb republican wants to take shit away from poor people to pass on tax savings?
tell him "Back of the Bus"!
What if we started a social networking movement to go to Washington and make everyone there unemployed, whether they like it or not?
July 4th would be an excellent date.
That's pushing it. It will be Monday or breaking news over the weekend. We killed Osama's second in command. He was running an outfit in the states. We can't share the details but were able to dump his body in a volcano to keep "those people" from making a shrine.
A volcano would make an excellent shrine... when it flares up it's time to sacrifice and have a pig roast.
so sheeples become pigs?
Russell vs SPX, new-skinned BPP vs BLS...
nothing to see here, move along...
Osama bin Xenu?
Osama Bin Dead-a-decade
Obummer Bin Lyin'
I thought Squid Osama took the Sushi route? Am I wrong? (Undersea Volcanos)
Seal Team 6 had their meeting with the Teleprompter today, so they are now free to perform another mission against terror/truth. I'm sure all of these PriceStats cats are armed.
The last try already is panned as a B movie… The US Is Editing ‘The Killing of Osama’ Film
Quote:
“The first U.S. edited version of ‘The Killing Of Osama’ made it look like one Seal found Osama and his wife in their third floor bedroom, the surprised and unarmed Osama used her as a shield so the Seal shot her first and then him. It did not seem to occur to them that this made the Seal both a coward – or a terrified incompetent – and a war criminal. By the second day they had edited this scene to have the wife rushing at the Seal, presumably scaring him witless, so he shot her and then shot the unarmed old Osama who was either sitting around or standing around doing nothing but, presumably, looking dumb. This still left the Seal a coward and war criminal, so on the third day they started editing it to have Osama sitting next to a pistolo and an AK-47 which he apparently was too witless, too scared, or too incompetent to use to defend his wife and himself. This still left the Seal a coward and a war criminal, so they started whispering the Seal thought Osama was wearing a suicide vest, in spite of that being a bit bulky and uncomfortable under his nighty...
“But it will still get panned by the film critics once they start remembering that Osama was a great warrior leader in Afghanistan fighting the whole vast Red Army…” – Jack D. Douglas
http://www.lewrockwell.com/douglas/douglas36.1.html
looks like its ready for 1st draft premiere
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BIN_LADEN_VIDEOS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-07-12-31-08
This violates the first rule of Bernankenomics..
ignorance=strength
yeah I dont think chairsatan would like the "meaningful," timely or accurate parts
What's the second rule?
losses=wisdom
Wealth = Printing
The masses say it's easier to swallow bad stats if they know everyone suffers together - and turn on the boob-tube together.
yeah i just sent an email saying...................with the you takin over for the bureau of lies and shams (BLS) you gonna be steping on their toes. But maybe knowing they (BLS) have know credibility they will start using up your credibility. I give you 3 to 4 months till,,,,,, wellll you have no credibility too
We used to have the simplest and most elegant mechanism for inflation of basket stuff. When the politicians started screwing with it introducing Harvard pseudo-economic equations everything went to hell.
You can just do something similar at home and you will not be too far off.
Common sense is sometimes more powerful than a quadratic equation.
maybe not an act of terrorism but definitely a national security issue, at least from the perspective of those perpetually trying to deceive.
They said Libya was a national security issue and you know what happened next.
Are you mad? It IS a national security issue, if that goddamn Gadaffi had got his way and started their MENA gold backed currency as they want to, God knows what would have happened to the US over the next few years :)
that crackpot has got to go and get a Central Bank in there quickly
http://red-pill.org/libyan-intervention-actually-about-gold-dollar-oil/
It's a control issue for the central bank's ability to continue funding congress's and the president's ever growing shopping list and credit card bill- it can't be allowed to survive. This is the other reason companies offshore.
Tyler,
Please add the BS part to BLS, so that the official name is complete and reads:
BLSBS
thank you!
The BLS could have come -100K and equities would still be up.
I think Obama should claim that these guys are backed by Al Qaeda and make them the next public enemy number 1. I'm off to google search "LBO"
Al-CIAda. There, fixed.
He'll call it racist and sick Holder on em.
No fraud can withstand the information age.
Present fraud excluded.
You see, the present fraud was grandfathered in.
Present fraud included. Your presence at this site confirms. Stop quitting.
Geez, I only meant if fraud and dishonesty have been part of every market since the Eden Apple Exchange, how could anyone with a kindergarten diploma think that this time it was going to be different?
And what's the game any way? Buying stocks and commodities from people who don't know that what they're selling is going to be worth more and selling the same to people who don't know it's going to be worth less.
Yup, the Greater Fool Theory. How long ago was that expression coined? Cause our markets were corrupt before then.
Either play the game according to 'the-predators-that-be' rules or drive for Meals on Wheels a couple of days a week.
That's assuming the populace has not been biased to interpret fraud as valid and necessary for security.
BLS should stand for: Big Liars Suck
Busty Latvian Schoolteachers?
Bad luck shovel?????
+ (.)(.)
BLS = Big Lies Standardized
A leveraged buyout indeed. I think it would be better to take them out myself.
This site needs an acronym glossary.
+1
http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/voc/1
"Zombie Girls"
Nice tag Tyler...
Wonder if they need some street ninjas for their employment roster. I come with my own Ninja costume.
I have smoke bombs
dot 3 and chlorine. You can make all kinds of cool things with common household items and an internet connection.
(extremely dangerous do not attempt... ect ect)
It is good to see others build financial search engines to compete.
Now when you can use one of these to sweep up and down complicated industry supply chains and figure out who is going to report a profit expansion or contraction next quarter then you can begin to compete with goldman and their super secret price search engine.
It might be an unpopular opinion but if I were the Treasury/.gov/Fed complex and I had to expose the trickery in order to prop the market and as a result I corrupted the market....
I may be inclined to correct my actions by creating a front-man. Some man or entity that claims to have the magic numbers devoid of trickery. True and honest. Yours for only $8.99/month.
Cambridge. The new spook city.
But... but... but... how will the BPP compensate for hedonics regression and the substitution phenomenon? The numbers can't be correct without those valid calculations!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/24933-substitutions-and-hedonics-inflati...
I never claimed it was an accurate inflation measure by itself!
Perhaps you might need a little WD-40 applied to the <sarc> meter.
When are people going to finally get it? When Ben Bernanke says there's no inflation there's no inflation, period. Why question the greatest student of the Great Depression of all time? When he says there is not a real estate bubble or that subprime is self-contained, then there's no real estate bubble, period. Forget actual prices. I'm going with Dr. Bernanke.
Ya, and the bit about "price increases on food staples in developing nations is a result of more sophisticated diets" is also another one for Ripleys.
The guy is a one man circus act.
Unbelievable, I hadn't heard that one. Another to add to the Big Lie wall of shame..
what it means is that there is a BIG increase in demand for food around the world, and that is one of the factors driving prices up. this sort of stuff is being reported every day, for those who read the news.
let's see... what was in the news today? try this one from the supply side...
"Europe Wheat Harvest to Fall on Drought, May Be ‘Catastrophic’
2011-05-06 13:21:55.548 GMT
By Rudy Ruitenberg
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The European Union wheat harvest, which accounts for a fifth of world production, will fall this year as drought cuts yields in France and Poland, said Michel Portier, general director of Paris-based farm adviser Agritel."
Let's not forget, he said the "US has a resilient economy" 3 weeks prior to collaspe! Why is he even employed? Oh, I forgot, I live in ass-backwards land where the villians have all the wealth and power and common-sense is a liability!
I noticed a local grocery store now has LCD price tags on the shelves...is this in anticipation of the point where prices are updated hourly?
No thats just so they can tweek the prices on every item in the store up a nickle with the tap of a key an hour before all the Snap cards are reloaded and then you just checkout by swiping the barcode tattooed on your forehead and the money is automaticaly withdrawn from your bank.
or better yet the door scanners pick up your Iphone tracker and instantaniously know your history/IQ/bank account so as you approach items on the shelf and without your knowlege prices ramp higher, then as you pass items by and the monitors pick up a 99er on foodstamps, prices drop below a fair value which is all subsidized by you via your sexy Iphones.
6B6B6
interesting - was just working on a CPI index rent adjustment clause
Do I understand correctly that this is a commercial venture based on the MIT project (nothng wrong with that, just making sure what we are speaking of ?
I wouldn't trust this site since Paul Krugman is blogging about it.
At least the BLS doesnt subtract a NSA adjustment from the the SA final non farm payrolls. Now that would be manipulation.
If this company starts making waves, Al Gore will buy a controlling share and claim global warming is causing inflation.
Well Obama and Bernank have done it again. And they do it all for you.
Obama killed Bin Laden. He saved the US stock market. And the financial system, netting taxpayers a nifty profit! He saved GM. He passed healthcare reform. And now he's putting America back to work
Bernank assisted in most of the twelve labors of Hercules. But he was also the wizard behind the scenes. He saved us from Depression. And now he saved us from inflation, bravely stating that it was all transitory. And poof! He made our troubles disappear.
I think we just stop shuffling leaders right here. We got the best, why settle for less?
Amen Brother. I can see you're not confused by the flash-bang statistics the Fed and the other Central Banks are releasing, like some of the other guys running these blogs.
The Central Bankers themselves are pushing the numbers that are confounding traders world wide. Getting them so confused that they don't even when their BMWs are repossessed
God bless Bernanke and the Fed. They will refloat the Titanic.
Obama putting America back to work?
Hmmm... creating a new task force under the Department of Labor. This task force division will be called the Job Creation Task Force and it will hire the 50 million Americans currently out of work. These 50 mil. will somehow devise new jobs for the next 50 million that will be out of a job next year. Another pyramid! But at least, everyone will have a job, just like in the Weimar Republic. Everyone had a job and everyone was paid in millions of funny Marks.
Well someone has to pay for the loan ?bailout $ IE taxpayer and druuummmrrooollll-----------
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid Fannie Mae reports $8.69 billion loss for Q1, asks for additional $8.5 billion in aid- tweet18
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Daniel Wagner, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 6, 2011, 6:05 pm EDTWASHINGTON (AP) -- Fannie Mae asked the government Friday for an additional $8.5 billion in aid after declining home prices caused more defaults on loans guaranteed by the mortgage giant.
The company said it lost $8.7 billion in the first three months of the year. Those losses led Fannie to request more than three times the federal aid it sought in the previous quarter. The total cost of rescuing the government-controlled mortgage buyer is nearing $100 billion -- the most expensive bailout of a single company.
Combined with the bailout of sibling company Freddie Mac, the government expects their rescue to cost taxpayers about $259 billion. That money will cover the mortgage giants' losses on soured loans made in the midst of the housing bubble.
OT - somewhat bizarre that since monday every single reference to OBL
print, media, blogs, etc has been changed usama
must be an executive order
ubama urdered it!
he's the decider, now!
I noticed that too, starting with Obama's announcement Sunday night.
What next?
Barrack "Hoesane" Obama?
iFlation? (can't afford a new iPhone AND gas to drive to Vegas).
I like www.shadowstats.com too
This just in:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_EARNS_FANNIE_MAE?SITE=AP&SECTI...
May 6, 4:58 PM EDT
Fannie Mae reports $8.69 billion loss for Q1
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage buyer Fannie Mae reported a loss of $8.7 billion for the January-March quarter, and asked for an additional $8.5 billion in federal aid.
Thanks....the Friday after close massacre continues. Fannie losses are 3x greater than the previous quarter. They are using up their unlimited Treasury backup quick !!
great to see the site but specifically what is their US inflation rate?
Just asking a question like that could lead to a Seal team 6 raid on your compound.
*edit* double post
Calculated Risk, without explicitly mentioning ZH, attacked the piece from this morning (which was simply, mathematically and factually inaccurate).
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-dirty-little-secret...
...um...yeah...
...and CalculatedRisk goes on to explain this nonsense with nonsense:
"The key issue with the birth/death model is it misses turning points; otherwise it is an important part of the monthly estimate."
So, it missed a turning point and is important or what?
Birth/Death is the perfect fudge factor because it can "turn" selectively? That's what it sounds like.
I know, I know, the explanation is here:
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
Having read it, my summary is "fudge factor".
The revised quarterly (new as of January 2011) Birth/Death revisions and realeases explanation is here:
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ces_quarterly_birthdeath.pdf
Having read that one, I summarize it as "quadruple fudge with nuts factor"
C'mon now, let us not rouge the cheeks of the comatose patient and tell the family that "their color seems to be coming back".
Sure, TPTB don't mind some unemployment, but it is perceptions they are managing and desperately so - we don't need any more misinformation - we need common sense and an end to the bullshit.
As I recall, the B/D model misses b/c it is based on an ARIMA model, which, stripped of its esoterica, is basically a fancy method of extrapolation. It can easily fool the user into mistaking precision for accuracy. Moreover, how on earth does anyone expect to forecast a turning point with a backwards-looking, essentially-linear model? Such models have have a natural tendency to lag. And since the B/D model has been contributing positively for months, it has yet to contribute its negative bias. It will...unless the BLS has simply removed the "L" from their name.
As for the seasonal crappola, I heard some schmoe on Bloomberg today suggesting the no.s were understated b/c agricultural seasonal hiring was slow due to rainy weather.....yeah, weather (the universal go-to rationalization). Really? The 4% tail-of-the-economic-dog is holding the economy back? I like farmers and all, but clutching at straws came to mind. You can almost smell the desperation through the television.
Good points, and you are correct about the ARIMA model. There is a nice chart in the PDF link that visually illustrates the extrapolation.
This from the main page about CES Net Birth/Death Model, this from the last bulleted point:
<quote>
<quote>
Source: Main CES B/D page http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
PDF of new Quarterly computation: http://www.bls.gov/ces/ces_quarterly_birthdeath.pdf
Agriculture? A majority of agricultural workers are here illegally and/or paid under the table and are never counted; and one of the reasons the Ag lobby is happy to condone (support) illegal immigration.
Doesn't matter what your opinion of the B/D model is or of the X-12 ARIMA method of seasonal adjustments. The point was, as I mentioned in the earlier ZH post, is that you can't simply subtract NSA figures from SA figures. That makes no sense, but that's exactly what ZH did, and I know they know better. The problem is they do this every single month. If you want to compare apples to apples, the NSA employment number was +1.169 million, or +994,000 ex-B/D adjustment. I have not personally run it through X-12 ARIMA so I can't tell you what SA figure that translates to.
You can try it yourself if you feel inclined though:
http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/
+994,000? Source?
All I found was this:
"Among the marginally attached, there were 989,000 discouraged workers in
April, a decline of 208,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not
seasonally adjusted.)"
Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Table B-1.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
Seasonally Adjusted (In Thousands):
March 2011: 130,784
April 2011: 131,028
Change from Mar.2011 - Apr.2011: +244
Not Seasonally Adjusted (In Thousands):
March 2011: 129,919
April 2011: 131,088
Change from Mar.2011 - Apr.2011: +1,169
or +994 if you exclude the +175 from the B/D adjustment.
Other tables from the release:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
You can also find that 1,169 NSA figure on page with the B/D adjustments:
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
I recall reading that in the USSR hospitals would exchange dead bodies between themselves so as not to exceed death quotas. Sort of like carbon credits today.
TTime for me to get outa here.
Eat uyour fucking IPAD Bitchezzzz and hang out at SBUX. All we hear is lies every fucking day. Did someone exhume Gerbel and out him in the waffle house?
Is it really that hard to track how many people have jobs on a monthly basis?
this isn't new! how does this differ from mulinationals' "earnings" ?
Me thinks Congress better drag these ingrates before them (along with that Rebel Meredith Whitney) to expalin what the Heck they mean by publishing The Truth.
u guys are funny. Volcano shrine. I must admit, I am down 15% since from my all time highs since this dump began. Sold my miners and bought more physical. I guess I will just keep buying the real stuff. Gold at 1,500 and miners selling at prices from years ago. The bastards are good, short term.
Got lots of dry powder. Lets just see how it goes. Been a great run but now the volatility is beyond comprehension. Anyone who day trades this market is either real good or nuts. lol.
You can usually swing trade the extreme with a contrarian position.
Then play the one major guaranteed bounceback with a day trade. After that its just gambling.
I dont speculate with options anymore. Not necessary.
Pick one or two markets you love and make those your spec playground. Dont try to follow too many markets.
Alternatively play one technical strategy in all markets, mean regression with sentiment extremes.
Three or four trades per year is plenty. Take losses quickly and move on. It doesnt take knowledge or nuttery. It takes the ability to cut your losses quickly and not get greedy.
Thanks, probably the best post of all the unrelated ones to this article.
Would love to see a voting system to hide all the irrelevant stuff.
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Over 4% and 26% on the Week
YouTube - Patsy Cline "Crazy"
slewie's fave patsy cline video: YouTube - Patsy Cline - Lovesick Blues
bocephus' daddy may have written it and made it popular (hank's got a version, here), but patsy owns it, now.
Nice table on Gold Seeker slewie, thanks.
Bonds, the USD, and the Yen all up with Oil and PM's down; wonder how long that will last?
Nice video clip too - puts most of that "young country" to shame.
But where's the DATA??
They are located on the Left Coast and are partnered with NYC merchants of financial oblivion. Expect adherence to the party line.
Sweetness... Riding the ZSL the last couple days!
"The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," – John Williams
“In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation.” >>>>>>>>>>
John Williams: Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead (An interview with Karen Roches of The Gold Report)
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig12/williams-j1.1.1.html
The XAU report? J.R. you are joking of course! You would never put your reputation on the line.
Sue Ellen had the same reaction.
On the other hand, it still is the most powerful nation on earth. I think that counts for something. Sort of an intangible asset.
Base rule in statistical analysis is the large the data set and the longer the time frame sampled yields more accurate results. With adequate capitalization from a insider institution as St Street they could actually be effective - if they can get the subscriber base. That said the mutual fund cocksuckers that fund CNBS 24/7 infomercial will not be a target group for this outfit..... cool that ZH spell check corrected coksukkers for me!
Larger time frame more accurate - exactly.
They are parsing the data to avoid big drops they know would show up, and blending with push/pull of monthly data and then revisions to jigger things.
Main: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
The revised quarterly (new as of January 2011) Birth/Death revisions and realeases explanation is here:
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ces_quarterly_birthdeath.pdf
One of their news items is Paul Krugman endorsement. I'll pass.
Again Tyler, your reaching new audiences.
Rush, if your reading this.. Keep educating your peers, Tyler is the real deal. I'll PM you from my MW account. :>)
"If the American people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system - there would be a revolution before morning..."
Nicholas Biddle 1836
I was listening to Rush Limbaugh today, as usual. Anyways he mentioned that he comes to Zero Hedge for economic data, including the spin the BLS puts out. He mentioned that Tyler Durden puts out some interesting articles. Did not mention if he was a registered user.
Wonder how many new people will come here for him mentioning the site? Millions listen to his broadcast.
Looks like many are about to go through "de-tox"
There will be pain, some will relapse.
thanks tick, i needed the laugh. funny part is you are correct 100%. i still feel though this damn "awakening" is going to happen. i open my mouth to everybody i have pleasure of meeting. the economy and the fraud is not only a great ice breaker, but it's a great way to plant seeds that germinate quickly with all the japanese radiation running around the globe.
not that i am a fan of RL, but God bless him if he awakens people even if he stays asleep.
i'm shaking some fairly big trees over here in my fraudclosure case. these people will learn that they it would be much better for them to just leave me alone. becoming toxic to these persons is an empowering thing.
silver bitchez !
BUY THIS FREAKIN DIP !
Gasp! Waddya mean Republicons won't/can't solve America's problems?? Zerohedge is unAmerican! :>D
Most of them would be react to this site much like they would to a kidney transplant without any administration of immunosuppressants.
just what in the hell were you thinking listening to rush...?
Been listening to him since before he went syndicated, when he was on a station out of Northern CA. Sometime in the late 80s. I'll keep listening to him, until he goes off the air.
Transcript: For oversea's members
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_050611/content/01125106.guest.html
Rothchilds could buy them for pocket change.
Accuracy & reality aren't new concepts, they just galvanize the Complex into restricting, discrediting, and marginalizing.
The collapse has already happened...there's just a long tape-delay preventing the masses from knowing so.
Poor John Williams is another guy who flat out gets it wrong.
If we go into another deep recession, the price of commodities will plummet and the USDX will soar.
We are in Great Depression II. If you read the history of the First Great Depression you'll find that people were ditching Dollars for Gold. This led FDR to attempt to confiscate Gold leading to a Gold Black Market. He only managed to get 1% of the peoples Gold, all of it coming from Bank Safe Deposit Boxes. History always repeats and you can see it repeating now because this manipulated PM pullback did nothing but produce a physical buying spree.
You must have an over/under going with number of junks or replies, because your posts are just getting sillier by the moment.
I guess it gets a little more challenging for you hired hands to prod folks when we're in a "corruption time-out" from the onslaught of the fundamentals.
Says the guy who's been wrong for a decade on his entire strategy.
You hold all the paper you want. Sell your physical silver, since it is so worthless. Stake paper to the ceiling. At least you'll have fuel for your funeral pyre.
my responses to your sentences;
1-yep
2-yep
3-yep, i'm buying this dip.
4-yep
5-yep.
Gold miners did extremely well during the great depression and that was with a fixed price.
The word inflation has become a tool of our economic enemies.
Printing trillions in unbacked paper money by an unauthorized central bank is literally inflation - relished by Keynesian central planners to regulate and plan our economy by using wealth redistribution. That’s why the Fed screams about a coming deflation and lies about prices - so it can continue the devaluation of the dollar unabated. Paper money leads to economic tyranny.
But, now, in walks PriceStats – to shine the spotlight on serious price inflation and reflect the results of a weak dollar and a weak economy.
The Fed deliberately uses its myriad definitions of inflation to steal from us, to take away our buying power by using fake inflation figures. Thus Bernanke and the other financial fraudsters go on to say that input costs such as gasoline are not affecting the economy and will only be temporary – as the nation heads into bankruptcy and economic and political chaos.
Now Americans will have PriceStats to confirm what their empty pockets have been telling them, that the cost of living and job losses are increasing as a natural consequence of the dollar’s debasement. To 95 percent of the population, the word inflation has to do with prices; and increased inflation means increased prices.
Bernanke with his low inflation stats reflecting an historical inflation rate of 1.63% for 2010 – is no longer believed. His statistics are as counterfeit as his bank notes, proving he is totally in the corner of big business; his use of the word inflation is a business definition, meaning only that labor costs are not going up for the big corporations.
The American public has to eat Bernanke’s inflation, and they’re getting killed. PriceStats means the people no longer have to depend on the government’s self-serving price indexes to measure the success of Bernanke’s managed fiat currency.
PriceStats is a step toward restoration of a sound economic system and sound money.
Partnering with State Street to provide alternative to BLS, real and honest CPI? The same State Street aka the "nth arm" of Uncle Sam? If you believe this will provide objective numbers, I have a bridge to sell to ZH
Hmmmm...
“What Does State Street Investor Confidence Index Mean?
"An index that measures investor confidence by looking at actual levels of risk taken by investors in their portfolios…. It was co-developed by Harvard professor Ken Froot and State Street associate director Paul O'Connell.”
Some more info from Froot’s Harvard Business School bio
Kenneth A. Froot is André R. Jakurski Professor of Business Administration at Harvard University's Graduate School of Business Administration. He teaches courses in Capital Markets, International Finance, and Risk Management. From 1995-2000 he served as Director of Research of HBS and from 1993-1999 he held the Industrial Bank of Japan Professorship in Finance. From 1991-1993 he held the Thomas Henry Carroll-Ford Foundation Visitor's Chair at Harvard, while on leave from MIT's Sloan School of Management. At MIT, he held the Ford International Development Chair. He has taught executive education programs at MIT, Harvard, Princeton, Dartmouth, and for many corporations and institutions in addition to his regular teaching of MBAs and Ph.D.s.
Professor Froot received his B.A. from Stanford University and his Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley. He spent the 1988-1989 academic year as an Olin Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, where he is Research Associate and Chair of the NBER’s Insurance Group. His research on a wide range of topics in finance, risk management, and international markets has been published in many journals and books. He is Editor of the Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, Associate Editor of the Journal of International Economics, and of The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, Foreign Direct Investment, and The Transition in Eastern Europe, Vols. 1 and 2. He is a member of the American Finance Association, the American Economics Association, and the Behavioral Finance Working Group, and served as a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Professor Froot is a founding partner of FDO Partners, LLC and State Street Associates, firms producing investment and knowledge resources for global investors. Froot has also been a consultant to many companies, countries, and official institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. He has worked with a number of financial intermediaries and other financial corporations on international financial, risk management and investment management issues. He serves on boards and policy review committees of several corporations and financial institutions. He has also acted as a Financial Adviser to the Prime Minister of the Republic of Slovenia and to the Finance Minister of Poland, and served on the staff of the US President's Council of Economic Advisers and the Economic Advisory Board of the Export-Import Bank of the US.
http://drfd.hbs.edu/fit/public/facultyInfo.do?facInfo=bio&facEmId=kfroot
Hmmmm.
Take a look @ the Baltic Dry! Yes we can look @ some wet index figures. China is a melting pot for Asian deflation.
This Cambridge company is acting stupidly, like that Cambridge cop. Must be something in the water.
I was recently laid-off from my job as an economist at LECG. As I looked to buy health insurance for my new business (through Costco), I noticed that the cost for my family of four, for a mediocre policy with $35 copays, $2500 deductible, and a 70% coverage costs right around $1,300 per month. Yeah, big deal. Everyone's rates are high.
But I broke the cost down on a per hour worked. It is $7.87/hour worked, assuming a 40 hour work week. When you think of the minimum wage being around $8.00/hour, it is easy to see why under Obama Care subsidies are necessary. Could you imagine that if they got rid of Medicare, how quickly the political situation would change? I mean elderly people vote. Something is going to break big time in the near future, and it is not just silver.
Exactly.
And in many parts of the country, $1,300 a month is completely untenable unless you want to sleep in your car and have health insurance.
"break big time"
Yes.
Our current societal meme is broken, yet we slumber.
Thats why it is hard for me to hire people.
Add a very basic retirement plan to that and you are adding another couple bucks per hour.
Unemployment and workers comp, especially workers comp, is getting out of control with all the fakers.
And the employer portion of social security. Suddenly your ten dollar per hour employee is costing you 21 and some change per hour.
Thats where everyones raises went.
One can sure learn to miss all the great commentary around the ONGOING Fukushima disaster. The reporting on this has just about dried up.
Here is Arnies latest:
http://vimeo.com/23393101