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Q1 GDP Prints At 1.8% Misses Consensus OF 2.0%, Plunges From 3.1% In Q4, Initial Claims Surge
Key highlights:
- US GDP Price Index (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
- US PCE Core (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.4)
- US Personal Consumption (Q1 A) Q/Q 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
and the kicker:
- US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 23) W/W 429K vs. Exp. 395K (Prev. 403K)
Nobody could have predicted the economic devastation (even as inflation surges). Nobody. And certain not the wise oracles at the Federal Reserve.
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QE ∞
Ben Lightyear is firing up HAL 9000.
CNBC BREAKING 8:31AM Economy Grew 1.8% in 1Q, In-Line with Estimates
Funny how a .2% miss is in-line while a .2% positive has a lot of words like exceeding, blowing out, etc
Good ole MSM
I know put it in terms of percent and it is 10%, huge !!!! of course it never gets said that way!!!
Rally time
Rally time indeed.
All aboard the $52 Express - we're taking out all the stops.
Locked limit up!
AGQ, 2X levered silver ETF.
'nough said.
Thanks for shorting, paperboy.
Be it as it may, this things a beast.
wow... just looked at its chart... imean, i obviously know about silver, but when u actually look at the same chart, 2x leveraged it gives you goosespoon.... 300% up in 3 months
Yeah man, I BTFD on Tuesday.
Silver has nowhere to go but up.
This thing's going to Google prices of $600 when silver goes to 60 or 70.
Ha Ha!
Where the fuck are they going to "buy more of the metal"?
HP Inkjet, Silver Edition
Indeed. Now we're deficit-spending 12% of GDP and getting a measely 2% GDP boost for it? What does that tell ya about the underlying economy?
Excellent rhetoric. I mean that as a compliment.
Forecasting GDP is a form of mental treatment. It's a useless exercise and even meaningless when GDP is based upon debt creation
What is the positive side of this?
Justification for more QE.
Ponzi on.
priced in
TRANSITORY
back to Sept, 2010. good news is good and bad news means more money printing.
QE is only making it worse, as some in the Fed realize. GDP decline probably driven by rising cost of oil imports, plus rising price deflator. Businesses worried about margin pressure reluctant to hire, hurting jobs.
Money printing leading to stagflation - it's not about the volume of money you inject in the economy, it's the transmission mechanism that counts....
There is more money, but fewer people have it! Shitflation!
Lololol! I AM CHUMBADUMBA! LOLOLOL!!
Somebody please remove this country from the map. An ugly blight containing a concerntration of all the worst aspects of humanity.
No. The government and its central banker co-tyrants suck, but the people here (at least when they're awake) are mainly decent.
Make the distinction!
True to a certain extent, but, the government and central bankers can only exist while the docile, apathic, acquiescent people allow it to...
... therefore the the peoples are just as bad as the government/central banking system they allow to exist.
Land of the free, home of the brave, most certainly not. I've got more respect for the Egyptions and Icelandics.
No one gives even half a shit who you have respect for.
Tell us, what the fuck are YOU doing about any of the garbage you bemoan? Oh, that's right, typing a comment on a website. Good job kid.
I really think funkyboy is just trolling. He means to offend, and provoke.
I agree with him.
Be careful the distinction you make! I was blogging during the lead-up to the Gulf War, I met nothing but Pigs online, banging the drum of war.
The only thing that's changed is which head the gun is pointed at....funny how most people become nicer, when forced to look in the mirror.
More of the same.
http://www.truckinginfo.com/news/news-detail.asp?news_id=73608&news_category_id=6
Excellent news, I manufacture Printing Presses.....
Can they print dollars on a two-ply perforated roll?
Bernanke, in his first or second question, said he expected Q1 GDP to come in less than 2%. Set expectation lower. No real surprises here. Economy ex ongoing Fed stimulus still in the crapper.
Buy the dip. Bad news is meaningless to the markets. Sucks that the markets don't reflect reality. Common sense is also meaningless to trading.
welcome to a new World... THe most bearish news will actually make
Oil Rallies as dxy plunge
Shares rally as dxy plunge
and then european stocks rally because the us market is rallying, then the u.s. rallies more because if european stocks are rallying there is no problem with the PIGS...etc
No stats matter....dollar down...everything up..
Brilliant analysis, and great coverage/
Compare it to the trash bobble head talking suits on CNBC talking up underwear sales as an indicator for great times to come.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703252?__source=otbrn%7Coutbrainext%7C&par=otbrn&__source=otbrn%7Coutbrainext20110428083703%7C&par=otbrn
Lord - the Federal media is insane lunacy, deprived of oxygen, and drooling over the goat turds tossed to them.
Exactly! WTF are these idiots smoking? I'd like some... excerpts from CNBC, or as known in these parts, CNBS
But the pull back in output, which was also the result of harsh winter weather, a widening trade gap as well as weak government spending, will probably be fleeting given a firming labor market.
"We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics before the report was released.
Give me a friggin' break. Higher oil import prices driving higher import $ volumes???? Hello?? Hello? Anybody home! Jeezum crow...
A widening trade deficit weighs on GDP growth because it shows more U.S. demand being sated by overseas production.
Nevertheless, strong import growth has been seen as a sign of underlying strength in domestic demand.
Blindsided by higher gasoline prices? Are they watching the dollar at all?
The dollar hasn't moved anything at all like gas prices. Dollar 1.27 euros to 1.48 euros. Big deal. 15%.
Oil $70 to $113. That's 60%.
Watching the dollar teaches them nothing. Watching geology . . . that's another matter.
OPEC is pissed about the debasement of the dollar, that's why they aren't even pretending to expand production (f.e. Venezuela). Peak oil is out there, but so is the dollar debasement. They're two sharks in a feeding frenzy, you can't ignore one or the other.
What dip?
Thank goodness for that libya invasion will be huge boost for Q2 GDP! Didnt Bernanke say yesterday defense spending would be light?
after years of tarp and QE this is what we get a 1.8 GDP??? stagnant UE..the fed is looking like the walking dead.."somebody has got to go to Jail!" per National Treasure..you bet
QE v3.1 by Q4 is a mortal lock now....
Genocidal ChairSatan mentioned about stocks going up in his speech yesterday
The impression I get from that is that he has admitted in so many words that stocks are WAY overvalued because they have been manipulated by the Fed to artificially high levels because if it weren't for the props then stocks would be where they should be... a LOT lower.
It scared me and made me wanted to sell my shares, then realised I don't need to worry because I haven't got any any longer... phew...
Whoops. I think it will be tough for TBTF to crash metals with
THE WHOLE REST OF THEIR BALANCE SHEET FALLING APART.
The economy has just officially gone from bad to worse.
Dow Futures only down 25 right now. F'in amazing.
My fault. I'm wrong. Everything is OK. This is all because of weather.
False alarm. Sorry for any inconvenience. Nothing to see here.
(Now we know why Bernank sounded like he'd seen a ghost yesterday.)
...and Japan....and evil speculators.....and the royal wedding
After all that money stolen from the poor and pensioners and thrown at the Bankster Leeches and years later this is what the economy is like?
Banksters peeved that the hoi polloi aren't partying! It brings them down because it measn they have to be more discreet about conspicuous consumption. My super rich friends simlpy take the party overseas: private cruises for 150 guests on the Mediterranean etccc
Thank goodness for that $844 BILLION stimuli!!!!
German reunification costed 1.3 trillion Euros (of course it was Deutsche Mark back then) - that's the money we used to rebuild the Eastern part of our country...just to give you an idea...
Your daily Biflationary News Report:
Core PCE UP....Food Energy UP.....but consumer spending slowed while inventories rose (demand DOWN despite prices UP), exports slowed.
The biggest dent to GDP: Government spending dropped. Could it be that the economy is stimulus dependent??
Lotsa Luck!
how soon until the tornados are blamed for unemployment spikes?
for those that missed it Rosie went Bullish yesterday
Unfortunately, that's not the full report. That's just from the email preview you copied and pasted.
I thought of copying the full report but space and copyright would not permit, however for the disciples/deniers of Rosie this is a clear sign of a market top
1.8% and Bernanke spent how much this qtr?
FAIL
Thats really it. Failure is no longer PC.
Wait, what was that? I think i heard Obama blaming Bush.....
Let us all remember these are the fake numbers. More fake numbers to follow on revision.
Exactly. You know it's actually worse.
No, not necessarily fake per say, penciled in based on models would be more accurate. Penciled in and to be revised when the actual data is available. And if the actual data does not comport with the desired outcome, then fake it.
WELCOME TO THE UNITED STATES OF DUHMERICA!!
GOLD AND SILVER BITCHES!!
LOLOLOL!! I AM CHUMBADUMBA! LOLOLOL!!
Govr. spending declining by 7.9% is NOT transitory.
Inventories contributed almost a full percentage point. Absent that print would have been sub 1%.
Wasn't it a short 4 months ago that Goldman was wetting themselves over the coming 4% Q1 GDP print. One wonders what kind of bonus you get for being more than 50% wrong?
Looks like Geithner better re-welcome the US to the recovery. This time with both fists.
Yes, local governments in the US are firing many people right now. Teachers, policemen, firefighter - you name it.
And these jobs won't come back.
Have no fear, LIESMAN has decided to eat enough to make up for the lost purchasing power of the newly unemployed
Great job, Bernanke, you dumb motherf*cker. Keep killing the dollar and Americans' purchasing power so that they have to pay more for the essentials of life during one of the most profound periods of economic weakness in American History.
WTF.
04-28 08:39: Q1 GDP report showed that ex-inventories, US economy grew 0.8% which is slowest since Q3 2009I want my GLD!!! (Catch Phrase of the 2011s)
"We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics before the report was released.
Yeah, that's it, Ryan Sweet, ya dumb motherf*cker.
You should be working at the Fed, asswipe.
All the economic woes are attributable to the rise in gasoline prices late in this quarter.
Don't forget rain and wind. I was planning on buying 47 flat screen TVs today, but since it's there's a light sprinkle outside, I will delay my purchase.
. . . and you certainly wouldn't buy raincoats or umbrellas. If you're like me, airborne water is a sign from the gods that they're angry, and I hide in my basement until it passes.
Pushing on a string, liquidity trap, etc; once commonly stated phrases when they were but a looming threat. Now that it has become a reality- crickets.
with all the estimates of what QE did for the economy, why doesn't the bernank use his vast intellectual power (pure snark) to estimate what the economy would be without any QE. Probably would have been a deeper trough but a better (and more "real") recovery. Instead, we're handed a sh!t sandwich and forced to take a mongo bite.
And this is why the government figures are not to be relied upon. While 1Q GDP increased 1.8%, the Current Dollar GDP rose by, get this, 3.7% to 15.006 Trillion dollars!! WhooHoo! That means the GDP measured by those CBO boys for 2011 will be surpassed without a problem by September 30th!
Bullshit.
If GDP only rose 3.1% in Q4 and 1.8% in Q1, how can the Current Dollar GDP rise by 3.5% in Q4 and 3.7% in Q1? Plus they plan on making "revisions" in the GDP all the way back to 2008 to be released this summer? WTF is this, the final installment of Benny Potter and the Deathly Dollars?
Well, The Bernank plans on doubling the amount of dollars it takes to purchase anything, so that a 25% drop in consumption during the looming depression will still allow for a 25% increase in nominal GDP.
And that's how the uber-intellectual that is The Bernank will dig us out of our hole.
When Paul Krugman heard that prices were rising, he emailed The Bernank and advised him to print additional USD to ensure there'd be enough to offset the rise in prices.
*The Bernank, aka Dumb Motherf*cker, aka ShitForBrains, aka Shakey McShakester LipTwitch.
*The Paul Krugman, aka Keynesian FailBoat, aka WeCanBeWeimar2, aka IheartFiat.
the solution is more QE, make the vast majority poorer, don't give them interest on their savings, and transfer wealth to the wealthy.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - A Einstein.
Banana Bernanke is an insane,egotistical Machiavellian, hell bent on proving Einstein wrong and your paying to see the show.
month end trading move is over: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/month-end-trading-already-happened-for-april
<sarcasm on>Hey, wait!!! MickyD's hired 49k workers....that should count for something! <sarcasm off>
The economy has been in the schmidt hole since late 2007. The rest of this noise has been a manufactured 'recovery'. Meant to create positive perceptions for those with no critical thinking abilities.
"The market will stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Seems to fit pretty well these days.
as i have stated often in the past, however politically motivated are the initial announcements of these synthetic numbers, they are all statistically correct.....error on gdp is +/- 3.5% as i recall....so if the battle is 1.8 vs 3.1 then there is no valid complaint about accuracy other than to say that there is an upward bias in the numbers....but that is not the same as saying that the numbers are wrong....
gdp is the wrong number to focus on any way....there is no such thing as gdp....it a convenient fraud with which some folks comfort themselves and is so plastic that it is usually fanstastic...
So, you're saying that official GDP stats are about as revealing as official CPI stats?
I agree. Because CPI is used as the input to the GDP Deflator, which distorts the official GDP numbers terribly (given how unreliable and unrealistic CPI is as a metric of inflation).
I would add that the notion (pun, maybe - notional) that to the extent that GDP is growing at all is attributable to some fairly sizeable increases in the cost of relatively inflexible goods and services that are 'volatile' and not incorporated fully or at all into official CPI is a serious one.
Let's just use one simple but revealing example: A driver who fills their tank up once a week is now paying about $64 per week (16 gallons x $4), or $3,328 on an annual basis. But as of January 2009, that same driver was paying roughly $1,700 on an annual basis for gasoline.
To the extent that gasoline purchases are tracked and plugged into the algorithm that spits out the GDP, GDP is falsely reporting a doubling of output. The same is true of any good/service that has risen in price.
That driver isn't more productive or spending twice as much. They're simply paying more Bernanke Bucks to get to work/school/wherever.
But the CPI discounts gasoline prices (and many other "too volatile" goods). So the GDP Deflator is simply not doing it's job because it relies on official CPI in spitting out official GDP.
The Importance Of Inflation And GDPThis is a dysfunctional recovery with a giant umbilical cord tied to the Fed. It is nothing close to being self sustaining. Pull the cord and KAPOOOW!
GDP is a joke measure of economic growth and an excuse for Keynesian maggots and corrupted policymakers to carry on with policy that is no better than enslaving generations of unsuspecting serfs.