Projecting Social Security; Medicare; The Budget; Mandatory, Discretionary And Interest Outlays

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented without commentary, cause it's really all pretty self-explanatory. Compliments of Ned David Research.

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Pure Evil's picture

I like the way those baseline budget projections shoot straight for the moon.

Of course with all those FRN's collecting dust at the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, they have to be spent somewhere eventually. The didn't create them out of thin air for nothing.

Maybe if Ben Bernanke is able to reconstruct the Wiemar Republic in the US we can use all those FRN's for tinder instead of having to buy coal to provide heat in the winter.

Maybe to help brainwash the masses into accepting the coming commode flush of cash into the monetary system they should do a remake of the movie, Brewsters Millions, bypass the billions and rename it Brewsters Trillions.

The plot: A b-movie star has to waste $30trillion in 30 days in order to inherit $300trillion; however he's not allowed to tell anyone about the $300trillion deal.

MarketTruth's picture

Well DUH!!! Of course Medicare and So-So Security are classic PONZI schemes. Makes Madoff seem like a mere punter. Of course this is why the handlers of Obama had to have him push for the new healthcare bill.

BTW: When are the REFUND CHECKS going to given to those who have been forced into paying into medicare for many years yet are too young to receive any benefits? Or did the US Gov just commit the world's biggest robbery of the American people?

The saying goes something like this: The last act of a rogue government is to rob the country/citizens of their wealth.

three chord sloth's picture

The saying goes something like this: The last act of a rogue government is to rob the country/citizens of their wealth.


Rainman's picture

Speaking of the Grand Finale for a rogue government, here's a "Bennies Gone Wild" piece in today's Sacramento Bee. Woe to the residents of the People's Republik of Kalifornia . 

SayTabserb's picture

The easy solution is so obvious: Kaleeforneeya simply needs to end all government services, and fire all existing employees, and devote its entire budget to paying pensions. Reading that article, it's obvious a lot of cities and governments are already at the 100% shortfall point already - with pension obligations greater than their current operating budget.  Get on with it - former employees must be served!  It's the law.

Par Contre's picture

Good story, thanks for the link. Of course, it only says what any ZH reader already knows. Governments are bankrupt, and a tax revolt is inevitable.

MarketTruth's picture

Speaking of tax revolt:


April 15 to April 18TH
Tell Everyone You Know

DosZap's picture

Screw the Medicare refund, I want my Social Security Pay In.

RottingDollar's picture

Demographics dictate that after 2045 losses will moderate so not sure why the CBO doesn't reflect this fact.   Everyone knows baby boomer bubble causing many of the abnormalities.  Social Security is an easy fix, although health care is still a black box.  

BS Inc.'s picture

Easy to fucking say if it isn't your money flushed down the toilet supporting Baby Boomers you've never met and don't give a flying fuck about.

As the son of Baby Boomers, I don't have that luxury. I hope they all fucking drop dead, with the exception of my parents and relatives. They're cool, even though I have disagreements with them.

MrPalladium's picture

But the death of baby boomers is not the only ball in play in this demographic game.

The second ball in play is the metastasizing population of 80 IQ citizens (and non citizens) on permanent welfare. These are barely able to function in a service economy and can never generate enough productivity to pay for the education of their children, their medical care, and their retirement costs.

The potential for group conflict and collapse to a much lower order of complexity - a la Joseph Tainter - is compelling, especially as the competent flee the costs of supporting this hostile population.

A good time will be had by all!!

DosZap's picture

"Everyone knows baby boomer bubble causing many of the abnormalities"



Hey, Bro, these Mutherf*^*@*@'s had 60 yrs of PAYMENTS they stole, if the Congress could have left it in the FUND it was intended, and not used it in the General Fund, simply investing the monies in Treasuries, and Bonds, there would be TRILLIONS IN SURPLUS.

The Abnormalities are in a 10 mi square in D.C., how dare anyone blame the honest, for the sins of the thieves.

We prepare for our obligations, and we, pay them, should WE expect the VENERABLE United States Government to at least not be as honorable as Joe Six Pack?.

three chord sloth's picture

But... but ... this just can't be! All my life I've been told big government liberals are smarter... they are the long-term thinkers! All of these programs are "investing in people", and if we spend some money now, we'll get it all back in the future! The shiny, happy, prosperous future that only big government liberals can bring.

Assholes. Destroyers of great civilizations.

I'd love to see the charts for France, England, Germany, et al. Despite their lower military expenditures and far higher taxes, I bet they look just the same as these.

The Dark Ages won. Most of the world never left, and the West is most of the way back down.

Howard_Beale's picture

This has nothing to do with Liberal or Conservatives. Both are big government, no matter how you slice it.

three chord sloth's picture

Change that to Republican or Democrat and I'd agree. The trouble is too many Reps pretend to be conservative but aren't, and the public has no way to figure out who are really small gov't conservatives and who are old-fashioned 1950's style big government liberals passing as conservatives.

Our media sure as hell ain't gonna tell us the difference... they aren't smart or well-educated enough to tell the two apart. For a bunch of people who's job it is to observe the world and report, they are pretty damn clueless. The average reporter has the observational skills of a yam. You'd think they would've noticed by now that everything they believe in bloats, collapses, and dies... but you'd think wrong.

TexasAggie's picture

I forgot what organization did a study on SAT and GRE scores but generally persons majoring in education and journalism were the two lowest profiles on both the SAT and GRE.  in 2002, I was in Washington DC and a reporter for the Wash Compost ran a story about two planes from the same airline: on the 1st day, a plane from the west coast was diverted to IAD (Dulles) instead of NCA because the pilots entered the wrong transponder code, and on the next day, the airline had a plane taking off from runway 19 flew over the VP's house. Runway 19 is taking off at 190 degrees, almost due south and the VPs house is north of NCA.

TexasAggie's picture

I forgot what organization did a study on SAT and GRE scores but generally persons majoring in education and journalism were the two lowest profiles on both the SAT and GRE.  in 2002, I was in Washington DC and a reporter for the Wash Compost ran a story about two planes from the same airline: on the 1st day, a plane from the west coast was diverted to IAD (Dulles) instead of NCA because the pilots entered the wrong transponder code, and on the next day, the airline had a plane taking off from runway 19 flew over the VP's house. Runway 19 is taking off at 190 degrees, almost due south and the VPs house is north of NCA.

Winston Smith 2009's picture

Our entire political system is corrupt beyond redemption.  It doesn't matter one iota what one individual Congressperson may claim they will do once elected.  It's what their true owners will _allow_.  And those true owners aren't us, they're the deep pocket special interests who fund elections and attack ads.

And the mass media?  "News reporting" in most cases has become nothing more than entertainment.  The news organs of networks were once loss leaders due to their perception that the "public service" part of their FCC license mandate meant an informed public rather than an entertained one.  That is no longer the case.  They need to show a profit and you don't garner a large audience share by exposing a harsh reality.  And what news team would risk being continuously ignored at Prez press conferences by asking hard questions or have guests refuse to show up if they were grilled to the extent that they should be?

No, it's all just a bad farce of representative democracy, obvious to anyone who has even the slightest clue.

Rick Blaine's picture

Oh yeah...lookin' real good here...REALLY good.

This isn't going to end badly at all.

CitizenPete's picture

This will never happen.  The debt fairy will save us. 

Everyone close your eyes, now on three!... 1, 2, 3...

I Believe

I Believe

I Believe

Number 156's picture

I believe I will never see a dime of social security.


AR15AU's picture

Oh, you'll get your $1000 / mo...  the only problem is that $1000 will barely buy a bag of groceries by 2040.

jdrose1985's picture

The dollar sink to parity with the yen by 2040 hahaha

ZeroPower's picture

So what, the minimum wage would then be $100/hr

Cursive's picture

Now you have to begin wondering if you'll get to keep your 401(k) / IRA.

pan-the-ist's picture

Exactly.  If the banksters haven't found a way to steal it first.

Bruce Krasting's picture

The information presented in these graphs is not correct.

This link takes you to the SSTF web site and shows actual cash flow for OASDI for calendar 2009. The cash flow surplus was a lousy 3.4b.

The following is a link to the most recent (March 2010) CBO scoring of SS. They show a cash flow shortfall of $29b for 2010.


For what is worth, my own analysis shows that the 2010 cash flow deficit will be closer to $60billion.

The graphs show the SSTF defict coming in 2017 (a very old forecast).

This "party" started last year and is just getting going. By 2011 the deficit could reach $100b if the economy does not recover.

Don't trust the CBO to give you good info on this topic. Things are much worse than even they are telling you.

Hulk's picture

In 1967, the house ways and means commitee predicted that medicare would cost $12 billion in 1990. Actual cost:$110 billion ....

boooyaaaah's picture

In new Jersey the big problem is government worker's fat retirement benefits ---- a fix to the credit problem requires a fix government retirement

At GM the big problem is paying for the fat retirement programs

How come we never hear about the Federal government retirement programs?

How much present and future government spending is tied up in that. Might as well put all the cards on the table. Do federal workers pay into soso security. Or medicare.




three chord sloth's picture

I tell people this all the time.

Do you wanna see a semi-sustainable retirement program? Look at social security. You pay in enough to retire as a millionaire, but get back a check a half-step above the poverty line. Any retirement program that is more generous than SSI is gonna collapse as soon as it loses geometric growth in population/GDP... and every society/organization loses geometric growth eventually.

fuu's picture

My father did 35 years at the VA. He paid into SS and the Federal pension program. When he came ready to retire they told him to choose one of the other. Collecting both was considered a double dip.


I have nothing other that that anecdotal story though.

Astute Investor's picture

After reviewing these charts it's clear that Washington and Wall Street share the same management philosophy:

IBGYBG - I'll be gone.  You'll be gone.

perchprism's picture


Usually they'd be flung off the Tarpeian Rock just outside Capitoline Hill.  When the Vestal Virgin Tarpeia betrayed early Rome to the Sabines, her body was hurled from the rock which later bore her name.

 In a gesture to modern sensibilities, they should simply be pushed, handcuffed, into the Potomac.

Par Contre's picture

With all due respect, I think throwing them off the nearest overpass onto I-395 would be more efficient, and much more convenient.

Shameful's picture

What is the CBO smoking to get 6%+ for year to year growth in revenue?  Hell why not just pick 2-% year to year to make the number look good?

Either America is set for an epic growth or they plan on hitting us with epic taxes, and then maybe we can once and for all tell if we are behind or in front of the Laffer Curve.

TexasAggie's picture

Also, who gets to make the definition of mandatory and discretionary.  I know, SS and Medicare and interest and other welfare programs are mandatory.  They fixed it so they don't have to appropriate funds for these programs - get back to Congress every yr appropriating funds for both SS, medicare and the new HC instead of putting them on automatic. 

JW n FL's picture

Hot potato...


When the music stops?


Who's election year will it be when the real pain is felt?


and... the standard "it's the last guys fault I swear! I had no idea! I have been in Government service for the last 20 years but I didn't know!"


Enough of that... lets talk abortion!

TexasAggie's picture

These lifetime Congress persons - Biden - what about 40 yrs, Franks over 40, Chris Dodd, Charlie Rangel, etc all are multi-millionaires and yet they have only worked as Senators or Representatives. They now make about 167K (Biden as VP makes more), yet they have multiple homes, and lots of money. 

When people are elected to serve, they should list all assets (forgeting one is a capital offense) and if at the ned of any legislative session (2 yrs for Representatives, 6 yrs for Senators), their net worth has increased more that the cost of living, they are summarily executed.  If they are married or living with a bf (BF), that member of the household cannot benefit from the member's election.

We might have an ethical Congress for once.

Madcow's picture

I've come to the conclusion that bankers are paid to confuse and mislead the public (aka "exit strategy").

Once a corporations' finances become so bad and hopeless, they'll simply initiate a transaction - a merger, an acquisition, a debt re-structuring, etc.  This confuses the markets and makes it impossible to get a clear view of the future. 

Same thing with countries. Now that the balance sheets of sovereign nations are a complete mess, they've got to recommend a bunch of mergers and acquisitions.  That's the only way they can stay a couple steps a head of the law. 

Its like riding a snow-mobile over a thinly frozen pond, hoping the ice breaks behind you. what other choice do they have?

moneymutt's picture

so true, our parasites hide both in the private "free" market and in the govt, and they hide mostly by confusing us or by govt people say the market is the problem or business people say govt is the problem...truth is, fraud, lack of transparency, lame media hide the parasites in plain view. Notice how the parasites move from govt to business or vice versa without a blink but folks have partisan arguments over more or less govt control, more or less business "freedom". Truth is parasites work both to their advantage. Increase in govt controls warped to do opposite of what regular folks need, competitive, low-fraud, high transparency market, instead regulators advantage crony businesses. Govt agencies should with proper democratic controls would be provide competitive services in economic sectors that lend themselves monopolistic organization, instead they are bloated crony orgs. Limiting govt and allowing business more freedom via no financial oversight, no policing, SCOTUS rulings like Citizens United, Enron bookeeping gets us warped, fraud filled and thug/gang run markets where the lowest, least ethical org wins, only different from anarchic Juarez MX in sophistication and order of magnitude of money extracted. Parasites win no matter which meme takes hold and wins election.

ZimbabweBen1991's picture

We are America and history does not apply to us! The Gubermint will save us, Weimar Ben will come to the rescue. Obama or Palin will save America! Yeah!!!

glenlloyd's picture

The picture certainly aint it.

Burnbright's picture

Sadly even these graphs are a very Rosey comparison to reality.

bugs_'s picture

Ponzicare and Ponzicurity.