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Proof the Economy is Stalling
As a commercial pilot with 30 year’s experience, I can tell you that there is no more sickening feeling than hearing your stall warning alarm during a takeoff. That is exactly what I was hearing Friday morning when the Department of Labor announced that June nonfarm payrolls fell by 125,000.
The unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5%, and no doubt this will be the headline. The broader measurement of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, also dropped a smidge to 16.5%. But those accomplishments were achieved because 650,000 workers abandoned the labor force, shrinking the base.
The only bright spots were the 83,000 private sector jobs that were gained and the 15,000 in upward revisions in the April and May numbers.
There is no doubt momentum is fading, and that there is a downshift in private sector hiring underway. The BP oil spill is having an immeasurable effect, as thousands of oil workers, fishermen, and tourist industry staff were sent to the dole queue. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is at 4.7%, higher than in past recessions. Those now jobless face a long search.
At the current rate, it will take six years to recover the 8 million jobs that vanished during the Great Recession.
The most severe economic crisis in 80 years will generate similarly frightening pull backs in any recovery, and I think this is one of them. Maybe this is why there were no fireworks on the Fourth of July.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two and a half years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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Our leaders tell us everything is OK. What is wrong with you folks? /sarcasm off
I think we are in for a good bounce. my charting showed we hit the lower trend line on 7.1 don't forget we had end of quarter window dressing that can now be unwound. that provides instant cash from treasuries to stocks.
work force participation didn't drop, the BLS just pretends it dropped.Graduations tell us that a lot of people have been added to the workforce recently, not to mention seniors getting 1% on their CDs.
Relax, says James Altucher...LOL!
And ZHers will get a kick out of this:
Stall: high rate of sinK
Agree, stalling is not good news yet worse still is when a normal (commercial, non-military) aircraft goes into a flat spin and begins its decent at a faster rate...
Six years? Six years may prove optimistic unless the methodology mirrors that used by the Greeks and their Euroland associates to underpin the Greek application for and subsequent compliance with the stringent standards of Euroland membership.
Blatant manipulation all around.
All the hot action in India is hot money action. No basis for the BSES to be where it is.
It's been three-card Monte for quite some time now.
I suggest, don't go long, or short. Just go. Out.
Everyone in the market is battling ever greater manipulative, house favouring odds.
And while the big boys have a few centuries of experience at screwing the little people, little people have done the reverse-screw very poorly.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I always appreciate your analysis...
big turn around in asia today. Looks like it might be time to close out your shorts. Everyone very bearish at the moment, sentiment indicators look oversold, wouldnt take much to kick off another bear market rally from these levels. Close shorts and go long i reckon, short term bounce looks immanent.
Depends on how convincing the propaganda is going to be be to support the bounce. In 2009 there were improvements and there was positive growth outlook.
Now the outlook is worsening and no reprieve on the horizon.
The bears are getting more bearish and the bulls are crying because even they will have to accept the inevitable.
There's no money left and there's nobody left who wants to play the game.
Down we go.
We're gonna see a big pop today. I love it when the sky is falling!
So this means we should be buying...?
Are you a mad "crazy" trader, or a mad "pissed" trader?
It could have a bearing on your analysis!
heh :)
In the world according to Das the sell side waits until the phone is hung up to say "fuck you".
+100 haha thanks for the badly needed laugh
you did a good analysis on the head and shoulders pattern. but then told people to avoid bonds. you often give very conflicting advice so it is almost certain you can point to something you did correctly. My advice is to try and develop a 'whole" world view then support it with evidence and give consistent investing advice that fits that view. Often your apporach appears more designed to throw out investment advice and hope a few pan out.
So based on this new info with a slowing economy. assuming rogoff and rheinhardt (sp) are correct about growth after financial crisises what would be an appropriate level to re enter long?
That other 'contributor' Reggie Whatever does the same thing. Throws spaghetti on the wall, and charges money for it. LoL. People actually pay for that. LoL.