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QE 3 "Protection"?
With less than an hour and a half left until the release of Bernanke's 3:45 pm prepared remarks out of embargo, one wonders if someone may have just purely by accident, and totally inadvertently broken the embargo, in advance of a speech that some see just as important as the Jackson Hole QE 2 announcement. And while the earlier announcement out Fed 8K distributor Jon Hilsenrath made it seem that there would be nothing QE 3-related at all out of Bernanke's Atlanta remarks, perhaps the Fed has finally remembered that the best monetary policy works when it actually surprising. Which incidentally may explain why there is a rather substantial amount of XLF July $16 call buying going on, to the tune of $1.4 million: the option-based bet for a run up versus down in financial stocks (which would be the primary beneficiary in any even remote QE 3 announcement) is substantially tilted to the upside, with a 4 to 1 bias in favor of the calls. Will these calls pay off massively, or will they all expire worthless very shortly: find out at 3:45 pm Eastern.
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Just buy BAC - J. Paulson
Puts?
I hope so. I have lots of them now.
so far so good
7 minutes till I get fucked.
No you wont, I just sold my C puts and went long, you are golden.
Ouch
There's such joy in making money shorting the banks.
it is the most satifying money I have ever made... that and the short profits from LNKD. Next up, groupon
Bernank is just going to show pictures of his weiner.
I can't stand the tension...
...think I'm going to munch on some earless rabbit to calm the nerves.
That's funny, I am gnoshing a bag of rabbit ears. I find the bodies stringy.
Mmmmm earless rabbit veal....and glows too! Great for survivalists.
Just be careful of the venom-dripping fangs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iw2R7y65nFg
Hmmm, could explain the priapism of EUR/USD today, combined with the Merkel/Obama lovefest.
DavidC
Silver bitchez. Consolidated nicely and set to break out.
hells yea.
Every 5 minutes Bernank runs his puppet mouth Ag will climb $1.
If XAG breaches the 200hr moving average cleanly, then I'm going to add to my position on the following dip. Silver has been struggling since 6-1, and the 200h looks like the resistance level to watch. It's putting in higher lows though.
Someone should tell the Corp bond markets. They remain weak.
weak? Corp Bonds are fantastic
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s233943224]&disp=P
Hi Yields have been fantastic (and showing a bit of a rounded top).
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s232907077]&disp=P
Financials are weak relative to other sectors... calls,,, yuk....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s236313088]&disp=P
The Bernank is going to announce that Austrian Economics had it correct all along, and that Paul Krugman and he had been 'sexting' each other for years now, but that Krugman is trying to blackmail him into more QExxx (by releasing pics of Bernank's weiner) ever since he confessed to Krugman that he had the hots for Andrea Mitchell (Greenspan's wife), of MSNBSC infamy.
At $9 per, someone laid out a whopping few thousand bucks? Whoopee.
There will be no QE3 anytime soon. Once the market wakes up to this reality, the deleveraging across asset classes will be swift and painful, for those who are long of course...
obamma discontinues the daily economic briefing per FBN. We are now on autopilot/drifting.........
EUR and AUD still super strong.
Still a huge disconnect between currencies and stocks.
Nothing like the disconnect between your brain and medula oblongata.
SD1 very clever!
Abby Normal something or other.
You forgot to mention the Euro. Up 0.8% last time I checked.
fact is though you're short as you boasted to the board several times that you would be if the s&p 500 broke below 1300. so if this article is correct and the call buyers are right you'll once again lose both ways: on the drop and then the whipsaw back up. unless of course you didn't take your own advice (which is my hunch) and held tight with the old widows and orphans portfolio of hd, mo and vz. LOL! as would bray.
robottrader: not taking his own advice daily.
Like there is disconnect between silver spot and the actual cost of digging it out of the ground?
Where is the $20 silver ounces you were so confident about two months ago? Please, just tell me because I need to buy some more worthless rocks...
Thats my problem with trying to stay short C.
But, Im also short UDN (dollar short fund, so Im long the usd) the puts are cheeeep, so really I have a semi straddle at this point, damn this can get complicated.
The suspense is killing me...not!
Someone should tell the Corp bond markets. They remain weak.
Tyler,
I oh so hope that uncle Ben nervously hints to a QE3. Please...it is all I want for Christmas. The signaling that the Fed cannot even allow one money printing scheme to expire before hinting to the next would be a MASSIVE sign of weakness.
And so XLF calls aside, this would be an amazingly terrible thing for him to do, and thus may well propel the angriest of folk to commence commentary about just how frightened the Fed must be that he would throw the hail Mary on second down, and leg up the price of Average Joe's box of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese yet again.
Additionally, the spinning criminal syndicate Wall Street banker chatter over at the BlowHorn would be something to behold, with 100% bullish cliches parroted in perfect harmony, as perfect algo bid lifting is met with perfect liquidation like selling. Seriously, that chaos would be well worth the price of admission.
Let's hope so!
Brother Cdad Im PRAYING doofus hints at QE...hell I hope he says its $4 trillion! I dare the sucka!
4 trillion fiatskis will not be enough to delay the revolution that will or will not be televized.
It would propel the Fed into the headlines again, and not in any good sort of way. It would cause the political commentary channels to go nuts. It would foster Internet sites everywhere to again remind Average Joe just who the biggest thief in the history of the planet is. It would shine the spotlight once again upon the criminal syndicate Wall Street banking class, its bonus structures, its unproductive productivity.
The very thing that would be best for the banking class, namely shoving this kleptocratic crime wave into a corner and tossing a pile of coats over it, would be thwarted.
Because we all know the truth. Capital cannot...in fact will not...form under such a criminal class of bankers as ours.
Blood in the water...that would be the signal...XLF calls notwithstanding.
Theyre at 'damned if we do damned if we dont' point any way I look at it.
That is correct, brother Dog.
If he hints at qe3 , gold will bust 1600 by the weekend. However , i dont think he will. Markets know he wont or theyd be behaving differently.
But those of us interested in the rule of law and real money...we can dream.
I just go out and buy a few ounces of gold after one of those dreams. Quite expensive.
ALMOST EVERY time I buy gold it seems expensive. Maybe it's supposed to be expensive...
Same here, but I keep doing it anyways. The end game will prove it cheap by todays "price".
Yes, congressman and senators would be buying.
Tuco
One macaroni (with some microscopic cheese dust on it)... The NEW dollar menu...
Find out at 3:45??? Like, hell.
I'm buying them too.
got me a 100 in june. cheap as chips.
Who needs the illiquidity. FAS trigger waiting.
Exactly... These f'ckers are already scared to death. The pump primer is primed and the governor is flipped.
The Ber$tank put.
Not a bad play, they are cheap to IV. There is massive support from 14.50-15.00, dead cats do bounce from time to time.
Sure, why not?
From these levels, it would be a 6.5% rally in XLF and an exact touch of a declining 50 day EMA. If the strike price would have been 17 (or even 18 :D) it would mean a lot more. But, from my view, someone is betting on a dead cat bounce. Notting more.
But, from my view, someone is betting on a dead cat bounce. Nothing more.
Agree.
These days its all so hillarious...always within a couple hours one of the wizards is always scheduled to speak to the huddled masses about something of utmost importance it all hinges upon. What a joke.
The OI on the July 14 and 15 puts is adequate counter-balance to this last-minute red herring. Remember how those SLV puts expired last month.
You still remember when they all clinged to Frogface's lips,
trying to read between the lines of his Fed-gibberish,
looking out for any miniscule clues for higher or lower interest rates,
interpreting the thickness of his suitcase as a harbinger even.
"Froth" -- aye, that was some froth.
When it subsided, there was no beer left in the glass.
1.4mil? thats what the junior is allowed to drop each day punting pinksheets on the Goldman retail desk.
And, from my POW, if he hints at QE3 (or even outright says it would happen) we could indeed see a massive rally (7-10% on the S&P), and I think this would be the shorting opportunity of alifetime.
God would never permit that as it would make me too happy.
I think (hope) you are wrong. I think a lot of people say they don't expect QE3 but are positioned just in case we get it.
Isn't the figure more like $1.4M?
With everyone and there dog expecting QE3, I am going to take the other side of the bet. There will be no QE3 at the expiration of QE2. We have to get some pain and then maybe, probably, will we get some QE3.
Mark this day on you calendars. This is the day the Fed told the truth. This will be a nonevent.
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
Zing, that would be my guess as well.
What are you talking about? Everyone is expecting exactly what you laid out, with the exception of the "maybe, probably" portion. It will definitely happen eventually (TINA says), and they will definitely inflict pain first in order to create a mandate (nothing new there, either).
The only argument is when it will happen, not if.
I find it strange that people are constantly confusing the two, thinking they are being contrarian when actually in agreement. (I make this comment, because I've made this response multiple times here.)
waste of money....
Anyone anticipating anything about QE3 is going to be sorely disappointed. The story du jour is 'temporary' pull back. Three Fed reps have been out the past two days to say the QE2 is ending. They need to see this market go down much more before they roll out QE3. And if they want shock, they'll do it at the June 22 meeting, not today.
(The conspiracy theorist in me has the Fed buying Eur/USD today in advance of a mild letdown speech so the pull back wont be that bad. They need oil at 85 and gold under 1400 as unemployment is not going to be solved overnight.)
I do think QE3 comes but probably in July. Rosengren said "it is too early to tell" if they need more QE3 which tells me he wants to do it, but they're not going to yet..
I think you're right Re-D; I'm in cash. I expect no word whatsoever or even a hint; and that the market will sell the no-news.
.
DXY's starting to look like its old self again...staring down 73. A QE surprise a-la-Benny might just get us a poke at 72.9 handle.
If old Ben flinches, ready yourself for an absolute disorderly decline in the US dollar. It would be Fed suicide...which is exactly what the nation needs to finally rid itself of this criminal syndicate Wall Street banking king.
They cant do QE or the dollar melts thru its containment vessel, silver and gold would pop to new highs and far higher...and can't say they wont do QE or stocks and bonds and all the other things being juggled crash down. Ben, enjoy your nice tightrope walk across the grand canyon.
I argued just this point last night with some fight club member. Indeed, the risk to the dollar is MASSIVE. Anything done by a flinching on old Ben's part will be undone by that damage.
For the record, I am in the camp that says...he cannot say peep about QE3...yet.
Agreed. His word du jour is going to be "monitor." I think the market's bent will be that he's dovish even if he tries to stay neutral. What he's good at is lying through his teeth without stammering or looking at the ceiling for those special words that ascribe no accountability.
Agreed. But from my own positioning and point of view, consumer discretionary stocks get killed no matter what he says...especially those so ridiculously over owned that there is only one direction for them to go now.
I'll be "monitoring" for quivering voice Ben. He is not very confidence inspiring when the pressure is truly put squarely on him.
I think you just summoned Robo...
From my lips to the XRTs ears...the selling has picked up speed.
In fact, selling picking up pretty much everywhere...lending little credence to the idea that old Ben has some QE love up his sleeves.
I still say Bernank just shows a picture of his weiner.
Leave it to the sheep to pine for a whip-it-out show...
Seems to be the only thing the media and people care at all about.
Seems to be the only thing sheep are known for...
"'Scuse me while I whip this out."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYlDbv7MqE8
If a FED chair whips out his weiner in a forest... Does it make a sound?
The forrest doesnt evern murmurr.
QE3 confirmation in 45 mins...... maybe
I hope he does, go ahead Ben cut your own throat. But I think it will be more like some tightrope act, hinting at both QE and no QE somehow.
WWMMD? (What would Mr. Magoo Do?)
Problem is, this $14MM in calls can just be a hedge to a portfolio that is short $140MM of XLF. I'm curious as to this trade, and the cynic in me says it is a leakage, but us plebs will not no until 3:43.
I bet they cover right before
Whenever The Bernank opens his smarmy, bearded orifice, PMs fly.
The CONgress bequeathed The Bernank a market maker, fiatski printing press and all...
Great fun watching The Bernank and his beard on one screen lying to the world and PMs tick by tick on other. Get the popcorn ready, my friend. =)
June 22 people. If things fall apart, that is the Fed's QE firewall where they can re-rally the markets.
They NEED a selloff to give them cover. Just like a drug dealer who needs people to beg for more of the shit before he gets them addicted.
Is there anyone left to be fooled by QE?
Wall Street
Millions.
silver and gold poised to jump..
when the berrnak
opens his mouth ...
The best thing for the fed to shock the market would be to stop paying interest on reserves and to raise interest rates by a small amount of a quarter to half a percent interest. This would drive commodity prices down and give the consumer money to spend and stop the wealth transfer to all the commodity producing countries.
It's a sick society when the market revolves around the words of a government bureaucrat. Free markets attempt to divine truth from statistics and information gathering. This is sick feudal fealty to a corrupt autocracy.
Bernank is NOT a government bureaucrat. He is the chairman of the PRIVATE Federal Reserve.
No hint, nothing. We close at the lows.
Bernank doesn't seem like a wild kind of guy. Anti-climax anyone?
I think Bernanke is in a box until there is a debt ceiling raise.
The best he could do in my opinion is to indicate that they will reinvest the runoff and the interest on loans paid.
Yet, they are now borrowing from Federal Pensions to hold up the spending. So, they may need the money from the runoff and the interest just to pay the bills.
all this anticiaption is making my weiner hard.
i'm so excited about more QE, that i'm starting to hyper, hyperinflate!
QE3 hyped intraday market ballon is deflating.
Right now.
Artist's Impression Of Ben Bernanke's Facebook Profile | zero hedge
Homeland Security knew Months ago that almost al of you above me here were going to break the Law! Homeland Security has F.A.S.T. and ALL! of you (almost) will be going to jail very soon!
Short that Bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wqooBmYfQ4
Look at al the crime that has been stoped till now! YOU FUCKERS ARE NEXT!!
www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/privacy/privacy_pia_st_fast.pdf
http://www.dhs.gov/files/programs/gc_1218480185439.shtm
Holy shit... "and the people will demand it"
If I can, I almost want to go long these companies as it will only grow larger and get worse.
Go Long ALL of these! LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG! +++
Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences ProjectsGet e-mail updates when this information changes
On This Page:http://www.dhs.gov/files/programs/gc_1218480185439.shtm
the public face or public indoctrination to the bulk of these sciences.. is..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVG5AwZph-s
"We the People" are being warmed to all things...
Like the fact that Law Enforcement new, new job is to act like ambulance chasing esquires.. if you can get away with it.. and you dont get caught or more likely the judge who is prosecuting from the bench will let the under handed bullshit go.
Our Legal System is more corrupt than the people its prosecutes every day. Fact!
I would not be so pissed off about How the Courts Screw People.. if the Courts were Screwing Child Molesters.. or something like that.. but they screw home owners and people who speed in their cars at 3 am on the highway, when no one else is even on the road (personal one there).. just screw people to screw people and raise funds from "We the People" however possible!
Plus, Bernanke has given the Street way too many drugs. They are all hopped up. He may have to put them in a rehab soon.
It really comes down to at this point continue to destroy Mainstreet to keep Wall Street making Billions in Bonuses.
Although, it appears that Bernanke seems too have no concern about Mainstreet and whether they survive or not. Only problem is that they (Mainstreet Consumers) are the ones that drive profits for Wall Streets Companies. Hmmm. Hard decision.
Cold turkey, bitchezzz !
Does anybody know why rice jumped by 8 % today ?
because
a few billion people
are hungry...
With the news out of Fukushima about the doubled radiation, it may be that the market sees a shortage of edible rice in Japan.
Someone heroic has to die or it's not a Greek Tragedy.
Bernanke is doing everything in his power to kill the middle and working classes, at his masters' bidding.
Do the working and/or middle class count as heroic?
If not, then whom?
Sure! If I've learned anything from collectivism, is its ability to translate individual traits onto a corpus populi makes it easy to visualize the populi as a collective corpse.
Bernanke will bring the pain!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mgSCKXSp9M
You have three options... you can creep slowly into a deflationary depression that would last around 12-24 quarters, or you can stimulate the economy every time we fall near or below critical levels and suffer a great stagflation worse than the 1970's and possibly runaway inflation ending the reserve status of the dollar and virtually all of it's current value, or jump the three hurdles and attempt a real recovery without a depression or more multi-level stimulus plans.
Housing recovery:
Bank held real estate inventories too high to allow for real price discovery to find a bottom in many US sub-markets. Lending too tight to fuel any substantial speculative increase or boom in new or old construction. A higher personal savings rate and the shift to to paying down existing debt instead of taking on more. A small level of fear lurks in the real estate market and a high unemployment rate is clearly the anchor holding back any near term chance of a US housing recovery.
Unemployment:
There will be no real economic recovery without job growth. Corporations are holding trillions in cash and, in general, are currently not inclined to hire new employees whose costs are, due to public policy, very uncertain. Small business, which creates the great majority of all US jobs has seen little benefit from previous stimulus efforts and no organic economic recovery will be possible without strong small business growth.
Debt Crisis:
US Treasuries are currently too unattractive to keep rates relatively stable, the Federal Reserve must monetize the debt (recently up to 70%). Going forward, no matter what is said about the "end of QE2" the Fed will have to purchase a substantial portion of the debt for the US government to keep the lights on for foreseeable future. The US is currently taking funds from retirement accounts to make up the shortfall from exceeding the debt ceiling. I see no serious will in the politicians to reduce the US budget by enough to make a difference in our monetary trajectory's endpoint. The Keynesian strategy for recessions requires that interest rates remain stable and the budget deficits should be run to make up for the decrease in aggregate demand from the market. Unfortunately the debt issuance increases and cause the underlying fundamentals of the US treasury market to become more unstable. We are so far down the road of potential ruin, this one is technically very difficult to be positive or optimistic about.
There will be no organic US recovery before another collapse.
The financial system is the fourth hurdle, no one dares to touch.
A wise man once said ... We Are All Fucked.
http://nationaleconomist.blogspot.com/
boner killer...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gy2LCAtwrZo&feature=feedu
Ah yes, the ole Hilsenrath Head-Fake. Together with the Liesman Lubrication Obfuscation, what more does a Fed head need?
Well, other than the obvious BIS gifted immunity from prosecution. But that goes without saying...
Total non-event....he can't afford to say anything at this time.......just the usual blather....
Total non-event to us perhaps, but to The Bernank, he has to do better than his 60 Minutes performance, lest he find himself the next sacrificial lamb. Loyalty can only go so far when defending someone who can't even lie credibly.
Wells Fargo...searching for value...otherwise known as Oblivion.
Dark inventory? You are the BEST of The Best.
OMFG . . . (it's the end of the world as we know it . . . )
print more$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
that trade may be related to QE3 actually not getting announced and if short term rates begin to rise, it will be positive for the banks and their NIMs