Quarterly New York State Tax Revenues Drop 24% Compared To 2008

Tyler Durden's picture

A new monthly report released by the New York State Comptroller indicates that the tax collection weakness in Empire State continues. For the April-July quarter total tax revenue was $11.5 billion, $52 million below projection, and, more significantly, $3.6 billion below amount collected in the prior year period. For the Year To Date period, receipts, including transfers from other funds, through
July 2009 of $15.7 billion were $190.9 million below Financial Plan
projections released by DOB on July 30 and $4.8 billion lower than last
year for the same period.

General Fund Personal Income Tax collections of $7.3 billion were $3.3
billion below last year through July, primarily due to collections in
April 2009, and $25.4 million below projections for the first four
months. Year-to-date business tax collections of $1.3 billion were $181
million higher than collections for the same period last year,
primarily due to higher than expected collections in June 2009 and $7.1
million below projections for the first four months.

“Although there were some small signs that the national economy is
slowly turning around, economists project it will take longer for New
York State to recover,” DiNapoli said. “The fact remains that state
revenues continue to fall below financial estimates that were updated
just two weeks. New York has a very real and growing current year
deficit. The Governor and Legislature need to make some difficult
choices that weren’t made in the Enacted State Budget. The state cannot
afford to postpone these decisions. We must readjust our priorities to
meet the economic crisis.”

On the spending side, things are also getting serious: while overall spend was $16.7 billion $2.4 billion, below the prior year period, the decline in spending was mostly due to costs for General
State Charges (down $829.8 million primarily due to the timing of
payments) and Medicaid (down $1.7 billion – reflecting federal stimulus
Medicaid payments made from other funds).

In other words, the $1 billion deficit to date is in reality almost $2 billion if all expenses were recognized as incurred, and almost $4 billion if one excludes the Medicaid piggybank.

Also, if New Yorkers complain about the educational system, they should note that education spending increased by 649 million compared to the last year.

Full monthly cash report provided.


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kensdad's picture

Is there like a 3X leverage bullish NY State ETF that the liquidity pigs can buy?

Gilgamesh's picture

2x NY, brilliant!


NYNY +37% today.

Anonymous's picture

If NY goes like CA, what will be US?

SilverIsKing's picture

SHIT!!!  I gotta file my 2008 return already!

Anonymous's picture

My local State Senator in NY was in the paper..
He is taking a $100,000 a year salary; PLUS his $70,000 pension at the same time. These guys voted themselves this criminal deal...

Audicar's picture
Audicar (not verified) Aug 19, 2009 8:13 PM

Or call Jim Cramer's Mad Money show and see if he recommends adding it to a "Green Shoots!" portfolio.

good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Anonymous's picture

Looks like we've got an odd little spambot here. It takes comments from a different thread (the Cramer comment), reposts them, and then adds a link to some other stupid blog.

Might be time to turn off anonymous posting, TD...

Anonymous's picture

I post anonymously but I would agree - time to turn off anonymous posting. This is a first class blog and the regulars who comment (I only post occasionaly) provide consistently fun and/or useful comments.

In fact, on my own blogs I am in the process of turning off all comments. Here's what seems to be happening. The spammers take a domain and a public email address off a blog and use it for email header spoofing. So, I am in the process of making my little blogs 'invitation only'.

In the case of a power blog like ZH, perhaps you could think about an 'invite' button that registered users could use (ie they enter the details for the person they invite, with invitations limited to one per week or something like that) to help you keep the blog lively while you lock it down?

I'm a fan of both ZH and the people who comment here. So, I thought I'd offer a couple of ideas.

Project Mayhem's picture

Slightly off topic but ZH relevant --


"Laura Blankfein and her friend Susan Friedman, wife of another Goldman honcho, Richard Friedman, caused a huge scene at Super Saturday in the Hamptons last weekend when they arrived at the event before the noon start time and balked at waiting in line with the other ticket-holders.

“Their behavior was obnoxious. They were screaming,” said one witness. Blankfein said she wouldn’t wait with “people who spend less money than me.”



I can’t believe I didn’t see this before. Laura Blankfein going mental over having to wait on line at a charity dinner… this is like the most awesome thing ever.I can just imagine her the next morning, complaining to Lloyd while shining his head with Turtle Wax before he goes off to work.



Sqworl's picture

That's three weeks old...it was the same week that he scolded GS employee's about the Lufthansa Heist loot...don't buy anything flashy!

Too bad he has to go home with all that money, to his ugly fat troll wife..lol


Project Mayhem's picture

Oh.  Yeah you're right.


I just read the latest IF and Chapman had mentioned it so I figured I'd pass it along.


Sqworl's picture

Thanks anyway......Read W and favorite colum Countess goes off on what these people continue to do with our money...Flash, bling, Flash...Shameless.  Even Denise Rich is keeping a low profile. You would think after Madoff using money from regular folk to buy a chateau and PJ and how fucking watches?  I know he wore two because he could not read military time or do the math...x

OBRon's picture

Not Laura "Marie Antoinette" Blankfein???  Horrors!!!

Audicar's picture
Audicar (not verified) stockoperator Aug 19, 2009 8:13 PM

Heh.. I feel so much better now that our oppression is being made fun of on the web.

good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Anonymous's picture

It's most certainly a revenue problem, never a spending problem.

Just raise taxes and be done with it already.


flying shoes's picture

Bingo. That's why I'm all in NY munis. Raise taxes, close libraries and fire stations, and laugh all the way to the bank.

Project Mayhem's picture

The relationship between taxes and revenue is highly nonlinear.  Beyond the local and global maxima , raising taxes reduces revenue (because it drives commerce to the underground economy).  Munis were defaulted upon in droves during the Great Depression. 



I believe it is much too late to prevent a global systemic crisis.  I hope I am wrong.



SteveNYC's picture

Great, this is going to feel good for my pocket at the end of the year.....just like last year! Can't wait!!

They should levy a "special tax" on the likes of Goldman for raping people the way they do, in this state, in this town.

And to think realtors are trying to lease apartments in the city for the same as they were last year! Vacancies are going through the roof, dam is about to break.

Sqworl's picture

I guess you did not hear! Developers are getting bailout from guess who???


I would love to see them give all these empty high end apartments to the homeless.

Miles Kendig's picture

Being the selfish person that I am I would like to see them offer those apartments to severely disabled war veterans. Especially homeless disabled war vets.

curbyourrisk's picture

RIP New York.

Anyone outside NY need a risk manager?  Sepcializing in credit risk?

Anonymous's picture

shouldnt you be sending your resume to david patterson?

Joe Sixpack's picture

I think there are some openings in California...

Simple Steve's picture

Anonymous was right. Taxes should be raised. That'll fix the problem.

Its not like there's ever been changes in taxes before.


I would love to see the results of a national survey of Americans asked to what percentage of all their income they pay in total taxes in a year. Gas taxes, Sales tax, income tax, social security, everything. Wonder what an 'ad campaign' like that on tv would provoke? :D

Anonymous's picture

I've thought about this before too. Would be great if Mint.com used sales tax rates to give you an estimate of taxes on your purchases, and incorporate your other tax payments/withholdings as well. I'd imagine people would be very surprised at the results

Ben_the_Bald's picture

Trivia question: During the first quarter of 2009, and compared to the same quarter in 2008, which state had the highest percentage drop in revenue? Answer: Alaska, down 72%.


defender's picture

That makes sense to me.  They don't have a state tax up there, they pay you to live there instead.  Almost all of the state revenue comes from oil, which is why that particular quarter is so bad.

economicmorphine's picture

It's not a NY or a CA problem.  It's a problem everywhere.  24% meshes perfectly with the top line on most P&Ls as well, since they're down betwen 20% and 30% YoY.  Gubment can say whatever they want, but the real economy has shrunk between 20% and 30%.  That's a D, not an R.

deadhead's picture

TD said: Also, if New Yorkers complain about the educational system, they should note that education spending increased by 649 million compared to the last year.

Patterson was actually pushing for large cuts in education spending, mainly because he had no choice due to the precipitious drop in revenue, which showed some balls on his parts due to the teacher's union's influence.  anyways, the stimulus bill passed and all the proposed cuts went out the window and, yes, education spending went up.  don't get me wrong, i'm a big pro education guy, but in NY it is just throwing money at a situation which is way beyond diminishing returns.

the tax revenue decline tells me what i need to know about real data points vs some of the bullshit out of the BLS et al. 

Thanks for publishing this TD

Printfaster's picture

Teachers?  They own the government.  Even Mugabe has to pay the teachers first with the cops/troops.

If you don't pay the teachers, the kids will be everywhere doing whatever they want.  Teachers are the cops for the under 18 crowd.


Miles Kendig's picture

At least for the 65% that actually stay in school until they are supposed to graduate HS.

Audicar's picture
Audicar (not verified) Aug 19, 2009 8:13 PM

  I wasn't paying attention.  I know you got OPEX on Friday, and the bias is to the upside in a month like August 2

good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions