Q1 GDP Prints At 1.8% Misses Consensus OF 2.0%, Plunges From 3.1% In Q4, Initial Claims Surge

Tyler Durden's picture

Key highlights:

  • US GDP Price Index (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • US PCE Core (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.4)
  • US Personal Consumption (Q1 A) Q/Q 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)

and the kicker:

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 23) W/W 429K vs. Exp. 395K (Prev. 403K)

Nobody could have predicted the economic devastation (even as inflation surges). Nobody. And certain not the wise oracles at the Federal Reserve. 

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DonnieD's picture

Ben Lightyear is firing up HAL 9000.

anti Oligarchy's picture

CNBC BREAKING 8:31AM Economy Grew 1.8% in 1Q, In-Line with Estimates

Funny how a .2% miss is in-line while a .2% positive has a lot of words like exceeding, blowing out, etc

Good ole MSM

dcb's picture

I know put it in terms of percent and it is 10%, huge !!!! of course it never gets said that way!!!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Rally time indeed.

All aboard the $52 Express - we're taking out all the stops.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

AGQ, 2X levered silver ETF.

'nough said.

LeBalance's picture

Thanks for shorting, paperboy.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Be it as it may, this things a beast.

mspgrandi's picture

wow... just looked at its chart... imean, i obviously know about silver, but when u actually look at the same chart, 2x leveraged it gives you goosespoon.... 300% up in 3 months

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Yeah man, I BTFD on Tuesday.

Silver has nowhere to go but up.

This thing's going to Google prices of $600 when silver goes to 60 or 70.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Near record prices not slowing demand for silver, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) registers to sell an additional 50M shares, using the proceeds to buy more of the metal. As reference, there are currently 364M shares outstanding, so the offering increases the float by about 14%.

Where the fuck are they going to "buy more of the metal"?

SWRichmond's picture

Indeed.  Now we're deficit-spending 12% of GDP and getting a measely 2% GDP boost for it?  What does that tell ya about the underlying economy?

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Excellent rhetoric.  I mean that as a compliment.

vincentmulleman's picture

Forecasting GDP is a form of mental treatment. It's a useless exercise and even meaningless when GDP is based upon debt creation

johny2's picture

What is the positive side of this?

oogs66's picture


101 years and counting's picture

back to Sept, 2010.  good news is good and bad news means more money printing.


A Man without Qualities's picture

QE is only making it worse, as some in the Fed realize.  GDP decline probably driven by rising cost of oil imports, plus rising price deflator.   Businesses worried about margin pressure reluctant to hire, hurting jobs.

Money printing leading to stagflation - it's not about the volume of money you inject in the economy, it's the transmission mechanism that counts....

Chumbadumba's picture

There is more money, but fewer people have it! Shitflation!


FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Somebody please remove this country from the map. An ugly blight containing a concerntration of all the worst aspects of humanity.

CH1's picture

No. The government and its central banker co-tyrants suck, but the people here (at least when they're awake) are mainly decent.

Make the distinction!

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

True to a certain extent, but, the government and central bankers can only exist while the docile, apathic, acquiescent people allow it to...

... therefore the the peoples are just as bad as the government/central banking system they allow to exist.

Land of the free, home of the brave, most certainly not. I've got more respect for the Egyptions and Icelandics.

Chump's picture

No one gives even half a shit who you have respect for.

Tell us, what the fuck are YOU doing about any of the garbage you bemoan?  Oh, that's right, typing a comment on a website.  Good job kid.

johny2's picture

I really think funkyboy is just trolling. He means to offend, and provoke.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

Be careful the distinction you make! I was blogging during the lead-up to the Gulf War, I met nothing but Pigs online, banging the drum of war.

The only thing that's changed is which head the gun is pointed at....funny how most people become nicer, when forced to look in the mirror.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Excellent news, I manufacture Printing Presses.....

Dixie Rect's picture

Can they print dollars on a two-ply perforated roll?

TomGa's picture

Bernanke, in his first or second question, said he expected Q1 GDP to come in less than 2%. Set expectation lower. No real surprises here.  Economy ex ongoing Fed stimulus still in the crapper.

shushup's picture

Buy the dip. Bad news is meaningless to the markets. Sucks that the markets don't reflect reality. Common sense is also meaningless to trading.

mspgrandi's picture

welcome to a new World... THe most bearish news will actually make


Oil Rallies as dxy plunge

Shares rally as dxy plunge

oogs66's picture

and then european stocks rally because the us market is rallying, then the u.s. rallies more because if european stocks are rallying there is no problem with the PIGS...etc

The Axe's picture

No stats matter....dollar down...everything up..

Soul Train's picture

Brilliant analysis, and great coverage/

Compare it to the trash bobble head talking suits on CNBC talking up underwear sales as an indicator for great times to come.



Lord - the Federal media is insane lunacy, deprived of oxygen, and drooling over the goat turds tossed to them.


SoNH80's picture

Exactly! WTF are these idiots smoking?  I'd like some... excerpts from CNBC, or as known in these parts, CNBS

But the pull back in output, which was also the result of harsh winter weather, a widening trade gap as well as weak government spending, will probably be fleeting given a firming labor market.

"We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics before the report was released.

SoNH80's picture

Give me a friggin' break.  Higher oil import prices driving higher import $ volumes???? Hello?? Hello?  Anybody home!  Jeezum crow...

A widening trade deficit weighs on GDP growth because it shows more U.S. demand being sated by overseas production.

Nevertheless, strong import growth has been seen as a sign of underlying strength in domestic demand.


Mike2756's picture

Blindsided by higher gasoline prices? Are they watching the dollar at all?

CrashisOptimistic's picture

The dollar hasn't moved anything at all like gas prices.  Dollar 1.27 euros to 1.48 euros.  Big deal. 15%.

Oil $70 to $113.  That's 60%.

Watching the dollar teaches them nothing.  Watching geology . . . that's another matter.

SoNH80's picture

OPEC is pissed about the debasement of the dollar, that's why they aren't even pretending to expand production (f.e. Venezuela).  Peak oil is out there, but so is the dollar debasement.  They're two sharks in a feeding frenzy, you can't ignore one or the other.

SDRII's picture

Thank goodness for that libya invasion will be huge boost for Q2 GDP! Didnt Bernanke say yesterday defense spending would be light?

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

after years of tarp and QE this is what we get a 1.8 GDP??? stagnant UE..the fed is looking like the walking dead.."somebody has got to go to Jail!" per National Treasure..you bet