Q3 Second Revision: 2.5% Vs 2.4% Expected, Inventory Build Slowdown To Punish Q4 GDP
The BEA has released its second revision to Q3 GDP: "Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.7 percent." Expectation was of 2.4%. The reason: inventories, inventories, inventories. "The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a sharp deceleration in imports and accelerations in private inventory investment and in PCE that were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports." As noted previously the $40-50 billion upcoming Q4 decline in inventories will likely push Q4 GDP flat to negative. In other news, US PCE Core (Q3 S) Q/Q 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%), while US Personal Consumption (Q3 S) Q/Q 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%).
The change in real private inventories added 1.30 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.82 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $111.5 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $68.8 billion in the second quarter and of $44.1 billion in the first.
The second there is no more upward change in inventories, that 1.30% will go flat, or worse, negative. In other words, if Q4 GDP goes back to Q2 levels, that will be a swing factor of 2.6%, pushing Q4 GDP negative for the year.
Lastly, for those expecting final sales growth to persist in Q4 - good luck. The end of extended insurance benefits is estimated to take out about 0.5% of GDP alone. Then again, the data does comes from those funny, funny people at the BLS so be prepared for the glaringly and obviously impossible.
Full highly irrelevant report.