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Questions on the WTI/Brent spread
I’m looking at something in the oil market and can’t make sense of it. Possibly someone could straighten me out.
The Brent/WTI spread hit $10 today. I can’t remember that happening
before. The spread has been widening for some time. It jumped $4
recently.
The excuse offered is that the Cushing Oklahoma facility that is the
settlement for the WTI contract is flush with oil. Not only is it full,
a new pipeline is coming.
I find this interesting. It would appear that the US has a cheaper
source of oil than does Europe. Yet we import more than half of what we
consume. How do we save $10 over Europe? Do we really save that $10?
A significant amount of crude comes to the Gulf coast. That is priced as
Light Louisiana Sweet (“LLS”). The LLS is trading at a premium to WTI
of $8.50 LLS tracks Brent, at least it is now.
My questions are:
I) Is WTI a good measure of what the real cost of crude for the US is?
II) If the real cost is closer to Brent and therefore pushing $100 does it mean that we are about to see a big bump in gas?
III) Many (like Southwest Airways) hedged their fuel cost. Are “they” long WTI but paying LLS and therefore losing on their hedges?
IV) Is there a two-tiered energy market? If so, which region is paying LLS and which is paying WTI?
My answers, but I’m open to a better interpretation:
I) It used to be. But much less so today.
II) I think so. We will find out in 30 days or so.
III) I think some folks are getting creamed.
IV) I don’t know.
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If I were thrown in jail tommorrow I would promise to come out with an army. Because at that point I would have zero participation in modern society. I would be uninsurable. I would not be able to obtain a loan. My land would be forfeit. I would have nothing but myself.
In Christain terms...born again but instead of an engineer. An Irish Tyrant with old Black Irish rules.
Kill everything around a King to kill the King without a sword.
Take the bread from his mouth and curse his fields with salt.
Be in heaven half an hour before the devil knows you're dead.
There are around 20 of them, mostly in dealing with people fairly when they do wrong by you and yours
My Grandmum had the rules on her wall in needle point and I read them everyday. When she passed they were put on my Mum's wall. When my Mum is dead, they will be put on my wall. Other than Ireland and Newfoundland, the Ottawa Valley still speaks gaelic.
Captain Moonlight!
Fekin' A.
Great posts.
Benito and Adolph were there. Can't say no one gave a shit.
http://irc.lc/anonops/wikileaks
Channel is #opEgypt
LOIC channel
4chan is warming up right now to shut down Egypt.
Holy shit...100k of LOIC running on singular targets. Screw Stuxnet. 100,000 annoyed teenagers might be the key.
Asia is coming online...wow...europe anon will be online in a couple of hours. If anyone needs to make a call you might want to do it now. Things will be a little sticky tommorrow.
So far it is isolated to Egypt?
What are the Yemenis doing? Detecting any other unrest?
Bulgaria is mentioned. Yemen...nope. But if the Muslim NYC goes up in smoke you can bet your ass this crap will be in Oman, then the US and England are up shit creek in about a day or two energy wise.
Ever watched Lawrence of Arabia? That's Oman and it is so important for OPEC it's insane. The house of Saud is the prinicipal holder of the fields, but the real king lives in Oman. Always has. It's one reason why when an American, or Canadian or anyone in the western world watches a piece of news about Saudi's it's always a Prince they talk to. The King of the entire line lives, starts and ends in Oman. The rest of the desert is just lines in the sand given after WW1.
that's cuz there are a lot of princes, king abdullah is the king of saudi arabia
and...sovereign of what country? Or pardon which country? Sorry for playing Jeopardy here...but I'm sick to death of people not understanding where that figure head actually lives and judges from...
Carry on with your thought please. You didn't finish your sentence.
What are you talking about? Speak English! It sounds exciting, whatever it is.
Well, as the nerd herd we install a piece of software called LOIC. LOIC joins an IRC channel (at one point in time it's where fat, neck beards used to talk to each other and pretend they were women to cybersex with other neck beards pretending to be interested). Now it's used to organise DDoS attacks.
The DDoS attack emulates billions of server requests in a very short period of time using something called multicast which is usually (if not always) poorly setup on networking equipment between the IRC channel where all the LOIC's gather, which turns one attack into a thousand. Multiply one thousand by 100k and you can kick banks over, force servers to reboot, phone systems to shut down, firewalls to become "fire-fences with an open gate".
It is when the unstopable meets a match stick fort.
Hard to explain it anymore than that. I would post the download link, but if you can't hide behind proxy's and public VPN's it's fairly illegal to ...ummm... perform the action of all of the above.
The channel is targeting Egyptian government communications right now to keep the army at bay on the request of another anon providing twitter content. If we keep pounding on communications then people have a chance to get out of town a little faster. Appearently they are shelling bits of Suez right now looking at the IRC back chatter.
Cyberwarfare on the goon squad - I like it.
I would like to be clear if the riots in Tunisia and Egypt are from "normal" people wanting freedom versus Sharia looney tunes wanting Iran part deux; not very good reporting here in the U.S.
The people that are going batshit, my understanding this is a solid 80+% of the population. The usual goon squad of Black Bloc assholes aren't present in this. These are people that are legitimate in their protests are getting clobbered by their own government. What set it off was a kids that just had it. Set himself on fire after his friend was beaten to death.
Then it went into the gutter.
So that is the mechanics of how the cybercommunity is getting back for Assange?
What does it mean, "shelling"?
AS in the Egyptian army is dropping 5 pound shells on their own civilian population because the police force has cleared out of town after the rioters burned down the police stations and a couple of places they knew people were tortured...plus a couple of other government buildings.
The anon in the channel is one of the govie techies and is giving directions from memory because there is no power and all land lines have been cut. Some of the local techs and engineers hijacked the verizon sat tower and got it up and running on a generator to keep sending tweets and maintain some basic communication in the area to keep pushing information outside of the area. Appearently the reporters, all of them have been accidentally shot.
Revenge of the nerd...the anon in channel just wants to get the fuck out of town and is shooting photos over his shoulder and getting his grandma out of town. Least that can be done is give him an extra five minutes.
Wow. Can you imagine, even three years ago this would have been impossible?
May you live in interesting times is an understatement. Apparently, I have been truly blessed!
Stay safe and keep us informed.
Looks like the roiters have captured some of the soldiers and are dousing them with gas. Appearently shooting the civilians and bombing their homes has pissed them off. 100 crispy, side of fries with that. Civilians are doing some sort of pack hunting now. The media is reporting 10's dead. The anon in channel is counting around ten on the street he just passed...
I can't wait to read the spin on this.
4chan no workie - whats going on?
Oh I'm fine, I'm just watching equipment and fault points from the country side in Canada.
Least that can be done is give him an extra five minutes to run. I'm not sure which one of the tweeters he or she is. But other anons have confirmed the back story.
http://www.google.co.uk/#sclient=psy&hl=en&prmdo=1&tbs=mbl:1&q=suez&aq=f...
The IRC channel/server was setup initially to attack Mastercard and others because the universe at large was treating Assange like a bag of dicks. So as Engineers we built it to offer a beat down on assholes pushing around one of our nerd herd. Engineering is a wonderful profession, we are paid to keep people safe. This is the only project that I've helped with I'll never be paid a dime, but it'll keep people safe, unfortunately from their own governments.
Wow, talk about concentrated ignorance!
The Suez canal is sea level all the way through. There are no locks. It doesn't require any power to "operate", it's just a strait which happens to be artificial and especially long and narrow.
All you need to keep it open is not have it be mined or have ships scuttled in it. That was a problem in 1967.
The Suez canal was built to facilitate trade at a time when oil had no commercial significance and coal was entirely consumed in the same country in which it was produced.
Really, people, try wikipedia before you post something this ignorant.
How about a current history of the Suez canal. Because the water levels have been so low in the red sea, sluces have been setup with the adjoining lakes to rise and lower the water requirements of the canal itself.
The Israeli puddle pirate stunt during the 60's isn't how the canal is managed now. Not by a long shot. That doesn't include the amount of dredging of sand, the filters to hedge unwanted biological elements from escaping from point a to b.
I agree it's not a canal system with locks and water control mechanisms with a management operation behind it run on the egyptian side of things. It's obviously a stick of butter with a side of fries.
I'll see you on the other side of 110 a barrel. BTW the wiki mentions all of this along with the engineering and management documents referenced in the article that are current to last year on the modern practices needed to keep the canal running as a LOCK (sluce system) and canal system. If the locks were not there to control water flow, the suez canal wouldn't carry a flat bottomed paddle boat.
damn. wish I had an after hours trading account. I am still overweight oil, but would like to pile on.
I am all for the fucking of china and india. Ben will have to take turns or learn to double team. This may be just the macro event we need.
Ben will print oil? I have been waiting for this!