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Q1 GDP Prints At 1.8% Misses Consensus OF 2.0%, Plunges From 3.1% In Q4, Initial Claims Surge

Tyler Durden's picture


Key highlights:

  • US GDP Price Index (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • US PCE Core (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.4)
  • US Personal Consumption (Q1 A) Q/Q 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)

and the kicker:

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 23) W/W 429K vs. Exp. 395K (Prev. 403K)

Nobody could have predicted the economic devastation (even as inflation surges). Nobody. And certain not the wise oracles at the Federal Reserve. 


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Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:33 | 1215274 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

QE ∞

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:39 | 1215297 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Ben Lightyear is firing up HAL 9000.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:19 | 1215481 anti Oligarchy
anti Oligarchy's picture

CNBC BREAKING 8:31AM Economy Grew 1.8% in 1Q, In-Line with Estimates

Funny how a .2% miss is in-line while a .2% positive has a lot of words like exceeding, blowing out, etc

Good ole MSM

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:26 | 1215500 dcb
dcb's picture

I know put it in terms of percent and it is 10%, huge !!!! of course it never gets said that way!!!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:33 | 1215277 Deep
Deep's picture

Rally time

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:36 | 1215287 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Rally time indeed.

All aboard the $52 Express - we're taking out all the stops.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:36 | 1215293 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Locked limit up!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:46 | 1215324 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

AGQ, 2X levered silver ETF.

'nough said.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:53 | 1215354 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Thanks for shorting, paperboy.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:53 | 1215369 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Be it as it may, this things a beast.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:01 | 1215392 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

wow... just looked at its chart... imean, i obviously know about silver, but when u actually look at the same chart, 2x leveraged it gives you goosespoon.... 300% up in 3 months

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:09 | 1215430 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Yeah man, I BTFD on Tuesday.

Silver has nowhere to go but up.

This thing's going to Google prices of $600 when silver goes to 60 or 70.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:31 | 1215278 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Ha Ha!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215356 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Near record prices not slowing demand for silver, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) registers to sell an additional 50M shares, using the proceeds to buy more of the metal. As reference, there are currently 364M shares outstanding, so the offering increases the float by about 14%.

Where the fuck are they going to "buy more of the metal"?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:15 | 1215447 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

HP Inkjet, Silver Edition

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:10 | 1215433 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Indeed.  Now we're deficit-spending 12% of GDP and getting a measely 2% GDP boost for it?  What does that tell ya about the underlying economy?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:09 | 1215959 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Excellent rhetoric.  I mean that as a compliment.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:32 | 1215280 vincentmulleman
vincentmulleman's picture

Forecasting GDP is a form of mental treatment. It's a useless exercise and even meaningless when GDP is based upon debt creation

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:35 | 1215281 johny2
johny2's picture

What is the positive side of this?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:41 | 1215302 Law97
Law97's picture

Justification for more QE. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:45 | 1215321 johny2
johny2's picture

Ponzi on.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:59 | 1215386 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

priced in

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:35 | 1215283 oogs66
oogs66's picture


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:36 | 1215285 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

back to Sept, 2010.  good news is good and bad news means more money printing.


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:42 | 1215319 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

QE is only making it worse, as some in the Fed realize.  GDP decline probably driven by rising cost of oil imports, plus rising price deflator.   Businesses worried about margin pressure reluctant to hire, hurting jobs.

Money printing leading to stagflation - it's not about the volume of money you inject in the economy, it's the transmission mechanism that counts....

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:55 | 1215378 Chumbadumba
Chumbadumba's picture

There is more money, but fewer people have it! Shitflation!


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:36 | 1215286 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Somebody please remove this country from the map. An ugly blight containing a concerntration of all the worst aspects of humanity.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:41 | 1215317 CH1
CH1's picture

No. The government and its central banker co-tyrants suck, but the people here (at least when they're awake) are mainly decent.

Make the distinction!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:47 | 1215328 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

True to a certain extent, but, the government and central bankers can only exist while the docile, apathic, acquiescent people allow it to...

... therefore the the peoples are just as bad as the government/central banking system they allow to exist.

Land of the free, home of the brave, most certainly not. I've got more respect for the Egyptions and Icelandics.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:56 | 1215651 Chump
Chump's picture

No one gives even half a shit who you have respect for.

Tell us, what the fuck are YOU doing about any of the garbage you bemoan?  Oh, that's right, typing a comment on a website.  Good job kid.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:52 | 1215348 johny2
johny2's picture

I really think funkyboy is just trolling. He means to offend, and provoke.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1215495 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I agree with him.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:30 | 1215455 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Be careful the distinction you make! I was blogging during the lead-up to the Gulf War, I met nothing but Pigs online, banging the drum of war.

The only thing that's changed is which head the gun is pointed at....funny how most people become nicer, when forced to look in the mirror.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:36 | 1215292 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Excellent news, I manufacture Printing Presses.....

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:55 | 1215877 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Can they print dollars on a two-ply perforated roll?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215295 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Bernanke, in his first or second question, said he expected Q1 GDP to come in less than 2%. Set expectation lower. No real surprises here.  Economy ex ongoing Fed stimulus still in the crapper.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:39 | 1215298 shushup
shushup's picture

Buy the dip. Bad news is meaningless to the markets. Sucks that the markets don't reflect reality. Common sense is also meaningless to trading.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:40 | 1215299 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

welcome to a new World... THe most bearish news will actually make


Oil Rallies as dxy plunge

Shares rally as dxy plunge

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:39 | 1215307 oogs66
oogs66's picture

and then european stocks rally because the us market is rallying, then the u.s. rallies more because if european stocks are rallying there is no problem with the PIGS...etc

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:40 | 1215300 The Axe
The Axe's picture

No stats matter....dollar down...everything up..

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:39 | 1215303 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

Brilliant analysis, and great coverage/

Compare it to the trash bobble head talking suits on CNBC talking up underwear sales as an indicator for great times to come.


Lord - the Federal media is insane lunacy, deprived of oxygen, and drooling over the goat turds tossed to them.


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:50 | 1215341 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Exactly! WTF are these idiots smoking?  I'd like some... excerpts from CNBC, or as known in these parts, CNBS

But the pull back in output, which was also the result of harsh winter weather, a widening trade gap as well as weak government spending, will probably be fleeting given a firming labor market.

"We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics before the report was released.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:51 | 1215355 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Give me a friggin' break.  Higher oil import prices driving higher import $ volumes???? Hello?? Hello?  Anybody home!  Jeezum crow...

A widening trade deficit weighs on GDP growth because it shows more U.S. demand being sated by overseas production.

Nevertheless, strong import growth has been seen as a sign of underlying strength in domestic demand.


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:16 | 1215448 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Blindsided by higher gasoline prices? Are they watching the dollar at all?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:22 | 1216043 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The dollar hasn't moved anything at all like gas prices.  Dollar 1.27 euros to 1.48 euros.  Big deal. 15%.

Oil $70 to $113.  That's 60%.

Watching the dollar teaches them nothing.  Watching geology . . . that's another matter.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:31 | 1216482 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

OPEC is pissed about the debasement of the dollar, that's why they aren't even pretending to expand production (f.e. Venezuela).  Peak oil is out there, but so is the dollar debasement.  They're two sharks in a feeding frenzy, you can't ignore one or the other.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:41 | 1215304 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

What dip?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:42 | 1215308 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Thank goodness for that libya invasion will be huge boost for Q2 GDP! Didnt Bernanke say yesterday defense spending would be light?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:43 | 1215310 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

after years of tarp and QE this is what we get a 1.8 GDP??? stagnant UE..the fed is looking like the walking dead.."somebody has got to go to Jail!" per National bet

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:43 | 1215313 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

QE v3.1 by Q4 is a mortal lock now....

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:42 | 1215314 Racer
Racer's picture

Genocidal ChairSatan mentioned about stocks going up in his speech yesterday

The impression I get from that is that he has admitted in so many words that stocks are WAY overvalued because they have been manipulated by the Fed to artificially high levels because if it weren't for the props then stocks would be where they should be... a LOT lower.

It scared me and made me wanted to sell my shares, then realised I don't need to worry because I haven't got any any longer... phew...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:46 | 1215316 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Whoops.  I think it will be tough for TBTF to crash metals with


The economy has just officially gone from bad to worse.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:47 | 1215326 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Dow Futures only down 25 right now.  F'in amazing.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:51 | 1215329 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

My fault.  I'm wrong.  Everything is OK.  This is all because of weather. 

False alarm.  Sorry for any inconvenience.  Nothing to see here.

(Now we know why Bernank sounded like he'd seen a ghost yesterday.)


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:57 | 1215376 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

...and Japan....and evil speculators.....and the royal wedding

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:46 | 1215334 Racer
Racer's picture

After all that money stolen from the poor and pensioners and thrown at the Bankster Leeches and years later this is what the economy is like?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:51 | 1215359 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Banksters peeved that the hoi polloi aren't partying! It brings them down because it measn they have to be more discreet about conspicuous consumption. My super rich friends simlpy take the party overseas: private cruises for 150 guests on the Mediterranean etccc

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:49 | 1215337 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Thank goodness for that $844 BILLION stimuli!!!!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:58 | 1215384 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

German reunification costed 1.3 trillion Euros (of course it was Deutsche Mark back then) - that's the money we used to rebuild the Eastern part of our country...just to give you an idea...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:49 | 1215342 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Your daily Biflationary News Report:

Core PCE UP....Food Energy UP.....but consumer spending slowed while inventories rose (demand DOWN despite prices UP), exports slowed. 

The biggest dent to GDP: Government spending dropped. Could it be that the economy is stimulus dependent?? 

Lotsa Luck!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:50 | 1215344 koaj
koaj's picture

how soon until the tornados are blamed for unemployment spikes?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:50 | 1215352 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

for those that missed it Rosie went Bullish yesterday

Market Musings & Data Deciphering
Breakfast with Dave: Market & Data Musings

April 27, 2011

In this issue

• While you were sleeping: European stock markets up across the board for the fifth day in a row; mixed action in Asia; action within debt market shows very little in the way of fear

• BB bonds still in the sweet spot

• Summing it all up … On a very near-term basis, and despite my long-standing macro concern list, which has not gone away, it does look like the market is set to rise further

• Confidence comes roaring back! Not. The Conference Board’s version of consumer confidence was a really mixed bag

• U.S. home prices still deflating: Housing starts and sales may well have bottomed out, but there is still a massive supply glut that will continue to exert downward pressure on home prices through the balance of the year and well into 2012

• Richmond Fed Index -- for the Dickens: The Richmond Fed services index was absolutely red-hot in April, but the once-hot manufacturing survey, like its Philly and Dallas counterparts, showed some sputtering signs

• UPS and downs: The UPS results yesterday gave us quite a bit of information



Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215360 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Unfortunately, that's not the full report.  That's just from the email preview you copied and pasted.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:08 | 1215417 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

I thought of copying the full report but space and copyright would not permit, however for the disciples/deniers of Rosie this is a clear sign of a market top

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:51 | 1215357 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

1.8% and Bernanke spent how much this qtr?



Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:07 | 1215423 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Thats really it.  Failure is no longer PC.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:52 | 1215363 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Wait, what was that? I think i heard Obama blaming Bush.....

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:55 | 1215366 zen0
zen0's picture

Let us all remember these are the fake numbers. More fake numbers to follow on revision.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:58 | 1215395 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Exactly.  You know it's actually worse.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:07 | 1215421 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

No, not necessarily fake per say, penciled in based on models would be more accurate.  Penciled in and to be revised when the actual data is available.  And if the actual data does not comport with the desired outcome, then fake it.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:53 | 1215367 Chumbadumba
Chumbadumba's picture



Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215370 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Govr. spending declining by 7.9% is NOT transitory.

Inventories contributed almost a full percentage point. Absent that print would have been sub 1%.

Wasn't it a short 4 months ago that Goldman was wetting themselves over the coming 4% Q1 GDP print. One wonders what kind of bonus you get for being more than 50% wrong?

Looks like Geithner better re-welcome the US to the recovery. This time with both fists.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:59 | 1215398 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Yes, local governments in the US are firing many people right now. Teachers, policemen, firefighter - you name it.

And these jobs won't come back.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215374 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Have no fear, LIESMAN has decided to eat enough to make up for the lost purchasing power of the newly unemployed

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:56 | 1215377 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Great job, Bernanke, you dumb  motherf*cker. Keep killing the dollar and Americans' purchasing power so that they have to pay more for the essentials of life during one of the most profound periods of economic weakness in American History.


04-28 08:39: Q1 GDP report showed that ex-inventories, US economy grew 0.8% which is slowest since Q3 2009
Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:00 | 1215387 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I want my GLD!!! (Catch Phrase of the 2011s) 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:58 | 1215388 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

"We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics before the report was released.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:03 | 1215400 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yeah, that's it, Ryan Sweet, ya dumb motherf*cker.

You should be working at the Fed, asswipe.

All the economic woes are attributable to the rise in gasoline prices late in this quarter.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:04 | 1215418 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Don't forget rain and wind.  I was planning on buying 47 flat screen TVs today, but since it's there's a light sprinkle outside, I will delay my purchase.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:13 | 1215440 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

. . . and you certainly wouldn't buy raincoats or umbrellas.  If you're like me, airborne water is a sign from the gods that they're angry, and I hide in my basement until it passes.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:01 | 1215403 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Pushing on a string, liquidity trap, etc; once commonly stated phrases when they were but a looming threat.  Now that it has become a reality- crickets.



Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:05 | 1215425 nantucket
nantucket's picture

with all the estimates of what QE did for the economy, why doesn't the bernank use his vast intellectual power (pure snark) to estimate what the economy would be without any QE.  Probably would have been a deeper trough but a better (and more "real") recovery.  Instead, we're handed a sh!t sandwich and forced to take a mongo bite.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:10 | 1215431 earnulf
earnulf's picture

And this is why the government figures are not to be relied upon.   While 1Q GDP increased 1.8%, the Current Dollar GDP rose by, get this, 3.7% to 15.006 Trillion dollars!!  WhooHoo!    That means the GDP measured by those CBO boys for 2011 will be surpassed without a problem by September 30th!


If GDP only rose 3.1% in Q4 and 1.8% in Q1, how can the Current Dollar GDP rise by 3.5% in Q4 and 3.7% in Q1?    Plus they plan on making "revisions" in the GDP all the way back to 2008 to be released this summer?   WTF is this, the final installment of Benny Potter and the Deathly Dollars?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:20 | 1215444 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Well, The Bernank plans on doubling the amount of dollars it takes to purchase anything, so that a 25% drop in consumption during the looming depression will still allow for a 25% increase in nominal GDP.

And that's how the uber-intellectual that is The Bernank will dig us out of our hole.

When Paul Krugman heard that prices were rising, he emailed The Bernank and advised him to print additional USD to ensure there'd be enough to offset the rise in prices.

*The Bernank, aka Dumb Motherf*cker, aka ShitForBrains, aka Shakey McShakester LipTwitch.

*The Paul Krugman, aka Keynesian FailBoat, aka WeCanBeWeimar2, aka IheartFiat.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:18 | 1215457 dcb
dcb's picture

the solution is more QE, make the vast majority poorer, don't give them interest on their savings, and transfer wealth to the wealthy.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:00 | 1215658 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - A Einstein.

Banana Bernanke is an insane,egotistical Machiavellian, hell bent on proving Einstein wrong and your paying to see the show. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:23 | 1215487 r101958
r101958's picture

<sarcasm on>Hey, wait!!! MickyD's hired 49k workers....that should count for something! <sarcasm off>

The economy has been in the schmidt hole since late 2007. The rest of this noise has been a manufactured 'recovery'. Meant to create positive perceptions for those with no critical thinking abilities.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:29 | 1215516 clones2
clones2's picture

"The market will stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Seems to fit pretty well these days.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:29 | 1215777 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

as i have stated often in the past, however politically motivated are the initial announcements of these synthetic numbers, they are all statistically correct.....error on gdp is +/- 3.5% as i if the battle is 1.8 vs 3.1 then there is no valid complaint about accuracy other than to say that there is an upward bias in the numbers....but that is not the same as saying that the numbers are wrong....

gdp is the wrong number to focus on any way....there is no such thing as a convenient fraud with which some folks comfort themselves and is so plastic that it is usually fanstastic...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:54 | 1215853 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So, you're saying that official GDP stats are about as revealing as official CPI stats?

I agree. Because CPI is used as the input to the GDP Deflator, which distorts the official GDP numbers terribly (given how unreliable and unrealistic CPI is as a metric of inflation).

I would add that the notion (pun, maybe - notional) that to the extent that GDP is growing at all is attributable to some fairly sizeable increases in the cost of relatively inflexible goods and services that are 'volatile' and not incorporated fully or at all into official CPI is a serious one.

Let's just use one simple but revealing example:  A driver who fills their tank up once a week is now paying about $64 per week (16 gallons x $4), or $3,328 on an annual basis. But as of January 2009, that same driver was paying roughly $1,700 on an annual basis for gasoline.

To the extent that gasoline purchases are tracked and plugged into the algorithm that spits out the GDP, GDP is falsely reporting a doubling of output. The same is true of any good/service that has risen in price.

That driver isn't more productive or spending twice as much. They're simply paying more Bernanke Bucks to get to work/school/wherever.

But the CPI discounts gasoline prices (and many other "too volatile" goods). So the GDP Deflator is simply not doing it's job because it relies on official CPI in spitting out official GDP.

The Importance Of Inflation And GDP
Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:44 | 1215836 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

This is a dysfunctional recovery with a giant umbilical cord tied to the Fed. It is nothing close to being self sustaining. Pull the cord and KAPOOOW!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:00 | 1215917 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

GDP is a joke measure of economic growth and an excuse for Keynesian maggots and corrupted policymakers to carry on with policy that is no better than enslaving generations of unsuspecting serfs.

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