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Q2 GDP Revised Down To 1.6% From 2.4%, Beats Revised Expectations Of 1.4%
Q2 annualized came at 1.6%, slightly higher than the revised consensus of 1.4%, and lower than Zero Hedge's expectation of 1.8%. The fact that this was 0.8% lower than the first number is completely lost on Hal9000. We anticipate the final revision to this number will be sub 1%. And why are we looking at Q2 anyway - isn't the upcoming negative Q3 print a little more important? We can't wait for the CNBC clown to gloat that the number has beat his 0.5% estimate (which was established two days ago - where was he when the original 2.4% number came out?)
The only important metric that determines prices, with no alpha, and all beta, AUDJPY surges.
In other news:
- Personal Consumption: Q/Q 2.0% versus Expected 1.6% (Previous 1.6%)
- Core PCE 1.1% versus estimate of 1.1% (Previous 1.1%)
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250 x 1050 puts in place. Long 150 x ES 1049.50. Bye, bye. Have a nice weekend.
MS Trader, I'll keep my SDS longs thank you..and good luck to you at the close today.
But what vol?
SQQQ: Check
Put on TQQQ: Check
See you next week bitchez
ES rallies...
the market jumps on a massive downward GDP revision. Down is up and bad is good.
When you're expecting an hour of excruciating torture, 45 minutes of water boarding and bamboo (green?) shoots under the fingernails is a relief. Good times are here again.
My fly on the wall at J-Hole sent me back this vid of Ben and his cronies talking strategy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqakCa-MysE.
The ship isn't sinking as fast as we thought, order another round of drinks. Party on Ben, party on Tim.
Ben's got to hold off QE2 for another quarter.
That is just about what I personally need to be completely ready for the aftermath.
Personally Tyler, I always drive my car using only the rear view mirror. Don't you?
The stock market is a funny place. When things are shitty, stocks go up cause of expected positive future earnings. Then when things are about to get shittier, stocks go up cause of a (four-time downwardly revised) better than expected past. Wow, that means you can't lose in the stock market!
Revisionist historians have believed that for centuries. And so did George Bush right up till he got a shoe thrown at him at his victory speech.
It's all about false bravado and molding judgement.
unexpectedly good GDP..wtf the expectations a weeks ago was 4%+ or am I living a lie??
Cramer expects a similar response to Friday’s GDP report. He predicted growth of 0.5%, and made a point of announcing what he said was a consensus estimate on-air during Stop Trading!, but he thinks the market will still be shocked when exactly that number is announced tomorrow. And that’s why he thinks stocks will sell off at the opening bell.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38865879
Cover your shorts!!! Buy Buy Buy!!
Cramer slammed by Larry King (CNBC spoof)... funny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adTnyC4MLB0
And why is the market green? Oh it's not as bad as we thought! But it's still bad? Right??!! Yes! Sell!!!!!!!
Also when that CNBC clown got the number whispered to him by the White House.
Please, Mahatma Obama, come on television to tell us how you've shepherded us through the storm.
Cynicism2
Don't you think LIESman would look good with a big red nose?
as fed head bullard lies through his teeth and proclaims the "recovery is going well" hate to see what it would look like if it was not "going well"
what a joke!
Why is it downwards revisions are always expected. Statistically, if the maths were honest, surely 50% should be upwards, and 50% downwards, but the figures are always revised downwards.
Funny how that works ain't it?
So we're supposed to celebrate that things don't suck so bad?
GL
Should be revised down many times in the coming months.
no one apologizes, instead they calmly come out to the public dressed in suits to smile and continue the lies. how long?
Phew....and i was worried about what was going to happen in September and October. Now i can spend the whole day trading off of what happened in May.
My bad, i thought the market was forward looking......guess that was pre bot on bot action.
@lizzy36
So true. All of the old mantras will fall in the coming decade. Buy and hold...efficient markets...forward looking....
Fair markets, regulatory authority, diversification in non-correlated assets (what's that?) ..............
I am waiting for the creation of 'new statistics' which support the administration's preferred future outcome, while older models which do not serve their purposes, are taken out the back and beaten like a red headed stepchild.
in the immortal words of timmay... "welcome to the recovery."
what a tool.
The market is giving the finger for this GDP announcement. Today, it is all about Ben's Kansas speach.
...
liesman painting bullard to be a hero. bullard says: we can only do what we do. what? you mean lie through your teeth and destroy the US economy?
@NOTW777
Liesman's not just a toadie, he even LOOKS like a toadie.
two deceivers sitting in front of that majestic mountain backdrop
Perception is the only realty you're allowed to experience. We tell you what to perceive and the reality you can expect from that perception. Not shut the fuck up and be (shocked and) awed by that majestic mountain in the back ground because that's the (real) steep hill ahead we'll be telling you about once we decide you're ready.
viagra for bot on bot three ways...
The news is nothing more than revised material as yesterday becomes history.
I am sick of all this better than expected when expected was shite anyway. Its like a doctor telling his patient
heh you knoiw we have good news we had expected to have to cut off both your legs but now we only have to cut off one.
well party on garth
really when will this bitch go down
Wow, the economy is doing good. Time to buy a Mac pro. Expensive fucker.
I was just thinking this week that maybe actual results have been coming in less than expected long enough to where estimates going forward are going to start being lowballed so actuals come in "higher than expected" to try and gun the markets.
It seems the talking eggheads and MOPE pushers think that a speech from Mr. Havenstein is all that is needed to "fix" the economy.
Fed's Bullard talking bullish again. QE's not coming today.
think you are right. they seem smugly satisfied with the revision.
they need to save that bullet for October
I've never seen people celebrating a near 50% drop in GDP, to a depression print, and calling it 'GREAT NEWS' as theyre choking on confetti from the ticker tape parade theyre throwing themselves on CNBC. Whats the techincal term for this kind of mass delusion? Probably all close red, this is ridiculous.
CNBC spoof !!! very funny!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adTnyC4MLB0
INdian markets had been performing the best in the world without any hiccups for the last couple of weeks ( killing my shorts on the way)....but today there was a major sell-OFF.......JOHN TAYLOR hits the target .......this is selling by the Foreign Institutional investors( FIIs) ..................The TOP IS IN .............SELLLLLLLLLLLL
http://money.rediff.com/
Best of the morning (to date) Ph.D economist and Fed member Bullard "I do not expect a double dip" in my head i swear i heard Leisman say "Well Jim, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition".
Roubini on Bloomberg Radio - 9:30am
http://noir.bloomberg.com/streams/audio/radio_live.asx
the market is so clever
it waits for a revised lower fugure to go up and sits with baited breath
on a speech from the worlds dumbest f*ck from Princeton whoi
knows as much about economics as Paris Hilton knows about a hard days work
Chart: ES
The S&P 500 futures did indeed pop but any further upside is limited by two downward channels as well as prior support. Looks like it will be a big down day to me. Good luck!
http://www.screencast.com/t/NTU3NTVmYm
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments) increased $72.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of
$148.4 billion in the first quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation
adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $53.7 billion in the
second quarter, compared with an increase of $33.3 billion in the first.
Taxes on corporate income increased $39.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $84.1 billion in the first. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments increased $33.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $64.1 billion in
the first. Dividends increased $4.5 billion compared with an increase of $11.8 billion; current-
production undistributed profits increased $29.2 billion, compared with an increase of $52.4 billion.
Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $0.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $5.2 billion in the first. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $67.9
billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $117.2 billion in the first. In the second
quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real value
added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected an increase in unit prices and decreases in both
the unit labor and nonlabor costs corporations incurred.
The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $5.3 billion in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of $25.9 billion in the first. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents
of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated
foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus
dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The second-quarter increase was
accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments.
Profits before tax increased $41.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of
$224.5 billion in the first. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from
current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments
convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost
basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital
consumption adjustment decreased $1.2 billion in the second quarter (from -$169.9 billion to -$171.1
billion), compared with a decrease of $106.9 billion in the first. The inventory valuation adjustment
increased $32.9 billion (from -$36.4 billion to -$3.5 billion), compared with an increase of $30.8 billion.
So in other words, we're slowing down at a dangerous speed. Like a plane approaching the stall speed
The equity market is just silly, it's also a ponzi scheme. Give it some time. Right as rain, moving along...
We have become a country of lowered expectations.
I'm just curious...with all the new (ex Healthcare) and old (ex. SS, Medicare) govt programs based on GDP growth of 3-4% what happens when that hasn't occurred? Deficit spending will be the only driver of US GDP?.....and this is somehow positive?
So with the Fed.Gov pumping 4.5% of GDP deficit spending the "economy" up that means we "only" shrank in the actual private economy by about 2.9% instead of the -3.1% the "experts" where expecting?
Woo-hoo! Party on, Wayne!!
the only headline beeting expectation I'm waiting for is this:
s and P crashes to 100, better than the expected zero
As first suggested on Thurs 26th, further upside for DOW/SP500 is expected.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
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