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Quantifying The Impact Of "Bailout #2" On Greek Bonds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the transitory (see, we can use that word too) surge in the EURUSD (and thus the S&P) may have already peaked, with the FX pair now at overnight lows, and likely soon to retrace the entire "bailout #2 rumor" spike, the one question few are asking is just how big of an impact is Germany's alleged (we have yet to see official confirmation that the WSJ story is correct) concession to a less dire Greek bailout #2 on the one instrument it is supposedly focused on, i.e., Greek 10 Year bonds. The chart below answers that question. From a high just over 16%, the 6.25% GGBs of 6/19/2020 have seen a "massive" plunge... of 32 bps. As of today, pricing in Bailout #2, the market is so antsy to get into Greek bonds that the 10 year is down to a whopping 15.843%. But at least the true focus on the "Greek bailout", the DAX and the RUT, are doing their thing.

 

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Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:33 | 1325660 alexwest
alexwest's picture

well, that should be this way..
guys, who run bond shops ,are way smart and forward lookng them equaty, so what about spain/ireland/etc.. what about next year? in 2 years ? well Greek goverment will get 1 year more ,

but what about Greek banks, Greek businesses ?

thats all junk , Greek is dead and only way is to ditch the euro, back to druhma..

alx

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:34 | 1325667 GhostTrader
GhostTrader's picture

nice squiggly lines!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:40 | 1325672 Muir
Muir's picture

"From a high just over 16%, the 6.25% GGBs of 6/19/2020 have seen a "massive" plunge... of 32 bps. As of today, pricing in Bailout #2, the market is so antsy to get into Greek bonds that the 10 year is down to a whopping 15.843%. But at least the true focus on the "Greek bailout", the DAX and the RUT, are doing their thing."

ok, that was very funny.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 13:08 | 1325749 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

ZH is not doing it self a favour by oversensonializing stories, like when gold goes up 0.5% ZH calls it a surge, let off some seam dudes

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:39 | 1325673 MacedonianGlory
MacedonianGlory's picture

All the Socialist propaganda media in Greece say that a "deep breath" in spreads was taken after bailout#2 announcement

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:48 | 1325704 viator
viator's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kq4m2aNNmk

One third of people in Greece now want a revolution, and 98% and 89%, respectively, hold the government and speculators responsible for the crisis. Almost none of them have confidence in their leader's ability to solve the financial crisis, and most of them have negative opinions of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the big EU nations, such as Germany. And this not mere talk: Greek revolutionary groups - and there are tens of them - are already well-armed with basic weapons and bomb-making equipment, as attempts to assassinate various world leaders showed. They have also committed at least one terrorist atrocity - a bombing of a bank in which three people were killed - and have carried out a series of bomb attacks across Greece. They have also carried out gun and grenade attacks on police stations.

http://europeandisunion.blogspot.com/2011/05/greece-stands-on-brink.html

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 14:11 | 1325977 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

The problem with all these ridiculous "Greek Revolution" theories is that they ignore what the protestors are protesting for:  more socialism!  The very thing that kicked off all the fun to begin with!  They don't want solutions--they want more of the problem!

 


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 03:54 | 1327759 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

So 3 bank workers killed is an atrocity?

The've been rioting since dec 7 2008. I'd say they got some damn good serious self control.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 13:11 | 1325756 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Rumor??? I, augh, forget it.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 13:22 | 1325779 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Even Greek bonds due next year don't seem to be getting much of a bounce.  But why worry about details like the asset that should be getting the most direct benefit is least impacted in today's trading session?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 13:34 | 1325829 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the credit default swaps may be feeling it more than 32 bps.  anyone know?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 14:00 | 1325941 chartcruzer
chartcruzer's picture

Dollar has a new sell signal.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s224230059]&disp=P

Euro has a new buy signal.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218921777]&disp=P

When the Europe debt bubble finally pops,,,,   (maybe late 2011) will be the "hot potato" opportunity of the century

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 14:16 | 1325981 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Greek bond party, over at Juncker's place--spread the word!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 16:00 | 1326260 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Greece isn't "dead; Greece is the most alive, smartest country in Europe. They are sucking all they can for as long as they can in one of those just-keep-giving-to-us-and-we-promise-we-will-be-your-friend kinda thingy! As soon as that "I'm gonna leave" no longer works, then it's back to the dharma! Greece has all the aspects of being able to reestablish a great country: wonderful weather that brings incredible food, a gregarious and united people with One language, and a loyalty to their history. No "we are so bad that we will rewrite our history books and tell our children to hate themselves and their country" stuff for Greece. No decimation and destruction of self for Greece; they love love love themselves! (is self-destruction and genocide of ones own country solely an American thing? just wondering) . You'll never hear a Greek say anything bad about being Greek, or living in Greece no matter the squabbling that goes on. No only America imports third word trash to support and demand that redistribution and reverse colonization is the de facto mode of genocide. Kinda reminds ya of all the drugs those liberals take doesn't it? Self-destruction writ large? Hmmm.....

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