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A question for Bernanke from the WSJ??
We’re all sitting on the edge of the chair waiting for word from the Fed
and then waiting a bit more to hear from Bernanke. I’m of the opinion
that this is all being orchestrated. The questions to be asked at the
press conference have been sanitized, Bernanke has seen what questions
that will be posed in advance.
The hardest questions for Bernanke to answer will be on the issues of
Fed Policy and it’s implications to core inflation. The Fed has said
repeatedly that they don’t care about headline price increase. But the
problem is that the headlines are about to kill the economy (again). How
much more do gas prices have to rise before it triggers another
downward leg? My answer to that is, "not very far at all".
The WSJ had an article this morning by my favorite guy, Jon Hilsenrath.
Jon teed up the question of headline versus core inflation in this piece
(link).
Jon looks at inflation expectations based on the five-year TIPS spread
and five-year coupon bonds. This is his conclusion based on the
information presented:
It’s not an alarming rise and the latest downward drift should comfort some officials. Over a longer stretch of time, it doesn’t like much of a big move.
Jon does his best to minimize the inflation debate with these quotes from Janet Yellen:
Information
derived from the Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) market
also suggests that financial market participants’ longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Much of the increase in five-year inflation compensation….. appears consistent with a normal cyclical recovery after adjusting for those effects.
Both the Fed and the WSJ are using market-based data to make a point.
Inflationary expectations are tame in their view. But what numbers do
they use to draw this important conclusion? The answer is they chose the
most favorable comparison. Looking only at the five-year implied
inflation give the most favorable outcome. Consider this chart:
I’m nit-picking here. But I think this is an indication of what we will
hear from the Chairman later today. I’m betting that he attempts to
blunt the inflation story. He will use the same analysis that the WSJ
used this AM.
I call this a “double spin”. The Fed and the WSJ are
teaming up to manage the news and to frame the debate. Look for Jon
Hilsenrath to ask Bernanke a question on inflation expectations and
expect Bernanke to answer using only the five-year data. If that should
happen, it will be the confirmation of the collusion between the Fed and
the WSJ.
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If a Bernanke shits in the woods, does anyone smell it?
If a Geithner buries it, will anyone know it existed?
If the DHS places the woods off limits, will anyone care?
If TEPCO then nukes the surrounding area, will the government radiation detectors publish the readings?
Just some thoughts.
Damn't! Are we gonna have to get someone with the balls to get tough for answers?
Where's the Donald? He's the only one to get a Barama birth certificate, that has yet to be authenticated.
HOPE is a four letter word...
@#*&^%$#@!!!!
gh
If all the questions were pre-screened they shouldn't even bother with a press conference. This qualifies more as propaganda than transparency. What a fucking joke.
The questions were pre-screened? I didn't know that! In that case, I agree with you. The whole thing was just a smoke screen!
This is all very, very bullish! Everything has now been proven to be fine, fine, fine (as if any further proof were needed) in this Best of all Possible Worlds!
Let's call this a conference call that's "straight out of central Krasting".
I see these as great opportunities to see how far Ben has come in the mastering of his stutter. It's like an American version of: "The King's Speech". Everytime he cracks you have to take a shot.
This is anecdotal information but the bar I go to raised it's beer price a 1$ a bottle yesterday.
it's probably just you
which is why i repeatedly turn down the very low yearly subscription price from barrons and the wsj. shills they are. my wife and i keep close tabs on our costs, they're going up, and i don't need bernanke or the wsj's lies to tell me otherwise.
the data they use is irrelevant bollocks
they only use data that fits their agenda
and if it can't be made to fit they make it up
nothing to see here, move on
TIPS what a scam . They use the totally useless CPI to determine par value . One lie to cover another or as you put it , double speak .
My guess:
The Fed statement will be "relatively" hawkish compared to the recent past. And then Bernanke will spend the afternoon soothing the markets.
gh
We should hook up Mr. Bernokio to an electric chair lie detector.
On his first lie, Bernokio will fry!
#The Fed and the WSJ are teaming up to manage the news and to frame the debate.
#
Bruce, my pal are you an idiot ?
what fuck did you expect from WSJ?
its leading newspaper in financial capital of world,
in the city where major is multi billioner owns another financial company..
what do you expect from WSJ?
its not going to declare that in 2,3 years USA budget is gonna be fucked form rising rates and debt servicing will be over 50% of and only exit is cut spending in half and jack up income rates upto 50% or DEFAULT / HYPERINFLATION /etc..
get serious
alx
More smoke and mirrors, setting up the "reasons" for raising the debt ceiling to give politicians more cover when it comes time to get votes again. We are on the downhill slope and no one seems to be able to pull the brake lever to discover there are no brakes!
Whatever happened to the caveat "Past performance does not guarantee future expectations"?
bruce what did you think of that article suggesting Hilsenrath is an embedded reporter with the Fed?
it is interesting that Ben can't field live questions.
for my money i want to see how much dissonance there is between Ben and the administration. Bush and Paulson used to drag him around like a poodle. and sometimes he didnt' like it. i want to see if he snarls a bit at Congress and his handlers.
Does anyone know how the audience asking questions is selected? Is there a panel, or can anyone present ask? What is the criteria for attending this thing?
In other words, how likely are we to see any 'free-thinkers' called upon?
how many of those "market indicators" predicted Bear Sterns, Lehman, AIG, Credit Crisis, Dot-Com bust, inflation of the 1970s, decline of inflation in the 1980s years (or even months) before the event took place?
Benny and Jonny can cake that TIPS spread and shove it... 'cause GOLD is showing something totally different!
Kremlinlogy is giving me a headache.
Zero Hedge post wrong pic. Google "Huggy Bear." Or "Snoop-dog as Huggy Bear."
So they continue the propaganda, we all expect that, but unless they change policy gas prices will continue to rise and as you point out that will probably kill the economy. Even Bernankrupt most realise that and pointing to selected market data won't change that either - at best buy a little more time and consider GS's lack of success in manipulating the crude market we are probably talking very little time?
news flash.
Governments (and shadow governments) have motive and opportunity to manipulate information.
Fiat money is the elephant in the room and the Bernank is going to try and create notional value.
The game is in the unspoken.
i didn't read that in the Wall Street Journal. Are you saying "the fact that you don't read about it doesn't mean it's not going on?"
Here is The Obama's problem:
Even a 1 Billion Dollar Campaign Re-Election War Chest won't mean jack shit if The Bernank doesn't signal monetary tightening in the near term, let alone NOT let his foot off the gas pedal.
Obama will be very politically vulnerable against a Mitt Romney should gasoline, food and commodity prices (which have already begun to trickle into final goods' pricing in developed nations) not ease. If they continue to rise, nothing Obama says on the campaign trail will mean much, and the independent voters that assure his election in '08 will either stay home or vote for the 'other guy' (Obama has even managed to alienate a statistically significant component of democratic-leaning voters).
All of The Bernank's horse shit explanations about inflation being 'muted' or 'contrained' already are met with anger by those paying attention. If this gets worse, there will be some sort of major liability that has to be redeemed.
The more these games between The Bernank and Hilsenrat are played, the more contempt they create. Even sheeple ultimately realize they're being sheared and lied to.
Gas prices are just the tip of the spear and are highly visible as they're posted on every street corner in large numerals.
A Mitt Romney??????
You mean the Tax and spend governor of Massachusett, with the bankrupting socialist medical program and scary Ken doll hair-do?
Yeah, that would be change we could live with.
The Republacrats are toast in 2012.
But if it is one of the other Mitt Romneys wandering around the US that you speak of,
my apologies.
You mean those young voters for O'Bama didn't realize that "yes we can" means engage in more middle eastern wars than the last moron? Or bail out more banks? or auto companies? with money printed by the truckload. Or we're going to have health care for all workers except the ones who work for companies he decides to give waivers to? They couldn't have been that wrong could they?
Well, yes, what you said but, more close to home: These Hopium addicts are graduating with minimum $50k - 150k in college loan debt and those McGrille jobs are starting to look good. There are no jobs for the little reality show socialists to snag and the basement walls are closing in.
You've sold me the Eiffel tower right there!
No confirmation needed- the WSJ is the fascist mouthpiece.
As is commonly realized by all Americans, well-dressed people with confusing rhetoric are by definition both expert and respectable. Therefore they are concerned only with the welfare of all citizens and the betterment of the republic. Hence no spin or collusion is possible.
Furthermore, economists know that all patterns set within any five-year time frame are valid for eternity.
Thank You for allowing me to clear that up...
<sarcasm off>
We prefer the term Integration, thank you.
collusion???
next thing you'll be saying that there's no Birth Certificate
You show me yours and I'll show you mine...
but, but we've been through that routine...we know what's what! Circumcision included!
The USDCHF pair has constructed a massive bullish Gartley pattern on the weekly chart. It may be time to get long.
As an inverse, it looks like the AUDUSD has topped, as well.
Just to get that out there...
;)
Thanks Orly.
It's nice to get some financial viewpoints in the comment section,
lately they seem sparce.
.
Echo this. TY Orly.
You're most welcome.
Of course, one can only take any technical set-up with a grain of salt these days, as we are only one announcement away from a total reversal.
The Chinese and Japanese are selling USD and buying Euros?
Trichet is going to raise rates???
I mean, really. Technicals do work when they are allowed to. Problem is They can see them, too, and act accordingly. It is best to have a set-up that is massive in proportin like the Gartley on the weekly USDCHF. It would take a lot of fire-power to reverse that one.
Best of luck trading!
:D
but, but I don't trade. I do try and understand trading mechanisms...You never know we may all end up like poker chips in the mega casino one day. Ave Caesar!